{"id":118583,"date":"2026-10-16T00:41:51","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T22:41:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=118583"},"modified":"2026-10-15T19:01:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T17:01:19","slug":"sthomas-paukner-ebevrazda-evropy-v-primem-prenosu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/16\/sthomas-paukner-ebevrazda-evropy-v-primem-prenosu\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas Paukner: Sebevra\u017eda Evropy v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m p\u0159enosu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Existuje ve\u0159ejn\u011b p\u0159ijat\u00e1 teze – zbav\u00edme se paliv z Ruska, Putin\u016fv re\u017eim padne.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Je to \u00fapln\u00e1 blbost, \u010d\u00edsla nel\u017eou. V roce 2025, kdy byla relativn\u011b levn\u00e1 ropa a Putinovy rafinerie dost\u00e1valy jednu r\u00e1nu za druhou, exportovalo Rusko ropu a zemn\u00ed plyn za 199 miliard dolar\u016f (!!!).<\/p>\n

Zdroj – https:\/\/sanctions.kse.ua\/…\/2025_Year_End_Assessment.pdf…<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty odebraly ropu a plyn za 700 milion\u016f dolar\u016f, tedy nakoupily m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 0,5 % rusk\u00e9 produkce a Evropsk\u00e1 unie odebrala ropu za 4 miliardy USD, plyn za 15 miliard USD a ropn\u00e9 produkty za necel\u00fdch 200 milion\u016f dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Zdroj plyn – https:\/\/ieefa.org\/eu-gas-flows-tracker<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Zdroj plyn 2 – https:\/\/www.welt.de\/…\/milliarden-fuer-moskau-eu-kauft…<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Zdroj ropa – https:\/\/itek.ru\/…\/skolko-zarabotala-rossiya-na…\/<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Dohromady Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 a Evropan\u00e9 odebrali 10 % ve\u0161ker\u00fdch paliv vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdch v pen\u011bz\u00edch, kter\u00e9 Rusov\u00e9 za rok 2025 prodali sv\u011btu.<\/p>\n

I nejtvrd\u0161\u00ed sankce nepomohou. Nepom\u016f\u017ee ani okam\u017eit\u00e9 zastaven\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00fdch odb\u011br\u016f LNG \u010di potrubn\u00edho plynu z Ruska. V\u00fdpadek 10 % tr\u017eeb na palivech lze relativn\u011b rychle dohnat, zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 v prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed energetick\u00e9 krizi, kdy p\u016fvod ropy ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea, Japonsko, ale ani dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b nejv\u00edce posti\u017een\u00e9ho regionu ASEAN.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edsla za rok 2026 budou daleko hor\u0161\u00ed. Ropa je dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed o 40 % a plyn jakbysmet, rusk\u00e1 kasa se tedy p\u0159\u00edjmy z prodeje paliv pln\u00ed o to v\u00edce.<\/p>\n

Podle anal\u00fdz CREA se letos Putinovy p\u0159\u00edjmy zvednou minim\u00e1ln\u011b o 10, mo\u017en\u00e1 o 12 % proti lo\u0148sk\u00e9mu roku i navzdory ukrajinsk\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm.<\/p>\n

2026, CREA – https:\/\/energyandcleanair.org\/august-2026-monthly…\/<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edm to je, \u017ee sankce selhaly?<\/p>\n

Odpov\u011b\u010f nab\u00edz\u00ed \u010c\u00edna, Indie a zem\u011b Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Kdyby Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie v \u010dele kartelu OPEC v roce 2022 nepodr\u017eela Vladimira Putina a nesn\u00ed\u017eila objemy ropy dod\u00e1van\u00e9 na sv\u011btov\u00e9 trhy, Putin by se mohl j\u00edt lidov\u011b \u0159e\u010deno klouzat a rusk\u00fd rozpo\u010det by v letech 2023 a\u017e 2024 vykrv\u00e1cel.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/…\/opec-production-cuts\/index.html<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Tento z\u00e1sah OPEC de facto v\u00e1lku rozhodl ji\u017e v roce 2022.<\/p>\n

Arabov\u00e9 sv\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1tele podr\u017eeli, nyn\u00ed maj\u00ed na krku \u00cdr\u00e1n i Jemen a jejich budoucnost coby obchodn\u00edch uzl\u016f je v tahu. Ta skon\u010dila prvn\u00edmi z\u00e1sahy obchodn\u00edch center v Dubaji po vypuknut\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 krize.<\/p>\n

Princip sankc\u00ed spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee mus\u00edte m\u00edt opravdu siln\u00e9 p\u00e1ky a b\u00fdt schopn\u00ed protivn\u00edka polo\u017eit na z\u00e1da. Evropa naprosto selhala, odklon od rusk\u00e9 ropy a zemn\u00edho plynu toti\u017e prov\u00e1d\u011bla tak dlouho, a\u017e se trhy p\u0159eskupily a dnes se jako bumerang tato neakceschopost vrac\u00ed do Evropsk\u00e9 \u00fanie a decimuje jej\u00ed pr\u016fmysl.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eitou schopnost\u00ed je nej\u00edt hlavou proti zdi. Putin by padl p\u0159i dostatku ropy na trz\u00edch, Arabov\u00e9 ale rozhodli jinak. V tu chv\u00edli m\u011bla Evropa zm\u011bnit sank\u010dn\u00ed politiku a naopak od Ruska suroviny odeb\u00edrat, vyu\u017e\u00edt levn\u00e9 energie pro podporu vlastn\u00edho pr\u016fmyslu a levn\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm plynem uzbrojit samotn\u00e9 Rusko.<\/p>\n

