{"id":119124,"date":"2026-10-23T00:20:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T22:20:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119124"},"modified":"2026-10-22T12:42:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T10:42:48","slug":"larry-c-johnson-isw-a-zmensujici-se-valka-s-ni-stejne-jako-dron-vypusteny-z-polska","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/23\/larry-c-johnson-isw-a-zmensujici-se-valka-s-ni-stejne-jako-dron-vypusteny-z-polska\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry C. Johnson: ISW a zmen\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se v\u00e1lka s n\u00ed, stejn\u011b jako dron vypu\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd z Polska"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pokud sv\u00e9 ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b zalo\u017e\u00edte na \u00fadaj\u00edch Institutu pro studium v\u00e1lky (ISW), m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e1m b\u00fdt odpu\u0161t\u011bno, \u017ee se domn\u00edv\u00e1te, \u017ee Rusko v roce 2026 jednodu\u0161e ne\u010dinn\u011b st\u00e1lo na m\u00edst\u011b. Podle zpr\u00e1v z nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch hodnocen\u00ed ISW dosahuj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed zisky Ruska v tomto roce zhruba 100 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch, tedy asi 40 mil \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch \u2013 co\u017e je oblast men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Washington, D.C. Obdivovatel\u00e9 ISW v ukrajinsk\u00e9m a z\u00e1padn\u00edm tisku z toho ud\u011blali titulek: Putin podle nich sv\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed zisky 45kr\u00e1t zveli\u010dil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tomu nev\u011b\u0159\u00edm a \u010d\u00edsla p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00e1 Putinovi minul\u00fd t\u00fdden ukazuj\u00ed pro\u010d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co Gerasimov \u0159ekl Putinovi<\/span><\/h2>\n

16. \u0159\u00edjna Putin p\u0159ijal situa\u010dn\u00ed briefing od n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Valerije Gerasimova. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 postava: Od 1. ledna se pod ruskou kontrolu dostalo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 6 500 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch (asi 2 500 mil \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch) a 310 nasel\u00ed. Gerasimov informoval, \u017ee jen od 1. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed Rusko obsadilo v\u00edce ne\u017e 1 800 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch a 92 nasel\u00ed. V Don\u011bck\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 republice se v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b \u0159\u00edjna zm\u011bnilo majitele p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 500 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch a 23 nasel\u00ed. Skupina Vostok dobyla 10 nasel\u00ed a v\u00edce ne\u017e 180 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 oblasti. Luhansk\u00e1 oblast je nyn\u00ed zcela pod ruskou kontrolou. Ukrajina st\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed o n\u011bco v\u00edce ne\u017e 10 procent Don\u011bck\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 republiky a 16,5 procenta Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 oblasti.<\/span><\/p>\n

V situaci se tak\u00e9 popsala bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00f3na pod\u00e9l hranice se Sumskou a Charkovskou oblast\u00ed. Z 660 kilometr\u016f dlouh\u00e9ho p\u00e1su je nyn\u00ed pod ruskou kontrolou 465 kilometr\u016f, tedy t\u0159i \u010dtvrtiny. Samotn\u00e9 z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed t\u00e9to z\u00f3ny se vztahovalo na v\u00edce ne\u017e 3 000 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejedn\u00e1 se o abstraktn\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla. T\u00fddenn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy ministerstva obrany uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed jednotliv\u00e9 vesnice jednotliv\u011b. V t\u00fddnu od 10. do 16. \u0159\u00edjna: Luka\u0161ovo, Lobanovka, Resnikovo, Kupino, Nefedovka, \u010cornoje, Varvarovka a Nikolajevka v Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti; Novotroitskoje, Petrovskoje a Lidino v Don\u011bck\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 republice; a Nikolskoje v Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 oblasti. V t\u00fddnu od 26. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed do 2. \u0159\u00edjna p\u0159ibylo jen v Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti dal\u0161\u00edch deset. K nim se p\u0159idaly Dobropolje, Sergejevka, Pervomajskoje a Alexejevo-Dru\u017ekovka v Don\u011bck\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 republice a v \u010dervenci m\u011bsto Konstantinovka.<\/span><\/p>\n

Matematika nesed\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Zkuste to te\u010f sladit se 100 kilometry \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edmi Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho socialistick\u00e9ho sv\u011bta (ISW). S 310 osadami na 100 kilometrech \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch zab\u00edr\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00e9 z nich zhruba t\u0159etinu kilometru \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edho, tedy asi 80 akr\u016f. To nen\u00ed vesnice s poli, ulicemi a \u0159adami strom\u016f. To je farma. Jedno m\u011bsto o velikosti Konstantinovky by samo o sob\u011b u\u017e p\u0159edstavovalo velkou \u010d\u00e1st cel\u00e9ho roku ISW.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nemus\u00edte jen v\u011b\u0159it rusk\u00fdm \u010d\u00edsl\u016fm. DeepState, ukrajinsk\u00fd mapovac\u00ed projekt, kter\u00fd nikdy nebyl obvin\u011bn z toho, \u017ee je mluv\u010d\u00edm Kremlu, \u010d\u00edt\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1300 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch, kter\u00e9 Rusko obsadilo mezi lednem a polovinou \u0159\u00edjna. To je t\u0159in\u00e1ctin\u00e1sobek \u010d\u00edsla, kter\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u00ed ISW.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak tedy ISW dosp\u011bje k \u010d\u00edslu 100? Jeho \u010d\u00edslo je \u010dist\u00e1 hodnota. Od \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Ukrajina \u00fadajn\u011b dobyla zp\u011bt ve sv\u00fdch protiofenz\u00edv\u00e1ch letos, ode\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Rusko dobylo. Pro toto tvrzen\u00ed v\u0161ak neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy. ISW nav\u00edc po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 pouze pokroky, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee potvrdit pomoc\u00ed geoloka\u010dn\u00edch sn\u00edmk\u016f. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee jej\u00ed mapy zaost\u00e1vaj\u00ed za frontovou lini\u00ed a systematicky nezohled\u0148uj\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed zisky v oblastech, ze kter\u00fdch je p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161eno jen m\u00e1lo sn\u00edmk\u016f. Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00f3na v Sumsk\u00e9 a Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti, kter\u00e1 se skl\u00e1d\u00e1 p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b z pol\u00ed a les\u016f a m\u00e1 jen m\u00e1lo kamer, je p\u0159esn\u011b t\u00edm typem oblasti, kter\u00e1 propad\u00e1 trhlinami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin uvedl, \u017ee Rusko v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dobylo 1 301 kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch; ministerstvo obrany v polovin\u011b m\u011bs\u00edce uv\u00e1d\u011blo 670 a jin\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia informovala o 858. \u010c\u00e1st z t\u011bchto 6 500 je nepochybn\u011b zalo\u017eena na velkorys\u00e9m zaokrouhlov\u00e1n\u00ed, dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st na \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b, kterou rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da kontroluje, ale dosud neobsadila. Pravda pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b le\u017e\u00ed n\u011bkde mezi 1 300 \u00fadaji z Hlubok\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a 6 500 \u00fadaji z Gerasimova. Co to nen\u00ed: 100. Tak mal\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo nen\u00ed anal\u00fdza. M\u00e1 uklidnit z\u00e1padn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00e9 se rad\u011bji neptaj\u00ed, \u010deho jejich politika dos\u00e1hla.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dron, kter\u00fd p\u0159elet\u011bl Polsko<\/span><\/h2>\n

