{"id":118528,"date":"2026-10-16T00:18:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T22:18:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=118528"},"modified":"2026-10-15T08:15:00","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T06:15:00","slug":"larry-c-johnson-ropovod-ktery-mel-zachranit-saudskou-arabii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/16\/larry-c-johnson-ropovod-ktery-mel-zachranit-saudskou-arabii\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry C. Johnson: Ropovod, kter\u00fd m\u011bl zachr\u00e1nit Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V\u00fdchodoz\u00e1padn\u00ed ropovod do Yanbu se zhrout\u00ed \u2013 a s n\u00edm i posledn\u00ed spolehliv\u00e1 cesta kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, jak obej\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se na konci \u00fanora uzav\u0159el Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie m\u011bla k dispozici n\u011bco, co nem\u011bl prakticky \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd jin\u00fd producent v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu: velkou alternativu. Ropovod V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad, v oboru zn\u00e1m\u00fd jako Petroline, p\u0159epravuje ropu p\u0159es 1200 kilometr\u016f p\u0159es pou\u0161\u0165 z ropn\u00fdch pol\u00ed ve V\u00fdchodn\u00ed provincii do Yanbu u Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e. Jeho maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacita je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 7 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b. Po sedm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f byl d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d se sv\u011bt mohl nad\u00e1le spol\u00e9hat na sa\u00fadskou ropu. Toto z\u00e1chrann\u00e9 lano nyn\u00ed selhalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak syst\u00e9m funguje<\/span><\/h2>\n

Karl Miller pr\u00e1v\u011b zmapoval s\u00ed\u0165 a jeho pr\u00e1ce jasn\u011b ilustruje, pro\u010d je toto ropovodn\u00e9 potrub\u00ed tak zraniteln\u00e9. Ropa neproud\u00ed jen tak z vrtu do potrub\u00ed. Je t\u011b\u017eena z vrt\u016f hlavn\u00edch lo\u017eisek \u2013 Ghawar, Khurais, Shaybah a dal\u0161\u00edch \u2013 a transportov\u00e1na potrub\u00edm do z\u00e1vod\u016f na separaci ropy a plynu, kde se odd\u011bluje ropa, plyn a voda. Pot\u00e9 putuje do Abqaiq, stabiliza\u010dn\u00edho centra v srdci syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e 18 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na stabilizaci ropy. Teprve pot\u00e9 vstupuje do v\u00fdchodoz\u00e1padn\u00edho koridoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Samotn\u00fd ropovod se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na 11 hlavn\u00edch \u010derpac\u00edch stanic, kter\u00e9 tla\u010d\u00ed ropu nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d zem\u00ed, a tak\u00e9 na dv\u011b samostatn\u00e9 p\u0159etlakov\u00e9 stanice, kter\u00e9 chr\u00e1n\u00ed ropovod, ale neposkytuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou dodate\u010dnou \u010derpac\u00ed kapacitu. V Yanbu se ropa p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1 do skladovac\u00edch n\u00e1dr\u017e\u00ed, rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed a tanker\u016f. Ka\u017ed\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek \u0159et\u011bzce mus\u00ed fungovat. Jak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Miller, ropovod je propojen\u00fd syst\u00e9m tlaku, energie a \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a Yanbu m\u016f\u017ee zastavit nakl\u00e1dac\u00ed operace, ani\u017e by na p\u0159\u00edstav dopadla jedin\u00e1 bomba \u2013 pokud u\u017e nedoraz\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 ropa.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010cty\u0159i stanice mimo provoz<\/span><\/h2>\n

