{"id":119717,"date":"2026-10-30T00:12:16","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T23:12:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119717"},"modified":"2026-10-29T13:01:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T12:01:32","slug":"andrew-korybko-jaky-je-skutecny-vyznam-putinovy-nedavne-predpovedi-o-nevyhnutelnem-kolapsu-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/30\/andrew-korybko-jaky-je-skutecny-vyznam-putinovy-nedavne-predpovedi-o-nevyhnutelnem-kolapsu-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Jak\u00fd je skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdznam Putinovy \u200b\u200bned\u00e1vn\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi o nevyhnuteln\u00e9m kolapsu EU?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 nen\u00ed, zda tomu skute\u010dn\u011b v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, ale zda jeho ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed a zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby politizuj\u00ed sv\u00e1 hodnocen\u00ed tohoto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e tak, aby odpov\u00eddala tomu, co si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee chce sly\u0161et, co\u017e by bylo v rozporu s t\u00edm, co d\u0159\u00edve \u0159ekl o pot\u0159eb\u011b opustit zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Putin na v\u00fdro\u010dn\u00edm summitu Valdajsk\u00e9ho klubu za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna <\/span>p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl <\/span><\/a>, \u017ee \u201ese rozpadnou bez na\u0161\u00ed pomoci\u201c, v reakci na ot\u00e1zku, zda by Rusko \u201em\u011blo prost\u011b rozb\u00edt [EU], aby bylo snaz\u0161\u00ed jednat s jednotliv\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi\u201c, vzhledem k z\u00e1kaz\u016fm bloku budovat vazby s Ruskem. Tato p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f byla mnoha \u201e <\/span>nerusk\u00fdmi prorusy <\/span><\/a>\u201c (NRPR) v\u0161eobecn\u011b interpretov\u00e1na jako v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1, a to navzdory bezstarostn\u00e9mu kontextu, v n\u011bm\u017e byla zjevn\u011b kladena, a to kv\u016fli zbo\u017en\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto lid\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putinova slova jsou br\u00e1na jako evangelium, kdykoli se shoduj\u00ed s t\u00edm, co si mnoho NRPR p\u0159eje, aby se stalo, a ledabyle odm\u00edt\u00e1na jako sou\u010d\u00e1st \u201e5D \u0161achov\u00e9ho mistrovsk\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nu\u201c, jak \u201epsychicky vyv\u00e9st\u201c sv\u00e9 oponenty z m\u00edry, kdykoli jdou proti jejich o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jeho <\/span>let pov\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9ho chv\u00e1len\u00ed Izraele <\/span><\/a>. Pokud jde o konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklad rozpadu EU, existuj\u00ed objektivn\u00ed d\u016fvody, pro\u010d seri\u00f3zn\u00ed lid\u00e9 o tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed, ale Putin\u016fv odkaz na n\u011bj ipso facto neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee tomu s\u00e1m skute\u010dn\u011b v\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin p\u0159edstavuje zemi, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edstavuje pro Z\u00e1pad nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdzvu kv\u016fli jej\u00ed z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b, je\u017e se kvalitativn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed od ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy, kterou p\u0159edstavuje \u010c\u00edna. Zat\u00edmco \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst p\u0159edstavuje dlouhodobou syst\u00e9movou v\u00fdzvu, komplexn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1, finan\u010dn\u00ed a dodavatelsk\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost \u010c\u00edny na Z\u00e1pad\u011b <\/span>omezuje m\u00edru, do jak\u00e9 by se takov\u00e1 v\u00fdzva mohla projevit <\/span><\/a>, na rozd\u00edl od strategick\u00e9 autonomie, kter\u00e1 Rusku umo\u017e\u0148uje v\u00e9st jeho dlouhodobou z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku se Z\u00e1padem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin si je toho v\u011bdom, stejn\u011b jako zp\u016fsobu, jak\u00fdm jeho slova interpretuj\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy i spole\u010dnosti. Nelze proto br\u00e1t jako samoz\u0159ejmost, \u017ee sv\u00fdm dramatick\u00fdm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm v\u017edy v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, proto\u017ee mohou b\u00fdt sd\u00edlena z postrann\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f, jako je ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto publika. Aby bylo jasno, neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee Putin l\u017ee, kdy\u017e p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee se EU nevyhnuteln\u011b zhrout\u00ed, proto\u017ee by tomuto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i mohl p\u0159isoudit ur\u010ditou v\u011brohodnost, jen \u017ee za t\u00edm m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u011bco v\u00edc ne\u017e jen to.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u0161ak nen\u00ed to, \u010demu v\u011b\u0159\u00ed s\u00e1m Putin, ale to, zda jeho ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed a zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby formuj\u00ed sv\u00e1 hodnocen\u00ed tohoto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e tak, aby odpov\u00eddalo tomu, co si (a\u0165 u\u017e spr\u00e1vn\u011b, \u010di nespr\u00e1vn\u011b) mysl\u00ed, \u017ee je to, \u010demu on v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, a tedy co si mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159eje. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee rusk\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed medi\u00e1ln\u00ed ekosyst\u00e9m bude sv\u00e9mu publiku takov\u00fd obraz prezentovat, ale pokud jej v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 instituce Putinovi p\u0159edlo\u017e\u00ed z myln\u00e9 touhy pot\u011b\u0161it ho, pak by to mohlo zp\u016fsobit probl\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sobeck\u00e1 politizace ji\u017e tak problematick\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch zp\u011btnovazebn\u00edch smy\u010dek, kter\u00e9 jsou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za s\u00e9rii ne\u00fasp\u011bch\u016f v zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice zem\u011b v r\u00e1mci <\/span>neoreaganovsk\u00e9 doktr\u00edny Trumpa 2.0 <\/span><\/a>, by mohla v\u00e9st k formulov\u00e1n\u00ed ne\u00fa\u010dinn\u00fdch politik. Pokud \u00fadajn\u011b nevyhnuteln\u00fd kolaps EU poslou\u017e\u00ed jako p\u0159edpoklad pro formulov\u00e1n\u00ed politiky v\u016f\u010di Evrop\u011b, pak by Rusko mohlo nejen ztratit p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, ale tento chybn\u00fd \u00fasudek by mohl v\u00e9st k chyb\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku zhor\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eitost Putinovy \u200b\u200bp\u0159edpov\u011bdi tedy nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, zda j\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, ale v tom, zda jeho ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed a zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby politizuj\u00ed sv\u00e1 hodnocen\u00ed tohoto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e tak, aby odpov\u00eddala tomu, co si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee chce sly\u0161et, co\u017e by bylo v rozporu s t\u00edm, co d\u0159\u00edve \u0159ekl na Valdajov\u011b akci. <\/span>V\u00fdslovn\u011b varoval <\/span><\/a>p\u0159ed <\/span>zbo\u017en\u00fdm p\u0159\u00e1n\u00edm <\/span><\/a>a vyzval k \u201erealistick\u00e9mu hodnocen\u00ed\u201c. Na rozd\u00edl od toho, co \u0159ekl o EU, nen\u00ed d\u016fvod, pro\u010d tato slova nebrat doslova, a doufejme, \u017ee ti, kte\u0159\u00ed to pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed, tak u\u010din\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 nen\u00ed, zda tomu skute\u010dn\u011b v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, ale zda jeho ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed a zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby politizuj\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119718,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[41,371,102,1402],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119717"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119717"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119717\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}