{"id":118422,"date":"2026-10-15T00:12:53","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T22:12:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=118422"},"modified":"2026-10-14T12:31:33","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T10:31:33","slug":"2027-zima-na-ukrajine-v-kterou-jsme-doufali-ze-neprijde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/15\/2027-zima-na-ukrajine-v-kterou-jsme-doufali-ze-neprijde\/","title":{"rendered":"2027: Zima na Ukrajin\u011b, v kterou jsme doufali, \u017ee nep\u0159ijde"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Ne\u00faprosn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 \u00fatoky a energetick\u00e1 krize spolu s ub\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi zdroji ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed vy\u017eaduj\u00ed, aby Trump nyn\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u011b zm\u011bnil svou v\u00e1le\u010dnou strategii.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159edstavme si budouc\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pro Ukrajinu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Je \u00fanor 2027. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 zima je neobvykle chladn\u00e1 a rusk\u00e9 leteck\u00e9 \u00fatoky na ukrajinskou energetickou infrastrukturu, dopravn\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165 a komunika\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b maj\u00ed st\u00e1le ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dopad. Ukrajin\u011b chyb\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 obrana proti masivn\u00edm \u00fatok\u016fm rusk\u00fdch raket, plachetnic a tryskov\u00fdch dron\u016f, zat\u00edmco rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin se sna\u017e\u00ed ochromit schopnost Ukrajiny postavit silnou arm\u00e1du a zlomit jej\u00ed v\u016fli bojovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Miliony Ukrajinc\u016f prchaj\u00ed z Kyjeva a dal\u0161\u00edch velk\u00fdch m\u011bst, proto\u017ee jim chyb\u00ed topen\u00ed, voda a elekt\u0159ina. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed ambas\u00e1dy se do\u010dasn\u011b st\u011bhuj\u00ed z hlavn\u00edho m\u011bsta do bezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch oblast\u00ed. Rusk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na datov\u00e1 centra a termin\u00e1ly Starlink za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed podkop\u00e1vat ukrajinsk\u00e9 c\u00edlen\u00ed a komunikaci na boji\u0161ti a ohro\u017euj\u00ed jej\u00ed \u0161ance na udr\u017een\u00ed posledn\u00edch dvou \u201epevnostn\u00edch m\u011bst\u201c v Donbasu, jakmile teplej\u0161\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed umo\u017en\u00ed zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed pozemn\u00edch boj\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 rostouc\u00edm obav\u00e1m z hladu, nedostatku z\u00e1sob a vystaven\u00ed chladu vyhla\u0161uj\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed organizace na Ukrajin\u011b humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed krizi. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia obvi\u0148uj\u00ed Putina ze zlo\u010din\u016f proti lidskosti a spojenci NATO nal\u00e9haj\u00ed na Washington k akci, proto\u017ee se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee jejich vize Ukrajiny jako odoln\u00e9ho \u201eocelov\u00e9ho dikobraza\u201c, po zuby ozbrojen\u00e9ho proti rusk\u00e9 agresi po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed dop\u0159edu, se st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le nerealisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Americk\u00fd Kongres, nyn\u00ed ovl\u00e1dan\u00fd demokraty po jejich drtiv\u00e9m v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v pololetn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch, vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 Trumpa, aby zastavil rusk\u00e9 \u00fatoky a mobilizoval alianci NATO k obran\u011b Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trump\u016fv arzen\u00e1l diplomatick\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed k zastaven\u00ed nebo odstra\u0161en\u00ed Ruska se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt znepokojiv\u011b omezen\u00fd. Ani hrozba nov\u00fdch ekonomick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, ani p\u0159\u00edslib nov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch dohod neoslabily Putin\u016fv odpor k p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Moskva nad\u00e1le trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed je nemo\u017en\u00e9 bez \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho m\u00edrov\u00e9ho urovn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by \u0159e\u0161ilo kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 politick\u00e9 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed ot\u00e1zky na Ukrajin\u011b a zastavilo roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO. Washington ani Evropa v\u0161ak nemaj\u00ed velk\u00fd z\u00e1jem o jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Ruskem o t\u011bchto ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch, zejm\u00e9na vzhledem k prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed krizi na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podobn\u011b bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 vypad\u00e1 i vojensk\u00e1 situace. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed z\u00e1soby protivzdu\u0161n\u00fdch raket Patriot jsou prakticky vy\u010derp\u00e1ny, vy\u010derpan\u00e9 roky v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b a mnoha m\u011bs\u00edci intenzivn\u00edch raketov\u00fdch bitev s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Ne\u017e nov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba bude moci uspokojit pot\u0159eby Ukrajiny, bude to trvat roky. Mal\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 flotila st\u00edha\u010dek F-16, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obrana proti dron\u016fm s proudov\u00fdm pohonem, byla z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti odstavena kv\u016fli probl\u00e9m\u016fm s \u00fadr\u017ebou a Evropa se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky dal\u0161\u00edch st\u00edha\u010dek na Ukrajinu by mohly NATO v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky s Ruskem nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u011b zraniteln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1padn\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed nemaj\u00ed alternativy, se p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed k riskantn\u00ed strategii \u201eeskalace k deeskalaci\u201c. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed volaj\u00ed po vytvo\u0159en\u00ed \u201ebezletov\u00e9 z\u00f3ny\u201c, v n\u00ed\u017e by bojov\u00e9 hl\u00eddky NATO sest\u0159elovaly rusk\u00e9 drony a st\u0159ely s plochou dr\u00e1hou letu v ukrajinsk\u00e9m vzdu\u0161n\u00e9m prostoru. Jeliko\u017e v\u0161ak NATO nechce riskovat p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd boj na Ukrajin\u011b, nakonec se rozhodne nasadit pozemn\u00ed a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed s\u00edly pod\u00e9l pozemn\u00edch a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch hranic rusk\u00e9 enkl\u00e1vy Kaliningrad a varovat Moskvu, \u017ee pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v jej\u00edm \u00fasil\u00ed o zbaven\u00ed Ukrajiny tepla, elekt\u0159iny a dal\u0161\u00edch \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek povede k odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ei pro obyvatele Kaliningradu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rusko a Z\u00e1pad jsou na pokraji skute\u010dn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 krize. Moskva zopakovala sv\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee na blok\u00e1du Kaliningradu zareaguje cel\u00fdm sv\u00fdm arzen\u00e1lem zbran\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b jadern\u00fdch. USA a NATO tak prakticky vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed Rusko, aby vyp\u00e1lilo prvn\u00ed v\u00fdst\u0159el proti z\u00e1padn\u00edm sil\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 ohro\u017euj\u00ed rusk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup ke Kaliningradu p\u0159es Litvu a Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nen\u00ed v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nevyhnuteln\u00fd. Bohu\u017eel se v\u0161ak st\u00e1v\u00e1 nejen p\u0159edstaviteln\u00fdm, ale tak\u00e9 st\u00e1le pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm, jeliko\u017e m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e1 USA stagnuj\u00ed a Rusko za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee Trumpova administrativa nen\u00ed schopna \u2013 a Evropa ochotna \u2013 dos\u00e1hnout v dohledn\u00e9 budoucnosti dohody, kter\u00e1 by \u0159e\u0161ila hlavn\u00ed obavy Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Co by mohl Trump\u016fv t\u00fdm ud\u011blat pro sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnosti takov\u00e9ho nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje? Za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed by byl nej\u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup z\u00e1rove\u0148 nejm\u00e9n\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd: roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it rozsah jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Moskvou tak, aby zahrnoval rozhovory o ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch evropsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti i mimo Ukrajinu. Takov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed by se zab\u00fdvala nov\u00fdmi mechanismy pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed kriz\u00ed a sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed rizik ve vztaz\u00edch s Ruskem, opat\u0159en\u00edmi na budov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bry a bezpe\u010dnosti a kontrolou konven\u010dn\u00edch a jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Perspektiva nov\u00fdch dohod v ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch z\u00e1sadn\u00edho v\u00fdznamu pro ruskou bezpe\u010dnost by Putinovi poskytla v\u00fdznamnou motivaci k zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed jeho po\u017eadavk\u016f ohledn\u011b Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Americk\u00e1 administrativa se v\u0161ak t\u00edmto sm\u011brem zat\u00edm ne\u0159\u00edd\u00ed a p\u0159edn\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed politici jej vylou\u010dili.