P\u0159esn\u011b to se nyn\u00ed d\u011bje. Mohu potvrdit, \u017ee \u010dty\u0159i ze t\u0159in\u00e1cti stanic ropovodu jsou mimo provoz. \u00datok dronu 11. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed ropovod na t\u00fddny z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti paralyzoval; Rij\u00e1d z n\u011bj obvinil milice v Ir\u00e1ku podporovan\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Opravy obnovily tok vody jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b, kdy\u017e byla 4. \u0159\u00edjna poprv\u00e9 zasa\u017eena \u010derpac\u00ed stanice v Ch\u00farais v\u00fdchodn\u011b od Rij\u00e1du, co\u017e ropovod op\u011bt uzav\u0159elo. K tomuto \u00fatoku se zat\u00edm nikdo nep\u0159ihl\u00e1sil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Miller varuje p\u0159ed pouh\u00fdm p\u0159evodem po\u010dtu selhan\u00fdch stanic na ztr\u00e1ty kapacity: ztr\u00e1ta jedn\u00e9 t\u0159etiny stanic neznamen\u00e1 automaticky ztr\u00e1tu p\u0159esn\u011b jedn\u00e9 t\u0159etiny pr\u016ftoku. Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edmi faktory jsou um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed po\u0161kozen\u00fdch stanic, dostupn\u00e9 obj\u00ed\u017e\u010fky a tlak, kter\u00fd zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed \u010derpadla dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed udr\u017eet. Ropovod, kter\u00fd ztratil n\u011bkolik sv\u00fdch \u010derpac\u00edch stanic, nem\u016f\u017ee fungovat s ni\u010d\u00edm bl\u00edzk\u00fdm sv\u00e9 jmenovit\u00e9 kapacit\u011b a n\u00e1hradn\u00ed \u010derpadla, turb\u00edny a transform\u00e1tory jsou za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed vyroben\u00e1 na m\u00edru s dlouh\u00fdmi dodac\u00edmi lh\u016ftami. Za p\u0159edpokladu propustnosti 5,8 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b Miller vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u00fapln\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed koridoru by ohrozilo p\u0159epravu 40,6 milionu barel\u016f ropy b\u011bhem t\u00fddne a 174 milion\u016f barel\u016f b\u011bhem m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ropovod je na obou konc\u00edch pod tlakem. Na stran\u011b Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e skupina Ansar Allah obsadila ostrovy u vstupu do Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, v\u010detn\u011b Perimu v pr\u016flivu Bab al-Mandab, a v \u010dervenci zavedla z\u00e1kaz n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravy pro sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 lod\u011b. Tankery s ropou z Yanbu a Rabighu sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed do Asie a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Afriky nyn\u00ed mus\u00ed cestovat na sever Suezsk\u00fdm pr\u016fplavem, co\u017e jim prodlu\u017euje cestu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o m\u011bs\u00edc. I barely, kter\u00e9 se do Yanbu dostanou, se proto prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed pomaleji a vy\u017eaduj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co \u00cdr\u00e1n ud\u011blal<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u0160kody na \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu se odehr\u00e1ly ve dvou samostatn\u00fdch kampan\u00edch a je vhodn\u00e9 je rozli\u0161ovat. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky prob\u011bhly v prvn\u00edch t\u00fddnech v\u00e1lky v b\u0159eznu a dubnu a byly zam\u011b\u0159eny na pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Mexick\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a exportn\u00ed termin\u00e1ly. Rafinerie Ras Tanura s kapacitou 550 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b byla odstavena p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na t\u00fdden. Nakl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed v Yanbu bylo kr\u00e1tce zastaveno a na rafinerii SAMREF v Yanbu havaroval dron. V dubnu byla odstavena za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v rafin\u00e9rii a petrochemick\u00e9m komplexu SATORP v Jubailu s kapacitou 460 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b; zasa\u017eena byla rafinerie v Rij\u00e1du; po\u017e\u00e1ry v plyn\u00e1rensk\u00e9 stanici Ju’aymah naru\u0161ily v\u00fdvoz zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu a kapaln\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu; a v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacita v Manifa a Khurais byla sn\u00ed\u017eena p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 300 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b. \u0160ajba byla opakovan\u011b napadena. Ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy neuv\u00e1d\u011bly pachatele ka\u017ed\u00e9ho \u00fatoku b\u011bhem jara, ale odehr\u00e1ly se b\u011bhem \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b a sledovaly jej\u00ed vzorce: pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed, zpracovatelsk\u00e1 centra a v\u00fdchody.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co ud\u011blali Ansar All\u00e1h<\/span><\/h2>\n

Kampa\u0148 Ansar Allah za\u010dala pozd\u011bji, trv\u00e1 d\u00e9le a p\u0159esouv\u00e1 se d\u00e1le na sever. V srpnu hnut\u00ed za\u00fato\u010dilo na rafinerii spole\u010dnosti Aramco v D\u017eiz\u00e1nu, kter\u00e1 9. srpna vzplanula, a p\u0159ihl\u00e1silo se k odpov\u011bdnosti za \u00fatok v Najranu. 7. a 8. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed za\u00fato\u010dilo na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Aramco v D\u017eiz\u00e1nu, Najranu a Abh\u00e1, \u010d\u00edm\u017e zastavilo provoz a zranilo 73 lid\u00ed. 3. \u0159\u00edjna se p\u0159ihl\u00e1silo k \u00fatoku na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Aramco ji\u017en\u011b od Rij\u00e1du. Pot\u00e9, 10. \u0159\u00edjna, zas\u00e1hlo Ghawar, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed konven\u010dn\u00ed ropn\u00e9 pole na sv\u011bt\u011b. Nez\u00e1visle jsem potvrdil, \u017ee Ghawar byl zasa\u017een. Rij\u00e1d se ke \u0161kod\u00e1m nevyj\u00e1d\u0159il. Hnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zah\u00e1jilo tuto v\u00e1lku \u00fatokem na c\u00edle pobl\u00ed\u017e jemensk\u00fdch hranic, nyn\u00ed dos\u00e1hlo zdroje ropy, kter\u00fd z\u00e1sobuje ropovod \u2013 v\u00edce ne\u017e 1 000 kilometr\u016f daleko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kombinace t\u011bchto dvou kampan\u00ed vykresluje drsn\u00fd obraz. \u00cdr\u00e1n po\u0161kodil rafinerie a zpracovatelsk\u00e9 z\u00e1vody na pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Mexick\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu; Ansar Allah za\u00fato\u010dil na vnitrozemsk\u00e1 pole a ovl\u00e1dl n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasu na druh\u00e9m konci koridoru; a ropovod mezi nimi ztratil \u010dty\u0159i ze sv\u00fdch t\u0159in\u00e1cti stanic. Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie ztr\u00e1c\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k Persk\u00e9mu z\u00e1livu, p\u0159\u00edstup k Rud\u00e9mu mo\u0159i a ropovod, kter\u00fd tyto dv\u011b oblasti spojuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody<\/span><\/h2>\n

