{"id":118222,"date":"2026-10-13T00:11:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T22:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=118222"},"modified":"2026-10-12T11:43:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T09:43:21","slug":"andrew-korybko-v-jakem-scenari-by-mohlo-dojit-k-mobilizaci-v-rusku-a-jak-by-mohla-reagovat-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/13\/andrew-korybko-v-jakem-scenari-by-mohlo-dojit-k-mobilizaci-v-rusku-a-jak-by-mohla-reagovat-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: V jak\u00e9m sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by mohlo doj\u00edt k mobilizaci v Rusku a jak by mohla reagovat EU?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mobilizace by s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed byla vyhl\u00e1\u0161ena pouze za \u00fa\u010delem vyu\u017eit\u00ed hroz\u00edc\u00edho pr\u016flomu na front\u011b, ale o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee EU bude jak\u00fdkoli takov\u00fd krok vyd\u00e1vat za hroz\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00fd \u00fatok, aby prosadila c\u00edle sv\u00e9 elity.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

List The Telegraph <\/span><\/a>ned\u00e1vno prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Putin p\u0159ipravuje \u201etajnou mobilizaci\u201c, v r\u00e1mci n\u00ed\u017e se \u00fadajn\u011b prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed administrativn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpravy pro p\u0159\u00edpad, \u017ee by se rozhodl vyhl\u00e1sit mobilizaci. Podstata t\u011bchto f\u00e1m nen\u00ed nov\u00e1 a Putin na n\u011b za\u010d\u00e1tkem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed <\/span>reagoval <\/span><\/a>slovy: \u201eV sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd by vy\u017eadoval mobilizaci. Jedn\u00e1 se o informa\u010dn\u00ed \u00fatok jm\u00e9nem nep\u0159\u00edtele v p\u0159edve\u010der voleb do St\u00e1tn\u00ed dumy ve snaze ovlivnit jejich v\u00fdsledky.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Ob\u011b \u010d\u00e1sti jeho prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed jsou pravdiv\u00e9, ale nelze vylou\u010dit, \u017ee se okolnosti mohou zm\u011bnit, v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je vhodn\u00e9 analyzovat sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ve kter\u00e9m by mohlo doj\u00edt k mobilizaci a jak by EU mohla reagovat. \u201e <\/span>Rusk\u00e1 \u00fadern\u00e1 kampa\u0148 na lokomotivy hroz\u00ed ochromen\u00edm ukrajinsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 logistiky <\/span><\/a>\u201c, pokud bude systematicky prov\u00e1d\u011bna od nyn\u011bj\u0161ka do nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed zimy a bude doprov\u00e1zena stejn\u011b systematick\u00fdmi \u00fadery na jej\u00ed \u010derpac\u00ed stanice, p\u0159\u00edstavy, elektr\u00e1rny a dal\u0161\u00ed infrastrukturu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud ru\u0161t\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed pl\u00e1nova\u010di uv\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee by to mohlo v\u00e9st k jejich dlouho o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu pr\u016flomu na front\u011b, pak by mohli Putinovi poradit, aby alespo\u0148 ud\u011blal to, co ud\u011blal p\u0159ed \u010dty\u0159mi lety, kdy\u017e vyhl\u00e1sil <\/span>\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou mobilizaci zku\u0161en\u00fdch z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edk\u016f <\/span><\/a>k vyu\u017eit\u00ed jak\u00e9hokoli takov\u00e9ho pr\u016flomu. C\u00edlem by bylo v t\u00e9to strategicky v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 chv\u00edli pou\u017e\u00edt v\u00edce vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly k donucen\u00ed Ukrajiny k vyhov\u011bn\u00ed v\u0161em rusk\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm, nebo alespo\u0148 co nejv\u00edce, k ukon\u010den\u00ed konfliktu <\/span>rusk\u00fdm <\/span><\/a>v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je rozumn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, ve kter\u00e9m by mohla b\u00fdt vyhl\u00e1\u0161ena alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e1 mobilizace, na jej\u00ed\u017e mo\u017enost se evropsk\u00e9 NATO (E-NATO) pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ji\u017e p\u0159edem p\u0159ipravuje, a to i v souvislosti s <\/span>ned\u00e1vn\u00fdm hysterick\u00fdm \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm paniky <\/span><\/a>ohledn\u011b hroz\u00edc\u00edho rusk\u00e9ho \u00fatoku na n\u011bkolik \u010dlen\u016f bloku. Vzhledem k rychle se m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed vojensko-strategick\u00e9 dynamice konfliktu, kterou vyvolala d\u0159\u00edve zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 systematick\u00e1 \u00fadern\u00e1 kampa\u0148 Ruska, lze tento narativ zp\u011btn\u011b interpretovat jako p\u0159edb\u011b\u017enou podm\u00ednku.