{"id":119112,"date":"2026-10-23T00:14:58","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T22:14:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119112"},"modified":"2026-10-22T12:24:31","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T10:24:31","slug":"vyssi-ceny-ropy-pravdepodobne-pretrvaji","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/23\/vyssi-ceny-ropy-pravdepodobne-pretrvaji\/","title":{"rendered":"Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny ropy pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159etrvaj\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch Trumpova administrativa hlasit\u011b prohla\u0161ovala, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n ztratil kontrolu nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed \u201eodborn\u00edci\u201c dokonce tvrdili, \u017ee se tok ropy <\/span>vr\u00e1til<\/span><\/a> na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ob\u011b tvrzen\u00ed byla nepravdiv\u00e1 a p\u0159edstavovala pouze kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy v nestabiln\u00edch datech. \u00datoky na lod\u011b proplouvaj\u00edc\u00ed pr\u016flivem se zv\u00fd\u0161ily. Tok ropy z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pod p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farovn\u00ed. Vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 vy\u010derpan\u00fdch z\u00e1sob pokra\u010duje. Cena ropy <\/span>roste<\/span><\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Futures kontrakty na ropu Brent s dod\u00e1n\u00edm v prosinci, kter\u00e9 jsou glob\u00e1ln\u00edm cenov\u00fdm benchmarkem, v \u00fater\u00fd uzav\u0159ely o 1,6 % v\u00fd\u0161e na 111,30 USD za barel. To p\u0159edstavuje m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst o 13,7 % a cena se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed uzav\u00edrac\u00ed \u00farovni od 19. kv\u011btna.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m ji\u017e nen\u00ed do\u010dasn\u00fd, proto\u017ee rostou<\/span><\/a> i dlouhodob\u00e9 ceny :<\/span><\/p>\n

Obchodn\u00edci s ropou st\u00e1le v\u00edce vn\u00edmaj\u00ed bitvu o Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv jako nov\u00fd norm\u00e1l. Futures kontrakty na ropu Brent s dod\u00e1n\u00edm v prosinci 2027 se nyn\u00ed obchoduj\u00ed za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 90 dolar\u016f za barel \u2013 co\u017e je historick\u00e9 maximum a v\u00fdznamn\u00fd skok ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s pouh\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady <\/span>na dopravu<\/span><\/a> je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ceny ropy. Pron\u00e1jem velmi velk\u00fdch n\u00e1kladn\u00edch lod\u00ed na p\u0159epravu ropy (VLCC), kter\u00e9 se pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed pro d\u00e1lkovou p\u0159epravu, je velmi drah\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159epravn\u00ed sazby VLCC z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu do \u010c\u00edny zpo\u010d\u00e1tku vzrostly z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 4 dolar\u016f za barel na 17 dolar\u016f za barel, ne\u017e se mezi dubnem a \u010dervencem ust\u00e1lily na 11\u201312 dolarech za barel. Vypr\u0161en\u00ed americko-\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v srpnu vyvolalo dal\u0161\u00ed prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst: Do konce z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed se p\u0159epravn\u00ed sazby vy\u0161plhaly na 33 dolar\u016f za barel, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se sou\u010dasn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na vylod\u011bn\u00ed z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu do \u010c\u00edny zv\u00fd\u0161ily na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 140 dolar\u016f za barel. U z\u00e1silek do Japonska a Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje byly zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na vylod\u011bn\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, a to p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 145 dolar\u016f za barel.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Alternativn\u00ed vstupn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstavy nab\u00edzely pouze nekonzistentn\u00ed \u00falevu. Sazby za p\u0159epravu ropy ze sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9ho termin\u00e1lu Yanbu do \u010c\u00edny se po po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edm n\u00e1r\u016fstu souvisej\u00edc\u00edm s v\u00e1lkou pohybovaly mezi 6 a 7 dolary za barel. Omezen\u00ed H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f na sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00fd n\u00e1klad, kter\u00e1 uvalila skupina Bab al-Mandab, je v\u0161ak do poloviny \u0159\u00edjna vytla\u010dila na 28 dolar\u016f za barel, co\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161ilo n\u00e1klady na vykl\u00e1dku na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 140 dolar\u016f za barel. Od zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f na energetickou infrastrukturu pod\u00e9l pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e klesla odbaven\u00ed n\u00e1kladu v Yanbu na 1,6 a\u017e 1,8 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b (polovina pr\u016fm\u011bru od b\u0159ezna do \u010dervence), p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v\u011bt\u0161inu exportu odbavuje Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 15 % z 1 000 sv\u011btov\u00fdch n\u00e1kladn\u00edch lod\u00ed p\u0159epravuj\u00edc\u00edch velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9 teploty (VLCC) se nach\u00e1z\u00ed v Om\u00e1nsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a \u010dek\u00e1 na p\u0159ekl\u00e1dku ropy p\u0159epravovan\u00e9 men\u0161\u00edmi tankery p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. Jak\u00e9koli zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed v pr\u016flivu proto p\u0159\u00edmo ovliv\u0148uje dostupnost VLCC jinde. Podobn\u011b vysok\u00e9 p\u0159epravn\u00ed sazby plat\u00ed pro p\u0159epravu ropy VLCC z Braz\u00edlie do \u010c\u00edny nebo ze z\u00e1padn\u00ed Afriky do Indie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uhlovod\u00edkov\u00e9 produkty jsou je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce ovlivn\u011bny situac\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Nafty a petroleje je nedostatek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch \u0161kod\u00e1ch na rafin\u00e9ri\u00edch p\u0159estaly zem\u011b Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu tyto produkty vyv\u00e1\u017eet. Rusko a \u010c\u00edna zastavily sv\u016fj v\u00fdvoz, aby uspokojily dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vku. Rafinerie v USA a Evrop\u011b pracuj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na pln\u00e9 kapacit\u011b. Celkov\u00fd nedostatek je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 5 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace se zemn\u00edm plynem a hnojivy <\/span>je je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/a> :<\/span><\/p>\n

