{"id":117779,"date":"2026-10-08T00:20:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T22:20:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=117779"},"modified":"2026-10-07T12:17:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T10:17:14","slug":"sira-a-mocovina-jejich-role-v-globalni-ekonomice-a-kdo-nejvice-trpi-narusenim-v-perskem-zalivu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/08\/sira-a-mocovina-jejich-role-v-globalni-ekonomice-a-kdo-nejvice-trpi-narusenim-v-perskem-zalivu\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00edra a mo\u010dovina: Jejich role v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomice a kdo nejv\u00edce trp\u00ed naru\u0161en\u00edm v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00edm Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu v\u011bt\u0161ina politik\u016f obecn\u011b nech\u00e1pe. Ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 a politick\u00e1 diskuse o uzav\u0159en\u00ed se zam\u011b\u0159ila na ropu: po\u010det tanker\u016f, ceny ropy Brent a strategick\u00e9 rezervy ropy. Toto zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed je pochopiteln\u00e9, ale p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed velkou \u010d\u00e1st \u0161kod. Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv je tak\u00e9 dominantn\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm dodavatelem zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu, mo\u010doviny, s\u00edry a h\u00e9lia. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 z t\u011bchto komodit poh\u00e1n\u00ed jinou \u010d\u00e1st glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky \u2013 elekt\u0159inu a technick\u00e9 plyny, v\u00fdrobu potravin, fosf\u00e1tov\u00e1 hnojiva a rafinaci kov\u016f, stejn\u011b jako polovodi\u010de a l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00e9 zobrazov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 a \u017e\u00e1dnou z nich nelze nahradit vyu\u017eit\u00edm nouzov\u00fdch z\u00e1sob, jak je to mo\u017en\u00e9 u ropy. Naru\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto tok\u016f dod\u00e1vek se dostalo jen zlomku pozornosti v\u011bnovan\u00e9 rop\u011b, i kdy\u017e pro n\u011bkolik zem\u00ed z\u00e1visl\u00fdch na dovozu p\u0159edstavuje z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0161ok.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek se zam\u011b\u0159uje na dv\u011b z t\u011bchto opom\u00edjen\u00fdch surovin: s\u00edru a mo\u010dovinu. Vysv\u011btluje jejich v\u00fdznam pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku, ukazuje, kolik produkuj\u00ed st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, a identifikuje zem\u011b nejv\u00edce posti\u017een\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00edm dod\u00e1vek. LNG je do anal\u00fdzy zahrnut pouze tam, kde je relevantn\u00ed pro v\u00fdrobu hnojiv; h\u00e9lium je mimo r\u00e1mec tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u010dovina a s\u00edra jsou n\u00edzkohodnotn\u00e9 sypk\u00e9 komodity, kter\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1kladem dvou nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f: potravin a kov\u016f. Mo\u010dovina je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm dus\u00edkat\u00fdm hnojivem na sv\u011bt\u011b. S\u00edra, zpracov\u00e1van\u00e1 na kyselinu s\u00edrovou, je z\u00e1kladn\u00ed surovinou pro fosf\u00e1tov\u00e1 hnojiva a pro lou\u017een\u00ed m\u011bdi, niklu a kobaltu. Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm exportn\u00edm zdrojem obou komodit a faktick\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu od 28. \u00fanora 2026 odstranilo v\u011bt\u0161inu t\u011bchto dod\u00e1vek z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160kody nejsou rozlo\u017eeny rovnom\u011brn\u011b. Nejv\u00edce posti\u017een\u00e9 zem\u011b sd\u00edlej\u00ed t\u0159i spole\u010dn\u00e9 charakteristiky: silnou z\u00e1vislost na dovozu z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, m\u00e1lo nebo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed alternativy a n\u00edzk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto charakteristik jsou Indie, Banglad\u00e9\u0161, P\u00e1kist\u00e1n, Sr\u00ed Lanka a Nep\u00e1l v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii zasa\u017eeny nejv\u00edce; Braz\u00edlie a Austr\u00e1lie pat\u0159\u00ed mezi hlavn\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 v\u00fdvozce; Indon\u00e9sie, Demokratick\u00e1 republika Kongo, Zambie a Chile v oblasti s\u00edry a kov\u016f; Maroko a \u010c\u00edna jako producenti fosf\u00e1t\u016f; a skupina n\u00edzkop\u0159\u00edjmov\u00fdch v\u00fdchodoafrick\u00fdch a jihoafrick\u00fdch dovozn\u00edch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou podle anal\u00fdzy WTO nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ze v\u0161ech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ceny mo\u010doviny se z dubnov\u00e9ho prudk\u00e9ho n\u00e1r\u016fstu z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zotavily d\u00edky \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm exportn\u00edm kv\u00f3t\u00e1m a slab\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vce. U s\u00edry to neplat\u00ed, proto\u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o vedlej\u0161\u00ed produkt, pro kter\u00fd neexistuje snadno dostupn\u00e1 n\u00e1hrada, a proto\u017ee Rusko a \u010c\u00edna sou\u010dasn\u011b omezily sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdvoz. \u0160ok ze s\u00edry je proto z obou typ\u016f trvalej\u0161\u00ed a m\u00e9n\u011b vn\u00edman\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro\u010d je mo\u010dovina d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1<\/span><\/h2>\n

