{"id":119077,"date":"2026-10-22T00:32:24","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T22:32:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=119077"},"modified":"2026-10-21T16:58:45","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T14:58:45","slug":"dalsi-kolo-proti-iranu-rozbije-to-co-zbylo-z-perskeho-zalivu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/22\/dalsi-kolo-proti-iranu-rozbije-to-co-zbylo-z-perskeho-zalivu\/","title":{"rendered":"Dal\u0161\u00ed kolo proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu rozbije to, co zbylo z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Washington a Izrael op\u011bt hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201edokon\u010den\u00ed pr\u00e1ce\u201c v \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Ne\u017e tak u\u010din\u00ed, m\u011bl by se n\u011bkdo po\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b pod\u00edvat na \u00fa\u010det za ji\u017e odvedenou pr\u00e1ci. M\u016fj p\u0159\u00edtel Karl Miller, kter\u00fd tento region spr\u00e1vn\u011b ozna\u010dil \u010dast\u011bji ne\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed zaplacen\u00fdch za to, mi v pond\u011bl\u00ed poslal sv\u00e9 nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed. Jeho z\u00e1v\u011br je jednozna\u010dn\u00fd: p\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9m kurzu se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed kolo eskalace a zaplat\u00ed za ni zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 nikdy nedostaly hlas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysych\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1livu<\/span><\/h2>\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme s lidmi, kte\u0159\u00ed by m\u011bli b\u00fdt americk\u00fdmi partnery. \u0158\u00edjnov\u00fd v\u00fdhled MMF zn\u00ed jako zpr\u00e1va o ob\u011btech. Kuvajtsk\u00e1 ekonomika se letos podle p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed zmen\u0161\u00ed o 16,7 procenta. Katarsk\u00e1 o 15,6 procenta a Bahrajn o 11,3 procenta. Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 byly dlouho pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za bezpe\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav v regionu, by se nyn\u00ed m\u011bly zmen\u0161it o 3,9 procenta, co\u017e je o sedm procentn\u00edch bod\u016f m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e dubnov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za MMF. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie by se m\u011bla zmen\u0161it o 3,3 procenta. Jedinou ekonomikou Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, kter\u00e1 st\u00e1le roste, je Om\u00e1n, a to proto, \u017ee jeho p\u0159\u00edstavy le\u017e\u00ed mimo Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejde o pap\u00edrov\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty. Katar v b\u0159eznu ztratil v Ras Laffan dva vlaky s LNG, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje zhruba 17 procent jeho exportn\u00ed kapacity. Spole\u010dnost QatarEnergy uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee opravy potrvaj\u00ed t\u0159i a\u017e p\u011bt let a budou ji st\u00e1t zhruba 20 miliard dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b. \u00danikov\u00e1 cesta Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie kolem Hormuzu, plynovod V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad do Yanbu, je ochromena. Moje zdroje mi sd\u011bluj\u00ed, \u017ee \u010dty\u0159i z jej\u00edch 11 \u010derpac\u00edch stanic jsou v\u00e1\u017en\u011b po\u0161kozeny a mimo provoz. Rij\u00e1d nyn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 deficit ve v\u00fd\u0161i 4,9 procenta HDP, p\u016fj\u010duje si na jeho pokryt\u00ed a zmrazil nepodstatn\u00e9 v\u00fddaje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Miller vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d je to hor\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e nazna\u010duje hlavn\u00ed cena ropy. Po\u0161kozen\u00fd z\u00e1vod neprodukuje nic k prodeji, ale mzdy, spl\u00e1tky dluh\u016f a \u00fa\u010dty za opravy st\u00e1le p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed. Z\u00e1vod, kter\u00fd st\u00e1le stoj\u00ed, ale nem\u016f\u017ee