Katar, druh\u00fd nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd v\u00fdvozce zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG), p\u0159epravil v prvn\u00edch \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u00e1lky 18 n\u00e1klad\u016f LNG, oproti 509 v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm roce. \u0160kody v Ras Laffan vy\u0159adily z provozu zhruba 17 procent jeho kapacity \u2013 tato ztr\u00e1ta by p\u0159etrv\u00e1vala i po p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Oblast Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu obvykle dod\u00e1v\u00e1 asi t\u0159etinu sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s mo\u010dovinou. Zem\u011bd\u011bl\u0161t\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 varuj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok by mohla b\u00fdt n\u00e1kupn\u00ed sez\u00f3na hnojiv ohro\u017een\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e leto\u0161n\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Dlouhodob\u00e1 obdob\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cen energi\u00ed zhor\u0161\u00ed inflaci v z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00edch. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, brzd\u011bn\u00e9 svou ideologi\u00ed, zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. (A to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nijak nezm\u00edrn\u00ed cenov\u00e9 dopady nab\u00eddkov\u00e9ho \u0161oku.) Ji\u017e tak siln\u011b zadlu\u017een\u00e9 podniky, spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 a vl\u00e1dy budou muset omezit v\u00fddaje. Nastane glob\u00e1ln\u00ed recese.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m z t\u011bchto trh\u016f nedojde k \u00falev\u011b, dokud konflikt na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b z\u016fstane nevy\u0159e\u0161en:<\/span><\/p>\n

K normalizaci dojde pouze tehdy, bude-li existovat trval\u00e1 diplomatick\u00e1 dohoda, kter\u00e1 umo\u017en\u00ed n\u00e1vrat d\u016fv\u011bry. Na to ned\u00e1vno upozornil gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed ropn\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Nov\u00e9 iniciativy Trumpovy administrativy, jako je zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed sankc\u00ed proti rusk\u00e9 naft\u011b nebo st\u00ednov\u00e1 flotila, nab\u00edzej\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mal\u00fd skute\u010dn\u00fd objem nebo kapacitu na to, aby v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovlivnily dynamiku.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Je proto st\u00e1le jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee vyhl\u00eddky USA v t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce nelze m\u011b\u0159it po\u010dtem denn\u00edch pr\u016fjezd\u016f tanker\u016f. Zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 lodn\u00ed doprava pr\u016flivem by jist\u011b mohla b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1na za taktick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 sni\u017euje bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed vliv \u00cdr\u00e1nu a dokonce zm\u00edr\u0148uje mo\u017enost prudk\u00e9ho n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen ropy oproti jejich sou\u010dasn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farovni. Bylo by v\u0161ak chybnou interpretac\u00ed situace vn\u00edmat to jako strategick\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 \u010din\u00ed seri\u00f3zn\u00ed diplomacii zbyte\u010dnou nebo umo\u017e\u0148uje USA diktovat podm\u00ednky.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by USA byly schopny nebo ochotny usilovat o m\u00edr v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Pova\u017euji za pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee Trumpova administrativa ve spolupr\u00e1ci s Izraelem podnikne dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1siln\u00fd pokus srazit \u00cdr\u00e1n (a H\u00fat\u00edye v Jemenu?) na kolena.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160ance na dosa\u017een\u00ed tohoto c\u00edle jsou miziv\u011b mal\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch Trumpova administrativa hlasit\u011b prohla\u0161ovala, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n ztratil kontrolu nad Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119113,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1907,11902],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119112"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119112\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}