{"id":119379,"date":"2026-10-26T00:23:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-25T23:23:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119379"},"modified":"2026-10-25T14:19:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-25T13:19:10","slug":"blizky-vychod-spojene-staty-iran-a-izrael-se-pripravuji-na-novou-valku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/26\/blizky-vychod-spojene-staty-iran-a-izrael-se-pripravuji-na-novou-valku\/","title":{"rendered":"Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod: Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael se p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na novou v\u00e1lku"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Politick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 man\u00e9vry nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod sm\u011b\u0159uje k obnoven\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed v\u00e1lky v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Diplomacie sl\u00e1bne, r\u00e9torika je st\u00e1le zu\u0159iv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a politick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 man\u00e9vry nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee nelze vylou\u010dit novou kritickou f\u00e1zi na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b \u2013 potenci\u00e1ln\u011b znovu rozn\u00edt t\u0159et\u00ed v\u00e1lku v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, \u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael: protagonist\u00e9 na sc\u00e9n\u011b jsou dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace, kter\u00e1 nen\u00ed ani v\u00e1lkou, ani m\u00edrem \u2013 Tel Aviv je od dubna v nejistot\u011b a Washington a Teher\u00e1n se zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00edm chaosu pramen\u00edc\u00edho z kolapsu Isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dsk\u00e9ho memoranda, soupe\u0159\u00ed o kontrolu nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed si varov\u00e1n\u00ed a hrozby \u2013 nem\u016f\u017ee pokra\u010dovat. Po m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch, b\u011bhem nich\u017e se P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, Om\u00e1n, Katar a dal\u0161\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i spol\u00e9hali na diplomacii, se nyn\u00ed do pop\u0159ed\u00ed dost\u00e1v\u00e1 \u0161achov\u00e1 hra vojensk\u00fdch strategi\u00ed a politick\u00e9ho tlaku, zat\u00edmco jak\u00e1koli vyhl\u00eddka na mediaci se zd\u00e1 mizet.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cetn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly ze v\u0161ech stran nazna\u010duj\u00ed tento sm\u011br. \u00cdr\u00e1n zintenzivnil sv\u00e9 \u00fatoky v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 na energetickou a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravu, a odhalil potenci\u00e1ln\u011b st\u00e1le ofenz\u00edvn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed opera\u010dn\u00ed doktr\u00ednu: Mohsen Rez\u00e1\u00ed, tajemn\u00edk Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rady n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, \u0159ekl serveru <\/span>Drop Site<\/span><\/em> , \u017ee <\/span>\u201ev p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky by se do dosahu mohly dostat i podmo\u0159sk\u00e9 kabely, datov\u00e1 centra a infrastruktura um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence<\/span><\/em> \u201c, a dodal, \u017ee <\/span>\u201eka\u017ed\u00fd mus\u00ed pochopit, \u017ee kroky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu n\u011bco stoj\u00ed<\/span><\/em> \u201c. Toto poselstv\u00ed p\u0159ed\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00e1stupce Al\u00edho Larid\u017e\u00e1n\u00edho \u2013 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho \u201eRichelieua\u201c, kter\u00fd byl zabit p\u0159i izraelsk\u00e9m n\u00e1letu b\u011bhem konfliktu, kter\u00fd za\u010dal 28. \u00fanora. Rez\u00e1\u00ed zased\u00e1 v tomto org\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd nyn\u00ed slou\u017e\u00ed jako nervov\u00e9 centrum \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 polyarchie; struktury, kter\u00e1 se od smrti Al\u00edho Chamene\u00edho prom\u011bnila v apar\u00e1t ovl\u00e1dan\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi imperativy. Nelze vylou\u010dit mo\u017enost, \u017ee se \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159ipravuje na t\u0159et\u00ed f\u00e1zi konfliktu \u2013 po st\u0159etech s Izraelem v \u010dervnu 2025 a pot\u00e9 mezi \u00fanorem a dubnem 2026 \u2013 a \u017ee regionalizace nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed by v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i mohla m\u00edt podobu rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 odvety za \u00fatoky na technologickou infrastrukturu. Teher\u00e1n, zahnan\u00fd do kouta, se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt naklon\u011bn eskalaci konfrontace. N\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Asima Munira a isl\u00e1m\u00e1b\u00e1dsk\u00e9ho ministra vnitra Mohsina Naqviho se nav\u00edc uk\u00e1zala jako bezv\u00fdsledn\u00e1 a nepoda\u0159ilo se jim prolomit patovou situaci v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n se sna\u017eil objasnit svou strategii odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed: demonstrac\u00ed ochoty zapojit se do