{"id":118542,"date":"2026-10-16T00:24:54","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T22:24:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=118542"},"modified":"2026-10-15T08:39:34","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T06:39:34","slug":"saudska-arabie-na-pokraji-kolapsu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/16\/saudska-arabie-na-pokraji-kolapsu\/","title":{"rendered":"Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie na pokraji kolapsu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Sedm a\u017e deset let rekonstrukce, \u00fa\u010det za bilion dolar\u016f a naftov\u00e1 krize, kterou Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie u\u017e nen\u00ed schopna absorbovat.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Od za\u010d\u00e1tku t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky fungovala Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie jako n\u00e1razn\u00edk na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu s ropou. Kdy\u017e byl uzav\u0159en Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, Rij\u00e1d p\u0159epravoval ropu na z\u00e1pad prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm ropovodu V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad do Yanbu u Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, \u010d\u00edm\u017e si udr\u017eel alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho exportu. Tento obchvat je nyn\u00ed ohro\u017een. Skupina Ansar Allah obsadila ostrovy v \u00fast\u00ed Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, vyhl\u00e1sila \u201en\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed embargo\u201c na sa\u00fadskou lodn\u00ed dopravu a p\u0159ihl\u00e1sila se k odpov\u011bdnosti za \u00fatoky na sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 leti\u0161t\u011b. V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed zas\u00e1hly drony ropovod V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad, jeho\u017e velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st je nyn\u00ed mimo provoz. Rij\u00e1d z \u00fatoku obvinil ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 milice podporovan\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1nem. 4. \u0159\u00edjna byla poprv\u00e9 zasa\u017eena \u010derpac\u00ed stanice v Ch\u00farais v\u00fdchodn\u011b od Rij\u00e1du a ropovod byl znovu uzav\u0159en.<\/span><\/p>\n

Karl Miller, jeho\u017e d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed palivov\u00e9 krize jsem ji\u017e citoval, pr\u00e1v\u011b dokon\u010dil novou anal\u00fdzu toho, co tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 znamen\u00e1 pro Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii a sv\u011bt. Jeho z\u00e1v\u011br je jednozna\u010dn\u00fd: obnova energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu bude trvat mnohem d\u00e9le a bude st\u00e1t mnohem v\u00edce, ne\u017e je kdokoli ve Washingtonu ochoten p\u0159ipustit, a na Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii se ji\u017e nelze spol\u00e9hat, \u017ee tuto mezeru zapln\u00ed. Zde jsou jeho hlavn\u00ed zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Obchvat je nejslab\u0161\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nkem<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Miller vych\u00e1z\u00ed z p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee ropovod nen\u00ed jen potrub\u00ed. Je to propojen\u00fd syst\u00e9m \u010derpac\u00edch stanic, zdroj\u016f energie, \u0159\u00eddic\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, skladovac\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed a nakl\u00e1dac\u00edch ramp, jeho\u017e odolnost z\u00e1vis\u00ed na jeho nejslab\u0161\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku. Po\u0161kozen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed utrp\u011bly \u010derpac\u00ed stanice East-West, \u0159\u00edjnov\u00fd v\u00fdpadek v Khurais, po\u017e\u00e1r v energetick\u00e9m komplexu v Rij\u00e1du a naru\u0161en\u00ed sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 dopravy, to v\u0161e ovlivnilo tento syst\u00e9m na r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00edch. Ropovod byl \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b opraven, ale Miller varuje p\u0159ed mo\u017enost\u00ed trval\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Provoz v Yanbu lze odstavit, ani\u017e by na p\u0159\u00edstav dopadla jedin\u00e1 bomba: pokud ropa p\u0159estane p\u0159ich\u00e1zet, tankery p\u0159estanou tankovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 nedoporu\u010duje pova\u017eovat ka\u017edou po\u0161kozenou stanici za p\u0159edstavuj\u00edc\u00ed fixn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st ztracen\u00e9 kapacity. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd je pr\u016ftok, kter\u00fd odhaduje na z\u00e1klad\u011b referen\u010dn\u00ed hodnoty 5,8 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b p\u0159epravovan\u00fdch koridorem. \u00dapln\u00e9 p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159epravy po dobu sedmi dn\u016f ohro\u017euje p\u0159epravu 40,6 milionu barel\u016f; po dobu 30 dn\u016f by se toto \u010d\u00edslo zv\u00fd\u0161ilo na 174 milion\u016f. Zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o v\u00fdpo\u010det extr\u00e9mn\u00edho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, nikoli o posouzen\u00ed \u00fapln\u00e9ho uzav\u0159en\u00ed ropovodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Rekonstrukce nyn\u00ed trv\u00e1 od roku 2033 do roku 2036<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Ve sv\u00e9m p\u0159edchoz\u00edm \u010dl\u00e1nku Miller p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal p\u011btilet\u00fd \u010dasov\u00fd r\u00e1mec pro obnovu po\u0161kozen\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho komplexu v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Nyn\u00ed jej prodlou\u017eil na sedm a\u017e deset let pro nejv\u00e1\u017en\u011bji po\u0161kozen\u00e9 propojen\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee obnova se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b mezi \u0159\u00edjnem 2033 a \u0159\u00edjnem 2036. \u010c\u00e1st v\u00fdroby se obnov\u00ed d\u0159\u00edve, ale pln\u00fd a spolehliv\u00fd provoz nebude obnoven d\u0159\u00edve.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fvodem je za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Velk\u00e9 kompresory, turb\u00edny, vysokonap\u011b\u0165ov\u00e9 transform\u00e1tory, specializovan\u00e9 tlakov\u00e9 n\u00e1doby a integrovan\u00e9 \u0159\u00eddic\u00ed syst\u00e9my se vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed na zak\u00e1zku a nelze je zachr\u00e1nit ze skladu. Jeho kritick\u00fd \u010dasov\u00fd harmonogram pro v\u00fdm\u011bnu takov\u00e9 sestavy je 84 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f: jeden rok na posouzen\u00ed \u0161kod a financov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1vrhu, t\u0159i roky na po\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a v\u00fdrobu, dva roky na dod\u00e1vku a instalaci a jeden rok na uveden\u00ed do provozu a stabilizaci. Nejistota na m\u00edst\u011b, pot\u00ed\u017ee s financov\u00e1n\u00edm, zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed v tov\u00e1rn\u011b a opakovan\u00e9 \u00fatoky by se mohly prot\u00e1hnout a\u017e na dal\u0161\u00ed t\u0159i roky. Jak s\u00e1m \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, pen\u00edze mohou zajistit m\u00edsto ve v\u00fdrob\u011b, ale nemohou urychlit ka\u017edou f\u00e1zi in\u017een\u00fdrstv\u00ed a v\u00fdroby.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. N\u00e1vrh z\u00e1kona o rozpo\u010dtu od 550 do 2 280 miliard dolar\u016f<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Miller modeluje rekonstrukci \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, v\u010detn\u011b Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie, podle t\u0159\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f. Jasn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o finan\u010dn\u00ed projekce zalo\u017een\u00e9 na stanoven\u00fdch p\u0159edpokladech, a nikoli o auditovan\u00e9 odhady \u0161kod ani o \u010dist\u011b sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/p>\n

