{"id":119564,"date":"2026-10-28T00:24:44","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T23:24:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119564"},"modified":"2026-10-27T13:21:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T12:21:06","slug":"v-evrope-nakonec-nebude-zadna-mirna-zima-polarni-vortex-by-se-mohl-zhroutit-neobvykle-brzy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/28\/v-evrope-nakonec-nebude-zadna-mirna-zima-polarni-vortex-by-se-mohl-zhroutit-neobvykle-brzy\/","title":{"rendered":"V Evrop\u011b nakonec nebude \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 m\u00edrn\u00e1 zima? Pol\u00e1rn\u00ed vortex by se mohl zhroutit neobvykle brzy"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Neobvykle siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o, nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty oce\u00e1n\u016f a vyhl\u00eddka na pom\u011brn\u011b m\u00edrnou zimu v Evrop\u011b: Evropsk\u00e9 meteorologick\u00e9 modely v\u0161ak nyn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd kolaps pol\u00e1rn\u00edho vortexu \u2013 d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e kdykoli p\u0159edt\u00edm od za\u010d\u00e1tku m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed. Svou roli by v tom mohlo hr\u00e1t siln\u00e9 oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed tropick\u00e9ho Pacifiku. M\u00edsto m\u00edrn\u00e9ho atlantsk\u00e9ho vzduchu by tak Evropa mohla pozd\u011bji v zim\u011b za\u017e\u00edt ledov\u00fd chlad od v\u00fdchodu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/report24.news\/deutschlands-gasspeicher-zu-leer-schon-eine-kurze-kaeltewelle-koennte-zum-problem-werden\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vyhl\u00eddky<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> na relativn\u011b m\u00edrnou evropskou zimu ve skute\u010dnosti nejsou tak \u0161patn\u00e9. Koneckonc\u016f, mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o zp\u016fsobuje v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zm\u011bny v glob\u00e1ln\u00edch vzdu\u0161n\u00fdch proudech, kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bpov\u011btrnostn\u00ed vzorce v Evrop\u011b. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dty Evropsk\u00e9ho centra pro st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed (ECMWF) v\u0161ak nyn\u00ed p\u0159inesly p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed. Ji\u017e za\u010d\u00e1tkem listopadu by pol\u00e1rn\u00ed vortex nad Arktidou <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.polarvortex.earth\/vortex\/arctic\"><span dir=\"auto\">mohl tak drasticky zesl\u00e1bnout, \u017ee by se tamn\u00ed p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u011btry mohly zcela obr\u00e1tit. Takov\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost nebyla <\/span><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.polarvortex.earth\/brief\/warmings\"><span dir=\"auto\">nikdy<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> zaznamen\u00e1na tak brzy od za\u010d\u00e1tku z\u00e1znam\u016f v roce 1959 .<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159edchoz\u00ed rekord pro \u010dasn\u00fd obrat v\u011btru poch\u00e1z\u00ed z 28. listopadu a byl zaznamen\u00e1n v letech 1968 a 2025. Nyn\u00ed 23 z 50 klasick\u00fdch datov\u00fdch cykl\u016f ECMWF od 26. \u0159\u00edjna p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 takov\u00fd obrat do 10. listopadu. Hlavn\u00ed cykl s vysok\u00fdm rozli\u0161en\u00edm jej dokonce p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 ji\u017e 6. listopadu. Modely AIFS zalo\u017een\u00e9 na um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligenci jsou v\u0161ak podstatn\u011b opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 jej pouze 12 z 50. Samotn\u00fd pol\u00e1rn\u00ed vortex je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b st\u00e1le zhruba na sv\u00e9 norm\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edle. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b potvrzen\u00fd obrat v\u011btru na za\u010d\u00e1tku listopadu by byl meteorologick\u00fdm rekordem, kter\u00fd by mohl naru\u0161it i sou\u010dasn\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pro evropskou zimu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-ein-fruher-polarwirbel-kollaps-konnte-frostig-werden\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Brzk\u00fd kolaps pol\u00e1rn\u00edho vortexu by mohl b\u00fdt mraziv\u00fd<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e se pol\u00e1rn\u00ed vortex zhrout\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee to v\u00fdznamn\u011b <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/about-us\/news-and-media\/media-centre\/weather-and-climate-news\/2018\/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk\"><span dir=\"auto\">zm\u011bnit<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 proudy na severn\u00ed polokouli . B\u011bhem takov\u00e9ho n\u00e1hl\u00e9ho stratosf\u00e9rick\u00e9ho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed (JSW) z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u00edtr ve v\u00fd\u0161ce kolem 30 kilometr\u016f zna\u010dn\u011b zesl\u00e1bne nebo dokonce obr\u00e1t\u00ed sv\u016fj sm\u011br. O n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f pozd\u011bji se \u00fa\u010dinky mohou projevit na po\u010das\u00ed u zem\u011b. Pokud se nap\u0159\u00edklad nad Skandin\u00e1vi\u00ed nebo Gr\u00f3nskem vytvo\u0159\u00ed stabiln\u00ed