{"id":119511,"date":"2026-10-27T05:40:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T04:40:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119511"},"modified":"2026-10-27T05:40:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T04:40:10","slug":"cernomorsky-stret-s-moskvou-je-evropa-bliz-ke-stretu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/27\/cernomorsky-stret-s-moskvou-je-evropa-bliz-ke-stretu\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cernomo\u0159sk\u00fd st\u0159et s Moskvou: Je Evropa bl\u00ed\u017e ke st\u0159etu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee z\u00e1konod\u00e1rci EU zva\u017euj\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed misi a NATO roz\u0161i\u0159uje dohled, \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e se st\u00e1v\u00e1 nebezpe\u010dnou ar\u00e9nou konfrontace. Riziko p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho incidentu mezi Ruskem a NATO roste uprost\u0159ed \u00fatok\u016f na obchodn\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e je n\u011bkter\u00fdmi analytiky <\/span>ozna\u010dov\u00e1no<\/span><\/a> za nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasu na sv\u011bt\u011b \u2013 ob\u010das \u201e <\/span>p\u0159ekon\u00e1v\u00e1 Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv<\/span><\/a> \u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti Evropsk\u00fd parlament ned\u00e1vno vyzval EU, aby zv\u00e1\u017eila <\/span>n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed operaci<\/span><\/a> v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i uprost\u0159ed opakovan\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na komer\u010dn\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravu, zat\u00edmco <\/span>Francie<\/span><\/a> ji\u017e do regionu <\/span>nasadila n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed hl\u00eddkov\u00e9 letadlo \u2013 stejn\u011b <\/span><\/a>jako<\/span><\/a> USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00fd parlament 22. \u0159\u00edjna s velkou p\u0159evahou hlas\u016f p\u0159ijal rezoluci, v n\u00ed\u017e nal\u00e9hav\u011b \u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 o zv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed jak n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed mise EU, tak iniciativy NATO v oblasti n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

O n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve vyslala Francie lo\u010f <\/span>Atlantique 2<\/span><\/a> do rumunsk\u00e9 Konstance, kde se zapojila do mis\u00ed a z\u00e1chrann\u00fdch prac\u00ed NATO po \u00fatoc\u00edch na obchodn\u00ed lod\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na plavidla spojen\u00e1 s rusk\u00fdm obchodem <\/span>zv\u00fd\u0161ily<\/span><\/a> n\u00e1klady na poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a prudce sn\u00ed\u017eily kyjevsk\u00fd vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdvoz zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f p\u0159epravovan\u00fdch po mo\u0159i \u2013 a rusk\u00e9 <\/span>reakce<\/span><\/a> tuto nejistotu je\u0161t\u011b prohloubily. Lod\u011b, poji\u0161\u0165ovny a komoditn\u00ed trhy t\u0159et\u00edch zem\u00ed jsou nyn\u00ed st\u00e1le v\u00edce ohro\u017eeny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden jsem <\/span>tvrdil<\/span><\/a> , \u017ee roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed se \u00fatoky Kyjeva na s Ruskem propojenou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed a energetickou infrastrukturu ji\u017e naru\u0161uj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod a zvy\u0161uj\u00ed riziko \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed konfrontace. S <\/span>odvetn\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi<\/span><\/a> Moskvy a rostouc\u00edm zapojen\u00edm Evropy do konfliktu toto riziko roste.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kroky potvrzuj\u00ed, \u017ee situace p\u0159ekro\u010dila r\u00e1mec r\u00e9toriky. Americk\u00fd n\u00e1mo\u0159nick\u00fd letoun P-8A Poseidon hl\u00eddkoval <\/span>pobl\u00ed\u017e<\/span><\/a> Bulharska a NATO ozn\u00e1milo <\/span>nasazen\u00ed<\/span><\/a> dal\u0161\u00edch sledovac\u00edch letadel, dron\u016f a radarov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed smrt\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatok potopil n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lo\u010f Choryv u rumunsk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed. Rumunsko obvinilo Moskvu, a\u010dkoli NATO toto p\u0159i\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed jednotn\u011b nepotvrdilo <\/span>.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 podpora Ukrajiny se dosud soust\u0159edila p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b na zbran\u011b, v\u00fdcvik a zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby, spolu s ekonomick\u00fdmi sankcemi proti Rusku. \u0160ir\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed operace by um\u00edstila evropsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 prost\u0159edky do bojov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny, kde by se mohly p\u0159\u00edmo setkat s rusk\u00fdmi silami. Politick\u00e9 a opera\u010dn\u00ed sign\u00e1ly se v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b ub\u00edraj\u00ed stejn\u00fdm sm\u011brem, co\u017e zvy\u0161uje s\u00e1zky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vynikaj\u00ed t\u0159i propojen\u00e9 trendy:<\/span><\/p>\n

1) N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost se internacionalizuje: to, co za\u010dalo jako bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed boj, nyn\u00ed p\u0159itahuje poji\u0161\u0165ovny, obchodn\u00edky a vl\u00e1dy daleko od fronty.<\/span><\/p>\n

