{"id":117818,"date":"2026-10-08T00:36:28","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T22:36:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=117818"},"modified":"2026-10-07T17:51:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T15:51:06","slug":"serge-savigny-diesel-novy-motor-geopolitiky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/08\/serge-savigny-diesel-novy-motor-geopolitiky\/","title":{"rendered":"Serge Savigny: Diesel, nov\u00fd motor geopolitiky"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u016fl stolet\u00ed sv\u011bt sledoval cenu barelu ropy. Skute\u010dn\u00e1 bitva roku 2026 se v\u0161ak to\u010d\u00ed kolem toho, co se z tohoto barelu stane po rafinaci.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nafta je palivem re\u00e1ln\u00e9, fyzick\u00e9 ekonomiky a letos se stala jedn\u00edm z nejp\u016fsobiv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f moci ve sv\u011btov\u00e9 politice.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edsla vypov\u00eddaj\u00ed jen \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu. Ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech dos\u00e1hla pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 cena nafty 22. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed rekordn\u00edho maxima 6,53 dolaru za galon a do 1. \u0159\u00edjna klesla zp\u011bt na zhruba 6,39 dolaru. Evropsk\u00e9 futures kontrakty na naftu dos\u00e1hly rekordn\u00edho maxima v polovin\u011b z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, od ledna se v\u00edce ne\u017e zdvojn\u00e1sobily, zat\u00edmco ceny v Asii z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed bl\u00edzko sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch maxim.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejv\u00fdmluvn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ukazatelem je v\u0161ak rozd\u00edl mezi cenou ropy a cenou rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f. Americk\u00fd crack spread nafty, tedy rozd\u00edl mezi cenou nafty a ropy, podle <\/span>agentury Bloomberg<\/span><\/em> 1. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ekro\u010dil rekordn\u00edch 106 dolar\u016f za barel .\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonom z Kansask\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed univerzity Gregg Ibendahl to vyj\u00e1d\u0159il <\/span>dokonale<\/span><\/a> : rostouc\u00ed ceny ropy se na n\u00e1r\u016fstu pod\u00edlej\u00ed asi 70 centy na galon, zbytek lze p\u0159ipsat prost\u00e9mu glob\u00e1ln\u00edmu nedostatku nafty. Sv\u011bt nejen\u017ee nem\u00e1 nedostatek ropy, ale tak\u00e9 nem\u00e1 kapacitu ji p\u0159em\u011bnit na to, co skute\u010dn\u011b pot\u0159ebuje.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Od \u00fazk\u00fdch m\u00edst v n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed doprav\u011b k \u00fazk\u00fdm m\u00edst\u016fm v ocel\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed byla energetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost prim\u00e1rn\u011b ot\u00e1zkou geografie. Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, Bab el-Mandeb, Istanbulsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a Malack\u00fd pr\u016fliv. Tyto trasy z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 a naru\u0161en\u00ed dopravy v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu od konce \u00fanora ovlivnilo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011btinu sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale v roce 2026 se objevila druh\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 zranitelnosti. Nov\u00e1 \u00fazk\u00e1 hrdla jsou nyn\u00ed vyrobena z oceli: rafinerie, a ty se staly ter\u010dem na dvou front\u00e1ch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V Basrsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u00fatoky do \u010dervence po\u0161kodily dev\u011bt rafineri\u00ed v cel\u00e9m regionu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se sn\u00ed\u017eil objem surovin, z nich\u017e ostatn\u00ed zem\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed naftu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V Rusku byly \u00fatoky ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f p\u0159\u00edmo nam\u00ed\u0159eny proti rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e9mu syst\u00e9mu. Dopad na export byl poci\u0165ov\u00e1n dlouho p\u0159ed zaveden\u00edm jak\u00e9hokoli ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho z\u00e1kazu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Logika Kyjeva je celkem jasn\u00e1. Ropa se sice st\u00e1le m\u016f\u017ee t\u011b\u017eit a prod\u00e1vat, ale pr\u00e1v\u011b v rafin\u00e9ri\u00edch se vyr\u00e1b\u00ed palivo pro dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomiku a p\u0159\u00edjmy z exportu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko up\u0159ednost\u0148uje sv\u016fj dom\u00e1c\u00ed trh<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pro Rusko je nafta ji\u017e dlouho z\u00e1kladem obchodn\u00ed diplomacie. Rusko dod\u00e1v\u00e1 zhruba desetinu sv\u011btov\u00e9 nafty a tradi\u010dn\u011b ji prod\u00e1v\u00e1 pod celosv\u011btov\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem, co\u017e z n\u011bj \u010din\u00ed p\u0159irozen\u00e9ho dodavatele pro cenov\u011b citliv\u00e9 dovozce od St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed po z\u00e1padn\u00ed Afriku. Letos v l\u00e9t\u011b se Kreml rozhodl up\u0159ednostnit dom\u00e1c\u00ed trh.