{"id":119161,"date":"2026-10-23T00:34:53","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T22:34:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119161"},"modified":"2026-10-22T18:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T16:00:00","slug":"rijad-tvrdi-ze-jeho-ropny-system-je-neporuseny-cisla-vsak-vypovidaji-neco-jineho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/23\/rijad-tvrdi-ze-jeho-ropny-system-je-neporuseny-cisla-vsak-vypovidaji-neco-jineho\/","title":{"rendered":"Rij\u00e1d tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee jeho ropn\u00fd syst\u00e9m je neporu\u0161en\u00fd. \u010c\u00edsla v\u0161ak vypov\u00eddaj\u00ed n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel spole\u010dnosti Aramco Amin Nasser ujistil trhy, \u017ee \u201en\u00e1\u0161 syst\u00e9m je neporu\u0161en\u00fd\u201c a \u017ee Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie by mohla b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed obnovit svou plnou kapacitu 12 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b. Je to uklid\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1va a Washington, evropsk\u00e9 metropole a obchodn\u00edci s ropou maj\u00ed v\u0161echny d\u016fvody j\u00ed v\u011b\u0159it. Nen\u00ed to pravda.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Karl Miller pr\u00e1v\u011b dokon\u010dil 37slajdovou provozn\u00ed anal\u00fdzu sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00e1 zahrnuje v\u0161e od ropn\u00fdch pol\u00ed a\u017e po sklady paliva, k 20. \u0159\u00edjnu. Pe\u010dliv\u011b jsem si ji p\u0159e\u010detl. Je to nejpe\u010dliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed popis t\u011bchto ztr\u00e1t, se kter\u00fdm jsem se setkal, a pe\u010dliv\u00fd zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00fd by m\u011bl znepokojit ka\u017ed\u00e9ho, kdo se letos v zim\u011b spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na sa\u00fadskoarabskou ropu. Miller nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 bravuru H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f, videa na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch ani oblaka kou\u0159e jako ztr\u00e1ty. Odd\u011bluje potvrzen\u00e9 z\u00e1sahy od pouh\u00fdch obvin\u011bn\u00ed a odm\u00edt\u00e1 s\u010d\u00edtat nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacitu ka\u017ed\u00e9ho posti\u017een\u00e9ho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, jako by selhalo v\u0161echna sou\u010dasn\u011b. I p\u0159es ve\u0161kerou tuto discipl\u00ednu je obraz pochmurn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010ctvrtina sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9ho financov\u00e1n\u00ed zmizela<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm \u010d\u00edslem. V \u00fanoru, p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou, produkovala Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 10,88 milionu barel\u016f ropy denn\u011b. V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed to bylo st\u00e1le o 2,51 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje pokles o 23 procent. V srpnu \u010dinil deficit 4,64 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, kdy\u017e produkce klesla na zhruba 6,24 milionu. Od b\u0159ezna do z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed vyprodukovalo o v\u00edce ne\u017e 800 milion\u016f barel\u016f m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e by vyprodukovalo p\u0159i \u00fanorov\u00e9m tempu. To je zhruba osmidenn\u00ed objem celkov\u00e9 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed spot\u0159eby ropy, kter\u00e1 nikdy nespat\u0159ila sv\u011btlo sv\u011bta.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00da\u010detnictv\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Aramco vypr\u00e1v\u00ed stejn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh. Podle \u00fadaj\u016f, kter\u00e9 spole\u010dnost vyk\u00e1zala, klesla produkce kapaln\u00e9 ropy z 10,56 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed na 7,57 milionu ve druh\u00e9m, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje pokles o 28 procent za jedno \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. Produkce zemn\u00edho plynu a etanu klesla o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 6 procent. Spole\u010dnost se zdrav\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem by takov\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla neuvedla.<\/span><\/p>\n

