{"id":118503,"date":"2026-10-15T04:57:15","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T02:57:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=118503"},"modified":"2026-10-15T04:57:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T02:57:15","slug":"skutecny-geopoliticky-vyznam-dohody-trumpa-a-putina-o-nafte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/15\/skutecny-geopoliticky-vyznam-dohody-trumpa-a-putina-o-nafte\/","title":{"rendered":"Skute\u010dn\u00fd geopolitick\u00fd v\u00fdznam dohody Trumpa a Putina o naft\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Na prvn\u00ed pohled se Donald Trump sna\u017e\u00ed zm\u00edrnit tlak na americk\u00fd energetick\u00fd trh p\u0159ed volbami v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed. V\u00fdznam dohody o naft\u011b v\u0161ak jde daleko za to. Osvobozuje Rusko od \u010c\u00edny. A spolu s blok\u00e1dou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ropy posiluje USA v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusko okam\u017eit\u011b dod\u00e1v\u00e1 na americk\u00fd a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed trh v\u00edce ne\u017e 300 000 tun nafty, dal\u0161\u00edch 500 000 tun bude n\u00e1sledovat v listopadu a bezprost\u0159edn\u011b pot\u00e9 jeden milion tun. Americk\u00fd prezident tak\u00e9 sl\u00edbil dal\u0161\u00ed t\u0159i miliony tun, kter\u00e9 by Moskva m\u011bla dodat v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu, v z\u00e1vislosti na stavu sv\u00fdch rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed. Celkov\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed tak dosahuje v\u00edce ne\u017e 4,8 milionu tun paliva ( <\/span>jak jsme informovali<\/span><\/a> ).<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle jeho ozn\u00e1men\u00ed je Trumpov\u00fdm c\u00edlem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny pro Ameri\u010dany, zejm\u00e9na pro farm\u00e1\u0159e, ran\u010de\u0159e a \u0159idi\u010de kamion\u016f na dlouh\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti. A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b chce tak\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017eit n\u00e1klady na energie, aby pos\u00edlil mor\u00e1lku, zejm\u00e9na p\u0159ed volbami do poloviny volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem listopadu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 Trump zv\u00fd\u0161il tlak na ukrajinskou vl\u00e1du, aby ukon\u010dila \u00fatoky na rusk\u00e9 rafinerie, s argumentem, \u017ee tyto \u00fatoky negativn\u011b ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed ceny na glob\u00e1ln\u00edch trz\u00edch. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Volodymyr Zelenskyj se uk\u00e1zal b\u00fdt v\u016f\u010di tomu i v\u016f\u010di m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohod\u011b s Ruskem odm\u00edtav\u00fd, Trump znovu nastolil mo\u017enost odvol\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta. Zda se USA poda\u0159\u00ed v t\u00e9to oblasti dos\u00e1hnout alespo\u0148 n\u011bkter\u00fdch ze sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, se teprve uvid\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vztah mezi Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou<\/span><\/h3>\n

V\u00fdznam Trumpovy dohody s Ruskem o naft\u011b sah\u00e1 daleko za tyto z\u0159ejm\u00e9 aspekty. Souvis\u00ed s Trumpovou celkovou strategi\u00ed omezit \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd vliv \u2013 a se z\u00e1jmem Ruska o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kv\u016fli sankc\u00edm uvalen\u00fdm EU, Bidenovou administrativou, Japonskem a dal\u0161\u00edmi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi zem\u011bmi bylo Rusko siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na hled\u00e1n\u00ed alternativn\u00edch odb\u011bratel\u016f pro sv\u016fj export ropy a plynu. Krom\u011b Indie byla \u010c\u00edna hlavn\u00edm zdrojem t\u011bchto odb\u011bratel\u016f. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed se v\u0161ak nechovalo jako \u201ep\u0159\u00edtel\u201c, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e zneu\u017e\u00edvalo rusk\u00e9 sv\u00edzeln\u00e9 situace k drastick\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed cen \u2013 a k tomu, aby Rusko st\u00e1le v\u00edce odsouvalo do role druho\u0159ad\u00e9, pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 mocnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed na to nezapomn\u011blo. A Peking se tak\u00e9 projevil jako neloaj\u00e1ln\u00ed ohledn\u011b v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b. \u010c\u00edna sice Rusko neodsoudila, ale tak\u00e9 mu neposkytla \u017e\u00e1dnou skute\u010dnou podporu. \u010c\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b se podvolila tlaku z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed, st\u00e1hla se z energetick\u00e9ho projektu s Ruskem a jej\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsky ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9 banky BRICS dodr\u017euj\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed omezen\u00ed. \u010c\u00edna nav\u00edc nad\u00e1le dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Ukrajin\u011b optick\u00e1 vl\u00e1kna, drony a n\u00e1hradn\u00ed d\u00edly nezbytn\u00e9 pro v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geopolitick\u00e1 strategie USA<\/span><\/h3>\n

