{"id":120044,"date":"2026-11-03T00:15:09","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T23:15:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=120044"},"modified":"2026-11-02T08:11:39","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T07:11:39","slug":"escobar-iran-je-pry-pripraven-na-konec-v-centru-hormuz-a-petrodolary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/11\/03\/escobar-iran-je-pry-pripraven-na-konec-v-centru-hormuz-a-petrodolary\/","title":{"rendered":"Escobar: \u00cdr\u00e1n je pr\u00fd p\u0159ipraven na \u201ekonec\u201c \u2013 v centru Hormuz a petrodolary"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V rozhovoru ze \u0160anghaje Pepe Escobar a jeho partner, kter\u00e9ho Escobar oslovuje \u201epan Z\u201c, na\u010drt\u00e1vaj\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 eskalace nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi USA, Izraelem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Diskutuj\u00ed o mo\u017en\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 akci po americk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, zastaven\u00fdch media\u010dn\u00edch snah\u00e1ch a v\u00fdznamu Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Podle jejich vlastn\u00edch slov jsou jejich prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zalo\u017eena na kontaktech v regionu; v r\u00e1mci rozhovoru v\u0161ak nejsou nez\u00e1visle ov\u011b\u0159ena.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Pepe Escobar: \u201eDokon\u010dete pr\u00e1ci\u201c \u2013 \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fadajn\u011b vydal rozkazy, Kharg Gamble sp\u00e1chal sebevra\u017edu. Ropa se rozd\u011bluje na dolary.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/EgZmEk3zqHU?feature=oembed\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed mo\u017en\u00fdmi \u00fatoky na ostrovy<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar se odvol\u00e1v\u00e1 na hodnocen\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9ho d\u016fstojn\u00edka americk\u00fdch tajn\u00fdch slu\u017eeb Larryho Johnsona, podle kter\u00e9ho by americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da po volb\u00e1ch v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed mohla zvolit obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b riskantn\u00ed vojenskou mo\u017enost: dobyt\u00ed jednoho nebo dvou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch ostrov\u016f. Escobar jako mo\u017en\u00e9 c\u00edle uv\u00e1d\u00ed Charg, d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd p\u0159ekladi\u0161t\u011b \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy, a Larak pobl\u00ed\u017e ostrova Ke\u0161m. Domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee okupace by byla obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b udr\u017eiteln\u00e1, proto\u017ee ostrovy le\u017e\u00ed bl\u00edzko \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed a USA by tam musely o\u010dek\u00e1vat siln\u00fd odpor. Spekuluje, \u017ee jednotky by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b musely b\u00fdt vysazeny ze vzduchu, nikoli vysazeny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pepe Escobar a pan Z vykresluj\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fatok USA po volb\u00e1ch v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed jako v\u00e1\u017enou hrozbu. Escobar zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee se situace za posledn\u00ed dva nebo t\u0159i dny z\u00e1sadn\u011b nezm\u011bnila. Sp\u00ed\u0161e rostou o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee by se po volb\u00e1ch mohla nebezpe\u010dn\u011b vyhrotit. Mo\u017en\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed ohledn\u011b \u00fatok\u016f z\u00e1vis\u00ed na v\u00fdsledku voleb v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed; Escobar se v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee osud prezidenta Donalda Trumpa m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt ji\u017e zpe\u010det\u011bn, bez ohledu na v\u00fdsledek.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro jedn\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm bodem sporu je po\u0159ad\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f. Podle Escobara \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed z\u00e1stupci prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm katarsk\u00fdch medi\u00e1tor\u016f jasn\u011b dali najevo, \u017ee jadern\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka by m\u011bla b\u00fdt \u0159e\u0161ena a\u017e na konci jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. USA naopak cht\u011bj\u00ed za\u010d\u00edt s jadernou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, tvrd\u00ed. Pro Teher\u00e1n jsou v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9 \u00fastupky ze strany USA, vr\u00e1cen\u00ed zmrazen\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f a ukon\u010den\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed blok\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n spl\u0148uje sedm podm\u00ednek a Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fstane uzav\u0159en\u00fd, dokud nebudou spln\u011bny. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b zmi\u0148uje uvoln\u011bn\u00ed ropn\u00fdch sankc\u00ed a uvoln\u011bn\u00ed zmrazen\u00fdch aktiv. Teprve pot\u00e9 mohou za\u010d\u00edt jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o mo\u017en\u00e9m postupn\u00e9m znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu a o tras\u00e1ch, v\u010detn\u011b jedn\u00e9 p\u0159es Om\u00e1n. Otev\u0159en\u00ed b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed, jak navrhuje Katar, je z pohledu \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9, dokud nebudou podm\u00ednky spln\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd z\u00e1stupce Mohsen Rez\u00e1\u00ed form\u00e1ln\u011b nereagoval na dopis americk\u00e9ho viceprezidenta J. D. Vance. Rez\u00e1\u00ed ozna\u010dil dopis za pozitivn\u00ed krok, ale uvedl, \u017ee skute\u010dn\u00e1 komunikace prob\u00edh\u00e1 prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm zprost\u0159edkovatel\u016f. Escobar vysv\u011btlil, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n signalizoval USA, \u017ee samotn\u00fd dopis neposkytuje z\u00e1klad pro dal\u0161\u00ed rozhovory. Kontakty, kter\u00e9 se v Dauh\u00e1 uskute\u010d\u0148uj\u00ed, nav\u00edc prob\u00edhaj\u00ed na ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni a nereprezentuj\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hrozby a mo\u017en\u00e1 odveta<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pepe Escobar a pan Z informuj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed na\u0159\u00eddilo sv\u00fdm ozbrojen\u00fdm sil\u00e1m reagovat na jak\u00fdkoli obnoven\u00fd \u00fatok bez geografick\u00fdch omezen\u00ed. Pan Z \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee mu bylo \u0159e\u010deno, \u017ee nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce \u0159ekl vysoce postaven\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm d\u016fstojn\u00edk\u016fm, \u017ee je jejich povinnost\u00ed \u201etentokr\u00e1t dokon\u010dit pr\u00e1ci\u201c. Popisuje to jako parafr\u00e1zi, nikoli jako p\u0159\u00edmou citaci. Jako mo\u017en\u00e9 c\u00edle, pokud by byly pou\u017eity k \u00fatok\u016fm, jmenuje americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed jednotky, Izrael a americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Jord\u00e1nsku nebo Kataru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar roz\u0161i\u0159uje potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed dosah takov\u00fdch odvetn\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f i na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Evrop\u011b, v\u010detn\u011b za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v N\u011bmecku, v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b a na Sic\u00edlii. Zmi\u0148uje se o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch balistick\u00fdch a hypersonick\u00fdch raket\u00e1ch, ale neuv\u00e1d\u00ed jejich schopnosti ani neposkytuje podrobnosti. Pan Z. \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159em\u00edstil kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u00edsta a je p\u0159ipraven na \u00fatoky. Podle n\u011bj z\u00e1vis\u00ed to, zda by \u00cdr\u00e1n zam\u011b\u0159il izraelsk\u00e9 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v Dimon\u011b, na rozsahu potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f na \u00edr\u00e1nskou infrastrukturu. Pan Z. tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee pokud bude zni\u010dena \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 infrastruktura, \u00cdr\u00e1n zni\u010d\u00ed i Dimonu. Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed jsou p\u0159edpov\u011bdi a tvrzen\u00ed Pepe Escobara a pana Z.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podle Escobara jsou st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b znepokojeny, proto\u017ee by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b eskalace mohly b\u00fdt prvn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by to zas\u00e1hlo. Oba tak\u00e9 diskutuj\u00ed o prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch nazna\u010duj\u00edc\u00edch, \u017ee by se tak\u00e9 Turecko a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie mohly c\u00edtit ohro\u017eeny izraelsk\u00fdmi z\u00e1m\u011bry. Pan Z. \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee toto hodnocen\u00ed obdr\u017eel od n\u011bkoho, kdo byl p\u0159\u00edtomen na p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 sch\u016fzce. V rozhovoru nen\u00ed uvedeno \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 potvrzen\u00ed t\u00e9to skute\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Katar, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n a region\u00e1ln\u00ed spojen\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zprost\u0159edkovatelsk\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed Kataru je v rozhovoru prezentov\u00e1no jako omezen\u00e9. Escobar \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed preferuje obnoven\u00ed Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dsk\u00e9ho memoranda, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e P\u00e1kist\u00e1n by p\u016fsobil jako medi\u00e1tor nam\u00edsto Kataru. Pan Z dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee P\u00e1kist\u00e1n nyn\u00ed hraje d\u016fle\u017eitou, ale do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry neviditelnou zprost\u0159edkovatelskou roli. Domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee Trump\u016fv postoj k P\u00e1kist\u00e1nu se ochladil, proto\u017ee Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1d reprezentoval \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 pozice ve Washingtonu. Na do\u017eadov\u00e1n\u00ed