Export sledoval pokles produkce. V s\u00e9rii konzistentn\u00edch z\u00e1znam\u016f klesl export sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 ropy ze 7,27 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b v \u00fanoru na 3,70 milionu v srpnu, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje pokles o 49 procent. V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed se zotavil na 5,62 milionu, ale st\u00e1le je to o 23 procent m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po\u0161kozen\u00ed se rozprost\u00edr\u00e1 v cel\u00e9m \u0159et\u011bzci<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

D\u016fvod, pro\u010d se obnova st\u00e1le zdr\u017euje, je ten, \u017ee \u0161kody nejsou soust\u0159ed\u011bny na jednom m\u00edst\u011b. Rozprost\u00edraj\u00ed se od \u00fast\u00ed vrtu a\u017e po \u010derpac\u00ed stanici.<\/span><\/p>\n

V pop\u0159ed\u00ed z\u00e1jmu utrp\u011bl v \u010dervenci fyzick\u00e9 po\u0161kozen\u00ed komplex Abqaiq, za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zpracov\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161inu sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9 lehk\u00e9 ropy p\u0159ed jej\u00edm odesl\u00e1n\u00edm nebo rafinac\u00ed. V b\u0159eznu se produkce v pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edch pol\u00edch Safaniya, Marj\u00e1n, Zuluf a Abu Safa sn\u00ed\u017eila p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 2 a\u017e 2,5 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. V dubnu ztratily t\u011b\u017eebn\u00ed pole Khurais a Manifa shodn\u011b 300 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uprost\u0159ed \u0159et\u011bzce je p\u011bt hlavn\u00edch rafineri\u00ed kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed po\u0161kozen\u00fdch nebo mimo provoz. Ras Tanura, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed rafinerie s kapacitou 550 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, vyho\u0159ela a v b\u0159eznu byla odstavena. SATORP v D\u017eubajlu ztratila v dubnu t\u0159i \u010d\u00e1sti za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, byla znovu spu\u0161t\u011bna na polovi\u010dn\u00ed kapacitu a v kv\u011btnu st\u00e1le fungovala pouze na zhruba 70 procentech. SAMREF v Janb\u00fa byl zasa\u017een v b\u0159eznu. Rafinerie v Rij\u00e1du za\u010dala 3. \u0159\u00edjna ho\u0159et. D\u017eaz\u00e1n, za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed s kapacitou 400 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, kter\u00e9 je navr\u017eeno k v\u00fdrob\u011b 250 000 barel\u016f n\u00edzkosirn\u00e9 motorov\u00e9 nafty denn\u011b, bylo odstaveno 27. \u010dervence pot\u00e9, co byla zasa\u017eena jeho elektr\u00e1rna a skladovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, a \u00fatoky skupiny Ansar Allah v srpnu a z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed zma\u0159ily jak\u00fdkoli pokus o jeho op\u011btovn\u00e9 spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. Satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky nyn\u00ed tak\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed po\u0161kozen\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee v Petro Rabigh. Z\u00e1vod na zkapal\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed plynu D\u017euajma, kter\u00fd dod\u00e1v\u00e1 sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00fd LPG na export, byl zasa\u017een po\u017e\u00e1ry.<\/span><\/p>\n

V zadn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti se postupn\u011b demontuje syst\u00e9m skladov\u00e1n\u00ed a distribuce paliva. Z\u00e1b\u011bry z tankovi\u0161t\u011b Abha po\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 13. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed ukazuj\u00ed \u0161est zjevn\u011b zni\u010den\u00fdch a osm dal\u0161\u00edch po\u0161kozen\u00fdch tank\u016f. 19. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed ho\u0159el sklad pobl\u00ed\u017e leti\u0161t\u011b v Rij\u00e1du. Tankovi\u0161t\u011b D\u017eaz\u00e1n byla zasa\u017eena opakovan\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