Rusko chce zabr\u00e1nit nadm\u011brn\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na tomto neloaj\u00e1ln\u00edm spojenci. USA pod Trumpem zase cht\u011bj\u00ed \u010c\u00edn\u011b, sv\u00e9mu hlavn\u00edmu geopolitick\u00e9mu rivalovi, co nejv\u00edce zt\u00ed\u017eit p\u0159\u00edstup k rusk\u00fdm surovin\u00e1m. To je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed strategie omezov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho vlivu, kterou USA pod Trumpem prosazuj\u00ed v \u010dele s Elbridgem Colbym, n\u00e1m\u011bstkem ministra v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA pod Trumpov\u00fdm veden\u00edm se v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nechystaj\u00ed k vojensk\u00e9 konfrontaci s \u010c\u00ednou (jako to ud\u011blali globalist\u00e9 v EU a ameri\u010dt\u00ed demokrat\u00e9 s Ruskem). Jsou ochotny s \u010c\u00ednou spolupracovat, ale cht\u011bj\u00ed jednat z pozice s\u00edly. A jeliko\u017e \u010c\u00edna zauj\u00edm\u00e1 dominantn\u00ed postaven\u00ed na st\u00e1le d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm trhu s prvky vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin, sna\u017e\u00ed se j\u00ed USA \u010delit, alespo\u0148 v oblasti glob\u00e1ln\u00edch energetick\u00fdch trh\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

To zahrnuje na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b kontrolu nad z\u00e1sobami ropy a plynu a na stran\u011b druh\u00e9 kontrolu nad energetick\u00fdmi trasami. A za pouh\u00fd rok a p\u016fl Trumpova administrativa v t\u011bchto oblastech ji\u017e dos\u00e1hla velk\u00e9ho. Panamsk\u00fd pr\u016fplav byl vyrv\u00e1n \u010c\u00edn\u011b a nyn\u00ed je op\u011bt pod vlivem USA. \u010c\u00edna byla tak\u00e9 vytla\u010dena z Venezuely a ropa t\u00e9to zem\u011b se dostala pod kontrolu USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b v Latinsk\u00e9 Americe z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 na s\u00edle st\u00e1le v\u00edce proamerick\u00fdch pravicov\u00fdch vl\u00e1d, brzy mo\u017en\u00e1 i v Braz\u00edlii, kde byl \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd vliv doposud zna\u010dn\u00fd ( <\/span>geopolitick\u00fd v\u00fdznam brazilsk\u00fdch voleb jsme analyzovali zde<\/span><\/a> ). A kone\u010dn\u011b, Trump ned\u00e1vno upevnil americkou nadvl\u00e1du nad bohat\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edmi zdroji Gr\u00f3nska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Situace v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a blok\u00e1dy v\u00fdvozu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy ze strany americk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva zasazuj\u00ed USA \u010c\u00edn\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1nu. V\u011bt\u0161ina \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy putovala do \u010c\u00edny. USA nav\u00edc nyn\u00ed kontroluj\u00ed tak\u00e9 v\u00fdvoz ze st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu \u2013 a mohou vyu\u017e\u00edt slabosti Kataru, Kuvajtu a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie k z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed politick\u00fdch \u00fastupk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indie, spojenec Izraele s dobr\u00fdmi vztahy s USA i Ruskem, je i nad\u00e1le dob\u0159e z\u00e1soben\u00e1. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b dost\u00e1v\u00e1 ropu z Ruska, na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b st\u00e1le v\u00edce vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edstavy v\u00fdchodn\u011b od Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu (zejm\u00e9na termin\u00e1l ve Fud\u017eaj\u0159e v SAE) a kone\u010dn\u011b Indie tak\u00e9 dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ropu z Venezuely a samotn\u00fdch USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1nsk\u00fd mull\u00e1hsk\u00fd re\u017eim je nyn\u00ed zbaven sv\u00fdch nejz\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zdroj\u016f p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f a nach\u00e1z\u00ed se na pokraji kolapsu. USA v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nemaj\u00ed z\u00e1jem na obnoven\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed a m\u00edsto toho sleduj\u00ed rozpad re\u017eimu (viz tak\u00e9 <\/span>zde<\/span><\/a> ).<\/span><\/p>\n

