{"id":119547,"date":"2026-10-28T00:17:56","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T23:17:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119547"},"modified":"2026-10-27T13:02:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T12:02:32","slug":"vitejte-v-dubaji-mene-turistu-plaze-potrisnene-ropou-a-kamiony-plne-vody","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/28\/vitejte-v-dubaji-mene-turistu-plaze-potrisnene-ropou-a-kamiony-plne-vody\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u00edtejte v Dubaji: M\u00e9n\u011b turist\u016f, pl\u00e1\u017ee pot\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00e9 ropou a kamiony pln\u00e9 vody"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ne\u017e se pono\u0159\u00edme do nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzy Karla Millera, jen kr\u00e1tk\u00fd koment\u00e1\u0159 k p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9mu v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed prezidenta Luly v ned\u00e1vno skon\u010den\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v Braz\u00edlii. S\u00e1zkov\u00e9 trhy favorizovaly Bolsonara a mnoho lid\u00ed p\u0159i s\u00e1zk\u00e1ch na n\u011bj prod\u011blalo pen\u00edze (a\u010dkoli s\u00e1zkov\u00e9 kancel\u00e1\u0159e jsou nad\u0161en\u00e9). Lulovo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed znamen\u00e1, \u017ee BRICS z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nedot\u010den\u00e1 a Donald Trump utrp\u011bl por\u00e1\u017eku. Je to p\u0159edzv\u011bst toho, co Trumpa \u010dek\u00e1 3. listopadu? Nyn\u00ed se poj\u010fme obr\u00e1tit ke Karlu Millerovi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed prod\u00e1valy sv\u011btu fantazii: o\u00e1zu sklen\u011bn\u00fdch v\u011b\u017e\u00ed, nekone\u010dn\u00fdch baz\u00e9n\u016f a bezceln\u00edho zlata, pokojn\u011b se vzn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00edc\u00ed nad chaosem Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu. Rezervujte si svou zast\u00e1vku, hl\u00e1saly reklamy. Nic \u0161patn\u00e9ho se zde nikdy nestane.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed ekonomiky Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1t\u016f od Karla Millera ze dne 25. \u0159\u00edjna zn\u00ed jako recenze z\u00e1kazn\u00edka pot\u00e9, co se sliby v bro\u017eu\u0159e uk\u00e1zaly jako neopodstatn\u011bn\u00e9. Jedna hv\u011bzdi\u010dka. M\u00e9n\u011b host\u016f, ne\u017e bylo inzerov\u00e1no. Pl\u00e1\u017e uzav\u0159ena kv\u016fli rop\u011b. Pros\u00edm, p\u0159ineste si vlastn\u00ed vodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kam se v\u0161ichni ztratili?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme s turisty, respektive s jejich nedostatkem. Od ledna do srpna zaznamenala Dubaj 6,97 milionu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvn\u00edk\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159enocovali. Ve stejn\u00e9m obdob\u00ed lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku to bylo 12,54 milionu. To je o 5,57 milionu n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv m\u00e9n\u011b, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje pokles o 44 procent. Jak se ukazuje, b\u00fdt \u201ev dosahu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch dron\u016f\u201c nen\u00ed v cestovn\u00edch bro\u017eur\u00e1ch zrovna prodejn\u00edm argumentem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hotely si toho v\u0161imly. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 obsazenost klesla v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 30 procent ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u0159edchoz\u00edm rokem a ceny pokoj\u016f klesly o 7 procent. Dohromady se tak sn\u00ed\u017eily p\u0159\u00edjmy na pokoj p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 35 procent. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed leti\u0161t\u011b v Dubaji, kter\u00e9 se r\u00e1do ozna\u010duje za nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 centrum pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed cestuj\u00edc\u00ed, odbavilo v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku 31,5 milionu cestuj\u00edc\u00edch, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje pokles o 31 procent. Leteck\u00e1 n\u00e1kladn\u00ed doprava poklesla o 29 procent. Z kdysi glob\u00e1ln\u00edho centra se stalo m\u00edsto, kam lid\u00e9 prost\u011b jen l\u00e9taj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom byli spravedliv\u00ed, do\u0161lo k o\u017eiven\u00ed. Obsazenost hotel\u016f vzrostla z \u017ealostn\u00fdch 36 procent v b\u0159eznu na 66 procent v srpnu. Pak se ropa za\u010dala vyplavovat na b\u0159eh.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vlny volaj\u00ed \u2013 a jsou \u010dern\u00e9<\/span><\/h2>\n

Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty tento m\u011bs\u00edc uzav\u0159ely pl\u00e1\u017ee v Umm al-Kuvajnu pot\u00e9, co se na b\u0159eh vyplavila ropn\u00e1 skvrna o rozloze v\u00edce ne\u017e 60 \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch mil, kter\u00e1 z\u0159ejm\u011b poch\u00e1zela z hav\u00e1rie supertankeru 9. \u0159\u00edjna. Ryb\u00e1\u0159i byli vyzv\u00e1ni, aby se k pl\u00e1\u017e\u00edm vyhnuli. Vl\u00e1da ujistila obyvatele, \u017ee z\u00e1pach nep\u0159edstavuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zdravotn\u00ed riziko \u2013 p\u0159esn\u011b to, co chcete sly\u0161et od sv\u00e9 dovolenkov\u00e9 destinace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Miller zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee \u00faklid nen\u00ed jednor\u00e1zovou ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. Ropa se usazuje v sedimentech, vsakuje se do mangrov\u016f a vrac\u00ed se s p\u0159\u00edlivem. Kupuj\u00edc\u00ed mo\u0159sk\u00fdch plod\u016f hledaj\u00ed jin\u00e9 dodavatele. Provozovatel\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f drhnou trupy lod\u00ed. Turist\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed vid\u00ed fotografie pl\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pokryt\u00fdch ropou, si rad\u011bji rezervuj\u00ed Thajsko. Dokon\u010den\u00fd \u00faklid, su\u0161e poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, z\u00e1kazn\u00edky zp\u011bt nep\u0159ivede.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m: voda<\/span><\/h2>\n

A te\u010f k t\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti, kter\u00e1 by m\u011bla prince z Ab\u00fa Zab\u00ed dojmout k slz\u00e1m \u2013 a to nejen kv\u016fli horku. Umm al-Kuvajn nen\u00ed jen pl\u00e1\u017e. Nach\u00e1z\u00ed se zde odsolovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed NAQA’A s nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacitou 150 milion\u016f imperi\u00e1ln\u00edch galon\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e je zhruba 682 milion\u016f litr\u016f. Podle Millera toto jedin\u00e9 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159i \u010dtvrtiny odsolovac\u00ed kapacity spole\u010dnosti Etihad Water and Electricity, energetick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti pro severn\u00ed emir\u00e1ty. Jen v Dubaji dod\u00e1v\u00e1 komplex Jebel Ali p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 88 procent odsolovac\u00ed kapacity emir\u00e1tu. Jak se uk\u00e1zalo, SAE diverzifikuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed portfolio, ale ne pitnou vodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V p\u0159edchoz\u00edm p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku jsem se zab\u00fdval n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm, ale stoj\u00ed za to to zopakovat. Odsolovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed jednu jednoduchou v\u011bc: \u010distou mo\u0159skou vodu. Pokud se ropa dostane k m\u00edstu odb\u011bru vody, mus\u00ed provozovatel\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017eit produkci nebo za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed odstavit, aby ochr\u00e1nili jeho filtry a membr\u00e1ny. Miller uv\u00e1d\u00ed hypotetick\u00fd \u2013 a zd\u016fraz\u0148uji hypotetick\u00fd \u2013 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ve kter\u00e9m by se dod\u00e1vky NAQA’A sn\u00ed\u017eily o 50 procent. To by vedlo ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 341 milion\u016f litr\u016f pitn\u00e9 vody denn\u011b. B\u011bhem t\u00fddne by to \u010dinilo 2,4 miliardy litr\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNebojte se,\u201c \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed optimist\u00e9. \u201eNech\u00e1me si to dov\u00e9zt kamionem.\u201c Miller s t\u00edm tak\u00e9 po\u010d\u00edtal. K nahrazen\u00ed ztracen\u00e9 vody cisternami o objemu 30 krychlov\u00fdch metr\u016f by bylo denn\u011b pot\u0159eba 11 365 pln\u011b nalo\u017een\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek, nepo\u010d\u00edtaje zp\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed cesty pro dopln\u011bn\u00ed vody. P\u0159edstavte si jeden\u00e1ct tis\u00edc kamion\u016f s vodou, kter\u00e9 se ka\u017ed\u00fd den v letn\u00edm vedru prod\u00edraj\u00ed ulicemi severn\u00edch Emir\u00e1t\u016f. To je \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed asi stejn\u011b u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9, jako kdybyste se sna\u017eili od\u010derpat Titanic \u0161\u00e1lkem \u010daje.<\/span><\/p>\n