V p\u0159echodn\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i mus\u00ed b\u00fdt jen v prvn\u00edch dvou letech vynalo\u017eeno 180 miliard dolar\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e mezi t\u0159et\u00edm a p\u00e1t\u00fdm rokem se tato \u010d\u00e1stka zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na 540 miliard dolar\u016f. B\u011bhem sedmi let to v pr\u016fm\u011bru p\u0159esahuje 170 miliard dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b. A st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu budou v\u0161echny sout\u011b\u017eit o stejn\u00e9 v\u00fdrobce, stejn\u00e9 in\u017een\u00fdrsk\u00e9 firmy, stejn\u00e1 staveni\u0161t\u011b a stejn\u00e9 specializovan\u00e9 t\u00fdmy. Transform\u00e1torovou stanici ud\u011blenou Kuvajtu nebo Kataru Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie z\u00edskat nem\u016f\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed je n\u00e1kladn\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Miller si za \u010dek\u00e1n\u00ed vyty\u010duje svou cenu. T\u0159\u00edlet\u00e9 odlo\u017een\u00ed hlavn\u00edho programu by mohlo zv\u00fd\u0161it n\u00e1klady o 76 a\u017e 125 miliard dolar\u016f, plus dal\u0161\u00edch 42 a\u017e 90 miliard dolar\u016f na financov\u00e1n\u00ed. Palivo se mezit\u00edm st\u00e1le mus\u00ed n\u011bkde nakupovat: za ka\u017ed\u00fd rok, kdy nen\u00ed zaru\u010dena dod\u00e1vka 1 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, je nutn\u00e9 nahradit 365 milion\u016f barel\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159i orienta\u010dn\u00ed cen\u011b 150 dolar\u016f za barel stoj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 55 miliard dolar\u016f. Pokud by se tento celkov\u00fd nedostatek 3 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b po dal\u0161\u00ed t\u0159i roky nepoda\u0159ilo vyrovnat, znamenalo by to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 500 miliard dolar\u016f na n\u00e1kup n\u00e1hradn\u00ed ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. Nedostatek nafty se zhor\u0161uje<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Miller\u016fv z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 st\u00e1le p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 minim\u00e1ln\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit nafty a petroleje ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b. \u00datoky na Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii hroz\u00ed, \u017ee tuto situaci zhor\u0161\u00ed. Pokud naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek zabr\u00e1n\u00ed tomu, aby se 1 milion barel\u016f ropy denn\u011b dostalo do provozovan\u00fdch rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, ztr\u00e1ta nafty a petroleje dos\u00e1hne p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 300 000 a\u017e 450 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b. Dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dist\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta 500 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed jeho z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 na 3,5 milionu barel\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje n\u00e1r\u016fst o \u0161estinu a ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc se tak deficit zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na 15 milion\u016f barel\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e1v\u00e1 si pozor, aby nezapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1val stejn\u00e9 objemy dvakr\u00e1t: ztracen\u00e1 ropa, produkce rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, kterou by ropa generovala, a chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed exportn\u00ed z\u00e1silky by mohly odpov\u00eddat stejn\u00fdm barel\u016fm. Trend je v\u0161ak jasn\u00fd. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie byla hlavn\u00edm zdrojem z\u00e1sob pro Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv. Pokud je jej\u00ed obtokov\u00fd syst\u00e9m nespolehliv\u00fd, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit se zvy\u0161uje.<\/span><\/p>\n

6. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nedok\u00e1\u017eou zmen\u0161it rozd\u00edl<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Millerova anal\u00fdza americk\u00fdch kapacit nut\u00ed k zamy\u0161len\u00ed. B\u011bhem \u010dty\u0159 t\u00fddn\u016f p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch 2. \u0159\u00edjnu americk\u00e9 rafinerie vyprodukovaly p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 5,17 milionu barel\u016f destil\u00e1t\u016f denn\u011b, vyvezly 1,56 milionu a na dom\u00e1c\u00edm trhu spot\u0159ebovaly 3,77 milionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dopln\u011bn\u00ed deficitu 3 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b by vy\u017eadovalo produkci destil\u00e1t\u016f o 58 % vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e je sou\u010dasn\u00e1 produkce americk\u00fdch rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed. Produkce v USA je jen o zhruba 150 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed rokem. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 20kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed. Slibov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho exportu nevytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v\u00edce paliva. Pouze p\u0159esouv\u00e1 nedostatek z jednoho kupce na druh\u00e9ho a vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1 americk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby.<\/span><\/p>\n

7. Potravin\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, n\u00e1kladn\u00ed doprava a leteck\u00e1 doprava<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Palivov\u00e1 krize ji\u017e m\u00e1 dopad na re\u00e1lnou ekonomiku. Ceny obil\u00ed vzrostly o 17,2 procenta ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s lo\u0148sk\u00fdm rokem. Zem\u011bd\u011blci pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed naftu, aby jejich sklize\u0148 byla ziskov\u00e1, \u0159idi\u010di kamion\u016f ji pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed k placen\u00ed \u00fa\u010dt\u016f a chladic\u00ed syst\u00e9my ji pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed k dod\u00e1vce potravin do reg\u00e1l\u016f. Leteck\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed na leti\u0161t\u00edch, kter\u00e1 obsluhuj\u00ed, certifikovan\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 palivo a nafta ho nem\u016f\u017ee nahradit. Millerovo varov\u00e1n\u00ed zn\u00ed, \u017ee nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kupuj\u00edc\u00ed \u2013 zem\u011b s nedostatkem ciz\u00ed m\u011bny a \u00fav\u011br\u016f \u2013 nebudou jen platit v\u00edce. Budou zcela vy\u0159azeni z trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u016fj \u00fahel pohledu<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Millerova anal\u00fdza potvrzuje to, co \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m u\u017e m\u011bs\u00edce: energetick\u00e9 \u0161kody zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 touto v\u00e1lkou nejsou jen do\u010dasn\u00fdm n\u00e1r\u016fstem cen, kter\u00fd skon\u010d\u00ed podeps\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159epravn\u00ed trasy nesta\u010d\u00ed k obnov\u011b rafinerie. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, kter\u00e1 byla je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edci pova\u017eov\u00e1na za sv\u011btovou \u201epojistku\u201c, je nyn\u00ed sama zdrojem rizika a jej\u00ed ekonomika je toho d\u016fkazem: aktivita sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9ho ropn\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed klesla o \u010dtvrtinu a HDP se sn\u00ed\u017eil o 4,8 %. Obnova Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu bude trvat roky a bude st\u00e1t biliony dolar\u016f a sv\u011bt bude po v\u011bt\u0161inu t\u00e9to doby \u010delit nedostatku nafty.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto kontextu je t\u0159eba vn\u00edmat v\u0161echny sliby vych\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z Washingtonu, a\u0165 u\u017e se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 nafty, z\u00e1kaz\u016f v\u00fdvozu nebo tvrzen\u00ed o brzk\u00e9m poklesu cen. Jak Miller uzav\u00edr\u00e1, o\u017eiven\u00ed se bude m\u011b\u0159it skute\u010dn\u011b dodan\u00fdm palivem, nikoli ohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdmi opravami nebo inzerovan\u00fdm sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm cen.<\/span><\/p>\n

od <\/span>Larryho Johnsona<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sedm a\u017e deset let rekonstrukce, \u00fa\u010det za bilion dolar\u016f a naftov\u00e1 krize, kterou Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":118543,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2145,371,1012],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118542"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118542"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118542\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}