To by ale evropsk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost nesm\u011bla b\u00fdt ideologicky zaslepen\u00e1 a pochopit, \u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 od agresora odeb\u00edrat suroviny a ty pou\u017e\u00edt k vlastn\u00edm \u00fa\u010del\u016fm – d\u011blal to tak Churchill i Stalin, na co\u017e se zapom\u00edn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 unie se stala neakceschopnou. Sankce uvalovala p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pomalu a p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 kostrbat\u011b, aby nepochopila, \u017ee bez Arab\u016f nem\u00e1 ani dostate\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdtlak. Bidenova administrativa pak selhala rovn\u011b\u017e, kdy\u017e m\u00edsto diplomacie hr\u00e1la na „hodnotovou“ notu. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 akor\u00e1t zapomn\u011bli, \u017ee se Indov\u00e9 ani Arabov\u00e9 hodnotami nikdy p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nezab\u00fdvali, zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 ne t\u011bmi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi.<\/p>\n

Pak p\u0159i\u0161el Donald Trump. Evropsk\u00e1 unie z\u016fstala s „hodnotami“ osamocen\u00e1 a st\u00e1le k\u0159i\u010dela jako bl\u00e1zen ve vypolstrovan\u00e9 m\u00edstnosti, \u017ee mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed pr\u00e1vo existuje a mor\u00e1lka je st\u0159edobodem diplomacie. Nen\u00ed, nikdy nebyla.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/…\/indian-pm-modi-suggests…\/<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

A dnes? Putin ji\u017e Evropu nepot\u0159ebuje, rusk\u00fd rozpo\u010det na tom letos bude s prodeji paliv l\u00e9pe ne\u017e v roce minul\u00e9m a i kdyby se Evropan\u00e9 s Ameri\u010dany rozhodli, \u017ee lusknut\u00edm prstu dod\u00e1vky plynu a ropy zastav\u00ed, nestane se v Rusku nic. V Evrop\u011b se naopak vzedmou francouz\u0161t\u00ed a ital\u0161t\u00ed farm\u00e1\u0159i v doprovodu n\u011bmeck\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f v t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu, kter\u00fdm zkrachuj\u00ed fabriky.<\/p>\n

Rusko na tom nen\u00ed o mnoho l\u00e9pe. Sv\u00e9 trhy prodalo \u010c\u00edn\u011b, sv\u00e1 paliva jakbysmet a z oligarcho-kapitalistick\u00e9ho modelu se p\u0159esunulo do v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 ekonomiky. N\u00e1vrat z n\u00ed bude hodn\u011b, ale hodn\u011b bolet. Ot\u00e1zka je, jestli je v\u016fbec mo\u017en\u00fd.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.dw.com\/…\/china-russia-economy…\/a-77193402<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Evropa, Ukrajina i Rusko krv\u00e1c\u00ed. Tak dlouho Evropan\u00e9 odm\u00edtali Keitha Kelloga, a\u017e p\u0159i\u0161el Steve Witkoff a Jared Kushner. Tak dlouho budou Evropan\u00e9 doufat v impeachment Donalda Trumpa, a\u017e jej nahrad\u00ed J. D. Vance. Tak dlouho bude Evropsk\u00e1 komise v\u011b\u0159it ve vlastn\u00ed s\u00edlu, v klimatick\u00e9 sny, mor\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnoty a ambice geopolitick\u00e9 velmoci, a\u017e se tyto utopick\u00e9 p\u0159edstavy rozplynou jako prach a Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 tu transak\u010dn\u00ed politiku s Ruskem dot\u00e1hnou do konce.<\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm se p\u0159edlu\u017e\u00edme, ekonomiky N\u011bmecka a Francie za\u010dnou je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce drhnout ne\u017e nyn\u00ed a nastoup\u00ed „mesi\u00e1\u0161i“ v podob\u011b AfD, Marine Le Pen a dal\u0161\u00edch. Je to p\u0159irozen\u00e9, lid\u00e9 na \u00fapadek reaguj\u00ed zm\u011bnou, car Mikul\u00e1\u0161 by mohl vypr\u00e1v\u011bt. Jen ta zm\u011bna nen\u00ed v\u017edy k lep\u0161\u00edmu.<\/p>\n

Unijn\u00ed exekutiva dnes st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 legend\u00e1rn\u00ed sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9 komando z filmu \u017divot Briana. St\u0159\u00edl\u00ed se do hlavy dnes a denn\u011b a u toho v\u00edt\u011bzoslavn\u011b prohla\u0161uj\u00ed, jak je „Evropsk\u00e1 unie nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v historii“ a d\u00e1vaj\u00ed najevo, jak jim to v\u0161em nandali.<\/p>\n

\u0160koda, kdysi d\u00e1vno b\u00fdvala Evropsk\u00e1 unie skute\u010dn\u011b skv\u011bl\u00fd projekt.<\/p>\n

\u0160alom<\/p>\n

Thomas Paukner<\/a><\/p>\n

Foto Putin: WIki<\/em><\/span>
\nFoto Salman: Wiki<\/em><\/span>
\nFoto Ursula: Wiki<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Existuje ve\u0159ejn\u011b p\u0159ijat\u00e1 teze – zbav\u00edme se paliv z Ruska, Putin\u016fv re\u017eim padne. Je to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":99365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[285,283,1068,371,310],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118583"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118583"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118583\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}