{"id":11936,"date":"2022-06-29T01:05:52","date_gmt":"2022-06-28T23:05:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=11936"},"modified":"2022-06-28T17:27:43","modified_gmt":"2022-06-28T15:27:43","slug":"proc-rubl-po-zpravach-o-defaultu-v-rusku-rekordne-vzrostl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/06\/29\/proc-rubl-po-zpravach-o-defaultu-v-rusku-rekordne-vzrostl\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d rubl po zpr\u00e1v\u00e1ch o \u201edefaultu\u201c v Rusku rekordn\u011b vzrostl"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Na aukci v \u00fater\u00fd 28. \u010dervna klesl kurz dolaru na moskevsk\u00e9 burze poprv\u00e9 po sedmi letech na 52,2 rublu.\u00a0Rusk\u00e1 m\u011bna dok\u00e1zala rekordn\u011b pos\u00edlit, a to i p\u0159es prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agentury Moody’s o \u201edefaultu\u201c v Rusk\u00e9 federaci.\u00a0Den p\u0159edt\u00edm spole\u010dnost ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee Moskva nezaplatila \u00faroky ze zahrani\u010dn\u00edho dluhu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 100 milion\u016f dolar\u016f. \u00da\u010dastn\u00edci devizov\u00e9ho trhu v\u0161ak ch\u00e1pou um\u011blou povahu sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situace.\u00a0Jak vysv\u011btluj\u00ed odborn\u00edci, Rusko p\u0159edem p\u0159evedlo finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky na splacen\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00edch p\u016fj\u010dek, ale samotn\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovatelsk\u00e9 banky odm\u00edtly p\u0159ev\u00e9st pen\u00edze v\u011b\u0159itel\u016fm. Nav\u00edc podle expert\u016f je nyn\u00ed rubl kv\u016fli restrikc\u00edm centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky na pohyb kapit\u00e1lu m\u00e9n\u011b ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n spekulanty, a proto m\u00e9n\u011b siln\u011b reaguje na mnoh\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti.<\/strong><\/div>\n
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V \u00fater\u00fd 28. \u010dervna rusk\u00e1 m\u011bna na moskevsk\u00e9 burze prudce vzrostla.\u00a0V polovin\u011b dne se kurz dolaru sn\u00ed\u017eil o 2,2 % a poprv\u00e9 od kv\u011btna 2015 dos\u00e1hl 52,2 rubl\u016f.\u00a0Kurz eura ve stejnou dobu klesl o 2,3% – na 55,02 rubl\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Akcie rusk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed mezit\u00edm b\u011bhem obchodn\u00ed seance m\u00edrn\u011b klesly.\u00a0Index Moskevsk\u00e9 burzy se tak sn\u00ed\u017eil o 1% na 2392 bod\u016f a index RTS – o 0,6% na 1419 bod\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bna a akciov\u00fd trh prakticky nereagovaly na prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed ratingov\u00e9 agentury Moody’s o rusk\u00e9m \u201edefaultu\u201c na eurobondy.\u00a0V\u010dera ve\u010der spole\u010dnost ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee zahrani\u010dn\u00edm kupc\u016fm rusk\u00fdch dluhov\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f nebyly v\u010das zaplaceny p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9 \u00faroky.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eDr\u017eitel\u00e9 rusk\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhu 27. \u010dervna neobdr\u017eeli kuponov\u00e9 platby na dva eurobondy ve v\u00fd\u0161i 100 milion\u016f USD v dob\u011b, kdy vypr\u0161ela 30denn\u00ed lh\u016fta odkladu, co\u017e podle na\u0161\u00ed definice pova\u017eujeme za prodlen\u00ed… mo\u017enost dal\u0161\u00edho nespl\u00e1cen\u00ed budouc\u00edch kup\u00f3nov\u00fdch plateb,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed se ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ipome\u0148me, \u017ee selh\u00e1n\u00ed znamen\u00e1 odm\u00edtnut\u00ed dlu\u017en\u00edka plnit sv\u00e9 pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1vazky.\u00a0Za norm\u00e1ln\u00edch podm\u00ednek tato situace vede\u00a0<\/span>k prudk\u00e9mu odlivu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kapit\u00e1lu a omezen\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edstupu zem\u011b k mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm p\u016fj\u010dk\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko je v\u0161ak ji\u017e dnes chr\u00e1n\u011bno z\u00e1padn\u00edmi sankcemi z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho dluhov\u00e9ho trhu, \u0159ekl v rozhovoru pro RT Dmitrij Babin, expert na akciov\u00fd trh BCS World of Investments.\u00a0Nav\u00edc podle n\u011bj byla d\u0159\u00edve ekonomika zem\u011b slab\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch p\u016fj\u010dk\u00e1ch, tak\u017ee prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Moody’s nem\u011blo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vliv na rubl a hodnotu rusk\u00fdch akci\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eKrom\u011b toho podm\u00ednky pro \u201edefault\u201c nebyly vytvo\u0159eny kv\u016fli insolvenci Ruska, ale kv\u016fli odm\u00edtnut\u00ed t\u0159et\u00edch stran kv\u016fli sankc\u00edm prov\u00e1d\u011bt platby za rusk\u00e9 dluhopisy.\u00a0Z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska je tedy st\u011b\u017e\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee by to v\u00e1\u017en\u011b ovlivnilo glob\u00e1ln\u00ed pov\u011bst Ruska jako spolehliv\u00e9ho dlu\u017en\u00edka,\u201c zd\u016fraznil Babin.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

