{"id":119952,"date":"2026-11-02T00:21:47","date_gmt":"2026-11-01T23:21:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119952"},"modified":"2026-11-01T14:48:26","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T13:48:26","slug":"je-vymena-populace-do-roku-2045-nevratna-novy-model-predpoklada-remigraci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/11\/02\/je-vymena-populace-do-roku-2045-nevratna-novy-model-predpoklada-remigraci\/","title":{"rendered":"Je v\u00fdm\u011bna populace do roku 2045 nevratn\u00e1? Nov\u00fd model p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 remigraci"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bmecko do roku 2045, Rakousko do roku 2052 a \u0160v\u00fdcarsko ji\u017e v roce 2038: Nov\u00fd demografick\u00fd model vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1, kdy se p\u016fvodn\u00ed obyvatelstvo v evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch stane men\u0161inou. Institut pro remigraci tento v\u00fdvoj jasn\u011b kritizuje jako v\u00fdm\u011bnu obyvatelstva a p\u0159edstavuje alternativn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 remigrace. To ukazuje, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00fd trend nen\u00ed nezvratn\u00fd. \u010cas se v\u0161ak kr\u00e1t\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Za pouh\u00fdch 19 let by lid\u00e9 s migra\u010dn\u00edm p\u016fvodem mohli poprv\u00e9 tvo\u0159it v N\u011bmecku v\u011bt\u0161inu. Alespo\u0148 podle v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f Institutu pro remigraci (IFR), kter\u00fd p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed bod zlomu v roce 2045. V Rakousku se podle tohoto modelu o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed hranice 50 procent v roce 2052 a ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku ji\u017e v roce 2038. Nov\u00fd <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/demography-dashboard.remigrationinstitute26.workers.dev\/de\/intro\"><span dir=\"auto\">demografick\u00fd p\u0159ehled IFR<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> tak p\u0159edstavuje \u010d\u00edsla, kter\u00e1 lze ch\u00e1pat jako drsn\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed pro budouc\u00ed generace. Tento v\u00fdvoj p\u0159edstavuje hrozbu pro etnokulturn\u00ed kontinuitu evropsk\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f. IFR v\u0161ak t\u00e9to hrozb\u011b \u010del\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em remigrace.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"X P\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=true&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=2106806561297379380&amp;lang=cs&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Freport24.news%2Fbevoelkerungsaustausch-bis-2045-unumkehrbar-neues-modell-rechnet-mit-remigration-dagegen%2F&amp;sessionId=15c5090d4660b39f360e6b5533214ef7de9ab14e&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=6a3ad42b224df%3A1778106238597&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"2106806561297379380\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h3 id=\"h-der-bevolkerungsaustausch-schreitet-voran\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdm\u011bna obyvatelstva pokra\u010duje<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zm\u011bny ve struktu\u0159e populace lze ji\u017e sledovat pomoc\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch statistik. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bpb.de\/kurz-knapp\/zahlen-und-fakten\/soziale-situation-in-deutschland\/61646\/bevoelkerung-mit-migrationshintergrund\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">V N\u011bmecku<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> m\u011blo v roce 2025 migra\u010dn\u00ed p\u016fvod p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25,8 milionu lid\u00ed. To p\u0159edstavovalo 31,1 procenta populace \u017eij\u00edc\u00ed v soukrom\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnostech. U d\u011bt\u00ed mlad\u0161\u00edch p\u011bti let bylo toto \u010d\u00edslo je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, a to 42,7 procenta. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.statistik.at\/statistiken\/bevoelkerung-und-soziales\/bevoelkerung\/migration-und-einbuergerung\/migrationshintergrund\"><span dir=\"auto\">V Rakousku<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> vzrostlo z 21,4 procenta v roce 2015 na 28,2 procenta v roce 2025. V Rakousku nyn\u00ed \u017eije p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,55 milionu lid\u00ed s migra\u010dn\u00edm p\u016fvodem. Rozd\u00edly mezi v\u011bkov\u00fdmi skupinami jsou zna\u010dn\u00e9. V\u00fdsledn\u00e9 popula\u010dn\u00ed proporce v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch desetilet\u00edch v\u0161ak budou z\u00e1viset tak\u00e9 na budouc\u00ed porodnosti, migra\u010dn\u00edch vzorc\u00edch a pou\u017eit\u00fdch statistick\u00fdch definic\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Institut vytvo\u0159il vlastn\u00ed popula\u010dn\u00ed modely pro 14 evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Francie je tak\u00e9 zastoupena pomoc\u00ed extern\u00ed projekce. V\u00fdpo\u010dty mimo jin\u00e9 prom\u00edtaj\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011brnou m\u00edru imigrace a emigrace od roku 2015 do roku 2024. Tyto \u00fadaje jsou dopln\u011bny p\u0159edpoklady o porodnosti a \u00famrtnosti. Vedouc\u00ed pracovn\u00edci institutu popisuj\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu statisticky definovan\u00e9 domorod\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161iny jako v\u00fdm\u011bnu obyvatelstva. Jejich politick\u00fd c\u00edl je odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem jasn\u00fd: cht\u011bj\u00ed tento trend zvr\u00e1tit z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bnou migra\u010dn\u00ed politiky.