{"id":118589,"date":"2026-10-16T00:44:36","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T22:44:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=118589"},"modified":"2026-10-15T19:07:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T17:07:24","slug":"etiopie-sud-s-prachem-u-rudeho-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/16\/etiopie-sud-s-prachem-u-rudeho-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Etiopie: Sud s prachem u Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Nov\u00fd konflikt hroz\u00ed paralyzov\u00e1n\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu a p\u0159ekreslen\u00edm mapy regionu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna se Africk\u00fd roh op\u011bt ocitl v centru glob\u00e1ln\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 bou\u0159e. Po \u010dty\u0159ech letech k\u0159ehk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed se Etiopie znovu pono\u0159ila do rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e1 se rychle internacionalizovala a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila se daleko za hranice zem\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed diplomatick\u00fdch vztah\u016f<\/span><\/a> s Eritreou a ofenz\u00edva feder\u00e1ln\u00edch sil sm\u011brem na sever vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed v\u00fdbu\u0161nou situaci: sv\u011bt je na pokraji konfliktu, kter\u00fd by mohl paralyzovat hlavn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed cesty mezi Asi\u00ed a Evropou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace dos\u00e1hla kritick\u00e9ho bodu za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna. Etiopsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da znovu dobyla Mekele, hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto povstaleck\u00e9 oblasti Tigraj, a pokra\u010duje v postupu na sever, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se nyn\u00ed bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed k eritrejsk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm. Tigraj doned\u00e1vna slou\u017eil jako n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00e1 z\u00f3na, kter\u00e1 br\u00e1nila \u010deln\u00edm st\u0159et\u016fm arm\u00e1d obou zem\u00ed. Tato n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00e1 z\u00f3na je nyn\u00ed zni\u010dena.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Addis Abeba, povzbuzena sv\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi \u00fasp\u011bchy, st\u00e1le otev\u0159en\u011bji projevuje sv\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 ambice. Premi\u00e9r Abiy Ahmed jednozna\u010dn\u011b prohla\u0161uje, \u017ee jeho zem\u011b je v \u201egeografick\u00e9m v\u011bzen\u00ed\u201c, jeliko\u017e po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti Eritreje v roce 1993 ztratila p\u0159\u00edstup k Rud\u00e9mu mo\u0159i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Etiop\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci se netaj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee eritrejsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav Assab pova\u017euj\u00ed za legitimn\u00ed c\u00edl pro zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f. V Asma\u0159e jsou tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 hrozba uprost\u0159ed obav, \u017ee by se soused jednoho dne mohl pokusit vy\u0159e\u0161it ot\u00e1zku p\u0159\u00edstupu k mo\u0159i silou, bez diplomatick\u00e9ho kompromisu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozsah hrozby<\/span><\/a> pro \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed vl\u00e1du se stal z\u0159ejm\u00fdm 20. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, kdy sedm r\u016fznorod\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch skupin ozn\u00e1milo vytvo\u0159en\u00ed Koalice etiopsk\u00fdch lidov\u00fdch sil pro p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed. Rebelov\u00e9, v\u010detn\u011b N\u00e1rodn\u00edho hnut\u00ed Fano (Amhara), Tigrajsk\u00e9 lidov\u00e9 osvobozeneck\u00e9 fronty (TPLF), Oromsk\u00e9 osvobozeneck\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy a n\u011bkolika dal\u0161\u00edch etnick\u00fdch skupin, prohl\u00e1sili za sv\u016fj hlavn\u00ed c\u00edl svr\u017een\u00ed re\u017eimu Abiy Ahmeda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kr\u00e1tce po tomto ozn\u00e1men\u00ed TPLF obsadila kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 leti\u0161t\u011b ve sv\u00e9m regionu a zah\u00e1jila ofenz\u00edvu v sousedn\u00edch regionech Amhara a Afar. Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edly jsou nuceny sv\u00e1d\u011bt vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed bitvy na n\u011bkolika front\u00e1ch a <\/span>k \u00fatok\u016fm na<\/span><\/a> pozice Fano a Oromo Liberation Army pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed drony.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Region\u00e1ln\u00ed aliance se tak\u00e9 posunuly. Zat\u00edmco Eritrea podporovala Addis Abebu p\u0159i rozdrcen\u00ed TPLF b\u011bhem p\u0159edchoz\u00ed v\u00e1lky v letech 2020-2022, dnes je to podle etiopsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy Asmara, kdo dod\u00e1v\u00e1 zbran\u011b Tigrajc\u016fm. S\u00e1m Abiy Ahmed, jeho\u017e p\u016fvod (otec Oromo, matka Amharka) m\u011bl symbolizovat n\u00e1rodn\u00ed jednotu, zvolil cestu demont\u00e1\u017ee etnick\u00e9ho federalismu. Rozpu\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm koalice etnick\u00fdch stran v roce 2019 a vytvo\u0159en\u00edm Sjednocen\u00e9 strany prosperity zbavil TPLF jej\u00edho pr\u00e1vn\u00edho statusu a odcizil v\u0161echny elity, kter\u00e9 t\u011b\u017eily ze star\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vnit\u0159n\u00ed rozpory Etiopie se okam\u017eit\u011b propletly s extr\u00e9mn\u011b slo\u017eitou s\u00edt\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch a glob\u00e1ln\u00edch rozpor\u016f. Tato zem\u011b s t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 140 miliony obyvatel, kter\u00e1 disponuje jednou z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch arm\u00e1d v Africe, se ocit\u00e1 obklopena nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdmi nebo nestabiln\u00edmi sousedy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kolem Addis Abeby se formuj\u00ed dva protich\u016fdn\u00e9 t\u00e1bory. Vl\u00e1du Abiy Ahmeda otev\u0159en\u011b podporuje Izrael, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 investovaly miliardy dolar\u016f do etiopsk\u00e9 ekonomiky, a tak\u00e9 s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e9 Sily rychl\u00e9 podpory (RSF).