N\u00e1klady se ji\u017e za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed projevovat. Ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed klesla sa\u00fadskoarabsk\u00e1 ropn\u00e1 aktivita meziro\u010dn\u011b o 24,7 procenta a ekonomika se zmen\u0161ila o 4,8 procenta \u2013 co\u017e je nejhor\u0161\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed od pandemie. Hodnota exportu ropy v roce 2025 \u010dinila p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 212 miliard dolar\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje zhruba 17 procent HDP, a p\u0159\u00edjmy z ropy financuj\u00ed sa\u00fadsk\u00fd st\u00e1t i velkou \u010d\u00e1st toho, co je klasifikov\u00e1no jako neropn\u00e1 ekonomika.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd ukazatel<\/span><\/strong><\/th>\nRozsah<\/span><\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
V\u00fdchodoz\u00e1padn\u00ed plynovod<\/span><\/td>\n4 z 13 stanic mimo provoz; nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacita p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 7 milion\u016f barel\u016f\/den<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00dapln\u00e9 zastaven\u00ed chodby (Miller)<\/span><\/td>\n40,6 milionu barel\u016f t\u00fddn\u011b v ohro\u017een\u00ed; 174 milion\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ka\u017ed\u00fd 1 milion barel\u016f\/den ztracen\u00e9ho exportu<\/span><\/td>\nP\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 30\u201333 miliard dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159i cen\u011b ropy 80\u201390 dolar\u016f<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed kapacity v Manif\u011b a Khurais (jaro)<\/span><\/td>\nP\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 600 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e p\u0159i cen\u011b ropy 90 dolar\u016f p\u0159edstavuje zhruba 20 miliard dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ghawar<\/span><\/td>\nP\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3,8 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b s rizikovou kapacitou<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rekonstrukce v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu (Miller)<\/span><\/td>\n550 miliard a\u017e 2,28 bilionu dolar\u016f b\u011bhem sedmi a\u017e deseti let<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

Odhady p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f jsou m\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty. Kapacita pole a potrub\u00ed jsou p\u0159ibli\u017en\u00e9 hodnoty.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Millerovo nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed odhaduje n\u00e1klady na obnovu po\u0161kozen\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu na 550 a\u017e 2,28 bilionu dolar\u016f za sedm a\u017e deset let. To ovliv\u0148uje cel\u00fd region, ale Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie bude soupe\u0159it s Katarem, Kuvajtem, SAE a Ir\u00e1kem o stejn\u00e9 v\u00fdrobce, in\u017een\u00fdry a pracovn\u00ed s\u00edlu. \u010cerpac\u00ed stanice nelze opravit n\u00e1hradn\u00edmi d\u00edly z jen tak ledajak\u00e9ho skladu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro zbytek sv\u011bta byl ropovod V\u00fdchod-Z\u00e1pad jejich pojistkou. Dokud fungoval, sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 ropa se mohla dostat na trh bez ohledu na to, co se stalo v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu. Nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e jsou \u010dty\u0159i z jeho t\u0159in\u00e1cti \u010derpac\u00edch stanic mimo provoz, Ghawar byl zasa\u017een a Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e je napadeno, tato pojistka vypr\u0161ela. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed nedostatek nafty a leteck\u00e9ho paliva se zhor\u0161\u00ed a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, dodavatel posledn\u00ed instance, nyn\u00ed bojuje sp\u00ed\u0161e o ochranu sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed ekonomiky, ne\u017e aby zachra\u0148ovala n\u011bkoho jin\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00fdchodoz\u00e1padn\u00ed ropovod do Yanbu se zhrout\u00ed \u2013 a s n\u00edm i posledn\u00ed spolehliv\u00e1 cesta kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":118529,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,3008,1012],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118528"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118528"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118528\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118529"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}