{"id":118075,"date":"2026-10-10T06:05:57","date_gmt":"2026-10-10T04:05:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=118075"},"modified":"2026-10-10T06:23:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T04:23:53","slug":"michael-svatos-trump-v-noci-na-dnesek-nadelil-putinovi-naftovou-dohodou-7-miliard-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/10\/michael-svatos-trump-v-noci-na-dnesek-nadelil-putinovi-naftovou-dohodou-7-miliard-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Trump v noci na dne\u0161ek nad\u011blil Putinovi \u201cnaftovou\u201d dohodou 7 miliard USD!"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Trump v noci na dne\u0161ek nad\u011blil Putinovi \u201cnaftovou\u201d dohodou 7 miliard USD! Horm\u016fz p\u0159itom u\u017e jede na 98% p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho objemu! Pel\u00ed\u0161ky! Bude m\u00edr!<\/h3>\n

V\u010dera v noci americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump ozn\u00e1mil<\/a> velk\u00fd naftov\u00fd \u201cdeal\u201d s Vladim\u00edrem Putinem. A moskevsk\u00e1 burza za\u010dala okam\u017eit\u011b radost\u00ed sk\u00e1kat, a Zelenskyj a Bruselsk\u00fd Komisari\u00e1t \u2013 ihned smutn\u011b s\u00edpat. P\u0159ed 19 hodinami, kdy p\u00ed\u0161u tento text, jsem v reakci na posledn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy MAP dostal mail parafr\u00e1zuj\u00edc\u00ed tuto slavnou sc\u00e9nu z filmu Pel\u00ed\u0161ky.<\/a> Text mailu zn\u011bl, \u201cD\u00e1v\u00e1m bol\u0161evikovi dva m\u011bs\u00edce, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b t\u0159i.\u201d, a z\u0159ejm\u011b i Vy ch\u00e1pete, k\u00fdm byl bol\u0161evik v mailu my\u0161len. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 v\u00e1lka jednou skon\u010d\u00ed, a ta na Ukrajin\u011b by mohla skon\u010dit rychleji, ne\u017e ned\u00e1vno americk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marco Rubio vcelku pesimisticky p\u0159edpov\u00eddal. A to je dob\u0159e, proto\u017ee sv\u011bt by tak s ur\u010ditost\u00ed byl u\u0161et\u0159en jadern\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed, jak se pomalu schylovalo. A pod\u00edvejme se proto na Trump-Putin\u016fv \u201cnaftov\u00fd deal\u201d podrobn\u011bji, aby bylo jasn\u011bji \u2013 co j\u00edm ob\u011b strany asi sleduj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

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Trump-Putinova naftov\u00e1 dohoda, jak byla v\u010dera vyhl\u00e1\u0161ena. Jej\u00ed napln\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159inese Putinovi cca 7 miliard USD, podle sou\u010dasn\u00fdch \u201clond\u00fdnsk\u00fdch\u201d cen na okam\u017eit\u00e9 dod\u00e1n\u00ed. A p\u0159edstava, \u017ee v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b Bruselsk\u00e9ho komisari\u00e1tu a jeho nov\u00e9 britsk\u00e9 Burnhamovy klientsk\u00e9 l\u00f3\u017ee, budou pron\u00e1sledovat a zabavovat lod\u011b pluj\u00edc\u00ed na p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00e9ho prezidenta z Ruska do USA, je vskutku legra\u010dn\u00ed. Viz m\u016fj ned\u00e1vn\u00fd po\u0159ad u Petra H\u00e1jka<\/a> jak neslavn\u011b skon\u010dily v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1941 Hitlerovi \u201cCh\u0159est\u00fd\u0161i v Atlantiku\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dem ke v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed naftov\u00e9 dohod\u011b Trump-Putin je sou\u010dasn\u00fd provoz v pr\u016flivu Horm\u016fz. Ten u\u017e sice dos\u00e1hnul 98% sv\u00e9ho p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho objemu, a nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed Trump-Putinova m\u00edru na Ukrajin\u011b t\u00e9to skute\u010dnosti \u201cumn\u011b\u201d zneu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed, aby torp\u00e9dovali ve\u0161ker\u00e9 americk\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 \u201cukrajinsk\u00e9\u201d snahy, t\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161, \u017ee Trump vysok\u00e9 ceny rafinovan\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch paliv d\u00e1v\u00e1 do p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 souvislosti se Zelensk\u00e9ho \u00fatoky proti rusk\u00fdm rafineri\u00edm. Trump v\u0161ak m\u00e1 pravdu. Pokud objem ropy p\u0159epravovan\u00e9 nyn\u00ed p\u0159es Horm\u016fz u\u017e dos\u00e1hnul 98%. Pak objem rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f z ropy p\u0159epravovan\u00fdch p\u0159es Horm\u016fz dos\u00e1hnul pouze 50%, (Goldman Sachs v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u011b ud\u00e1v\u00e1 58%), a na sv\u011btov\u00e9m trhu tak denn\u011b st\u00e1le chyb\u00ed 3 miliony horm\u016fzsk\u00fdch barel\u016f benz\u00ednu, nafty a leteck\u00e9ho petroleje denn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 dod\u00e1vka tento nedostatek nafty na sv\u011btov\u00e9m trhu sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed v listopadu o 140 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, v prosinci o 280 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, a pokud Zelenskyj p\u0159estane \u00fato\u010dit na rusk\u00e9 rafinerie, a pokud Komisari\u00e1t a jeho Burnhamova l\u00f3\u017ee p\u0159estanou pron\u00e1sledovat rusk\u00e9 lod\u011b, Putin d\u00e1le dod\u00e1 840 000 dal\u0161\u00edch barel\u016f nafty denn\u011b, respektive t\u011bchto 840 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b je t\u0159eba je\u0161t\u011b d\u011blit po\u010dtem n\u011bkolika m\u00e1lo m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, po kter\u00e9 budou re\u00e1ln\u011b dod\u00e1v\u00e1ny, ale tento po\u010det m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f zat\u00edm nebyl v dohod\u011b jinak specifikov\u00e1n, ne\u017e jako \u201ckr\u00e1tk\u00fd \u010dasov\u00fd \u00fasek\u201d, (short period of time).<\/p>\n

