{"id":117615,"date":"2026-10-06T00:25:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T22:25:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=117615"},"modified":"2026-10-05T13:03:49","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T11:03:49","slug":"karel-strakos-zavod-s-casem-na-vychodnim-kridle-nato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/06\/karel-strakos-zavod-s-casem-na-vychodnim-kridle-nato\/","title":{"rendered":"Karel Strako\u0161: Z\u00e1vod s \u010dasem na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle NATO"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Pokud by Rusko ovl\u00e1dlo v\u011bt\u0161inu ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed a zni\u010dilo schopnost Kyjeva v\u00e9st v\u00e1lku jako st\u00e1t, zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky by m\u011bly jen dv\u011b re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mo\u017enosti. Bu\u010f kapitulovat nebo se st\u00e1hnout na z\u00e1pad. A na z\u00e1pad\u011b je NATO. P\u0159esn\u011b tam, kde se te\u010f buduj\u00ed protitankov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edkopy, bunkry a sklady materi\u00e1lu.<\/p>\n

Evropa s t\u00edmto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em v n\u011bjak\u00e9 podob\u011b po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 od za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu. A i te\u010f se mluv\u00ed o tom, \u017ee zku\u0161en\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky by mohly pos\u00edlit v\u00fdchodn\u00ed k\u0159\u00eddlo, \u017ee by mohly tvo\u0159it d\u016fle\u017eitou \u010d\u00e1st sil v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho konfliktu. Ofici\u00e1ln\u011b n\u00e1m nikdo ne\u0159ekne, \u017ee se p\u0159ipravuje p\u0159esun ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy na na\u0161e \u00fazem\u00ed. Ale logicky je to jasn\u00e9. Bojeschopn\u00e9, vycvi\u010den\u00e9 a motivovan\u00e9 jednotky s bojovou zku\u0161enost\u00ed by byly pro v\u00fdchodn\u00ed k\u0159\u00eddlo nesm\u00edrn\u011b cenn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

A mechanismus budouc\u00ed eskalace m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed: Ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly budou operovat u hranice Polska a pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f nebo v karpatsk\u00e9m oblouku nebo se tam p\u0159\u00edmo st\u00e1hnou. Budou pokra\u010dovat v \u00fatoc\u00edch na Rusko. Rusko zareaguje \u00fadery na tyto c\u00edle nebo na infrastrukturu, kter\u00e1 je podporuje.<\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy prohl\u00e1s\u00ed, \u017ee do\u0161lo k \u00fatoku na \u00fazem\u00ed NATO a \u017ee se br\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V tu chv\u00edli u\u017e nepot\u0159ebuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou dal\u0161\u00ed hloupou z\u00e1minku v podob\u011b dronu z TEMU na kr\u00e1l\u00edk\u00e1rn\u011b. Maj\u00ed p\u0159ipraven\u00fd dlouho budovan\u00fd narativ, \u017ee se Rusko nezastav\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b a nakonec za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty NATO.<\/p>\n

A kdo sleduje, jak se buduj\u00ed opevn\u011bn\u00ed, jak se mluv\u00ed o pos\u00edlen\u00ed v\u00fdchodn\u00edho k\u0159\u00eddla, jak se testuje ochota ve\u0159ejnosti k v\u00e1lce, a jak se z\u00e1rove\u0148 udr\u017euje maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed podpora pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky, tak ten sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 jasn\u011b vid\u00ed. Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed vysv\u011btlen\u00ed je v\u017edy obrana p\u0159ed Ruskem. Strategick\u00e1 realita b\u00fdv\u00e1 ov\u0161em mnohem jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b na \u00fazem\u00ed \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f NATO nebo alespo\u0148 na jeho okraj by pro evropsk\u00e9 elity m\u011blo n\u011bkolik v\u00fdhod. V prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b by se zv\u00fd\u0161il tlak na Rusko, kter\u00e9 by muselo v\u00e9st v\u00e1lku nejen proti zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edm ukrajinsk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m, ale potenci\u00e1ln\u011b i proti l\u00e9pe vyzbrojen\u00fdm a l\u00e9pe z\u00e1soben\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m na \u00fazem\u00ed aliance. To by znamenalo vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebu munice, techniky i lid\u00ed a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rozpt\u00fdlen\u00ed sil. Z hlediska opot\u0159ebov\u00e1vac\u00ed logiky by to Rusko st\u00e1lo v\u00edc ne\u017e sou\u010dasn\u00fd konflikt omezen\u00fd pouze na Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n