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Proti etiopsk\u00e9 \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed vl\u00e1d\u011b stoj\u00ed Eritrea, Egypt, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie a s\u00fad\u00e1nsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da pod veden\u00edm gener\u00e1la Burhana. K\u00e1hira je tradi\u010dn\u011b ve sporu s Addis Abebou ohledn\u011b Velk\u00e9 etiopsk\u00e9 renesan\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159ehrady, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 b\u00fdt otev\u0159ena v roce 2025 a o kter\u00e9 Egyp\u0165an\u00e9 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee ohro\u017euje tok Nilu. Sousedn\u00ed S\u00fad\u00e1n, zapleten\u00fd do vlastn\u00ed krvav\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, p\u0159i\u017eivuje chaos, stejn\u011b jako nestabilita v Jemenu, kde H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 nad\u00e1le \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na lodn\u00ed dopravu v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nem\u00e9n\u011b slo\u017eit\u00e9 jsou i pozice hlavn\u00edch geopolitick\u00fdch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f, \u010c\u00edny, Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a Ruska. Peking udr\u017euje vztahy s etiopsk\u00fdm veden\u00edm a z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u00fazk\u00e9 vazby s Eritreou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington se tak\u00e9 v\u00edce zam\u011b\u0159uje na Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e a region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost. Trumpova administrativa, kter\u00e1 se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201eredefinic\u00ed\u201c sv\u00e9 africk\u00e9 strategie, klade d\u016fraz na n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fd faktor. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se stav\u00ed do role obr\u00e1nce k\u0159es\u0165ansk\u00fdch komunit na africk\u00e9m kontinentu, jedin\u00e9m regionu na sv\u011bt\u011b, kde k\u0159es\u0165anstv\u00ed za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 demografick\u00fd r\u016fst, a sna\u017e\u00ed se pos\u00edlit sv\u016fj vliv.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Washingtonsk\u00e1 iniciativa z 18. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed je v\u00fdmluvn\u00e1: pouh\u00e9 dva dny p\u0159ed vytvo\u0159en\u00edm povstaleck\u00e9 aliance Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 <\/span>zru\u0161ili sankce<\/span><\/a> proti Eritreji, pot\u00e9 co p\u0159edt\u00edm (prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm K\u00e1hiry) nav\u00e1zali vztahy s jej\u00edm prezidentem Isaiasem Afwerkim \u2013 jin\u00fdmi slovy s odp\u016frcem etiopsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Abiye Ahmeda \u2013 s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee americk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy v tomto regionu maj\u00ed v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b p\u0159ednost p\u0159ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed politikou Etiopie.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti vynik\u00e1 rusk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup. Moskva tradi\u010dn\u011b prosazuje my\u0161lenky mezin\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9ho a mezin\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9ho dialogu v Africe.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Trag\u00e9dii Etiopie umoc\u0148uje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee zem\u011b disponuje zna\u010dn\u00fdm potenci\u00e1lem. Navzdory v\u00e1lce se pro rok 2026 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 r\u016fst HDP o 9,3 %, co\u017e jsou \u010d\u00edsla, kter\u00e1 by v\u011bt\u0161ina rozvojov\u00fdch ekonomik z\u00e1vid\u011bla. Zem\u011b t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z program\u016f MMF, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch infrastrukturn\u00edch projekt\u016f a arabsk\u00fdch investic. Ethiopian Airlines z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed leteck\u00fdm gigantem kontinentu a Addis Abeba neofici\u00e1ln\u00edm hlavn\u00edm m\u011bstem Africk\u00e9 unie.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto ekonomick\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy by v\u0161ak mohly b\u00fdt v okam\u017eiku smaz\u00e1ny. P\u0159edchoz\u00ed v\u00e1lka v Tigray si vy\u017e\u00e1dala \u017eivoty t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 600 000 lid\u00ed a stala se jedn\u00edm z nejkrvav\u011bj\u0161\u00edch konflikt\u016f v soudob\u00e9 africk\u00e9 historii. Dnes, kdy se separatismus zhor\u0161uje ambic\u00ed na p\u0159ekreslen\u00ed hranic a zahrani\u010dn\u00edm vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm, se odborn\u00edci shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee nov\u00e1 vlna n\u00e1sil\u00ed hroz\u00ed sv\u00fdm rozsahem p\u0159ekon\u00e1n\u00edm katastrofy z let 2020\u20132022.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1da a povstaleck\u00e1 koalice nesednou k jednac\u00edmu stolu a pokud budou extern\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i nad\u00e1le zaplavovat region zbran\u011bmi, Etiopii hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se nestane region\u00e1ln\u00edm l\u00eddrem, ale \u010dernou d\u00edrou, kter\u00e1 pohlt\u00ed cel\u00fd Africk\u00fd roh a bude schopna naru\u0161it glob\u00e1ln\u00ed logistiku v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cel\u00edme potenci\u00e1ln\u00edmu ohnisku vzplanut\u00ed v \u201eafrick\u00e9m sudu s prachem\u201c, kter\u00fd se nach\u00e1z\u00ed pobl\u00ed\u017e jedn\u00e9 ze strategicky nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch tras sv\u011bta. A pokud k t\u00e9to explozi dojde, jej\u00ed n\u00e1sledky budou citeln\u00e9 daleko za hranicemi regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Serge Savigny<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nov\u00fd konflikt hroz\u00ed paralyzov\u00e1n\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu a p\u0159ekreslen\u00edm mapy regionu. Za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u0159\u00edjna se Africk\u00fd roh…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":118590,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1271,3635,220,6329],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118589"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118589"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118589\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}