Mo\u010dovina s obsahem dus\u00edku 46 % je nejobchodovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edm dus\u00edkat\u00fdm hnojivem a nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, jak dod\u00e1vat dus\u00edk obilovin\u00e1m, jako je r\u00fd\u017ee, p\u0161enice a kuku\u0159ice. Vyr\u00e1b\u00ed se p\u0159em\u011bnou zemn\u00edho plynu na amoniak a n\u00e1slednou reakc\u00ed amoniaku s oxidem uhli\u010dit\u00fdm. Plyn tvo\u0159\u00ed zhruba t\u0159i \u010dtvrtiny nebo v\u00edce p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f, a proto se toto odv\u011btv\u00ed soust\u0159edilo tam, kde je plyn nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: v oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, Rusku, severn\u00ed Africe a \u2013 pro dom\u00e1c\u00ed spot\u0159ebu \u2013 v \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bez dus\u00edku se nelze na jednu sez\u00f3nu obej\u00edt, ani\u017e by se sn\u00ed\u017eily v\u00fdnosy, a proto je popt\u00e1vka v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu neelastick\u00e1. Pokud se mo\u010dovina stane nedostupnou, zem\u011bd\u011blci v chud\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch j\u00ed aplikuj\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b a v\u00fdnosy n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed sklizn\u011b klesaj\u00ed; dopady na ceny potravin jsou proto zpo\u017ed\u011bny. Mimo zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed se mo\u010dovina pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v kapalin\u00e1ch do v\u00fdfukov\u00fdch plyn\u016f pro n\u00e1kladn\u00ed automobily, v mo\u010dovinoformaldehydov\u00fdch prysky\u0159ic\u00edch pro d\u0159ev\u011bn\u00e9 desky a v krmivech pro zv\u00ed\u0159ata.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1ha golfov\u00e9ho h\u0159i\u0161t\u011b v obchodu s mo\u010dovinou<\/span><\/h2>\n

Odhady pod\u00edlu Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu se li\u0161\u00ed v z\u00e1vislosti na pou\u017eit\u00e9 definici \u2013 produkce versus export, Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod versus p\u0159eprava z\u00e1visl\u00e1 v\u00fdhradn\u011b na Hormuzsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed obchod versus celkov\u00fd obchod \u2013 ale v\u0161echny nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee tento region je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm jednotliv\u00fdm zdrojem dod\u00e1vek na sv\u011bt\u011b:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Spole\u010dnost Argus odhaduje v\u00fdvoz mo\u010doviny z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 milion\u016f tun ro\u010dn\u011b, co\u017e je asi 35 % n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho obchodu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u011bco v\u00edce ne\u017e 17 milion\u016f tun ro\u010dn\u011b se bu\u010f nakl\u00e1d\u00e1 v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, nebo poch\u00e1z\u00ed z \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • RaboResearch odhaduje, \u017ee Gibraltarsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem obvykle proch\u00e1z\u00ed asi 30 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 p\u0159epravy mo\u010doviny; NDSU uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee pod\u00edl Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu na v\u00fdvozu mo\u010doviny po mo\u0159i \u010din\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 43 %; sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 od den\u00edku Farmdoc daily p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 asi 40 % celosv\u011btov\u011b obchodovan\u00e9 mo\u010doviny.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • IFA odhaduje, \u017ee Hormus ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159eprav\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 12 milion\u016f tun mo\u010doviny.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Pro\u010d je s\u00edra d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1<\/span><\/h2>\n

