{"id":119725,"date":"2026-10-30T00:18:43","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T23:18:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119725"},"modified":"2026-10-29T12:30:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T11:30:07","slug":"nato-se-blizi-ke-kaliningradu-a-ignoruje-jadernou-hrozbu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/30\/nato-se-blizi-ke-kaliningradu-a-ignoruje-jadernou-hrozbu\/","title":{"rendered":"NATO se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed ke Kaliningradu a ignoruje jadernou hrozbu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jak se aliance st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159ibli\u017euje k rusk\u00e9 exkl\u00e1v\u011b u Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, nad\u00e1le podce\u0148uje \u201e\u010derven\u00e9 linie\u201c Moskvy.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky byla exkl\u00e1va Z\u00e1padn\u00edho Berl\u00edna, izolovan\u00e1 v komunistick\u00e9m v\u00fdchodn\u00edm N\u011bmecku, pova\u017eov\u00e1na za jedno z nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch ohnisek konfliktu mezi Sov\u011btsk\u00fdm svazem a Z\u00e1padem. Blok\u00e1da pozemn\u00edch cest do m\u011bsta, kterou v letech 1948\/49 zavedl Josif Stalin, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 spustila novou v\u00e1lku \u2013 dokud se USA a Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii nepoda\u0159ilo z\u00e1sobovat obyvatelstvo letecky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je politov\u00e1n\u00edhodn\u00e9, i kdy\u017e ne zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u016fdci nezohlednili tuto historickou zku\u0161enost, kdy\u017e roz\u0161i\u0159ovali NATO o Polsko a Litvu, a t\u00edm izolovali ruskou exkl\u00e1vu Kaliningrad (d\u0159\u00edve K\u00f6nigsberg ve V\u00fdchodn\u00edm Prusku) za liniemi NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Z\u00e1padn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed analytici dnes \u010dasto ozna\u010duj\u00ed \u201eSuwalsk\u00fd pr\u016flom\u201c v severov\u00fdchodn\u00edm Polsku \u2013 nach\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed se mezi Kaliningradem a rusk\u00fdm spojencem B\u011bloruskem \u2013 za nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bod v eskalaci konfrontace mezi Ruskem a NATO. Oby\u010dejn\u011b opom\u00edjej\u00ed fakt, \u017ee tuto situaci zp\u016fsobilo NATO \u2013 a nikoli Rusko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kaliningradsk\u00e1 akutn\u00ed strategick\u00e1 zranitelnost je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d jsou rostouc\u00ed obavy, \u017ee by Rusko mohlo \u201eotestovat\u201c NATO okupac\u00ed estonsk\u00e9ho pohrani\u010dn\u00edho m\u011bsta Narva, zcela neopodstatn\u011bn\u00e9. Rusk\u00e1 invaze na \u00fazem\u00ed NATO by nevyhnuteln\u011b vedla k blok\u00e1d\u011b Kaliningradu ze strany NATO na sou\u0161i i na mo\u0159i. Jak mi poznamenal jeden rusk\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed expert: \u201eV\u011b\u0159\u00ed Z\u00e1pad v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, \u017ee Putin nebo kter\u00fdkoli jin\u00fd p\u0159edn\u00ed rusk\u00fd politik by riskoval ztr\u00e1tu Kaliningradu jen proto, aby z\u00edskal Narvu, nebo \u017ee by zah\u00e1jil jadernou v\u00e1lku, aby zachr\u00e1nil Kaliningrad?\u201c Nebo, jak to vyj\u00e1d\u0159il b\u00fdval\u00fd loty\u0161sk\u00fd ministr obrany Artis Pabriks \u2013 nediplomaticky, ale v\u00fdsti\u017en\u011b: \u201eV\u017edy jsme p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali, \u017ee Rusko by v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b takov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky uzav\u0159elo Suvalsk\u00fd koridor. Ale sotva zva\u017eujeme mo\u017enost, \u017ee by [Kaliningrad] mohl b\u00fdt v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b rusk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku prvn\u00edm [kter\u00fd by obsadily s\u00edly NATO]. A pak by u\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd Suvalsk\u00fd koridor neexistoval.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Kaliningrad je velitelstv\u00edm rusk\u00e9 Baltsk\u00e9 flotily a z\u00e1kladnou pro rusk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 rakety st\u0159edn\u00edho doletu. Nav\u00edc je mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b uznan\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm \u00fazem\u00edm. Pro ilustraci na analogii s USA: bylo by to jako Pearl Harbor izolovan\u00fd uprost\u0159ed \u00fazem\u00ed ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho \u010c\u00ednou. Postupn\u00e9 roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO od roku 1989 \u2013 do v\u00fdchodn\u00edho N\u011bmecka, Polska, pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, \u0160v\u00e9dska a Finska \u2013 tak\u00e9 prom\u011bnilo Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e ve \u201evnitrozemskou vodn\u00ed cestu NATO\u201c. Sf\u00e9ra vlivu Moskvy, kter\u00e1 se b\u011bhem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky rozkl\u00e1dala p\u0159es cel\u00e9 v\u00fdchodn\u00ed a ji\u017en\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, se nyn\u00ed zmen\u0161ila na Kaliningrad a Petrohrad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prezident Vladimir Putin a rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da ned\u00e1vno prohl\u00e1sili, \u017ee Rusko v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b blok\u00e1dy Kaliningradu ze strany NATO zareaguje jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi; ka\u017ed\u00fd z\u00e1stupce rusk\u00e9ho establishmentu, se kter\u00fdm jsem hovo\u0159il, vyj\u00e1d\u0159il podobn\u00fd n\u00e1zor. Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed tajemn\u00edk NATO Mark Rutte reagoval s tou samolibou a spokojenou non\u0161alanc\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se stala jeho pozn\u00e1vac\u00edm znamen\u00edm: \u0159ekl, \u017ee to \u201enebere v\u00e1\u017en\u011b\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tuto hrozbu je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba br\u00e1t v\u00e1\u017en\u011b. Moskva by blok\u00e1du NATO pova\u017eovala za p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd akt. D\u00e1le je t\u0159eba zv\u00e1\u017eit z\u00e1sadn\u00ed bod: vzhledem k velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy v\u00e1zan\u00e9 na Ukrajin\u011b postr\u00e1d\u00e1 Rusko konven\u010dn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 prost\u0159edky k obran\u011b Kaliningradu p\u0159ed pozemn\u00edm \u00fatokem \u2013 nebo k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed \u00fatoku z B\u011bloruska, por\u00e1\u017ece polsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy a prolomen\u00ed obl\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed. P\u0159ed invaz\u00ed na Ukrajinu m\u011bl rusk\u00fd 11. arm\u00e1dn\u00ed sbor um\u00edst\u011bn\u00fd v Kaliningradu nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edlu 12 000 a\u017e 18 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f, podporovan\u00fdch brig\u00e1dou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty. Zpr\u00e1vy v\u0161ak nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bchto voj\u00e1k\u016f byla p\u0159esunuta na Ukrajinu \u2013 a tam zdecimov\u00e1na. Polsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da m\u00e1 100 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f v aktivn\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b a 40 000 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edk\u016f a v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b rychle roz\u0161i\u0159uje svou palebnou s\u00edlu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 Centrum pro n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed anal\u00fdzy si klade ot\u00e1zku: \u201eKaliningrad: Nedobytn\u00e1 pevnost, nebo rusk\u00e9 Alamo?\u201c Mezi z\u00e1stupci rusk\u00e9ho establishmentu, se kter\u00fdmi jsem hovo\u0159il, p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u00e1zor, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b blok\u00e1dy NATO by Rusko okam\u017eit\u011b vydalo jadern\u00e9 ultim\u00e1tum \u2013 a pokud by se NATO nevzdalo, do n\u011bkolika dn\u016f by ho provedlo.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee se zd\u00e1t t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nep\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9, \u017ee by st\u00e1ty NATO mohly b\u00fdt tak bezohledn\u00e9 a akceptovat obrovsk\u00e1 rizika blok\u00e1dy Kaliningradu; p\u0159esto ji\u017e do\u0161lo k dv\u011bma pokus\u016fm v tomto sm\u011bru. V \u010dervnu 2022 Litva ozn\u00e1mila \u2013 v rozporu s p\u0159edchoz\u00ed dohodou s Ruskem \u2013 \u017ee zak\u00e1\u017ee tranzit zbo\u017e\u00ed podl\u00e9haj\u00edc\u00edho sankc\u00edm Evropsk\u00e9 unie do Kaliningradu. Pat\u0159ila mezi n\u011b ropa, uhl\u00ed, kovy, stavebn\u00ed materi\u00e1ly a \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00e9 technologie \u2013 podle kaliningradsk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy to p\u0159edstavovalo zhruba polovinu dovozn\u00edch pot\u0159eb exkl\u00e1vy. Po ostr\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch hrozb\u00e1ch odvety EU ustoupila a prohl\u00e1sila, \u017ee sankce se nebudou vztahovat na \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed dopravu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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V \u010dervnu 2025 \u0160v\u00e9dsko ozn\u00e1milo, \u017ee bude prov\u00e1d\u011bt inspekce lod\u00ed pat\u0159\u00edc\u00edch k rusk\u00e9 tzv. \u201est\u00ednov\u00e9 flotile\u201c nejen ve \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00fdch teritori\u00e1ln\u00edch vod\u00e1ch, ale tak\u00e9 ve \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00e9 v\u00fdlu\u010dn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b. Spolu se z\u00f3nami t\u0159\u00ed pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f se to t\u00fdk\u00e1 cel\u00e9ho st\u0159edn\u00edho Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e; \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00e9 ozn\u00e1men\u00ed tak hrozilo blok\u00e1dou Petrohradu a izolac\u00ed Kaliningradu po mo\u0159i.