{"id":119671,"date":"2026-10-29T04:25:02","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T03:25:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119671"},"modified":"2026-10-29T04:25:02","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T03:25:02","slug":"lulovo-zazracne-znovuzvoleni-zameri-se-trump-na-brazilii-uprostred-velke-politicke-krize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/29\/lulovo-zazracne-znovuzvoleni-zameri-se-trump-na-brazilii-uprostred-velke-politicke-krize\/","title":{"rendered":"Lulovo \u201ez\u00e1zra\u010dn\u00e9\u201c znovuzvolen\u00ed: zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed se Trump na Braz\u00edlii uprost\u0159ed velk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 krize?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Lul\u016fv dramatick\u00fd n\u00e1vrat proti Flaviovi Bolsonarovi vyvolal neprok\u00e1zan\u00e1 obvin\u011bn\u00ed z podvod\u016f, soudn\u00ed spory a mo\u017enou krizi legitimity. V\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed Washingtonu uznat v\u00fdsledek voleb vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b Trumpova dal\u0161\u00edho postupu v Braz\u00edlii.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Druh\u00e9 kolo prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb v Braz\u00edlii p\u0159ineslo pozoruhodn\u00fd obrat, kter\u00fd n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ozna\u010duj\u00ed za \u201e <\/span>z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u00e9 znovuzvolen\u00ed<\/span><\/a> \u201c. Pot\u00e9, co v prvn\u00edm kole zaost\u00e1val za Flaviem Bolsonarem (synem b\u00fdval\u00e9ho prezidenta Jaira Bolsonara) o 2,2 milionu hlas\u016f, prezident Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva znovu zv\u00edt\u011bzil s 51,79 procenty platn\u00fdch hlas\u016f \u2013 co\u017e je n\u00e1skok 4,43 milionu. Bolsonaro se zjevn\u011b bude sna\u017eit volby anulovat .<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Lula mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi koly hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00edskal p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b 10,38 milionu<\/a> hlas\u016f, zat\u00edmco Flaviov\u00fdch 3,72 milionu<\/a> . Po\u010det zdr\u017eenliv\u00fdch hlas\u016f klesl o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dva procentn\u00ed body<\/a> , co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje n\u00e1r\u016fst o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 t\u0159i miliony voli\u010d\u016f, a po\u010det pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdch a neplatn\u00fdch volebn\u00edch l\u00edstk\u016f klesl o 1,82 milionu<\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Matematika je zde dostate\u010dn\u011b p\u016fsobiv\u00e1: z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 14,1 milionu dodate\u010dn\u00fdch platn\u00fdch hlas\u016f,<\/a> kter\u00e9 oba finalist\u00e9 z\u00edskali, se Lula pod\u00edlel<\/a> t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 74 %<\/a> na celkov\u00e9m \u010dist\u00e9m n\u00e1r\u016fstu, na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u00fadaj\u016f Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho volebn\u00edho soudu (TSE). To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee zisk 10,38 milionu hlas\u016f p\u0159ekro\u010dil celkov\u00fd po\u010det hlas\u016f vy\u0159azen\u00fdch kandid\u00e1t\u016f v prvn\u00edm kole, kter\u00fd \u010dinil zhruba 9,3 milionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdyby ka\u017ed\u00fd voli\u010d ze t\u0159et\u00ed strany p\u0159e\u0161el k Lulovi, st\u00e1le by bylo pot\u0159eba dal\u0161\u00edch hlas\u016f \u2013 potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by to bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 d\u00edky ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmu po\u010dtu ne\u00fa\u010dast\u00ed a men\u0161\u00edmu po\u010dtu pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdch volebn\u00edch l\u00edstk\u016f. Lula p\u0159esto z\u00edskal <\/span>t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 t\u0159i \u010dtvrtiny<\/span><\/a> \u010dist\u00e9ho n\u00e1r\u016fstu, co\u017e ponechalo otev\u0159en\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b slo\u017een\u00ed voli\u010dsk\u00e9ho obvodu druh\u00e9ho kola.