    S\u00edra je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u00fdhradn\u011b kv\u016fli kyselin\u011b s\u00edrov\u00e9, celosv\u011btov\u011b nejv\u00edce vyr\u00e1b\u011bn\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 chemik\u00e1lii. Jej\u00edm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm jednotliv\u00fdm vyu\u017eit\u00edm je t\u011b\u017eba fosf\u00e1tov\u00e9 horniny pro v\u00fdrobu kyseliny fosfore\u010dn\u00e9 a z n\u00ed hnojiv DAP, MAP a TSP. Druh\u00fdm strategick\u00fdm vyu\u017eit\u00edm je hydrometalurgie: lou\u017een\u00ed m\u011bd\u011bn\u00fdch rud za m\u00edch\u00e1n\u00ed a skladov\u00e1n\u00ed (SX-EW) a lou\u017een\u00ed niklov\u00fdch a kobaltov\u00fdch laterit\u016f za vysok\u00e9ho tlaku (HPAL), kter\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed p\u00e1te\u0159 indon\u00e9sk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu kov\u016f pro baterie. Kyselina s\u00edrov\u00e1 se tak\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159i rafinaci ropy, pro v\u00fdrobu pigment\u016f z oxidu titani\u010dit\u00e9ho, visk\u00f3zy, pap\u00edru a \u00fapravy vody.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Dv\u011b charakteristiky zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed, \u017ee sirn\u00e9 \u0161oky jsou neobvykle z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9. Zaprv\u00e9, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161ker\u00e1 element\u00e1rn\u00ed s\u00edra se z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 jako vedlej\u0161\u00ed produkt p\u0159i odstra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed sirovod\u00edku z kysel\u00e9ho plynu a ropy, tak\u017ee \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd producent nem\u016f\u017ee jednodu\u0161e zv\u00fd\u0161it produkci v reakci na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ceny. Zadruh\u00e9, spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed zpracov\u00e1vaj\u00ed kovy, \u010dasto nemohou pracovat se sn\u00ed\u017eenou kapacitou: Kpler poukazuje na to, \u017ee z\u00e1vody HPAL jsou v podstat\u011b bu\u010f v provozu, nebo mimo provoz.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Rozsah z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee pro kovopr\u016fmysl<\/span><\/h2>\n
      \n
    • Technologie SX-EW p\u0159edstavuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 15 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce m\u011bd\u011bn\u00fdch katod a je soust\u0159ed\u011bna v Demokratick\u00e9 republice Kongo, Chile a Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech; spot\u0159eba kyseliny se pohybuje od p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3 tun do v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 tun na tunu m\u011bdi (Kpler) v z\u00e1vislosti na obsahu rudy.<\/span><\/li>\n
    • Nikl HPAL vy\u017eaduje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 10 tun s\u00edry na tunu niklu, tak\u017ee jak\u00e9koli zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed ceny o 100 dolar\u016f za tunu s\u00edry zvy\u0161uje cenu niklu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 1 000 dolar\u016f za tunu (Red Door Research prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm S&P Global).<\/span><\/li>\n
    • Podle odhadu pr\u016fmyslu by se bez kyseliny s\u00edrov\u00e9 zastavilo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 30 % zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed niklu, 50 % zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bdi a 70 % zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed kobaltu (SunSirs). Tato \u010d\u00edsla by m\u011bla b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1na za orienta\u010dn\u00ed.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      V\u00e1ha Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu v obchodu se s\u00edrou<\/span><\/h2>\n

      Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod produkuje asi \u010dtvrtinu sv\u011btov\u00e9 s\u00edry, ale pod\u00edl\u00ed se zhruba 45 % na n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm obchodu (SMM); IFA odhaduje jeho pod\u00edl na 49 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s s\u00edrou, co\u017e je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 15 milion\u016f tun ro\u010dn\u011b p\u0159epraven\u00fdch p\u0159es Hormuz; S&P Global uv\u00e1d\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 20 milion\u016f tun ro\u010dn\u011b, co\u017e je polovina obchodovan\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vaj\u00ed jen velmi m\u00e1lo s\u00edry, kterou samy produkuj\u00ed, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161ker\u00e1 se vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

      P\u0159ehled produkce golfu<\/span><\/h2>\n

      S\u00edra<\/span><\/h3>\n

      USGS MCS 2026, v\u0161echny formy, tis\u00edce tun<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      zem\u011b<\/span><\/th>\n2024<\/span><\/th>\n2025 (odhad)<\/span><\/th>\nPod\u00edl na sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkci v roce 2025<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
      Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie<\/span><\/td>\n7 200<\/span><\/td>\n7 200<\/span><\/td>\n8,6 %<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty<\/span><\/td>\n6 300<\/span><\/td>\n6 300<\/span><\/td>\n7,5 %<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Katar<\/span><\/td>\n3 000<\/span><\/td>\n3 100<\/span><\/td>\n3,7 %<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      \u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/td>\n2 000<\/span><\/td>\n2 100<\/span><\/td>\n2,5 %<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Kuvajt<\/span><\/td>\n1 300<\/span><\/td>\n1 300<\/span><\/td>\n1,5 %<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Ir\u00e1k, Bahrajn, Om\u00e1n<\/span><\/td>\nnezobrazuje se samostatn\u011b<\/span><\/td>\n\u2013<\/span><\/td>\nmal\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Sv\u011bt jako celek<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n83 900<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n84 000<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n100 %<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

      Pom\u011bry byly vypo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1ny na z\u00e1klad\u011b \u00fadaj\u016f USGS. Ir\u00e1k, Bahrajn a Om\u00e1n USGS neuv\u00e1d\u00ed samostatn\u011b; jejich produkce je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mal\u00e1 \u2013 Om\u00e1n n\u011bkolik set tis\u00edc tun, Bahrajn a Ir\u00e1k m\u00e9n\u011b \u2013 ale jedn\u00e1 se o odhady, nikoli o potvrzen\u00e9 \u00fadaje.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Mo\u010dovina<\/span><\/h3>\n

      Kapacita nebo produkce, miliony tun ro\u010dn\u011b<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      zem\u011b<\/span><\/th>\nKl\u00ed\u010dov\u00ed producenti<\/span><\/th>\nmilion\u016f tun\/rok<\/span><\/th>\nz\u00e1klad<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
      \u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/td>\nPardis, Shiraz, Kermanshah, Khorasan, Razi a dal\u0161\u00ed<\/span><\/td>\n~9 (\u22485 exportov\u00e1no)<\/span><\/td>\nArgus<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Katar<\/span><\/td>\nQAFCO, Mesaieed<\/span><\/td>\n~6<\/span><\/td>\nKatarEnergetika<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie<\/span><\/td>\nSABIC Agri-Nutrients, Jubail<\/span><\/td>\n4,8 (SABIC)<\/span><\/td>\nCRU (Common Rule)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Om\u00e1n<\/span><\/td>\nOmifco (Sur); SIUCI (Sohar)<\/span><\/td>\n2,07 Produkce spole\u010dnosti Omifco v roce 2025 plus SIUCI<\/span><\/td>\nArgus<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty<\/span><\/td>\nFertiglobe Fertil, Ruwais<\/span><\/td>\n~2<\/span><\/td>\nArgus (srovnateln\u00fd s Omifcem)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Bahrajn<\/span><\/td>\nGPIC<\/span><\/td>\n~0,7<\/span><\/td>\nodhad<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Kuvajt<\/span><\/td>\nUkon\u010den\u00ed v\u00fdroby mo\u010doviny PIC (kolem roku 2017)<\/span><\/td>\n~0<\/span><\/td>\nodhad<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Ir\u00e1k<\/span><\/td>\nSt\u00e1tn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, nepravideln\u00fd provoz<\/span><\/td>\nokrajov\u00fd<\/span><\/td>\nodhad<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