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Provoz v Horm\u016fzu nabral v posledn\u00edch dnech obr\u00e1tky a dosahuje u\u017e 98% p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho objemu ropy, a 50% objemu nafty, benz\u00ednu a leteck\u00e9ho petroleje. Tento objem v\u0161ak je dosa\u017een s men\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem zna\u010dn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch lod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 velkou rychlost\u00ed sp\u011bchaj\u00ed, aby rychle za Horm\u016fzem nalo\u017eily a je\u0161t\u011b rychleji nalo\u017een\u00e9 zmizely v Indick\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu. A naprost\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina t\u011bchto lod\u00ed m\u00e1 vypnut\u00e9 transpond\u00e9ry sv\u00e9 polohy. Tyto lod\u011b ov\u0161em nakl\u00e1daj\u00ed i v Ir\u00e1nu. Rychlost s jakou tyto lod\u011b nakl\u00e1daj\u00ed a miz\u00ed se obecn\u011b vysv\u011btluje obavami jejich majitel\u016f, aby neuv\u00edzly v Horm\u016fzu, kdyby se zase uzav\u0159el. Situace je tedy nejist\u00e1. Respektive majitel\u00e9 extr\u00e9mn\u011b drah\u00fdch lod\u00ed, j\u00ed tak vn\u00edmaj\u00ed. Poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed transitu tankeru Horm\u016fzem se zv\u00fd\u0161ilo ze 150 a\u017e 225 tis\u00edc USD na 3 a\u017e 10 milion\u016f USD, podle velikosti a st\u00e1\u0159\u00ed lodi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Podle aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch anal\u00fdz je te\u010f na sv\u011btov\u00e9m trhu st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b nedostatek 3 miliony barel\u016f nafty, benz\u00ednu a leteck\u00e9ho petroleje denn\u011b, tedy pro laiky = denn\u00ed spot\u0159eba \u0160pan\u011blska.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed nastupuje na severn\u00ed polokouli zima, a p\u0159i jej\u00edm pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9m pr\u016fb\u011bhu se spot\u0159eba nafty zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed o dal\u0161\u00ed 2 miliony barel\u016f denn\u011b. Pokud v\u0161ak bude zima v\u00fdrazn\u011b chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, v USA a ve Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii se spot\u0159eba zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed 7kr\u00e1t, a v N\u011bmecku a ve Francii 6kr\u00e1t. Sv\u011bt m\u00e1 celkovou rafin\u00e9rskou kapacitu 103.6 milionu barel\u016f ropy denn\u011b, le\u010d po v\u00e1lce v Ir\u00e1nu, a po \u00faderech Zelensk\u00e9ho na Rusko, a n\u011bkolika m\u00e1lo hav\u00e1ri\u00edch a zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00edch, tato kapacita poklesla na 84 a\u017e 86 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. EU odeb\u00edrala p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou 40% objemu sv\u00e9 spot\u0159eby z Ruska, po sankc\u00edch Rusko p\u0159esm\u011brovalo tuto produkci nafty do Afriky a Asie, a EU za\u010dala nakupovat po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. A v n\u011bm nyn\u00ed nafta zoufale chyb\u00ed. Po vy\u0159azen\u00ed velk\u00fdch rafinersk\u00fdch kapacit ve st\u00e1tech okolo Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu v d\u016fsledku hlavn\u011b ir\u00e1nsk\u00fdch odvetn\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f a \u00fader\u016f Huti\u016f, Zelenskyj sv\u00fdmi letn\u00edmi nepromy\u0161len\u00fdmi \u00fatoky na rusk\u00e9 rafinerie m\u00e1lem vyvolal kolaps cel\u00e9ho z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed naftou, benz\u00ednem a leteck\u00fdm petrolejem na cel\u00e9 severn\u00ed polokouli.<\/p>\n