tvrd\u00e9 konfrontace \u2013 a t\u00edm sv\u00fdm protivn\u00edk\u016fm p\u0159ipomenout sv\u00e9 odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed bojovat \u2013; zaujat\u00edm postoje, kter\u00fd nevylu\u010duje v\u00fdraznou eskalaci v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b obnoven\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed, ch\u00e1pan\u00e9ho jako prost\u0159edek k neutralizaci jak\u00e9hokoli nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1m\u011bru; zd\u016frazn\u011bn\u00edm sv\u00e9 siln\u00e9 pozice z\u00edskan\u00e9 v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu (a d\u00e1le) jako p\u00e1ky v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch; a kone\u010dn\u011b odm\u00edtnut\u00edm jak\u00fdchkoli podstatn\u00fdch jednostrann\u00fdch \u00fastupk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vize Washingtonu a Tel Avivu<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Washington a Tel Aviv mus\u00ed tomuto problematick\u00e9mu statu quo p\u0159ikl\u00e1dat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznam ne\u017e jak\u00e9mukoli jin\u00e9mu faktoru. Pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty pod prezidentem Donaldem Trumpem je v s\u00e1zce mnoho r\u016fzn\u00fdch faktor\u016f: region\u00e1ln\u00ed hegemonie, touha znovu z\u00edskat kontrolu nad \u00fazk\u00fdmi n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edmi body Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je mimo jin\u00e9 slou\u017eit strategii geopolitick\u00e9ho a energetick\u00e9ho zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny \u2013 to v\u0161e v kontextu, kdy krize v Levant\u011b pos\u00edlila strategickou v\u00e1hu Ameriky na trhu s ropou. Jak v\u0161ak zd\u016fraz\u0148uje politolog Ali Vaez, mo\u017enosti jsou slo\u017eit\u00e9: americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 a technologick\u00e1 p\u0159evaha nedok\u00e1zala zv\u00edt\u011bzit nad \u201emozaikovou obranou\u201c, regionalizac\u00ed konfliktu a odhodl\u00e1n\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nu testovat limity \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad zintenzivn\u011bn\u00edm asymetrick\u00fdch a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f proti Washingtonu, Tel Avivu a dal\u0161\u00edm st\u00e1t\u016fm v regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington pot\u0159ebuje hmatateln\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky; Donald Trump mus\u00ed ur\u010dit, zda ekonomick\u00fd tlak a sankce budou sta\u010dit k tomu, aby \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159ivedly k jednac\u00edmu stolu a dohod\u011b s v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi \u00fastupky, nebo zda bude z americk\u00e9ho pohledu nutn\u00e9 jej k n\u011b\u010demu donutit. <\/span>\u201eV minulosti se Trump domn\u00edval, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n je na pokraji zk\u00e1zy, nebo dokonce za n\u00ed, ne\u017e zjistil, \u017ee se m\u00fdl\u00ed. Zah\u00e1jen\u00ed nov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f by mohlo vyvolat region\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalaci, ani\u017e by re\u017eim p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eilo kapitulaci<\/span><\/em> ,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 <\/span>The Atlantic<\/span><\/a><\/em> a dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee <\/span>\u201ep\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 pochybnosti o stavu muni\u010dn\u00edch z\u00e1sob Pentagonu \u2013 kter\u00e9 byly na vrcholu konfliktu nebezpe\u010dn\u011b vy\u010derp\u00e1ny \u2013 nezbytn\u00fdch pro obranu americk\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b<\/span><\/em> . \u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Netanjahuovy c\u00edle<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Slo\u017eit\u00e1 realita, formovan\u00e1 konfliktem a prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edmi st\u0159ety ve st\u00ednu k\u0159ehk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mezi Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a \u00cdr\u00e1nem, p\u0159edstavuje v\u00fdzvy i pro izraelsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Benjamina Netanjahua a jeho vl\u00e1du, kte\u0159\u00ed se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed ke kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm volb\u00e1m pro obnovu Knesetu. Podle ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v ve <\/span>Financial Times<\/span><\/em><\/a> Netanjahu zva\u017eoval v \u0159\u00edjnu rozhodn\u00fd postup proti sv\u00e9mu \u00fahlavn\u00edmu nep\u0159\u00edteli \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u2013 my\u0161lenka, od kter\u00e9 nakonec upustil. Nyn\u00ed zb\u00fdv\u00e1 vid\u011bt, zda c\u00edlem Tel Avivu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zam\u011b\u0159it se na tohoto protivn\u00edka \u010d\u00edslo jedna ve spolupr\u00e1ci se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, nebo zda se rozhodne pro strategii zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed jin\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky. V rozhovoru pro <\/span>Associated Press<\/span><\/em> Danny Citrinowicz, analytik Institutu pro studia n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti na Telavivsk\u00e9 univerzit\u011b, zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee volebn\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Netanjahua \u2013 kter\u00fd ve volb\u00e1ch povede kandid\u00e1tku n\u00e1rodn\u011b-konzervativn\u00ed strany Likud \u2013 by podle jeho n\u00e1zoru mohlo u\u010dinit budouc\u00ed \u00fatok proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro sou\u010dasnou izraelskou vl\u00e1du je mo\u017enost sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e vedouc\u00edho k eliminaci \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 hrozby nepochybn\u00e1; diskutuje se v\u0161ak o metod\u00e1ch, jak tohoto z\u00e1kladn\u00edho c\u00edle dos\u00e1hnout. Ne\u00fasp\u011bch v dosa\u017een\u00ed zm\u011bny re\u017eimu a svr\u017een\u00ed Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky b\u011bhem \u00fanorov\u011b-dubnov\u00e9ho konfliktu \u2013 a to i p\u0159es to, \u017ee se re\u017eim radikalizoval a \u00cdr\u00e1n usiloval o balistick\u00fd raketov\u00fd program, kter\u00fd m\u011bl zaplnit mezery po st\u0159etech \u2013 vedl k opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm, my\u0161lenky vojensk\u00e9ho kolapsu Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 v Tel Avivu nav\u00edc bedliv\u011b sleduj\u00ed situaci charakterizovanou p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm \u201ehork\u00fdm m\u00edrem\u201c \u2013 nebo konfrontac\u00ed s n\u00edzkou intenzitou, ba dokonce z\u00e1stupnou. Tato dynamika se odv\u00edj\u00ed na pozad\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch posun\u016f v izraelsk\u00e9 politice: pokud by skon\u010dila \u00e9ra Netanjahua, bude nutn\u00e9 p\u0159ezkoumat celkov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup mo\u017en\u00e9ho n\u00e1stupce, jako je Gadi Eisenkot, aby se posoudila jeho schopnost nasm\u011brovat zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku zem\u011b nov\u00fdm sm\u011brem. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by Izrael v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b obnoven\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed \u2013 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, na kter\u00fd je zem\u011b nyn\u00ed struktur\u00e1ln\u011b zvykl\u00e1 \u2013 pot\u0159eboval podporu americk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany. Na druhou stranu m\u00e1 Izrael v\u00edce zku\u0161enost\u00ed ne\u017e Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty s \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm situace \u201ehork\u00e9ho m\u00edru\u201c a region\u00e1ln\u00edch dopad\u016f konfliktu, od Libanonu po Jemen.<\/span><\/p>\n

V s\u00e1zce jsou \u010detn\u00e9 a rozmanit\u00e9 faktory pro z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 akt\u00e9ry. Pro Teher\u00e1n a velitelsk\u00e9 struktury Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky je c\u00edl jasn\u00fd: zajistit p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu a kontinuitu st\u00e1tu tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm \u00fatok\u016fm jeho nep\u0159\u00e1tel. Pro Izrael jde o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed hrozby a pos\u00edlen\u00ed jeho vlastn\u00ed pozice. Pokud jde o Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, jejich c\u00edlem je znovu nastolit p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e1 pravidla hry v oblasti Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu a udr\u017eet si strategickou kontrolu nad Bl\u00edzk\u00fdm v\u00fdchodem. Hlavn\u00ed riziko v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b selh\u00e1n\u00ed diplomacie spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee by tito t\u0159i akt\u00e9\u0159i mohli up\u0159ednostnit zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed politick\u00e9 konfrontace sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e deeskalaci v domn\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee bu\u010f maj\u00ed \u010dasovou v\u00fdhodu (pro \u00cdr\u00e1n), nebo \u017ee disponuj\u00ed rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edmi prvky \u201etvrd\u00e9 s\u00edly\u201c schopn\u00e9 v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b obnoven\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed zvr\u00e1tit rovnov\u00e1hu. Ve skute\u010dnosti jak\u00fdkoli konflikt riskuje, \u017ee nabude region\u00e1ln\u00edho rozm\u011bru, srovnateln\u00e9ho \u2013 nebo dokonce v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho \u2013 ne\u017e ten, kter\u00fd byl pozorov\u00e1n na ja\u0159e. A neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00e1ruka, \u017ee z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i ani st\u00e1ty v regionu jsou schopny kontrolovat d\u016fsledky takov\u00e9 situace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Paolo Hamidouche<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Politick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 man\u00e9vry nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod sm\u011b\u0159uje k obnoven\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed v\u00e1lky v Persk\u00e9m…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119380,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,107,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119379"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119379"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119379\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119380"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}