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00da\u010delem je manipulovat oby\u010dejn\u00e9 lidi, aby vn\u00edmali jakoukoli \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou mobilizaci jako p\u0159\u00edpravu na ruskou invazi do pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a\/nebo Polska, o kterou Putin prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee nem\u00e1 z\u00e1jem, a ned\u00e1valo by pro n\u011bj smysl riskovat t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku ve snaze okupovat nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 obyvatelstvo. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b toto p\u0159edem stanoven\u00ed by mohlo b\u00fdt spojeno s <\/span>fale\u0161nou vlajkou (v Polsku?) <\/span><\/a>, aby se bu\u010f ospravedlnila <\/span>nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1 eskalace <\/span><\/a>ze strany E-NATO proti Rusku, nebo <\/span>aby se urychlila vojensko-politick\u00e1 centralizace EU <\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed liber\u00e1ln\u00ed elity E-NATO \u010del\u00ed sv\u00fdm konzervativn\u00edm opozi\u010dn\u00edm v\u00fdzv\u00e1m jako nikdy p\u0159edt\u00edm uprost\u0159ed ekonomick\u00e9ho poklesu zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho prudk\u00fdm r\u016fstem cen pohonn\u00fdch hmot v d\u016fsledku protirusk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed a naru\u0161en\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho trhu v d\u016fsledku t\u0159et\u00ed v\u00e1lky v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Maj\u00ed proto z\u00e1jem na maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm zastra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruskem, aby si alespo\u0148 shrom\u00e1\u017edily voli\u010de kolem sebe, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 d\u00e1le centralizovat EU a v nejextr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i dokonce nebezpe\u010dn\u011b eskalovat proti Rusku, pokud jim to nepom\u016f\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom to shrnuli, mobilizace by s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed byla vyhl\u00e1\u0161ena pouze za \u00fa\u010delem vyu\u017eit\u00ed hroz\u00edc\u00edho pr\u016flomu na front\u011b, ale o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee E-NATO bude jak\u00fdkoli takov\u00fd krok vyd\u00e1vat za hroz\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00fd \u00fatok, aby prosadila c\u00edle sv\u00e9 elity. Mohlo by dokonce doj\u00edt k \u00fatoku pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou, aby se tento narativ stal v\u011brohodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm. Ne\u017e v\u0161ak E-NATO pod touto z\u00e1minkou nebezpe\u010dn\u011b eskaluje proti Rusku, m\u011blo by si p\u0159ipomenout Lavrovova slova, \u017ee jak\u00e1koli v\u00e1lka mezi nimi \u201e <\/span>bude velmi kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 <\/span><\/a>\u201c, v nar\u00e1\u017ece na to, \u017ee Rusko v sebeobran\u011b za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na E-NATO jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mobilizace by s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed byla vyhl\u00e1\u0161ena pouze za \u00fa\u010delem vyu\u017eit\u00ed hroz\u00edc\u00edho pr\u016flomu na front\u011b,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":118223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1929,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118222"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118222"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118222\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/118223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}