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko v \u010dervenci zak\u00e1zalo v\u00fdvoz nafty v r\u00e1mci opat\u0159en\u00ed ke stabilizaci dom\u00e1c\u00edho trhu s palivy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed t\u0159i ze \u0161esti nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch rusk\u00fdch rafineri\u00ed nafty bu\u010f zcela ukon\u010dily provoz, nebo v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eily produkci po \u0161kod\u00e1ch zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch drony.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bylo by v\u0161ak chybou vn\u00edmat to jako definitivn\u00ed sta\u017een\u00ed Ruska z exportn\u00edch trh\u016f. Rusko trh neopou\u0161t\u00ed, d\u00e1v\u00e1 si pauzu. Ot\u00e1zkou je, co budou jeho kupci mezit\u00edm d\u011blat.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Turecko m\u011bn\u00ed nedostatek ve n\u00e1stroj vlivu<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b nenab\u00edz\u00ed na tuto ot\u00e1zku v\u00fdmluvn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odpov\u011b\u010f ne\u017e Turecko. Jeho z\u00e1vislost na rusk\u00fdch dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch byla hlubok\u00e1 a v dob\u011b m\u00edru z ekonomick\u00e9ho hlediska naprosto racion\u00e1ln\u00ed. Do roku 2025 Rusko dod\u00e1valo 85 % tureck\u00e9 nafty, tedy p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 281 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, uv\u00e1d\u00ed tureck\u00fd energetick\u00fd regul\u00e1tor. Turecko bylo tak\u00e9 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm pil\u00ed\u0159em rusk\u00e9ho exportu a v \u010dervnu spolu s Braz\u00edli\u00ed nakoupilo nejm\u00e9n\u011b polovinu rusk\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek nab\u00edzen\u00fdch na trhu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se dod\u00e1vky za\u010daly zmen\u0161ovat, Ankara rychle jednala, aby na\u0161la n\u00e1hrady za rusk\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky. Ture\u010dt\u00ed dovozci velmi rychle diverzifikovali sv\u00e9 zdroje.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nepohodln\u00e1 p\u00e1ka Ameriky<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se ocitly v centru nov\u00e9 mapy trhu s naftou a hraj\u00ed dvoj\u00ed roli: dodavatele posledn\u00ed instance a ob\u011bti nedostatku. Analytici o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee Braz\u00edlie bude nakupovat st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mno\u017estv\u00ed nafty z americk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Mexick\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, stejn\u011b jako to ud\u011blala b\u011bhem rusk\u00e9ho z\u00e1kazu v roce 2023. To d\u00e1v\u00e1 Washingtonu novou formu vlivu na dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento vliv v zahrani\u010d\u00ed se v\u0161ak projevuje i v tuzemsku. Na konci z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed klesly z\u00e1soby destil\u00e1t\u016f ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech na 105,2 milionu barel\u016f, co\u017e je asi o 14 % m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e pr\u016fm\u011br p\u0159edchoz\u00edch p\u011bti let.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rostouc\u00ed ceny tvrd\u011b zasahuj\u00ed farm\u00e1\u0159e a \u0159idi\u010de kamion\u016f a st\u00e1vaj\u00ed se politick\u00fdm t\u00e9matem pro Republik\u00e1nskou stranu v p\u0159edve\u010der voleb do poloviny volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed. To je paradox: \u010d\u00edm v\u00edce nafty Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed na podporu sv\u00fdch partner\u016f a pos\u00edlen\u00ed sv\u00e9ho pod\u00edlu na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu, t\u00edm dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed je pro venkovsk\u00e9 oblasti USA u \u010derpac\u00edch stanic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato logika ji\u017e za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 diktovat politiku Washingtonu. Trump potvrdil, \u017ee zva\u017euje z\u00e1kaz v\u00fdvozu nafty, a administrativa <\/span>po\u017eadovala<\/span><\/a> , aby evrop\u0161t\u00ed spojenci uvolnili \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1sob paliva, a varovala je p\u0159ed mo\u017en\u00fdmi omezen\u00edmi v\u00fdvozu ze Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa, Asie a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Evropa, kter\u00e1 po roce 2022 zak\u00e1zala rusk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 produkty, m\u00e1 jen m\u00e1lo alternativ. Po zaveden\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho z\u00e1kazu evropsk\u00e1 mar\u017ee u nafty v \u010dervenci poprv\u00e9 p\u0159ekro\u010dila 60 dolar\u016f za barel a za\u010d\u00e1tkem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dos\u00e1hl fyzick\u00fd crack spread nafty na platform\u011b Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antverpy nov\u00e9ho rekordu kolem 98 dolar\u016f za barel.