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Americk\u00e1 administrativa pracuje rychle, a tak u\u017e vydala toto na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed: (a) S v\u00fdjimkou p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f uveden\u00fdch v odstavci (b) t\u00e9to v\u0161eobecn\u00e9 licence jsou v\u0161echny transakce zak\u00e1zan\u00e9 na\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm o sankc\u00edch proti \u0161kodliv\u00fdm zahrani\u010dn\u00edm aktivit\u00e1m v Rusku, 31 CFR \u010d\u00e1st 587, nebo na\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm o sankc\u00edch souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s Ukrajinou\/Ruskem, 31 CFR \u010d\u00e1st 589, kter\u00e9 se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed prodeje, dod\u00e1vky, vykl\u00e1dky nebo dovozu, v\u010detn\u011b dovozu do Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, motorov\u00e9 nafty poch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z Rusk\u00e9 federace, povoleny do 7. dubna, 00:01 v\u00fdchodn\u00edho letn\u00edho \u010dasu. Odstavec (b) je \u010dist\u011b technick\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 na 7 miliard USD, kter\u00e9 Putin d\u00edky na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed inkasuje, nebude m\u00edt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vliv. (Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed zdroj \u2013 zde<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Putin v\u010dera \u0159ekl Trumpovi, \u017ee Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed na front\u011b, a v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed i ve v\u00e1lce hloubkov\u00fdch dron\u016f. Zelenskyj pr\u00fd nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou \u0161anci sv\u00fdmi teroristick\u00fdmi \u00fadery naru\u0161it ruskou ekonomiku.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 u\u017e te\u010f zna\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159ebytek rafinovan\u00e9 nafty.\u00a0 U\u017e p\u0159ed v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed dohodou vyv\u00e1\u017eelo v srpnu 88 000 barel\u016f nafty denn\u011b do St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie, a v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tento v\u00fdvoz dokonce zvedlo na 104 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b<\/a>. Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed USA dostanou v listopadu podle v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed dohody 500 000 tun rusk\u00e9 nafty, ani\u017e se z\u00e1\u0159iov\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky rusk\u00e9 nafty do St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie = 427 000 tun budou sni\u017eovat. Jak vidno, Zelensk\u00e9ho slavn\u00e9 \u00fadery proti rusk\u00fdm rafineri\u00edm byla jen jedna velk\u00e1 medi\u00e1ln\u00ed komedie pro z\u00e1padn\u00ed mainstream. P\u0159esn\u011b jak jsme v minulosti analyzovali \u2013 Zelenskyj nechal rad\u011bji drony podpalovat n\u00e1dr\u017ee na skladov\u00e1n\u00ed ropy u rusk\u00fdch rafineri\u00ed, aby m\u011bla z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia na z\u00e1b\u011brech kr\u00e1sn\u00e9 velk\u00e9 po\u017e\u00e1ry v Rusku, a nikoli rafinerie samotn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

USA jsou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm v\u00fdvozcem nafty, benz\u00ednu a leteck\u00e9ho petroleje. Produkuj\u00ed denn\u011b 5.1 milionu barel\u016f nafty a dal\u0161\u00edch destil\u00e1t\u016f, a 1.6 milionu barel\u016f z nich denn\u011b vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed hlavn\u011b do Evropy a Ji\u017en\u00ed Ameriky. Zd\u00e1 se tak nelogick\u00e9, pro\u010d USA tak n\u00e1hle pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed cca 120 tis\u00edc barel\u016f rusk\u00e9 nafty denn\u011b v listopadu 2026? Odmysl\u00edme-li si fakt, \u017ee jde o prvn\u00ed n\u00e1znak bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edho se m\u00edrov\u00e9ho ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b, z\u016fstane vnit\u0159n\u00ed nerovnov\u00e1ha v distribuci rafinovan\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f na \u00fazem\u00ed USA. A ten je \u0161okuj\u00edc\u00ed. V\u00fdchodn\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed USA m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed pouze 32% pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch p\u011btilet\u00fdch z\u00e1sob rafinovan\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f. A je p\u0159itom zcela z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na importu 120 000 barel\u016f rafinovan\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f denn\u011b. Proto\u017ee rafinerie na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed USA nemaj\u00ed dostate\u010dnou kapacitu.<\/p>\n