„Ne na\u0161e probl\u00e9my“<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

V\u0161imn\u011bte si, \u017ee Rusko financuje \u010d\u00e1st ekonomick\u00fdch projekt\u016f prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm extern\u00edch p\u016fj\u010dek \u2013 s pomoc\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f.\u00a0Zejm\u00e9na mluv\u00edme o tzv. eurobondech, kter\u00e9 jsou denominov\u00e1ny v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b a p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed dluhov\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky garantovan\u00e9 vl\u00e1dou.\u00a0Investo\u0159i nakupuj\u00ed cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry vydan\u00e9 Ministerstvem financ\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace a mus\u00ed z nich m\u00edt stabiln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjem.\u00a0Dr\u017eitel\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f tak p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed pen\u00edze rusk\u00e9 ekonomice.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eExtern\u00ed p\u016fj\u010dky jsou jedn\u00edm ze zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak stimulovat ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst, kdy\u017e st\u00e1t z\u00edsk\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edliv finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f.\u00a0Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed dluh Ruska je v\u0161ak nyn\u00ed na minim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovni ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s t\u00edm, co bylo p\u0159ed 10\u201315 lety.\u00a0Situace proto nen\u00ed tak v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1, jak se sna\u017e\u00ed uk\u00e1zat na Z\u00e1pad\u011b a zveli\u010duj\u00ed t\u00e9ma kolem defaultu, \u201c\u0159ekl novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm Ar\u0165om Deev, vedouc\u00ed analytick\u00e9ho odd\u011blen\u00ed AMarkets.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017e 27. kv\u011btna muselo Rusko vyplatit v\u00fdnosy z kup\u00f3n\u016f na eurobondy v celkov\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i asi 100 milion\u016f\u00a0<\/span>dolar\u016f<\/span><\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 ministerstvo financ\u00ed se v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00e9ho kroku ze strany Washingtonu rozhodlo jednat proaktivn\u011b a sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky splnilo s p\u0159edstihem \u2013 20. kv\u011btna.\u00a0Investo\u0159i v\u0161ak nikdy nedostali pro n\u011b ur\u010den\u00e9 pen\u00edze a Rusko m\u011blo 30denn\u00ed lh\u016ftu na splacen\u00ed dluhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vypo\u0159\u00e1dac\u00ed a clearingov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my podle ministerstva financ\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace dost\u00e1valy prost\u0159edky p\u0159edem, ale samy je nep\u0159inesly investor\u016fm.\u00a0Sou\u010dasnou situaci tak nelze pova\u017eovat za \u201ev\u00fdchoz\u00ed akci\u201c, je si ministerstvo jisto.\u00a0Podobnou pozici zast\u00e1v\u00e1 i Kreml.\u00a0Jak ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve \u0159ekl prezident\u016fv tiskov\u00fd tajemn\u00edk Dmitrij Peskov, obvin\u011bn\u00ed z platebn\u00ed neschopnosti v Rusku jsou absolutn\u011b nepodlo\u017een\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cJe\u0161t\u011b v kv\u011btnu byla provedena nezbytn\u00e1 platba v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b a skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Euroclear (belgick\u00e1 spole\u010dnost poskytuj\u00edc\u00ed bankovn\u00ed a poji\u0161\u0165ovac\u00ed slu\u017eby. – InKur<\/span>) tyto pen\u00edze zadr\u017eela, nep\u0159inesla je p\u0159\u00edjemci, ji\u017e nen\u00ed na\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem.\u00a0Nen\u00ed d\u016fvod naz\u00fdvat situaci defaultem,\u201c zd\u016fraznil mluv\u010d\u00ed Kremlu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee dnes Moody’s, stejn\u011b jako mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed agentury Fitch a Standard & Poor’s, nemohou ofici\u00e1ln\u011b rozhodnout o selh\u00e1n\u00ed, proto\u017ee v\u0161echny t\u0159i spole\u010dnosti st\u00e1hly sv\u00e9 ratingy z Rusk\u00e9 federace d\u0159\u00edve.