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Indie se mezit\u00edm stala jedn\u00edm z v\u00edt\u011bz\u016f nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry rafinace. Jej\u00ed velk\u00e9, exportn\u011b orientovan\u00e9 rafinerie nyn\u00ed z\u00e1sobuj\u00ed Turecko a Evropu a samotn\u00e9 Rusko za\u010dalo letos v l\u00e9t\u011b dov\u00e1\u017eet indick\u00fd benz\u00edn. Tyto schopnosti d\u00e1vaj\u00ed zemi diplomatick\u00fd vliv, kter\u00fd by j\u00ed samotn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby ropy nikdy nemohly poskytnout.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna se naopak rozhodla chr\u00e1nit sv\u016fj dom\u00e1c\u00ed trh. 1. \u0159\u00edjna \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 rafinerie <\/span>pozastavily<\/span><\/a> v\u00fdvoz pohonn\u00fdch hmot, aby si zachovaly n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1soby. Pekingsk\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed d\u00e1le omezuje dod\u00e1vky na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu, kter\u00fd ji\u017e tak poci\u0165uje nedostatek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro nejchud\u0161\u00ed dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b je situace mnohem v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Prudce rostouc\u00ed ceny nafty rychle ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady na potraviny, proto\u017ee traktory, zavla\u017eovac\u00ed \u010derpadla a dod\u00e1vky jezd\u00ed na naftu. Kdy\u017e se nafta stane strategickou komoditou, velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu se ocitne v pozici kupuj\u00edc\u00edho, kter\u00fd je nucen akceptovat cenu v obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lce, kterou nem\u016f\u017ee vyhr\u00e1t.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u0159i z\u00e1v\u011bry jsou nevyhnuteln\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zaprv\u00e9, rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e1 kapacita je nyn\u00ed sama o sob\u011b strategick\u00fdm aktivem, stejn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm jako ropa v podzem\u00ed, ale mnohem zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u016f\u010di \u00fatoku. Zem\u011b s flexibiln\u00ed, exportn\u011b orientovanou rafin\u00e9rskou kapacitou, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Indie a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, maj\u00ed v\u00fdhodu, kterou producenti, jejich\u017e infrastruktura je napadena, v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nemohou vyu\u017e\u00edt.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, z\u00e1kazy v\u00fdvozu se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1strojem krizov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Rusko je ji\u017e vyu\u017eilo k ochran\u011b sv\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho trhu a zem\u011b pod tlakem sv\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f by mohly n\u00e1sledovat jeho p\u0159\u00edklad. To zpochyb\u0148uje jeden ze z\u00e1kladn\u00edch p\u0159edpoklad\u016f glob\u00e1ln\u00edho obchodu s energi\u00ed: \u017ee kupuj\u00edc\u00ed ochoten zaplatit v\u017edy najde prodejce.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u0159et\u00ed, nedostatek po p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nezmiz\u00ed. Americk\u00fd \u00da\u0159ad pro energetick\u00e9 informace (EIA) p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee z\u00e1soby destil\u00e1t\u016f v USA z\u016fstanou pod p\u011btilet\u00fdm minimem do konce roku 2026 a po v\u011bt\u0161inu roku 2027. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 varuj\u00ed, \u017ee i v nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by n\u00e1vrat k p\u0159edchoz\u00edm cenov\u00fdm \u00farovn\u00edm mohl trvat dva roky. Obnova po\u0161kozen\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed vy\u017eaduje \u010das.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Po v\u011bt\u0161inu posledn\u00edho desetilet\u00ed se debata o energii a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed moci zam\u011b\u0159ovala na energetickou transformaci, lithium, sol\u00e1rn\u00ed panely a elektromobily. Tato transformace je skute\u010dn\u00e1. Rok 2026 v\u0161ak p\u0159inesl zp\u011bt star\u0161\u00ed pravdu. Arm\u00e1da, zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce se st\u00e1le spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na naftu a kdokoli ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 rafinaci, ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 n\u011bco mnohem bezprost\u0159edn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho ne\u017e budoucnost \u2013 ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Serge Savigny<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u016fl stolet\u00ed sv\u011bt sledoval cenu barelu ropy. Skute\u010dn\u00e1 bitva roku 2026 se v\u0161ak to\u010d\u00ed kolem…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[285,122,310,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117818"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117818"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117818\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117818"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117818"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117818"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}