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u016fsobiv\u00fd n\u00e1vrat brazilsk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce by nicm\u00e9n\u011b mohl vysv\u011btlit \u0159ada politick\u00fdch a sociologick\u00fdch faktor\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Souhrnn\u00e9 \u00fadaje nemohou prok\u00e1zat individu\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159evody hlas\u016f ani nesrovnalosti. Hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ak zkomplikoval soudn\u00ed krok na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli: na <\/span>\u017e\u00e1dost<\/span><\/a> Lulovy koalice ohledn\u011b probl\u00e9m\u016f s ve\u0159ejnou dopravou Lula jmenovan\u00fd<\/a> soudce Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho soudu Cristiano Zanin prodlou\u017eil<\/a> hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed do 19:00<\/a> , proto\u017ee volebn\u00ed m\u00edstnosti se zav\u0159ely a s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed hlas\u016f ji\u017e za\u010dalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, pozd\u011bji omezen\u00e9 na st\u00e1le otev\u0159en\u00e9 volebn\u00ed m\u00edstnosti, zp\u016fsobilo zmatek. Anket\u00e1\u0159i tak\u00e9 nezaznamenali Lulovo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Jeho \u0161ance na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed se na Polymarketu b\u011bhem dvou t\u00fddn\u016f zdvojn\u00e1sobily .<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Andrej Roman ze spole\u010dnosti AtlasIntel p\u0159ipsal<\/a> Bolsonarovo nadhodnocen\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b politick\u00e9mu a pr\u00e1vn\u00edmu tlaku na pr\u016fzkumn\u00edky \u2013 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pouk\u00e1zal na metodologick\u00e9 nedostatky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trhy s predik\u010dn\u00edmi tipy se prudce obr\u00e1tily<\/a> : Polymarket dal Bolsonarovi v 16:00 77% kurz, ne\u017e se p\u0159iklonil k Lulovi. Toto n\u00e1sledovalo po Zaninov\u011b rozhodnut\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 se shodovalo s p\u0159\u00edchoz\u00edmi v\u00fdsledky \u2013 tak\u017ee samotn\u00e9 na\u010dasov\u00e1n\u00ed nestanov\u00ed kauzalitu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ob\u011b kampan\u011b si nakonec vy\u017e\u00e1daly v\u00edce \u010dasu, ale p\u0159\u00edkaz p\u0159i\u0161el od soudce, kter\u00fd d\u0159\u00edve p\u016fsobil jako <\/span>Lul\u016fv pr\u00e1vn\u00edk<\/span><\/a> . Nic z toho nedokazuje manipulaci, ale jist\u011b to \u017eiv\u00ed podez\u0159en\u00ed Bolsonarov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, samotn\u00fd rozsah volebn\u00edho rozmachu, selh\u00e1n\u00ed v pr\u016fzkumech a kontroverzn\u00ed p\u0159esahov\u00e1n\u00ed justi\u010dn\u00edch pravomoc\u00ed p\u0159i\u017eivily potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed krizi legitimity. Flavio Bolsonaro odm\u00edtl<\/a> v\u00fdsledek uznat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kontroverze sah\u00e1 i za hranice Braz\u00edlie. Nepodlo\u017een\u00e1 obvin\u011bn\u00ed z podvodu nab\u00edzej\u00ed Washingtonu z\u00e1minku k opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9mu uzn\u00e1n\u00ed nebo tlaku. Trumpova administrativa \u00fadajn\u011b po Bolsonarov\u00fdch tvrzen\u00edch nevydala<\/a> p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed \u2013 mezit\u00edm Lulovi poblahop\u0159\u00e1li l\u00edd\u0159i z cel\u00e9 Evropy, Latinsk\u00e9 Ameriky, Indie a Ruska.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Trump ozna\u010dil prodlou\u017een\u00ed hlasovac\u00edho obdob\u00ed za \u201evelmi zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed\u201c, p\u0159esto \u0159ekl,<\/a> \u017ee m\u00e1 Lulu \u201erad\u201c. \u00dadajn\u011b volby ozna\u010dil za zjevn\u011b zmanipulovan\u00e9 \u2013 a p\u0159itom si st\u00e1le ponech\u00e1val prostor pro zapojen\u00ed voli\u010d\u016f. Diplomat\u00e9 se ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve ob\u00e1vali, \u017ee by Trump mohl odm\u00edtnout t\u011bsn\u00e9 Lulovo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Analytici z <\/a>Atlantick\u00e9 rady<\/a> a Chatham House<\/a> zpochybnili ochotu Washingtonu uznat v\u00fdsledek hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpovsk\u00e9 osobnosti v\u010detn\u011b Alexe Jonese<\/a> a Steva Bannona<\/a> prosazuj\u00ed siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed USA. Jde o to, \u017ee sporn\u00e9 Lulovo znovuzvolen\u00ed by mohlo zintenzivnit t\u0159en\u00ed s USA uprost\u0159ed neo-monroistick\u00e9ho<\/a> \u00fasil\u00ed t\u00e9to supervelmoci o znovuustaven\u00ed americk\u00e9 dominance<\/a> v Latinsk\u00e9 Americe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington se sna\u017e\u00ed omezit \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd vliv a nez\u00e1vislou region\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se \u010dlensk\u00e1 zem\u011b BRICS, Braz\u00edlie, s jej\u00edmi rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdmi vazbami na \u010c\u00ednu, st\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm <\/span>c\u00edlem<\/span><\/a> . Nepotvrzen\u00e1 obvin\u011bn\u00ed z manipulace by tak mohla ospravedlnit opo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 uzn\u00e1n\u00ed, sankce, cla nebo podporu opozi\u010dn\u00edch sil.