      N\u011bkter\u00e9 komer\u010dn\u00ed datab\u00e1ze uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed produkci mo\u010doviny v Bahrajnu p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 6 milion\u016f tun a v \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 11 milion\u016f tun; ob\u011b \u010d\u00edsla p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00ed zn\u00e1m\u00e9 kapacity z\u00e1vod\u016f a nem\u011bla by b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1na za spolehliv\u00e1. Dva om\u00e1nsk\u00e9 z\u00e1vody se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed za Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a pokra\u010duj\u00ed v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Naru\u0161en\u00ed v roce 2026 a zesiluj\u00edc\u00ed se \u0161oky<\/span><\/h2>\n

      V\u00e1lka mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala 28. \u00fanora 2026, zastavila p\u0159epravu komer\u010dn\u00edho sypk\u00e9ho n\u00e1kladu p\u0159es Hormuz. Situaci je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161ilo n\u011bkolik dal\u0161\u00edch \u0161ok\u016f:<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      • Fyzick\u00e9 \u0161kody.<\/span><\/strong> Spole\u010dnost QatarEnergy zastavila v b\u0159eznu v\u00fdrobu po \u00fatoc\u00edch na sv\u00e9 z\u00e1vody v Ras Laffanu a Mesaieedu; spole\u010dnost QAFCO s\u00eddl\u00ed v Mesaieedu. SMM o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee po\u0161kozen\u00e1 plyn\u00e1rensk\u00e1 a rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v Kataru a Spojen\u00fdch arabsk\u00fdch emir\u00e1tech udr\u017e\u00ed ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontu v\u00fdvoz pod p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farovn\u00ed, co\u017e p\u0159\u00edmo omez\u00ed produkci s\u00edry.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • P\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek plynu do dom\u00e1c\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00edch zem\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong> P\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek katarsk\u00e9ho LNG donutilo uzav\u0159en\u00ed z\u00e1vod\u016f na v\u00fdrobu mo\u010doviny v ji\u017en\u00ed Asii, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se probl\u00e9m s dovozem prom\u011bnil v probl\u00e9m s dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkc\u00ed. Agentura Reuters informovala, \u017ee Banglad\u00e9\u0161 uzav\u0159el \u010dty\u0159i z p\u011bti z\u00e1vod\u016f na v\u00fdrobu mo\u010doviny.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd z\u00e1kaz v\u00fdvozu kyseliny s\u00edrov\u00e9.<\/span><\/strong> Dne 10. dubna \u010c\u00edna nahradila svou v\u00fdvozn\u00ed kv\u00f3tu na kyselinu \u00fapln\u00fdm z\u00e1kazem v\u00fdvozu do srpna; hlavn\u00edmi odb\u011brateli byly Chile, Indon\u00e9sie a Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie (Kpler).<\/span><\/li>\n
      • Rusk\u00fd z\u00e1kaz v\u00fdvozu s\u00edry<\/span><\/strong> byl 25. \u010dervna prodlou\u017een do 31. prosince 2026, \u010d\u00edm\u017e byl z trhu fakticky odstran\u011bn druh\u00fd v\u00fdznamn\u00fd flexibiln\u00ed dodavatel (SMM).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        M\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky<\/span><\/h2>\n
          \n
        • Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed centrum zjistilo, \u017ee v\u00fdvoz mo\u010doviny z ekonomik z\u00e1visl\u00fdch na Hormuzsk\u00e9m regionu klesl v dubnu 2026 o 83 % ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s dubnem 2025 a \u017ee alternativn\u00ed dodavatel\u00e9 nedostatek mo\u010doviny a s\u00edry nenahradili.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Spole\u010dnost RaboResearch odhadla, \u017ee v d\u016fsledku uzav\u0159en\u00ed trhu ztratilo ka\u017ed\u00fd t\u00fdden p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2 miliony tun hnojiv, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u00e1klady na hnojiva pro zem\u011bd\u011blce se od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky zv\u00fd\u0161ily o 30\u201340 %.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • Zpr\u00e1va WTO o doprav\u011b do Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed (Hormus Tracker) uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee dod\u00e1vky hnojiv p\u0159es \u00fa\u017einu v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed z\u016fstaly t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nulov\u00e9, p\u0159esto\u017ee ceny mo\u010doviny v d\u016fsledku uvoln\u011bn\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch v\u00fdvozn\u00edch kv\u00f3t klesly zp\u011bt na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou \u00farove\u0148 kolem 386 dolar\u016f za tunu.<\/span><\/li>\n
        • S\u00edra z\u016fstala drah\u00e1: ADNOC zv\u00fd\u0161ila svou ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed prodejn\u00ed cenu za \u010dervenec na 1 000 dolar\u016f za tunu FOB a dodac\u00ed ceny v Indon\u00e9sii p\u0159ekro\u010dily 1 000 dolar\u016f za tunu (SMM; CRU). Dovoz s\u00edry do \u010c\u00edny byl v kv\u011btnu o 66 % ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm roce.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          Nejv\u00edce posti\u017een\u00e9 zem\u011b<\/span><\/h2>\n