120 000 barel\u016f rusk\u00e9 nafty denn\u011b = p\u0159esn\u011b chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed kapacita 120 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed USA. A nav\u00edc ta cena!!!! A nav\u00edc, v d\u016fsledku El Ni\u0148o jsou probl\u00e9my s Panamsk\u00fdm pr\u016fplavem. V\u00fdsledek = rusk\u00e1 nafta doraz\u00ed na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed USA za 12 a\u017e 25 dn\u00ed, d\u0159\u00edv to nen\u00ed technicky provediteln\u00e9. Volby v USA se konaj\u00ed 3. listopadu a siln\u011b je v Republik\u00e1nsk\u00fd neprosp\u011bch ovliv\u0148uje cena nafty. Trump \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee cena nafty tak klesne \u201erekordn\u00edm tempem a rychle\u201c, a \u017ee pomoc farm\u00e1\u0159\u016fm, ran\u010der\u016fm a \u0159idi\u010d\u016fm kamion\u016f je jeho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed prioritou, a to jen n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f p\u0159ed volbami do poloviny volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed 3. listopadu.<\/p>\n

Vzhledem k cen\u011b nafty 6,28 dolaru za galon je politick\u00fd tlak skute\u010dn\u00fd. Farm\u00e1\u0159i, a dal\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 nafty v USA, tak maj\u00ed nad\u011bji, \u017ee ceny nafty v listopadu d\u00edky rusk\u00fdm dod\u00e1vk\u00e1m zna\u010dn\u011b klesnou. A jak zn\u00e1mo, voli\u010di odevzd\u00e1vaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 hlasy politik\u016fm hlavn\u011b podle m\u00edry sv\u00e9ho o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee napln\u00ed jejich voli\u010dsk\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. A Trump pr\u00e1v\u011b na tuto nad\u011bji voli\u010d\u016f, \u017ee zase bude l\u00edp, p\u0159esn\u011b m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed. A proto opat\u0159en\u00ed na dovoz rusk\u00e9 ropy trv\u00e1 do konce dubna 2027, a slibuje, \u017ee nafty se bude dov\u00e1\u017eet ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc v\u00edc a v\u00edc. Media stran\u00edc\u00ed Bruselsk\u00e9mu Komisari\u00e1tu v\u010dera ihned tvrdila<\/a>, \u017ee do voleb se cena nafty v USA nesn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. A op\u011bt tak podlehla klamu. Voli\u010d vol\u00ed podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, a Trump Putin\u016fv naftov\u00fd \u201cdeal\u201d mu zaru\u010duje sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed cen nafty v dlouhodob\u00e9m horizontu, a nez\u00e1visle na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 eskalaci v Horm\u016fzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu. A to je p\u0159esn\u011b, co americk\u00fd voli\u010d z\u0159ejm\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1. Jak to zm\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek voleb se dozv\u00edme za necel\u00e9 4 t\u00fddny.<\/p>\n

Dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdza byla pon\u011bkud detailn\u011bji odborn\u00e1. S reakcemi Bruselsk\u00e9ho Komisari\u00e1tu a Kyjevsk\u00e9 Soldatesky na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Trump-Putin\u016fv naftov\u00fd \u201cdeal\u201d V\u00e1s jist\u011b dopodrobna sezn\u00e1m\u00ed \u010desk\u00fd mainstream. A ostatn\u011b jsou 04:43 a \u010das pro psan\u00ed dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdzy mi t\u00edm vypr\u0161el. M\u011bjte se kr\u00e1sn\u011b.<\/p>\n

(Hlavn\u00ed zdroje dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdzy najdete zde \u2013 prvn\u00ed<\/a> a druh\u00fd<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

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Trump v noci na dne\u0161ek nad\u011blil Putinovi \u201cnaftovou\u201d dohodou 7 miliard USD! Horm\u016fz p\u0159itom u\u017e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":101518,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,924,102,310,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118075"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118075"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118075\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101518"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}