vysokotlak\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, m\u00edrn\u00fd atlantick\u00fd vzduch je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b blokov\u00e1n. Do st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy pak m\u016f\u017ee proudit ledov\u00fd vzduch z Arktidy a Sibi\u0159e. V \u00fanoru 2018 vedl takov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj k nechvaln\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e9 \u201ebestii z v\u00fdchodu\u201c, kter\u00e1 pokryla velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Evropy mrazem a sn\u011bhem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml\"><span dir=\"auto\">Je ironi\u00ed, \u017ee v tom m\u016f\u017ee hr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o . Podle americk\u00e9ho N\u00e1rodn\u00edho \u00fa\u0159adu pro oce\u00e1n a atmosf\u00e9ru (NOAA) byly teploty vody v centr\u00e1ln\u00edm tropick\u00e9m Pacifiku ji\u017e v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed o 2,1 stupn\u011b Celsia nad dlouhodob\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem. Ve v\u00fdchodn\u00edm Pacifiku byly v n\u011bkter\u00fdch oblastech nam\u011b\u0159eny odchylky o v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dty\u0159i stupn\u011b Celsia. Takov\u00e9 obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed tepla ovliv\u0148uje atmosf\u00e9rickou cirkulaci na obrovsk\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti. To m\u016f\u017ee mimo jin\u00e9 zes\u00edlit rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 vlnov\u00e9 pohyby, kter\u00e9 pronikaj\u00ed do stratosf\u00e9ry a oslabuj\u00ed pol\u00e1rn\u00ed vortex.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ji\u017e za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna britsk\u00fd meteorologick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad upozornil na <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/blog\/2026\/super-el-nino-551-mile-wall-of-rain-and-snow-weather-headline-review\"><span dir=\"auto\">to, \u017ee<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o b\u011bhem zimy m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt velmi odli\u0161n\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky. Zat\u00edmco zpo\u010d\u00e1tku je m\u00edrn\u00e9, vlhk\u00e9 a v\u011btrn\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, pravd\u011bpodobnost oslaben\u00ed pol\u00e1rn\u00edho vortexu se pozd\u011bji zvy\u0161uje. To tak\u00e9 zvy\u0161uje mo\u017enost siln\u00fdch chladn\u00fdch obdob\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty ECMWF v\u0161ak nazna\u010duj\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed ji\u017e za\u010d\u00e1tkem listopadu, co\u017e je v\u00fdrazn\u011b d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e je pro takov\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti typick\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-grosse-unsicherheit\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Velk\u00e1 nejistota<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u00edky tomu jsou sou\u010dasn\u00e9 sez\u00f3nn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi zaj\u00edmav\u00e9. Evropsk\u00e1 slu\u017eba pro zm\u011bnu klimatu programu Copernicus nad\u00e1le <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/climate.copernicus.eu\/seasonal-forecasts\"><span dir=\"auto\">p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1<\/span><\/a><span dir=\"auto\"> nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 zimn\u00ed teploty pro velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Evropy. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se pozd\u011bji v zim\u011b projevuj\u00ed zm\u011bny ve vzorc\u00edch tlaku vzduchu ve velk\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku, co\u017e by mohlo tak\u00e9 napom\u00e1hat blokov\u00e1n\u00ed vysok\u00e9ho tlaku v severn\u00edch oblastech. V\u00fdpo\u010dty v\u0161ak nezaru\u010duj\u00ed trvale m\u00edrnou zimu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nicm\u00e9n\u011b i rozd\u00edl pouh\u00fdch n\u011bkolika set kilometr\u016f v poloze siln\u00e9ho vysokotlak\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu m\u016f\u017ee rozhodnout o tom, zda ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b fouk\u00e1 ledov\u00fd v\u00fdchodn\u00ed v\u00edtr, nebo zda bude i nad\u00e1le zasa\u017eena relativn\u011b m\u00edrn\u00fdm atlantick\u00fdm vzduchem. Pro N\u011bmecko by se del\u0161\u00ed obdob\u00ed mraz\u016f mohlo uk\u00e1zat jako extr\u00e9mn\u011b nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 vzhledem k jeho n\u00edzk\u00fdm z\u00e1sob\u00e1m plynu. Energetick\u00e1 politika nakonec zemi postavila do situace, kdy by m\u00edrn\u00e1 zima p\u0159inesla zna\u010dnou finan\u010dn\u00ed \u00falevu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Neobvykle siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o, nadpr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty oce\u00e1n\u016f a vyhl\u00eddka na pom\u011brn\u011b m\u00edrnou zimu v Evrop\u011b:&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119565,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[11562,873,2700,1101],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119564"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119564"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119564\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119565"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119564"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}