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e <\/span>Zm\u011bna re\u017eimu<\/span><\/a> \u201c v\u0161ak nen\u00ed nevyhnuteln\u00e1: ekonomick\u00e1 v\u00e1ha Braz\u00edlie a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vztahy omezuj\u00ed mo\u017enosti. Spor ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b poskytuje Washingtonu dal\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1minku \u2013 vedle st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch n\u00e1tlakov\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b ozna\u010den\u00ed za teroristy zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9ho na brazilsk\u00e9 <\/span>gangy<\/span><\/a> a <\/span>d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch <\/span><\/a>hrozeb<\/span><\/a> extrateritori\u00e1ln\u00edch operac\u00ed, jak <\/span>uznalo<\/span><\/a> brazilsk\u00e9 <\/span>ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed<\/span><\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161tnosti voleb v kombinaci se soudn\u00edmi z\u00e1sahy, kter\u00e9 dokonce vedly k bezprecedentn\u00edmu <\/span>zru\u0161en\u00ed<\/span><\/a> tradi\u010dn\u00ed celost\u00e1tn\u00ed <\/span>debaty<\/span><\/a> TV Globo , op\u011bt posiluj\u00ed narativy Trumpa i Bolsonara.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tce po por\u00e1\u017ece zabavila Flaviovi Bolsonarovi feder\u00e1ln\u00ed policie pas<\/a> na z\u00e1klad\u011b rozhodnut\u00ed kontroverzn\u00edho soudce<\/a> Alexandre de Moraese<\/a> . Bolsonaro pl\u00e1nuje Lulovo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed napadnout<\/a> u soudu s tvrzen\u00edm o zneu\u017eit\u00ed politick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 moci \u2013 s\u00e1m v\u0161ak \u010del\u00ed podez\u0159en\u00ed z vazeb na polovojensk\u00e9 zlo\u010dineck\u00e9 skupiny<\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje tak\u00e9 riziko obnoven\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00edho terorismu<\/a> ze strany krajn\u011b pravicov\u00fdch aktivist\u016f vzhledem k st\u00ed\u017enostem bolsonarist\u016f na nepokoje v roce 2023, vn\u00edman\u00e9mu politick\u00e9mu pron\u00e1sledov\u00e1n\u00ed po \u00fadajn\u00e9m <\/a>pokusu o p\u0159evrat<\/a> Jaira Bolsonara a ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159e<\/a> v elektronick\u00e9 hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bidenova administrativa d\u0159\u00edve po zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lostech \u201e <\/span>rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem p\u0159isp\u011bla k udr\u017een\u00ed Luly da Silvy u moci<\/span><\/a> \u201c \u2013 co\u017e je fakt, kter\u00fd jist\u011b zhor\u0161uje vztahy se sou\u010dasn\u00fdm B\u00edl\u00fdm domem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump v\u0161ak \u010del\u00ed vlastn\u00edm tlak\u016fm, v\u010detn\u011b bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edch se voleb do poloviny volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed, \u00fapadku<\/a> programu MAGA, krize na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b<\/a> a skand\u00e1lu s Epsteinov\u00fdmi spisy<\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se nap\u011bt\u00ed zhor\u0161\u00ed, jev\u00ed se zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 donucovac\u00ed diplomacie (cla, sankce a souvisej\u00edc\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed) pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e okam\u017eit\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 eskalace \u2013 a\u010dkoli vojensk\u00e9 hrozby z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed v r\u00e1mci eskalace ze strany Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Braz\u00edlie je v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku ter\u010dem kritiky kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 roli a <\/span>strategick\u00e9mu v\u00fdznamu<\/span><\/a> v BRICS \u2013 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u010del\u00ed vlastn\u00edm vnitropolitick\u00fdm kriz\u00edm \u2013 s d\u016fsledky, kter\u00e9 by mohly na roky zm\u011bnit dynamiku na t\u00e9to hemisf\u00e9\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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Lul\u016fv dramatick\u00fd n\u00e1vrat proti Flaviovi Bolsonarovi vyvolal neprok\u00e1zan\u00e1 obvin\u011bn\u00ed z podvod\u016f, soudn\u00ed spory a mo\u017enou…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119672,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[288,4201,452,9752],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119671"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119671\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}