do n\u011bj nakl\u00e1dat d\u00edly ani vykl\u00e1dat n\u00e1klad, je v t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 stejn\u00e9 situaci. Barel ropy za 108 dolar\u016f nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou hodnotu, pokud jej nelze p\u0159epravit. A pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu investovaly doma i v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, rychle miz\u00ed. Pokud vl\u00e1da p\u0159ijme 100 a mus\u00ed utratit 70, zbude j\u00ed 30. Sn\u00ed\u017e\u00edte-li p\u0159\u00edjmy na 80, tento pol\u0161t\u00e1\u0159 klesne na 10. Dvacetiprocentn\u00ed pokles p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f sma\u017ee dv\u011b t\u0159etiny pen\u011bz na v\u0161echno ostatn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu si koupily americkou ochranu, aby ochr\u00e1nily pr\u00e1v\u011b toto bohatstv\u00ed. M\u00edsto toho, jak to vyj\u00e1d\u0159il Miller, nakonec zaplatily n\u00e1klady na americkou strategii. To je dohoda, kterou nebudou uzav\u00edrat v\u011b\u010dn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00e9 kolo znamen\u00e1 hlub\u0161\u00ed nedostatek<\/span><\/h2>\n

Nyn\u00ed si zva\u017ete, co by dal\u0161\u00ed kolo americk\u00fdch a izraelsk\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f ud\u011blalo se sv\u011btem, kter\u00fd ji\u017e tak trp\u00ed nedostatkem energie. Toky ropy p\u0159es Hormuz se pohybuj\u00ed kolem 11,6 a\u017e 11,9 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, oproti p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00farovni asi 17 milion\u016f. Export paliv z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu je m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e polovina toho, co byl p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 agentura uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee z\u00e1soby nafty z\u016fstanou napjat\u00e9 a\u017e do roku 2027 a \u017ee ji\u017e spot\u0159ebovan\u00e9 z\u00e1soby nafty nebudou obnoveny p\u0159ed druhou polovinou t\u00e9ho\u017e roku. Brent se pohybuje kolem 108 dolar\u016f, co\u017e je o v\u00edce ne\u017e 75 procent v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u0159ed rokem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00e1 dosavadn\u00ed eskalace prob\u00edhala ve stejn\u00e9m sch\u00e9matu. \u00cdr\u00e1n reaguje upevn\u011bn\u00edm sv\u00e9ho vlivu v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu. Jeho spojenci v Jemenu roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00ed seznam sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. Za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, kter\u00e1 byla opravena, jsou znovu zasa\u017eena d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e se jim vr\u00e1t\u00ed n\u00e1klady na jejich opravu. To je nejkrut\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st Millerovy anal\u00fdzy: opakovan\u00e9 \u00fatoky \u010din\u00ed opravy zbyte\u010dn\u00fdmi, proto\u017ee nikdo nebude utr\u00e1cet miliardy za obnovu elektr\u00e1rny, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc znovu zni\u010dena. Nov\u00e1 kampa\u0148 pr\u016fliv znovu neotev\u0159e. Uzav\u0159e ho d\u00e1le, odstav\u00ed z provozu v\u00edce kapacit v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a vr\u00e1t\u00ed naftu zp\u011bt k z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9mu rekordu v\u00edce ne\u017e 200 dolar\u016f za barel, pr\u00e1v\u011b kdy\u017e Evropa sm\u011b\u0159uje do zimy. Francie a It\u00e1lie se u\u017e bou\u0159\u00ed kv\u016fli \u017eivotn\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm. P\u0159edstavte si je v \u00fanoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Temn\u00e1 budoucnost Izraele<\/span><\/h2>\n