          N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed klasifikace zohled\u0148uje t\u0159i faktory: pod\u00edl dod\u00e1vek z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, mo\u017enosti substituce \u2013 dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce, alternativn\u00ed dodavatel\u00e9, z\u00e1soby \u2013 a ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky a d\u016fsledky pro potravinovou bezpe\u010dnost. Zem\u011b jsou seskupeny podle toho, jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem byly \u0161okem zasa\u017eeny.<\/span><\/p>\n

          \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
          zem\u011b<\/span><\/th>\nkan\u00e1l<\/span><\/th>\nB\u0159emeno<\/span><\/th>\nZ\u00e1va\u017enost<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
          Indie<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nMo\u010dovina, amoniak, s\u00edra, LNG<\/span><\/td>\nP\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b dv\u011b t\u0159etiny dovozu dus\u00edkat\u00fdch hnojiv poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu (WTO); 81 % dod\u00e1vek amoniaku je v\u00e1z\u00e1no na Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv (farmdoc); ~54 % ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho dovozu hnojiv v roce 2024 (NDSU). Nedostatek LNG d\u00e1le omezuje dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkci mo\u010doviny.<\/span><\/td>\nVelmi vysok\u00e1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Banglad\u00e9\u0161<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nLNG, mo\u010dovina<\/span><\/td>\n\u010cty\u0159i z p\u011bti z\u00e1vod\u016f na v\u00fdrobu mo\u010doviny byly uzav\u0159eny kv\u016fli nedostatku plynu; z\u00e1soby byly omezen\u00e9 (Reuters).<\/span><\/td>\nVelmi vysok\u00e1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          P\u00e1kist\u00e1n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nLNG, mo\u010dovina<\/span><\/td>\nTov\u00e1rny na hnojiva poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e1 plynem byly omezeny; agentury Reuters a Rabobank popsaly tyto z\u00e1vody jako v\u00e1\u017en\u011b posti\u017een\u00e9 s n\u00edzk\u00fdmi z\u00e1sobami.<\/span><\/td>\nVysok\u00fd<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Sr\u00ed Lanka, Nep\u00e1l<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nmo\u010dovina<\/span><\/td>\nWTO je za\u0159adila mezi nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed dovozce; mal\u00e9, zcela z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na dovozu trhy s fisk\u00e1ln\u00edmi omezen\u00edmi.<\/span><\/td>\nVysok\u00fd<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Braz\u00edlie<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nMo\u010dovina, fosf\u00e1t<\/span><\/td>\nMo\u010dovina je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u00fdhradn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dovozu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ~40 % poch\u00e1z\u00ed z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu; marock\u00fd fosf\u00e1t nav\u00edc nen\u00ed jako n\u00e1hradn\u00ed zdroj mo\u017en\u00fd, proto\u017ee Maroko m\u00e1 nedostatek s\u00edry (NDSU; Reuters).<\/span><\/td>\nVelmi vysok\u00e1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Austr\u00e1lie<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nmo\u010dovina<\/span><\/td>\n68\u201372 % mo\u010doviny poch\u00e1z\u00ed z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, co\u017e je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl mezi hlavn\u00edmi producenty; byl hl\u00e1\u0161en jej\u00ed lok\u00e1ln\u00ed nedostatek (NDSU; farmdoc; Reuters).<\/span><\/td>\nVysok\u00fd<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Thajsko<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nmo\u010dovina<\/span><\/td>\nT\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 polovina dovozu dus\u00edkat\u00fdch hnojiv poch\u00e1z\u00ed ze zem\u00ed Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu (WTO).