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">I bez form\u00e1ln\u00edch rozhovor\u016f by Trump mohl podniknout dva kroky, kter\u00e9 by mohly sn\u00ed\u017eit riziko budouc\u00ed krize. Prvn\u00edm by bylo uzn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee strategie \u201eeskalace k deeskalaci\u201c, kterou Z\u00e1pad v r\u016fzn\u00fdch form\u00e1ch prosazuje od za\u010d\u00e1tku t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky, vedla sp\u00ed\u0161e k rusk\u00e9 protieskalaci ne\u017e k \u00fastupk\u016fm. Moskva trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee jej\u00ed st\u00e1le brut\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed leteck\u00e1 kampa\u0148 je reakc\u00ed na ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky dron\u016f s dlouh\u00fdm doletem na rusk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 c\u00edle, a s pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmi ukrajinsk\u00fdmi \u00fatoky zintenzivnila sv\u00e9 po\u017eadavky v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee Kyjev nedos\u00e1hl sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. Vzhledem k minim\u00e1ln\u00edmu dopadu ohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e9 \u201e40denn\u00ed vlivov\u00e9 kampan\u011b\u201c ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Volodymyra Zelensk\u00e9ho na rusk\u00e9 rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 Putinovi poskytuje hotov\u00e9 ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed pro zintenzivn\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00fdch leteck\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f, ned\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl, aby USA nad\u00e1le podporovaly ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na dlouh\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti kritick\u00fdmi \u00fadaji o c\u00edlen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Druh\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstupem by bylo otev\u0159\u00edt Moskv\u011b tzv. \u201ezadn\u00ed vr\u00e1tka\u201c: soukrom\u00fd, neform\u00e1ln\u00ed dialog mezi d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00fdm Trumpov\u00fdm vyslancem a z\u00e1stupcem Kremlu, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem by bylo vyjasnit si hranice mezi ob\u011bma stranami a p\u0159edem prodiskutovat, jak se lze vyhnout kriz\u00edm, kter\u00e9 by mohly v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch a letech vzniknout mezi Washingtonem a Moskvou, nebo je zvl\u00e1dnout.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vzhledem k intenzivn\u00ed medi\u00e1ln\u00ed pozornosti, kterou vyslanci B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu Steve Witkoff a Jared Kushner p\u0159itahuj\u00ed p\u0159i ka\u017ed\u00e9m setk\u00e1n\u00ed s Putinem nebo sv\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm prot\u011bj\u0161kem Kirillem Dmitrijevem, se pro tak diskr\u00e9tn\u00ed roli nehod\u00ed. Ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 pozornost kolem ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy \u0159editele CIA Johna Ratcliffa v Moskv\u011b podtrhuje, jak obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 je pro v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 p\u0159edstavitele v\u00e9st takov\u00e9 rozhovory v tajnosti. Trump m\u00e1 v\u0161ak nepochybn\u011b p\u0159\u00edstup ke zku\u0161en\u00fdm, ale m\u00e9n\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm odborn\u00edk\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed se pro tento \u00fakol ide\u00e1ln\u011b hod\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u0159\u00edve \u010di pozd\u011bji budou muset Washington a Moskva tyto ot\u00e1zky projednat, bez ohledu na to, zda v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b skon\u010d\u00ed u jednac\u00edho stolu, nebo p\u0159eroste ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed krizi. Vhodn\u00fd \u010das k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed t\u011bchto rozhovor\u016f je pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\">od<a href=\"https:\/\/responsiblestatecraft.org\/ukraine-energy-crisis-war\/\"> George Beebeho<\/a><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ne\u00faprosn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 \u00fatoky a energetick\u00e1 krize spolu s ub\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi zdroji ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed vy\u017eaduj\u00ed, aby Trump&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":118423,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,26,40,1101],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118422"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118422"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118422\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118423"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}