2) N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dimenze se \u201eevropizuje\u201c, hl\u00eddkov\u00e9 letouny a sledovac\u00ed syst\u00e9my jsou ji\u017e na m\u00edst\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

3) Krize v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i zvy\u0161uje tlak na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trhy s p\u0159epravou a poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm, kter\u00e9 jsou ji\u017e tak zat\u00ed\u017eeny naru\u0161en\u00edm provozu v dal\u0161\u00edch strategick\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch uzlech, v\u010detn\u011b Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a <\/span>Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e<\/span><\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm nebezpe\u010d\u00edm nen\u00ed nutn\u011b \u00famysln\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed o tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce, ale incident, kter\u00fd vyvol\u00e1 odvetu. Nap\u0159\u00edklad drony, kter\u00e9 vstoup\u00ed do vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru NATO a budou zachyceny, by mohly z\u016fstat zadr\u017eeny. N\u00e1hodn\u00e1 v\u00fdm\u011bna \u00fader\u016f s evropsk\u00fdmi letadly nebo lod\u011bmi nebo ztr\u00e1ta evropsk\u00e9ho person\u00e1lu by v\u0161ak situaci v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ily.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cl\u00e1nek 5 NATO nen\u00ed tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc automatick\u00fd, pokud jde o spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 reakce, ale bl\u00edzkost sil rozhodne o tom, jak rychle se jak\u00fdkoli st\u0159et vyhrot\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc postaven\u00ed Turecka v r\u00e1mci Montreuxsk\u00e9 \u00famluvy z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9. Ankara kontroluje pr\u016fjezd Bosporem a Dardanelami a od roku 2022 uplat\u0148uje v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 omezen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turecko dlouhodob\u011b vyva\u017euje sv\u00e9 \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO vazbami na Moskvu. Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e1 evropsk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost by toto \u201evyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c prov\u011b\u0159ila a mohla by pos\u00edlit roli Ankary jako <\/span>prost\u0159edn\u00edka<\/span><\/a> \u2013 co\u017e jsem ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve zm\u00ednil, kdy\u017e jsem komentoval tureck\u00e9 <\/span>n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed ambice<\/span><\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Z ekonomick\u00e9ho hlediska je situace dostate\u010dn\u011b jednozna\u010dn\u00e1. Obil\u00ed, hnojiva a region\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 z\u00e1silky se p\u0159epravuj\u00ed t\u011bmito vodami. Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatoky zvy\u0161uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady na dopravu a poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, i kdy\u017e je n\u00e1klad st\u00e1le k dispozici. A dopady poci\u0165uj\u00ed trhy od z\u00e1padn\u00ed Afriky po Indon\u00e9sii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed organizace <\/span>varovala<\/span><\/a> , \u017ee \u00fatoky nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d r\u016fzn\u00fdmi oblastmi boji ji\u017e naru\u0161uj\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost by mohla konflikt roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it, pokud by evropsk\u00e9 s\u00edly za\u010daly zachycovat drony nebo rakety. V\u00fdsledek m\u016f\u017ee op\u011bt z\u00e1viset na geografick\u00fdch omezen\u00edch a koordinaci s Tureckem. Dosavadn\u00ed d\u016fkazy nazna\u010duj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 riziko taktick\u00fdch incident\u016f ne\u017e bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed strategick\u00fd st\u0159et.<\/span><\/p>\n

V nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech budou kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdmi ukazateli pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b jak\u00e1koli diskuse Rady EU o form\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed misi, reakce Turecka, p\u0159esn\u00e1 pravidla zapojen\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fatoky v bl\u00edzkosti rumunsk\u00fdch nebo bulharsk\u00fdch vod.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jde o to, \u017ee \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e se zjevn\u011b st\u00e1v\u00e1 spornou hranic\u00ed a zako\u0159en\u011bnou geopolitickou zlomovou lini\u00ed \u2013 m\u00edstem, kde se prot\u00edn\u00e1 evropsk\u00e1 kolektivn\u00ed obrana, obchodn\u00ed lodn\u00ed doprava a euroasijsk\u00e9 dopravn\u00ed trasy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde m\u011b napad\u00e1 teorie rimlandu Nicholase Spykmana : jeho slavn\u00fd v\u00fdrok \u201e <\/a><\/span>Kdo ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 rimland, vl\u00e1dne Eurasii<\/span><\/a> \u201c zd\u016fraz\u0148uje <\/span>strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam<\/span><\/a> n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed periferie kontinentu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e, kter\u00e9 se nach\u00e1z\u00ed na k\u0159i\u017eovatce rusk\u00fdch, evropsk\u00fdch a tureck\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f, se st\u00e1le v\u00edce <\/span>st\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a> \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm bodem v tomto \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm boji o eurasijskou bezpe\u010dnost a vliv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed eskalace je dostate\u010dn\u011b re\u00e1ln\u00e9 a geopolitick\u00fd charakter regionu se ji\u017e m\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee z\u00e1konod\u00e1rci EU zva\u017euj\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed misi a NATO roz\u0161i\u0159uje dohled, \u010cern\u00e9 mo\u0159e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119512,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[628,39,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119511"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119511"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119511\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119512"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}