A co nouzov\u00e9 rezervy? Za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ve Fud\u017eaj\u0159e v Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed \u010derpat vodu do vnitrozem\u00ed, ale Fud\u017eajra m\u00e1 sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed probl\u00e9m s ropou a je tak\u00e9 zraniteln\u00e1 v\u016f\u010di \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm. Strategick\u00e1 rezerva v Liw\u011b je navr\u017eena tak, aby v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nouze dod\u00e1vala p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 182 milion\u016f litr\u016f denn\u011b \u2013 co\u017e je u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek, kter\u00fd by v Millerov\u011b sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i pokryl zhruba polovinu nedostatku NAQA’A. Jak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, m\u00edt n\u011bkde velkou n\u00e1dr\u017e neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee m\u016f\u017eete vodu dostate\u010dn\u011b rychle od\u010derpat nebo dopravit tam, kde lid\u00e9 \u017e\u00edzn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hotelov\u00fd \u00fa\u010det<\/span><\/h2>\n

Miller tak\u00e9 vytvo\u0159il jednoduch\u00fd model, kter\u00fd ukazuje, co se stane s resortem s 1 000 pokoji, kdy\u017e host\u00e9 z\u016fstanou pry\u010d. Vezm\u011bme si hotel, kter\u00fd norm\u00e1ln\u011b funguje se 70% obsazenost\u00ed a \u00fa\u010dtuje si 1 000 AED za noc. Aby p\u0159il\u00e1kal hosty, sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed cenu na 800 AED, ale st\u00e1le z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 z 90 procent pr\u00e1zdn\u00fd. K tomu p\u0159ipo\u010dt\u011bte 10 milion\u016f AED v hotovosti. S fixn\u00edmi n\u00e1klady a obsluhou dluhu jsou tyto pen\u00edze pry\u010d asi za 37 dn\u00ed. Pokud p\u0159ipo\u010dtete jeden milion dirham\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b za don\u00e1\u0161ku vody a \u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pl\u00e1\u017ee, zb\u00fdv\u00e1 v\u00e1m asi m\u011bs\u00edc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro up\u0159esn\u011bn\u00ed: Miller zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee m\u00edra neobsazenosti 90 procent je z\u00e1t\u011b\u017eov\u00fd test a nikoli m\u011b\u0159en\u00fd pr\u016fm\u011br pro cel\u00e9 Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty. Z\u00e1t\u011b\u017eov\u00fd test v\u0161ak dan\u00fd bod ilustruje. P\u0159i sn\u00ed\u017een\u00e9 cen\u011b mus\u00ed hotel obsadit p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 56 procent sv\u00fdch pokoj\u016f, aby dos\u00e1hl bodu rentability na z\u00e1klad\u011b cash flow. Je\u0161t\u011b v b\u0159eznu byla skute\u010dn\u00e1 m\u00edra obsazenosti v Dubaji 36 procent. N\u011bkde si majitel hotelu pr\u00e1v\u011b telefonuje se sv\u00fdm bank\u00e9\u0159em a procvi\u010duje si fr\u00e1zi \u201epr\u00e1zdniny od spl\u00e1cen\u00ed dluh\u016f\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky se neomezuj\u00ed pouze na hotel. Zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9 platby se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed po \u0159et\u011bzci k pr\u00e1deln\u00e1m, dodavatel\u016fm potravin, taxik\u00e1\u0159\u016fm a dodavatel\u016fm. Miller\u016fv model nemovitost\u00ed ukazuje, \u017ee 25% pokles p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f v kombinaci s investory po\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00edmi 7% n\u00e1vratnost m\u00edsto 6% sni\u017euje hodnotu nemovitosti generuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem zhruba o 36%. To nen\u00ed kolaps. Ale sta\u010d\u00ed to k tomu, aby se jak\u00e1koli diskuse o refinancov\u00e1n\u00ed