Je v\u0161ak docela mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee ekonomicky zahnan\u00ed mull\u00e1hov\u00e9 budou usilovat o obnovenou eskalaci p\u0159ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edmi volbami v Izraeli a USA. Ti se v\u0161ak ji\u017e dlouho neodv\u00e1\u017eili k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu \u00fatoku na nen\u00e1vid\u011bn\u00fd \u017eidovsk\u00fd st\u00e1t. Na rozd\u00edl od Trumpa by se izraelsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebr\u00e1nila dal\u0161\u00edm vojensk\u00fdm \u00fader\u016fm proti mull\u00e1h\u016fm \u2013 a na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety by reagovala odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geopolitick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky<\/span><\/h3>\n

Geopolitick\u00e9 \u00fasp\u011bchy americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy v Americe a Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu by nyn\u00ed mohly b\u00fdt n\u00e1sledov\u00e1ny sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00edm s Ruskem. Trump o to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b usiluje od sv\u00e9ho n\u00e1stupu do \u00fa\u0159adu, ale toto \u00fasil\u00ed podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 EU, Velk\u00e1 Brit\u00e1nie a n\u00e1sledn\u011b Ukrajina. A rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed je jist\u011b opatrn\u00e9 ohledn\u011b m\u00edry, do jak\u00e9 lze USA d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat (zejm\u00e9na pokud se demokrat\u00e9 vr\u00e1t\u00ed).<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by skute\u010dn\u00e1 dohoda mezi USA a Ruskem byla geopolitick\u00fdm miln\u00edkem. Trump\u016fv c\u00edl \u200b\u200bdonutit \u010c\u00ednu k v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 dohod\u011b by se stal dosa\u017eiteln\u00fdm. \u010c\u00edna by se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b musela dr\u017eet od Ameriky d\u00e1l. A v\u00fdm\u011bnou za prvky vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch zemin jako palivo by se dala dohoda uzav\u0159\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba m\u00edt na pam\u011bti i novou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed strategii USA, kterou americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da p\u0159ijala za\u010d\u00e1tkem prosince 2025. Mezi jej\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 prvky pat\u0159\u00ed: zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na americkou bezpe\u010dnost, reindustrializace, sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed s Ruskem, deeskalace s \u010c\u00ednou a kritika evropsk\u00fdch elit ( podrobnosti <\/span>viz moje anal\u00fdza zde<\/span><\/a> ).<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 dohoda by byla tak\u00e9 masivn\u00ed ranou pro globalisty, zejm\u00e9na v EU a Lond\u00fdn\u011b, kte\u0159\u00ed v posledn\u00edch letech vedou k eskalaci s Ruskem. Takov\u00e1 dohoda by tak\u00e9 podpo\u0159ila normalizaci vztah\u016f mezi Ruskem a Izraelem. V kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku by se mohly sjednotit antiglobalistick\u00e9 vlasteneck\u00e9 p\u00f3ly \u2013 konkr\u00e9tn\u011b Rusko, Trumpovsk\u00e9 USA, Ji\u017en\u00ed Amerika, Indie a Izrael \u2013 a t\u00edm by se st\u00e1le v\u00edce oslabil globalistick\u00fd t\u00e1bor (EU, Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, \u010c\u00edna, Muslimsk\u00e9 bratrstvo, Kanada).<\/span><\/p>\n

Anal\u00fdza od Erica Angerera<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Na prvn\u00ed pohled se Donald Trump sna\u017e\u00ed zm\u00edrnit tlak na americk\u00fd energetick\u00fd trh p\u0159ed volbami…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":118504,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[924,2181,2343,452,2350],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118503"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118503"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118503\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}