Druh\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh t\u00fddne je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, proto\u017ee by mohl v\u00e1lku roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle rusk\u00e9ho ministerstva obrany Ukrajina v noci 18. \u0159\u00edjna vypustila proti Rusku v\u00edce ne\u017e 1000 dron\u016f \u2013 \u0161lo o nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fatok sv\u00e9ho druhu ve v\u00e1lce. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed t\u00edhu \u00fatoku nesl Petrohrad a Leningradsk\u00e1 oblast. Petrohradsk\u00fd ropn\u00fd termin\u00e1l a sklad Ru\u010dji byly zap\u00e1leny, datov\u00e9 centrum VK bylo zasa\u017eeno, leti\u0161t\u011b Pulkovo z\u016fstalo osm hodin uzav\u0159eno a nejm\u00e9n\u011b jedna osoba byla zabita. Jeden z dron\u016f nedos\u00e1hl sv\u00e9ho c\u00edle. Explodoval v litevsk\u00e9m okrese Pasvalys a narazil do jedouc\u00edho auta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Litevsk\u00fd ministr obrany Robertas Kaunas uvedl, \u017ee dron vstoupil do litevsk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru z polsk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru. Litevsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee \u201enen\u00ed pochyb\u201c, \u017ee dron p\u0159ilet\u011bl z polsk\u00e9 strany, a Vilnius tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00e1 v\u011brohodn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy o tom, \u017ee dron p\u0159ekro\u010dil polsk\u00e9 hranice. Ukrajina p\u0159iznala, \u017ee dron byl ukrajinsk\u00fd, omluvila se a za odklon\u011bn\u00ed jeho kurzu obvinila rusk\u00e9 syst\u00e9my elektronick\u00e9ho boje. Var\u0161ava zase tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee jej\u00ed radar nezaznamenal p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed hranice, pop\u00edr\u00e1 unikl\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee dron byl odp\u00e1len z Litvy, a premi\u00e9r Donald Tusk po\u017eaduje od Kyjeva vysv\u011btlen\u00ed. Oba spojenci v NATO nyn\u00ed z\u0159\u00eddili spole\u010dn\u00fd vy\u0161et\u0159ovac\u00ed t\u00fdm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Var\u0161avsk\u00e1 pop\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed se neshoduj\u00ed s t\u00edm, co jsem se dozv\u011bd\u011bl, a zatoulan\u00fd dron v Litv\u011b je tou men\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu. Nez\u00e1visl\u00fd zdroj mi sd\u011blil, \u017ee dron, kter\u00fd zas\u00e1hl Petrohrad, byl odp\u00e1len z m\u00edsta v Polsku. Nebyla to ukrajinsk\u00e1 zbra\u0148, kter\u00e1 by se n\u00e1hodou zatoulala polsk\u00fdm vzdu\u0161n\u00fdm prostorem. \u00datok na druh\u00e9 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 m\u011bsto za\u010dal na polsk\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b. To je rozd\u00edl mezi trapn\u00fdm incidentem a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm \u010dinem. \u00datok na Petrohrad zah\u00e1jen\u00fd z \u00fazem\u00ed \u010dlena NATO \u010din\u00ed z Polska spolupachatele tohoto \u00fatoku \u2013 bez ohledu na to, co jeho vl\u00e1da ve\u0159ejn\u011b \u0159\u00edk\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

To mnoh\u00e9 vysv\u011btluje. Rusk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia nyn\u00ed trasu naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed \u201ebaltskou trasou\u201c: ukrajinsk\u00e9 drony dlouh\u00e9ho doletu l\u00e9taj\u00ed pod\u00e9l hranice NATO, p\u0159es polsk\u00fd a pobaltsk\u00fd vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor, kam rusk\u00e1 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e1 obrana nedos\u00e1hne, a pot\u00e9 se st\u00e1\u010dej\u00ed na v\u00fdchod k Rusku. Ukrajinsk\u00e9 drony m\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00ed do Ruska se letos ji\u017e n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t zatoulaly do Litvy, Loty\u0161ska, Estonska a Finska. Odpalovac\u00ed m\u00edsto v Polsku zkracuje let do Petrohradu, drony se po v\u011bt\u0161inu cesty nach\u00e1zej\u00ed mimo b\u011bloruskou a ruskou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu a operaci za\u0159azuje pod ochranu protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany NATO. Litev\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed byli otev\u0159en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Var\u0161ava, ji\u017e uvedli, \u017ee dron, kter\u00fd havaroval v jejich zemi, poch\u00e1zel z polsk\u00e9 strany \u2013 co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 stejn\u00e9mu vzorci. Moskva nebude zemi, ze kter\u00e9 byl \u00fatok na Petrohrad zah\u00e1jen, pova\u017eovat za pouh\u00e9ho p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eej\u00edc\u00edho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010dne Rusko odvetu proti Polsku?<\/span><\/h2>\n

P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee ano. Ve\u0159ejn\u011b Kreml zat\u00edm zast\u00e1val zdr\u017eenlivost. Peskovova reakce na \u00fatoky na Petrohrad byla, \u017ee Rusko ji\u017e \u201eneust\u00e1le\u201c \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Ukrajinu, a 20. \u0159\u00edjna ministerstvo obrany informovalo o \u00fatoc\u00edch na odpalovac\u00ed m\u00edsta ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f dlouh\u00e9ho doletu. Zat\u00edm se neobjevila \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 hrozba v\u016f\u010di Polsku. Moskva ale sv\u00e9 reakce jen z\u0159\u00eddka oznamuje p\u0159edem a d\u0159\u00edve stanovila jasnou hranici: St\u00e1t, kter\u00fd dovol\u00ed, aby jeho \u00fazem\u00ed bylo pou\u017eito k \u00fatok\u016fm na Rusko, se st\u00e1v\u00e1 stranou konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 k dispozici mo\u017enosti, kter\u00e9 jsou daleko za hranicemi otev\u0159en\u00e9ho boje, a m\u00e1 v\u0161echny d\u016fvody je vyu\u017e\u00edt: \u00fatoky na samotnou infrastrukturu pro odpalov\u00e1n\u00ed raket, elektronick\u00fd boj s dopady p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00edmi hranice, drony a rakety zkoumaj\u00edc\u00ed polsk\u00fd vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor, jak se to stalo v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025, sabot\u00e1\u017e logistick\u00fdch center z\u00e1sobuj\u00edc\u00edch Ukrajinu a tlak na Suvalsk\u00fd koridor mezi B\u011bloruskem a Kaliningradem. To v\u0161e by se mohlo st\u00e1t rychle. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 z t\u011bchto mo\u017enost\u00ed s sebou nese riziko eskalace, o kter\u00e9 nikdo ve Var\u0161av\u011b, Vilniusu ani Bruselu nesm\u011bl hlasovat. \u010cl\u00e1nek 5 NATO nikdy nem\u011bl chr\u00e1nit \u010dlena, kter\u00fd zah\u00e1j\u00ed \u00fatoky na rusk\u00e1 m\u011bsta a pot\u00e9 p\u0159edst\u00edr\u00e1 pobou\u0159en\u00ed, kdy\u017e Rusko zareaguje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ponau\u010den\u00ed zde navazuje na prvn\u00ed polovinu tohoto sloupku. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed politika v t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce se op\u00edr\u00e1 o \u0159adu uklid\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edch \u010d\u00edsel: Rusko sotva postupuje, Rusku doch\u00e1zej\u00ed mu\u017ei, Rusko se neodv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed reagovat. Pokud jsou tato \u010d\u00edsla chybn\u00e1, pak je chybn\u00e1 i politika, kter\u00e1 je na nich postavena. Sto kilometr\u016f \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch ISW d\u00e1v\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00edm v\u016fdc\u016fm dojem, \u017ee mohou neust\u00e1le eskalovat operace, ani\u017e by vznikly n\u00e1klady. \u00datok na Petrohrad zah\u00e1jen\u00fd z Polska, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m na litevsk\u00e9m poli explodoval zbloudil\u00fd dron, slou\u017e\u00ed jako p\u0159ipom\u00ednka toho, \u017ee n\u00e1klady jsou skute\u010dn\u00e9 a \u017ee se Rusko p\u0159ibli\u017euje k domovu.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pokud sv\u00e9 ch\u00e1p\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b zalo\u017e\u00edte na \u00fadaj\u00edch Institutu pro studium v\u00e1lky (ISW), m\u016f\u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119125,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,3727,31,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119124"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119124\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}