Miller\u016fv nejtvrd\u0161\u00ed soud je vyhrazen Izraeli a zaslou\u017e\u00ed si pln\u00e9 sly\u0161en\u00ed. V\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Izrael se nikdy nevzpamatuje z toho, co ud\u011blal v Gaze, co\u017e vy\u0161et\u0159ovac\u00ed komise OSN loni dosp\u011bla k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee se jednalo o genocidu. Jeho slovy, st\u00e1t je \u201enaru\u0161en ekonomicky. Je to naru\u0161eno politicky. Je to naru\u0161eno mor\u00e1ln\u011b.\u201c To je siln\u00e1 mluva, ale argument, kter\u00fd se za n\u00ed skr\u00fdv\u00e1, nen\u00ed hysterie. Jde o to, jak se st\u00e1t vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed zn\u00ed takto. Izraelsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed vsadilo v\u0161e na vojenskou dominanci: ude\u0159it ka\u017ed\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00edtele dostate\u010dn\u011b tvrd\u011b, aby se nikdo neodv\u00e1\u017eil vzdorovat. S\u00edla m\u016f\u017ee vyhr\u00e1t bitvy, ale nem\u016f\u017ee nikoho donutit akceptovat v\u00fdsledek. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 kampa\u0148 proto vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pot\u0159ebu t\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed. Odp\u016frci se znovu formuj\u00ed, z\u00e1\u0161\u0165 roste a okruh zem\u00ed ochotn\u00fdch st\u00e1t po boku Izraele se zmen\u0161uje. Vl\u00e1da tedy zdvojn\u00e1sobuje \u00fasil\u00ed a vyv\u00edj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed s\u00edlu, proto\u017ee alternativa, p\u0159ijet\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00fdch omezen\u00ed okupace a zach\u00e1zen\u00ed s Palestinci, ohro\u017euje politick\u00fd projekt, kter\u00fd h\u00e1j\u00ed. V\u00e1lka se st\u00e1v\u00e1 zp\u016fsobem, jak odd\u00e1lit z\u00fa\u010dtov\u00e1n\u00ed, nikoli se mu vyhnout.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cena se ji\u017e projevuje. MMF uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e1 ekonomika je asi o 9 procent men\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e by byla bez v\u00e1lky. Rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit sm\u011b\u0159uje k 6,2 procent\u016fm HDP a ve\u0159ejn\u00fd dluh je na cest\u011b k dosa\u017een\u00ed zhruba 74 procent HDP do roku 2031. Z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edci jsou znovu a znovu propou\u0161t\u011bni. Izraelci se ji\u017e perou o to, kdo ponese b\u0159emeno, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ultraortodoxn\u00ed mu\u017ei st\u00e1le mnohem m\u00e9n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pracuj\u00ed nebo slou\u017e\u00ed ne\u017e kdokoli jin\u00fd. Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investo\u0159i a partne\u0159i jsou s ka\u017edou kampan\u00ed opatrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Millerovo varov\u00e1n\u00ed zn\u00ed, \u017ee izraelsk\u00fd projekt by se mohl st\u00e1t neudr\u017eiteln\u00fdm dlouho p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e jeho vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla vypr\u0161\u00ed. Zem\u011b si m\u016f\u017ee ponechat sv\u00e9 tanky a trysk\u00e1\u010de a p\u0159esto ztratit ekonomiku, spojenectv\u00ed a legitimitu, kterou pot\u0159ebuje k p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed. To je temn\u00e1 a nejist\u00e1 budoucnost, kterou vid\u00ed, a mn\u011b je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 s n\u00ed polemizovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko nic ned\u011bl\u00e1. Lavrov tvrd\u00ed opak<\/span><\/h2>\n

Co\u017e m\u011b p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u00ed k nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed prezidenta. 13. \u0159\u00edjna Donald Trump prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko nebo \u010c\u00edna pom\u00e1haj\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu. V ned\u011bli za\u0161el na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l a trval na tom, \u017ee \u201eRusko d\u011bl\u00e1 jen velmi m\u00e1lo pro pomoc \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republice ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s t\u00edm, co by mohlo d\u011blat\u201c, pokud v\u016fbec n\u011bco d\u011bl\u00e1, a \u017ee si p\u0159eje, aby to tak z\u016fstalo, \u201epokud se do toho nepletou n\u011bjac\u00ed hloup\u00ed lid\u00e9\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