<\/span><\/td>\nSt\u0159edn\u00ed a\u017e vysok\u00e1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Indon\u00e9sie<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nS\u00edra (nikl, fosf\u00e1t)<\/span><\/td>\nDovoz s\u00edry v roce 2025: 5\u20135,3 milionu tun, z toho ~75 % poch\u00e1zelo z Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu; v\u00fdrobci niklu HPAL se posunuli z doln\u00edho na horn\u00ed konec cenov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky; dovoz s\u00edry v 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed klesl o 30 %; zva\u017euje se sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed produkce (S&P Global; CRU).<\/span><\/td>\nVelmi vysok\u00e1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          DR Kongo a Zambie<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nS\u00edra (m\u011b\u010f, kobalt)<\/span><\/td>\nAfrick\u00fd m\u011bd\u011bn\u00fd p\u00e1s z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 asi 90 % sv\u00e9 s\u00edry z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu (CRU); Demokratick\u00e1 republika Kongo dovezla v roce 2025 1,3\u20131,4 milionu tun. Zambie zavedla licen\u010dn\u00ed po\u017eadavky na v\u00fdvoz kyselin 27. b\u0159ezna.<\/span><\/td>\nVysok\u00fd<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Chile<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nKyselina s\u00edrov\u00e1 (m\u011b\u010f)<\/span><\/td>\nRo\u010dn\u011b spot\u0159ebuje p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 9 milion\u016f tun kyseliny, z \u010deho\u017e se dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed 4 miliony tun; \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd z\u00e1kaz v\u00fdvozu vedl ke ztr\u00e1t\u011b p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,5 milionu tun ro\u010dn\u011b (Trafigura via S&P Global). Zdroj z oboru uv\u00e1d\u00ed 6% pokles produkce m\u011bdi v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku (nepotvrzeno).<\/span><\/td>\nVysok\u00fd<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Maroko<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nS\u00edra (fosf\u00e1t)<\/span><\/td>\nOCP, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd v\u00fdvozce fosf\u00e1t\u016f, se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na dov\u00e1\u017eenou s\u00edru; IFA a NDSU uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec mezi nejv\u00edce posti\u017een\u00fdmi.<\/span><\/td>\nVysok\u00fd<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          \u010c\u00edna<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nS\u00edra (fosf\u00e1t)<\/span><\/td>\nV\u00fdznamn\u00fd dovozce s\u00edry pro fosf\u00e1t reagoval z\u00e1kazem v\u00fdvozu kyseliny, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e p\u0159esunula na Chile a Indon\u00e9sii.<\/span><\/td>\nSt\u0159edn\u00ed<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          V\u00fdchodn\u00ed a Ji\u017en\u00ed Afrika<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nMo\u010dovina, fosf\u00e1t<\/span><\/td>\nKe\u0148a, Malawi, Mosambik, Rwanda, Jihoafrick\u00e1 republika, Tanzanie, Uganda, Zimbabwe (WTO) a Som\u00e1lsko (Reuters): n\u00edzk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, slab\u00e9 m\u011bny, sedm nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed pat\u0159\u00ed mezi nejm\u00e9n\u011b rozvinut\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/span><\/td>\nVysok\u00e1 (bezpe\u010dnost potravin)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
          Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nMo\u010dovina, fosf\u00e1t<\/span><\/td>\nP\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b dv\u011b t\u0159etiny dod\u00e1vek mo\u010doviny a DAP\/MAP poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce; zbytek je \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n z oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Cenov\u00e9 riziko je re\u00e1ln\u00e9, ale dod\u00e1vky jsou zm\u00edrn\u011bny (farmdoc).<\/span><\/td>\nSt\u0159edn\u00ed<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