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160v\u00e9dsko a pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v\u0161ak ti\u0161e ustoupily pot\u00e9, co Rusko pohrozilo vojenskou intervenc\u00ed na ochranu lod\u00ed, a vyslaly rusk\u00fd st\u00edha\u010d, aby zabr\u00e1nily estonsk\u00e9mu hl\u00eddkov\u00e9mu \u010dlunu vstoupit na tanker. Nen\u00ed proto divu, \u017ee Moskva je extr\u00e9mn\u011b citliv\u00e1 na mo\u017enost obnoven\u00ed t\u00e9to strategie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Radek Sikorski minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc prohl\u00e1sil: \u201eNem\u011bli bychom omezovat na\u0161i konfrontaci s Ruskem pouze na Ukrajinu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eByl jsem v Loty\u0161sku teprve p\u0159ed t\u0159emi dny na polsk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u011b \u2013 m\u00e1me tam tankovou rotu \u2013 a\u2026 na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed voj\u00e1ci. Kaliningradskou enkl\u00e1vu velmi pozorn\u011b sledujeme, jak si dok\u00e1\u017eete p\u0159edstavit. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed voj\u00e1ci tam nejsou,\u201c \u0159ekl Sikorski. \u201eNavrhuji, abychom na na\u0161\u00ed stran\u011b provedli tak agresivn\u00ed man\u00e9vry, \u017ee\u2026 [Putin] si nebude jist\u00fd, jak budeme jednat \u2013 a bude nucen st\u00e1hnout vojska z Ukrajiny.\u201c Ironi\u00ed tohoto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed je, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b v okam\u017eiku, kdy Sikorski tvrdil, \u017ee Rusko je v Pobalt\u00ed tak slab\u00e9, \u017ee mu NATO m\u016f\u017ee beztrestn\u011b vyhro\u017eovat, ostatn\u00ed pol\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 varovali p\u0159ed hroz\u00edc\u00edm rusk\u00fdm \u00fatokem na NATO \u2013 jeho\u017e c\u00edlem bylo \u201eotestovat\u201c alianci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k slep\u00e9 bezohlednosti a nezodpov\u011bdnosti takov\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed a \u010din\u016f je spr\u00e1vn\u00e9, \u017ee Rusko dalo jednozna\u010dn\u011b najevo, jak\u00e9 by byly d\u016fsledky, kdyby st\u00e1ty NATO tyto hrozby skute\u010dn\u011b uvedly do praxe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici \u010dasto takov\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 obavy odm\u00edtaj\u00ed jako \u201eparanoiu\u201c nebo jako v\u00fdsledek c\u00edlen\u00e9 manipulace rusk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy; kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 zamy\u0161len\u00ed nad jejich vlastn\u00edm postojem by jim v\u0161ak m\u011blo uk\u00e1zat, jak fale\u0161n\u00e9 a pokryteck\u00e9 toto obvin\u011bn\u00ed je.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed apar\u00e1t, kter\u00fd propad\u00e1 hysterii, jakmile nad Amerikou p\u0159elet\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd bal\u00f3n, sotva m\u016f\u017ee obvi\u0148ovat ostatn\u00ed z paranoie \u2013 stejn\u011b jako evrop\u0161t\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edci, kte\u0159\u00ed se nechaj\u00ed tak znepokojit n\u011bkolika drobn\u00fdmi \u017eh\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdmi \u00fatoky, \u017ee prohl\u00e1s\u00ed: \u201eU\u017e jsme ve v\u00e1lce s Ruskem.\u201c Pokud by Z\u00e1pad zablokoval Kaliningrad, mohl by se nau\u010dit, jak vypad\u00e1 skute\u010dn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka s Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve star\u00fdch alegorick\u00fdch zobrazen\u00edch Prudence (Prudentia) je \u010dasto zobrazov\u00e1na s v ruce zrcadlo. To symbolizuje jej\u00ed schopnost sebereflexe a sebepozn\u00e1n\u00ed, co\u017e n\u00e1sledn\u011b vede k poko\u0159e a lep\u0161\u00edmu porozum\u011bn\u00ed druh\u00fdm. Bylo by v z\u00e1jmu n\u00e1s v\u0161ech, kdyby evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy tr\u00e1vily m\u00e9n\u011b \u010dasu hlasit\u00fdm provokov\u00e1n\u00edm Ruska a m\u00edsto toho v\u011bnovaly v\u00edce \u010dasu kritick\u00e9mu zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00edch \u010din\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Anatol Lieven<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jak se aliance st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159ibli\u017euje k rusk\u00e9 exkl\u00e1v\u011b u Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, nad\u00e1le podce\u0148uje \u201e\u010derven\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119726,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3416,1422,39,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119725"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119725"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":119727,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119725\/revisions\/119727"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}