up\u0159es\u0148uje, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o hodnocen\u00ed zalo\u017een\u00e9 na jeho kontaktech, a nikoli o p\u0159\u00edmou citaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pan Z. tak\u00e9 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee P\u00e1kist\u00e1n usnad\u0148uje \u010d\u00ednskou podporu \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Pepe Escobar a pan Z. hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u00fazk\u00fdch vztaz\u00edch mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem, Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou; pan Z. tak\u00e9 pova\u017euje P\u00e1kist\u00e1n za jednoho ze strategick\u00fdch partner\u016f \u00cdr\u00e1nu. \u0158\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee p\u00e1kist\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed a \u00edr\u00e1n\u0161t\u00ed partne\u0159i ozna\u010dili P\u00e1kist\u00e1n za \u201eneochv\u011bjn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edtele\u201c. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Escobar varuje, \u017ee P\u00e1kist\u00e1n by mohl \u0161patn\u00fdmi rozhodnut\u00edmi, zejm\u00e9na ohledn\u011b Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu a Talibanu, vytvo\u0159it dal\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00e1 rizika.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Partneri rovn\u011b\u017e zmi\u0148uj\u00ed situaci v Braz\u00edlii. Escobar \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee b\u00fdval\u00fd volebn\u00ed pora\u017een\u00fd, kter\u00fd uprchl z Braz\u00edlie a je vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n, opustil zemi s v\u011bdom\u00edm americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy. Domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee z\u00e1m\u011bry Trumpovy administrativy v t\u00e9to z\u00e1le\u017eitosti budou jasn\u00e9 a\u017e po volb\u00e1ch v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed. Tento p\u0159\u00edpad \u0159ad\u00ed po bok \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 krize jako dal\u0161\u00ed ud\u00e1lost, jej\u00ed\u017e d\u016fsledky pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiku z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed nejist\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a Petrodolar<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti rozhovoru se pozornost p\u0159esouv\u00e1 k v\u00fdznamu Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu. Escobar tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n chce zav\u00e9st nov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, v n\u011bm\u017e bude pr\u016fliv kontrolovat a bude moci vyb\u00edrat m\u00fdtn\u00e9 za plavbu. Podle n\u011bj by toto m\u00fdtn\u00e9 mohlo b\u00fdt hrazeno v juanech, kryptom\u011bn\u00e1ch nebo hotovosti. Interpretuje to jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed rozchod s p\u0159edchoz\u00ed rol\u00ed americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva a s \u0159\u00e1dem zalo\u017een\u00fdm na rop\u011b, kter\u00e9mu dominuje americk\u00fd dolar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pan Z. \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee konflikt nakonec zni\u010d\u00ed petrodolar. Svou p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f zakl\u00e1d\u00e1 na sv\u00e9m d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zapojen\u00ed do vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed petrodolarov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu za vl\u00e1dy americk\u00e9ho ministra financ\u00ed Simona. Pozd\u011bji svou tehdej\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e1ci pova\u017eoval za chybnou a distancoval se od n\u00ed. Pokles by mohl trvat m\u011bs\u00edce nebo roky, ale v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee za\u010dne rychle a ukon\u010d\u00ed dominanci USA. Toto je jeho hodnocen\u00ed, v\u00fdslovn\u011b formulovan\u00e9 jako osobn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Escobar pova\u017euje nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed t\u00fdden a obdob\u00ed po volb\u00e1ch do poloviny volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed za kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9. Nevid\u00ed mnoho zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak by se americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da mohla vyhnout konfrontaci, ani\u017e by byla vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako strategick\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka. Pan Z. souhlas\u00ed. Oba tak zasazuj\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalaci kolem \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Hormuzsk\u00e9 oblasti do kontextu \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch posun\u016f, ani\u017e by jist\u011b ur\u010dovali budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ud\u00e1lost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=EgZmEk3zqHU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V rozhovoru ze \u0160anghaje Pepe Escobar a jeho partner, kter\u00e9ho Escobar oslovuje \u201epan Z\u201c, na\u010drt\u00e1vaj\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":120045,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,38,1052,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120044"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120044"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120044\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}