\u00a0Natalya Milchakova, p\u0159edn\u00ed analyti\u010dka spole\u010dnosti Freedom Finance Investment Company, o tom \u0159ekla v rozhovoru pro m\u00e9dia.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00dast\u0159ed\u00ed t\u011bchto agentur se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v USA a Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, jejich\u017e \u00fa\u0159ady zak\u00e1zaly spole\u010dnostem registrovan\u00fdm v jejich zem\u00edch poskytovat Rusku slu\u017eby p\u0159i p\u0159id\u011blov\u00e1n\u00ed rating\u016f jeho dluhov\u00fdm z\u00e1vazk\u016fm.\u00a0Agentury proto opustily Rusko a st\u00e1hly v\u0161echny \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 ratingy rusk\u00fdch emitent\u016f, \u201cuvedl \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u011bnov\u00e9 benchmarky<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

Slab\u00e1 reakce rublu a akciov\u00fdch index\u016f na ozn\u00e1men\u00ed Moody’s o \u201edefaultu\u201c m\u016f\u017ee souviset i s n\u00edzkou aktivitou spekulant\u016f na rusk\u00e9m finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu.\u00a0Vladislav Antonov, finan\u010dn\u00ed analytik spole\u010dnosti BitRiver, sd\u00edlel tento n\u00e1zor v rozhovoru pro m\u00e9dia. Kv\u016fli omezen\u00edm pohybu kapit\u00e1lu ze strany centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky podle n\u011bj \u0159ada investor\u016f zaujala vy\u010dk\u00e1vac\u00ed postoj, tak\u017ee trh h\u016f\u0159e reaguje na mnoh\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 a geopolitick\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eZ\u00e1rove\u0148 nyn\u00ed hraje ve prosp\u011bch pos\u00edlen\u00ed rublu \u0159ada faktor\u016f.\u00a0Popt\u00e1vka po m\u011bn\u011b ze strany dovozc\u016f z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00edzk\u00e1, proto\u017ee dod\u00e1vky zbo\u017e\u00ed ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed klesly v d\u016fsledku sankc\u00ed a naru\u0161en\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f.\u00a0Vysok\u00e9 ceny ropy z\u00e1rove\u0148 tvo\u0159\u00ed velk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy pro export\u00e9ry, kte\u0159\u00ed je n\u00e1sledn\u011b vym\u011b\u0148uj\u00ed za rubly, \u201cpoznamenal expert.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b Rusov\u00e9 tak\u00e9 za\u010dali aktivn\u011b prod\u00e1vat dolary a eura pot\u00e9, co banky\u00a0<\/span>za\u010daly zav\u00e1d\u011bt provize<\/span><\/a>\u00a0za obsluhu \u00fa\u010dt\u016f v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm Gazprom pokra\u010duje v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch plynu do Evropy za rubly, co\u017e pom\u00e1h\u00e1 posilovat ruskou m\u011bnu proti evropsk\u00e9, dodal Antonov.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak nazna\u010dil analytik Finam FG Alexander Potavin v rozhovoru, za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek m\u016f\u017ee kurz dolaru na moskevsk\u00e9 burze v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti klesnout a\u017e k 50 rubl\u016fm. V budoucnu se v\u0161ak ukazatel vr\u00e1t\u00ed na \u00farove\u0148 60-70 rubl\u016f, specialista si je jist\u00fd.\u00a0Podobn\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed sd\u00edl\u00ed Artyom Deev.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eSituace na devizov\u00e9m trhu se m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit, proto\u017ee dovozy u\u017e za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011b r\u016fst.\u00a0Spole\u010dnosti zav\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed nov\u00e1 logistick\u00e1 sch\u00e9mata, vyv\u00edj\u00ed se program\u00a0<\/span>paraleln\u00edho dovozu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0M\u011blo by se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee kv\u016fli tomu se do konce l\u00e9ta sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz postupn\u011b vr\u00e1t\u00ed na \u00farove\u0148 nad 70 rubl\u016f za dolar, co\u017e nal\u00e9hav\u011b pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed exportuj\u00edc\u00ed spole\u010dnosti a rozpo\u010det, \u201cuzav\u0159el Deev.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Na aukci v \u00fater\u00fd 28. \u010dervna klesl kurz dolaru na moskevsk\u00e9 burze poprv\u00e9 po sedmi…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9857,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[503,2688,2113],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11936"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11936"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11936\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9857"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}