          Pozn\u00e1mky k nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u016fm<\/span><\/h2>\n

          V absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00edslech je Indie nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm pora\u017een\u00fdm.<\/span><\/strong> Zem\u011b je zasa\u017eena t\u0159emi zp\u016fsoby sou\u010dasn\u011b: dovozem mo\u010doviny a amoniaku, dovozem s\u00edry pro sv\u00e9 fosf\u00e1tov\u00e9 z\u00e1vody a dovozem zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG) pro sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1vody na v\u00fdrobu mo\u010doviny. Vl\u00e1da revidovala sv\u016fj program dotac\u00ed na \u017eiviny v hodnot\u011b zhruba 4,5 miliardy dolar\u016f a up\u0159ednost\u0148uje plyn pro hnojiva, co\u017e n\u00e1klady p\u0159esouv\u00e1 do st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e aby je zcela eliminovalo.<\/span><\/p>\n

          Braz\u00edlie je nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdznamn\u00fdm zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdm v\u00fdvozcem.<\/span><\/strong> Proto\u017ee zem\u011b dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ve\u0161ker\u00fd dus\u00edk a v\u011bt\u0161inu fosf\u00e1t\u016f a proto\u017ee naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek s\u00edry z\u00e1rove\u0148 omezuje schopnost Maroka dod\u00e1vat fosf\u00e1ty, Braz\u00edlie ztr\u00e1c\u00ed jak sv\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9, tak i alternativn\u00ed zdroje. D\u016fsledky jsou zna\u010dn\u00e9 pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dod\u00e1vky s\u00f3ji a kuku\u0159ice, a tedy i pro dovoz krmiv pro zv\u00ed\u0159ata do \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

          Indon\u00e9sie je nejjasn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem toho, jak sirn\u00fd kan\u00e1l ovliv\u0148uje pr\u016fmyslovou ekonomiku.<\/span><\/strong> Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v\u00edce ne\u017e polovina sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce niklu a kapacity HPAL z\u00e1vis\u00ed na s\u00ed\u0159e z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, \u0161ok se dot\u00fdk\u00e1 dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f nerezov\u00e9 oceli a bateriov\u00fdch katod. Spole\u010dnost CRU ozn\u00e1mila rostouc\u00ed ceny niklu spolu s rekordn\u00ed cenou m\u011bdi kolem 13 000 dolar\u016f za tunu.<\/span><\/p>\n

          Africk\u00fd m\u011bd\u011bn\u00fd p\u00e1s zd\u016fraz\u0148uje hodnotu sob\u011bsta\u010dnosti.<\/span><\/strong> Provozovatel\u00e9 s vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdrobou kyselin, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad First Quantum v Zambii a kyselin\u00e1rna Kamoa-Kakula v Demokratick\u00e9 republice Kongo, hl\u00e1sili pouze omezen\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed, zat\u00edmco lou\u017eic\u00ed operace, kter\u00e9 se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na dov\u00e1\u017eenou s\u00edru z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, \u010del\u00ed omezen\u00edm produkce.<\/span><\/p>\n

          Vyva\u017eovac\u00ed faktory a relativn\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzov\u00e9<\/span><\/h2>\n