O necel\u00fd den pozd\u011bji st\u00e1l rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov v Teher\u00e1nu vedle \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Abb\u00e1se Arag\u010d\u010d\u00edho a prohl\u00e1sil opak. \u201eJsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 v\u011bc, stejn\u011b jako rusk\u00e1, je spravedliv\u00e1,\u201c prohl\u00e1sil Lavrov. \u0158ekl, \u017ee Rusko \u201enem\u00e1 v \u00famyslu upustit od pln\u011bn\u00ed dohod s \u00cdr\u00e1nem v ekonomick\u00e9 a investi\u010dn\u00ed sf\u00e9\u0159e\u201c a znovu zav\u00e1zal Moskvu k 20let\u00e9mu strategick\u00e9mu partnerstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 form\u00e1ln\u011b vstoupilo v platnost 2. \u0159\u00edjna. Ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee se ru\u0161t\u00ed specialist\u00e9 vr\u00e1t\u00ed do jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny v B\u00fa\u0161ehru. Vyzval k n\u00e1vratu Hormuzsk\u00e9 oblasti k p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m a spojil to s ochranou \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159ed obnoven\u00fdmi \u00fatoky. P\u0159ed p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00edm v Teher\u00e1nu ozna\u010dil Trump\u016fv p\u0159\u00edstup za \u201echybn\u00fd\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom byli k prezidentovi spravedliv\u00ed, Rusko za \u00cdr\u00e1n nev\u00e1l\u010dilo a ani to od n\u011bj nevy\u017eaduje ani partnersk\u00e1 smlouva. Neexistuje zde \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 klauzule o vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obran\u011b. Ale to je sp\u00ed\u0161e st\u00ed\u017enost pr\u00e1vn\u00edka. Rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed nel\u00e9t\u00e1 do hlavn\u00edho m\u011bsta, kter\u00e9mu hroz\u00ed \u00fatok, aby jen tak n\u00e1hodou ozn\u00e1mil jeho p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinu. P\u0159ipo\u010dt\u011bte k tomu \u00fadajn\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 satelitn\u00ed data, kter\u00e1 dosahuj\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f, a neust\u00e1l\u00e9 zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159esnosti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch a h\u00fat\u00edjsk\u00fdch raket a z\u00edsk\u00e1te obraz partnera, kter\u00fd je opatrn\u00fd, pop\u00edrateln\u00fd a velmi anga\u017eovan\u00fd. Moskva nemus\u00ed vyst\u0159elit. Sta\u010d\u00ed, kdy\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1n udr\u017e\u00ed na nohou, zat\u00edmco Amerika vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u00e9 spojence v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a evropskou ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00da\u010det je splatn\u00fd<\/span><\/h2>\n

Pokud Washington a Izrael zah\u00e1j\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed kolo reforem, vsad\u00ed se, \u017ee tentokr\u00e1t silou dojde k urovn\u00e1n\u00ed. T\u0159i roky d\u016fkaz\u016f sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o tom, \u017ee se tak nestane. Co to ale p\u0159inese, budou hlub\u0161\u00ed recese v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, del\u0161\u00ed nedostatek energie, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hn\u011bv v evropsk\u00fdch ulic\u00edch a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady pro Izrael, kter\u00e9mu u\u017e tak doch\u00e1z\u00ed prostor. Millerova p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f je, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed kolo stejn\u011b p\u0159ijde. Douf\u00e1m, \u017ee se tentokr\u00e1t m\u00fdl\u00ed. Pochybuji o tom.<\/span><\/p>\n

od <\/span>Larryho C. Johnsona<\/span><\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Washington a Izrael op\u011bt hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201edokon\u010den\u00ed pr\u00e1ce\u201c v \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Ne\u017e tak u\u010din\u00ed, m\u011bl by…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":119078,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,6382,38,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119077"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=119077"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/119077\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/119078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=119077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=119077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=119077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}