A ropovod V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad, jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie dostat ropu do Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a obej\u00edt uzav\u0159en\u00fd Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, byl opakovan\u011b zasa\u017een. V dubnu byla uzav\u0159ena \u010derpac\u00ed kapacita 700 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b. V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed opakovan\u00e9 \u00fatoky ochromily t\u0159i \u010derpac\u00ed stanice, co\u017e zp\u016fsobilo, \u017ee ropovod byl zastaven, dokud nebyl 22. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed znovu spu\u0161t\u011bn n\u00edzk\u00fdm v\u00fdkonem. Ve dnech 4. a 5. \u0159\u00edjna byla hl\u00e1\u0161ena v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 \u0161koda na dal\u0161\u00ed \u010derpac\u00ed stanici pobl\u00ed\u017e Ch\u00farais. Ministr energetiky nyn\u00ed uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee ropovod provozuje 5,8 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacitou 7 milion\u016f. Dokonce i Miller poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee nikdo mimo Aramco skute\u010dn\u00fd pr\u016ftok nem\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro\u010d opravy nedr\u017e\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Miller\u016fv kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd post\u0159eh je, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o syst\u00e9m a syst\u00e9my selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m nejslab\u0161\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku. Jazan je toho nejjasn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem. Oprava ropn\u00fdch jednotek je zbyte\u010dn\u00e1, pokud je po\u0161kozen\u00fd zply\u0148ovac\u00ed z\u00e1vod a elektr\u00e1rna, kter\u00e1 provozuje rafinerii, a oprava elektr\u00e1rny je zbyte\u010dn\u00e1, pokud neexistuj\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee pro skladov\u00e1n\u00ed nafty. Rafinerie m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt na pap\u00ed\u0159e \u201erestartov\u00e1na\u201c a st\u00e1le neprodukovat nic pou\u017eiteln\u00e9ho. Stejn\u00e1 logika plat\u00ed i pro oblast ropy a plynu. Ropn\u00e9 pole se v\u0161emi neporu\u0161en\u00fdmi vrty mus\u00ed b\u00fdt st\u00e1le uzav\u0159eno, pokud je vadn\u00fd n\u00e1sledn\u00fd zpracovatelsk\u00fd z\u00e1vod nebo \u010derpac\u00ed stanice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poka\u017ed\u00e9, kdy\u017e Aramco oprav\u00ed jeden \u010dl\u00e1nek, je po\u0161kozen dal\u0161\u00ed. Proto se ozn\u00e1men\u00ed o restartov\u00e1n\u00ed neprom\u00edtaj\u00ed do \u00fadaj\u016f o produkci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii doch\u00e1zej\u00ed z\u00e1soby prodejn\u00e9ho paliva<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Nejv\u00edce alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla v Millerov\u011b zpr\u00e1v\u011b se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f. Do \u010dervence, posledn\u00edho m\u011bs\u00edce s kompletn\u00edmi \u00fadaji, klesla produkce sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00fdch rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00fanorem o 534 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 18 procent. Produkce nafty klesla o 21 procent. Export nafty klesl o 47 procent, z 848 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b na 446 000. Export benzinu klesl o 40 procent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 tuto mezeru zmen\u0161ili vypr\u00e1zdn\u011bn\u00edm sv\u00fdch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed. Z\u00e1soby nafty klesly z 25,6 milionu barel\u016f v \u00fanoru na 16,6 milionu v \u010dervenci, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje pokles o 35 procent. Z\u00e1soby benzinu klesly ve stejn\u00e9m pom\u011bru. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd v\u00fdvozce ropy v\u00edce ne\u017e zdvojn\u00e1sobil sv\u016fj dovoz topn\u00e9ho oleje a ve sv\u00fdch elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1ch spaluje p\u0159\u00edmo v\u00edce ne\u017e dvakr\u00e1t tolik ropy ne\u017e v \u00fanoru. \u010c\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b je to zp\u016fsobeno letn\u00edm zat\u00ed\u017een\u00edm klimatizac\u00ed, ale \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b s p\u0159ebytkem paliva se takto nechov\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby znamenaj\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed rezervu pro dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fatok. A dojde k dal\u0161\u00edmu \u00fatoku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Past, v n\u00ed\u017e je Rij\u00e1d uv\u011bzn\u011bn<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Millerova zpr\u00e1va identifikuje dal\u0161\u00ed nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, o kter\u00e9m jsem nikde jinde nevid\u011bl diskutovan\u00e9. Pokud se sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9 exportn\u00ed trasy uzav\u0159ou, jej\u00ed ropa nebude m\u00edt jinou mo\u017enost ne\u017e vlastn\u00ed rafinerie, elektr\u00e1rny a skladovac\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee. V \u010dervenci dom\u00e1c\u00ed rafinerie a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na okam\u017eit\u00e9 spalov\u00e1n\u00ed absorbovaly p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3,04 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. Jakmile se z\u00e1sobn\u00edky napln\u00ed, je to zhruba horn\u00ed hranice toho, co by Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie mohla nad\u00e1le produkovat. Pokud by byly Ras Tanura a Yanbu uzav\u0159eny sou\u010dasn\u011b, kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed by muselo uzav\u0159\u00edt v\u011bt\u0161inu sv\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch pol\u00ed. P\u0159esn\u011b tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 m\u00e1 vyvolat kampa\u0148 Ansar Allah proti ropovodu, termin\u00e1l\u016fm v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i a Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro\u010d se to t\u00fdk\u00e1 v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Zbytek sv\u011bta ji\u017e poci\u0165uje n\u00e1sledky. Sa\u00fadsk\u00fd export nafty klesl o zhruba 400 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, a to pr\u00e1v\u011b v dob\u011b, kdy je omezen provoz Hormuzsk\u00e9ho lo\u017eiska a rusk\u00e9 rafinerie jsou pod \u00fatokem dron\u016f. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 agentura uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee celosv\u011btov\u00fd nedostatek nafty potrv\u00e1 a\u017e do roku 2027. Ropa Brent se obchoduje nad 100 dolary. Evropa, kter\u00e1 je z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 naft\u011b, ji\u017e za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 nepokoje kv\u016fli \u017eivotn\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm a to zima je\u0161t\u011b ani neza\u010dala.<\/span><\/p>\n

Miller netvrd\u00ed, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd barel ztracen\u00e9 produkce byl zni\u010den raketou H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f, a to v\u00fdslovn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed. \u010c\u00e1st poklesu odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed u\u010din\u011bn\u00e1 v oblasti lodn\u00ed dopravy, bezpe\u010dnosti a obchodu. Jde v\u0161ak o to, \u017ee pro \u0159idi\u010de kamionu na dlouh\u00e9 trasy v Lyonu nebo farm\u00e1\u0159e v Lombardii nehraje roli, zda byl barel ztracen kv\u016fli raket\u011b, zablokovan\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trase nebo rafinerii bez proudu. Je pry\u010d tak \u010di onak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee kdy\u017e Aramco tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee jeho syst\u00e9m je v po\u0159\u00e1dku, je t\u0159eba se zeptat, co \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed \u00fadaje o produkci, exportu a z\u00e1sob\u00e1ch paliva. Ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie produkuje o \u010dtvrtinu m\u00e9n\u011b ropy ne\u017e v \u00fanoru, vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed o polovinu m\u00e9n\u011b nafty a vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u00e9 rezervy, aby udr\u017eela sv\u011btla v chodu. Jak\u00e1koli nov\u00e1 americk\u00e1 nebo izraelsk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu naraz\u00ed na sa\u00fadsk\u00fd energetick\u00fd syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd u\u017e nem\u00e1 absolutn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dnou kapacitu ji absorbovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Larry C. Johnson<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel spole\u010dnosti Aramco Amin Nasser ujistil trhy, \u017ee \u201en\u00e1\u0161 syst\u00e9m je…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119162,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,371,310,1012],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119161"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119161"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119161\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119162"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}