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-die-losung-remigration\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u0158e\u0161en\u00ed: Remigrace<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Institut se k dosa\u017een\u00ed tohoto c\u00edle spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na remigraci. V alternativn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i se nov\u00e1 imigrace migrant\u016f sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed na deset procent oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00ed modelov\u00e9 \u00farovni. Sou\u010dasn\u011b se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 dodate\u010dn\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00ed emigrace jednoho procenta p\u016fvodn\u011b zaznamenan\u00e9 populace migrant\u016f. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/demography-dashboard.remigrationinstitute26.workers.dev\/de\/countries\/germany\"><span dir=\"auto\">V p\u0159epo\u010dtu<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> na n\u011bmeckou populaci to odpov\u00edd\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 259 000 dal\u0161\u00edm emigrant\u016fm ro\u010dn\u011b. Podle modelu by tak pod\u00edl migrant\u016f klesl pod p\u011bt procent do roku 2111, v Rakousku do roku 2091 a ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku do roku 2088. Institut vn\u00edm\u00e1 tento protiv\u00fdpo\u010det jako argument pro kombinaci imigra\u010dn\u00edch omezen\u00ed s komplexn\u00ed remigra\u010dn\u00ed politikou. Samotn\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det populace v\u0161ak nem\u016f\u017ee odpov\u011bd\u011bt na ot\u00e1zku, jak\u00e1 pr\u00e1vn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed by byla nezbytn\u00e1 a jak by mohla b\u00fdt provedena.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/demography-dashboard.remigrationinstitute26.workers.dev\/de\/methodology\/countries\/germany\"><span dir=\"auto\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b N\u011bmecka pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 institut jako z\u00e1klad<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> pro v\u00fdpo\u010det \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed skupiny obyvatelstva s migra\u010dn\u00edm p\u016fvodem porodnost cizinc\u016f . D\u011bti se po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed jako sou\u010d\u00e1st skupiny sv\u00e9 matky; sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 rodiny se nezaznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed odd\u011blen\u011b. Statisticky skupina s migra\u010dn\u00edm p\u016fvodem zahrnuje tak\u00e9 naturalizovan\u00e9 ob\u010dany, etnick\u00e9 n\u011bmeck\u00e9 repatrianty a evropsk\u00e9 imigranty. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto \u00fadaj\u016f institut vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1, jak se budou popula\u010dn\u00ed proporce vyv\u00edjet v budouc\u00edch generac\u00edch a jak\u00fd rozd\u00edl by p\u0159inesla rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 remigrace.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-was-tun-jeder-kann-aktiv-werden\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Co se d\u00e1 d\u011blat? Ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee jednat<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Interaktivn\u00ed dashboard porovn\u00e1v\u00e1 dv\u011b z\u00e1sadn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00e9 v\u00fdvojov\u00e9 cesty. Ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i zachov\u00e1n\u00ed status quo p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed pod\u00edl migrant\u016f v N\u011bmecku 50 procent ji\u017e v roce 2045. Ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i remigrace klesne pod p\u011bt procent do roku 2111. Odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed tohoto demografick\u00e9ho bodu zlomu v\u0161ak v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nen\u00ed automatick\u00e9, jak dashboard varuje: Lid\u00e9 mus\u00ed jednat. Podstr\u00e1nka \u201e <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/demography-dashboard.remigrationinstitute26.workers.dev\/de\/what-to-do\"><span dir=\"auto\">Co d\u011blat?<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> \u201c se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 osobn\u00ed politickou anga\u017eovanost\u00ed, oblast\u00ed, do kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159isp\u011bt ka\u017ed\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">Zjist\u011bte, kter\u00e9 strany a hnut\u00ed ve va\u0161\u00ed zemi se stav\u00ed proti masov\u00e9 imigraci. Nadneste toto t\u00e9ma ve sv\u00e9m osobn\u00edm kruhu, na ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch akc\u00edch a v politick\u00fdch debat\u00e1ch a vyu\u017eijte demokratick\u00e9 cesty, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1te k dispozici. Remigrace se stane sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed politick\u00e9 agendy pouze tehdy, pokud se za ni ob\u010dan\u00e9 budou ve\u0159ejn\u011b zasazovat.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Sd\u00edlen\u00ed a distribuce dashboardu se tak\u00e9 doporu\u010duje, proto\u017ee mnoho lid\u00ed se s demografick\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem Evropy prezentovan\u00fdm v takov\u00e9mto stavu je\u0161t\u011b nesetkalo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>N\u011bmecko do roku 2045, Rakousko do roku 2052 a \u0160v\u00fdcarsko ji\u017e v roce 2038: Nov\u00fd&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[84,2284,2228],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119952"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119952"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119952\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119952"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}