v Dubaji stala extr\u00e9mn\u011b nep\u0159\u00edjemnou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Centrum, kter\u00e9 nem\u016f\u017ee sl\u00edbit v\u010dasn\u00e9 dod\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Pak je tu obchod. SAE neprod\u00e1vaj\u00ed jen zbo\u017e\u00ed. Prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed rychlost a spolehlivost, slib, \u017ee v\u00e1\u0161 kontejner doraz\u00ed v\u010das. Kdy\u017e se lod\u011b mus\u00ed vyh\u00fdbat dron\u016fm a ropn\u00fdm skvrn\u00e1m, tento slib se prodra\u017e\u00ed. Miller vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee 30denn\u00ed zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed u z\u00e1sob v hodnot\u011b 10 milion\u016f dolar\u016f financovan\u00fdch s 12% \u00farokem stoj\u00ed jen na \u00faroc\u00edch asi 99 000 dolar\u016f. To je zhruba p\u011btina typick\u00e9ho hrub\u00e9ho zisku obchodn\u00edka, kter\u00fd ztrat\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e se zkaz\u00ed jedin\u00fd karton. Pokud se to stane n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t, z\u00e1kazn\u00edci za\u010dnou sv\u016fj n\u00e1klad p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1vat jinam. Jakmile najdou spolehlivou alternativu, jen z\u0159\u00eddka se vracej\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomika Mirage<\/span><\/h2>\n

Miller nep\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 kolaps SAE. V\u00fdslovn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee si Emir\u00e1ty zachov\u00e1vaj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 siln\u00e9 str\u00e1nky, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 a logistick\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed odoln\u00e9 a \u017ee nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 \u2013 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek vody na obou pob\u0159e\u017e\u00edch \u2013 je nahodil\u00fd a dosud k n\u011bmu nedo\u0161lo. Jeho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 centr\u00e1ln\u00edho pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed je v\u0161ak \u201edlouhodob\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed\u201c, co\u017e by m\u011blo znepokojovat v\u0161echny, kter\u00fdm bylo \u0159e\u010deno, \u017ee tato v\u00e1lka bude kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 a jej\u00ed n\u00e1klady ponese \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty vybudovaly prosperuj\u00edc\u00ed ekonomiku na t\u0159ech p\u0159edpokladech: \u017ee turist\u00e9 budou i nad\u00e1le p\u0159ich\u00e1zet, lod\u011b budou i nad\u00e1le plout a mo\u0159e bude i nad\u00e1le z\u00e1sobovat pitnou vodou. Nyn\u00ed v\u0161echny t\u0159i p\u0159edpoklady z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tom, zda dal\u0161\u00ed raketa nezas\u00e1hne dal\u0161\u00ed tanker pobl\u00ed\u017e dal\u0161\u00edho m\u00edsta p\u0159\u00edjmu vody. Dal\u0161\u00ed kolo americk\u00fdch a izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na \u00cdr\u00e1n vyvol\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed kolo \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 odvety a situace v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu ji\u017e uk\u00e1zala, kde \u00fa\u010det skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale pod\u00edvejme se na to z t\u00e9 lep\u0161\u00ed str\u00e1nky. Pl\u00e1\u017ee nejsou p\u0159epln\u011bn\u00e9, hotely maj\u00ed spoustu voln\u00fdch pokoj\u016f a v\u00fdhled na ho\u0159\u00edc\u00ed tankery na vod\u011b je \u00fachvatn\u00fd. Sta\u010d\u00ed si p\u0159in\u00e9st vlastn\u00ed vodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Napsal Larry C. Johnson<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ne\u017e se pono\u0159\u00edme do nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzy Karla Millera, jen kr\u00e1tk\u00fd koment\u00e1\u0159 k p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9mu v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed prezidenta…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119548,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[4437,67,3153],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119547"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119547\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119548"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}