Evropa by tak z\u00edskala \u010das k odd\u00e1len\u00ed vlastn\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f. M\u00edsto toho, aby musela \u0159e\u0161it d\u016fsledky rusk\u00e9 v\u00fdhry na Ukrajin\u011b, ztr\u00e1tu vlivu, dal\u0161\u00ed vlnu uprchl\u00edku, energetickou a ekonomickou realitu, politick\u00e9 ot\u0159esy, mohla by konflikt udr\u017eet v chodu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se tv\u00e1\u0159it, \u017ee br\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed, a \u017ee m\u011bla pravdu o rusk\u00e9m agresorovi. T\u00edm by se odd\u00e1lil moment, kdy by bylo nutn\u00e9 p\u0159iznat strategick\u00fd ne\u00fasp\u011bch a za\u010d\u00edt za n\u011bj platit plnou cenu.<\/p>\n

Z rusk\u00e9ho pohledu by por\u00e1\u017eka Ukrajiny byla Pyrrhovo v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. P\u0159\u00edm\u00fd st\u0159et s NATO zvy\u0161uje riziko eskalace, kterou Moskva zat\u00edm pe\u010dliv\u011b omezovala. Ale pokud by evropsk\u00e9 elity usoudily, \u017ee alternativou je rychlej\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00fd \u00fapadek a dal\u0161\u00ed \u201eoslaben\u00ed\u201d Ruska, mohly by b\u00fdt ochotny toto riziko podstoupit. Zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pokud by v\u011b\u0159ily, \u017ee dok\u00e1\u017eou udr\u017eet konflikt v omezen\u00e9 podob\u011b a \u017ee Amerika je je\u0161t\u011b bude kr\u00fdt.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed proxy a zv\u011bt\u0161en\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b by nebylo jen nouzov\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm po kolapsu Ukrajiny. Mohlo by to b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako zp\u016fsob, jak je\u0161t\u011b chv\u00edli udr\u017eet tlak na Rusko a z\u00e1rove\u0148 odd\u00e1lit moment, kdy bude muset Evropa \u010delit d\u016fsledk\u016fm sv\u00e9 dosavadn\u00ed politiky.<\/p>\n

NATO, hlavn\u011b Polsko a pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty buduj\u00ed opevn\u011bn\u00ed a novou obrannou linii na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle s horizontem, kter\u00fd sah\u00e1 do konce dek\u00e1dy. Polsk\u00fd East Shield m\u00e1 hlavn\u00ed f\u00e1ze v\u00fdstavby do roku 2028, baltsk\u00e9 projekty maj\u00ed podobn\u00e9 v\u00edcelet\u00e9 harmonogramy. Polsk\u00fd program, kter\u00fd zahrnuje zhruba 700 km hranice s B\u011bloruskem a Kaliningradem buduje bunkry, protitankov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edkopy, p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky, palebn\u00e1 postaven\u00ed, sklady materi\u00e1lu pro rychl\u00e9 zatarasen\u00ed cest a most\u016f, syst\u00e9my monitoringu a protidronov\u00e9 prvky.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edm del\u0161\u00ed \u010das budou m\u00edt na v\u00fdstavbu t\u00e9to linie, t\u00edm pevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a l\u00e9pe p\u0159ipraven\u00e1 bude obrann\u00e1 infrastruktura, kterou by Rusko p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b muselo p\u0159ekon\u00e1vat.<\/p>\n

Z rusk\u00e9ho pohledu proto nyn\u00ed d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl sna\u017eit se rozhodnout ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt co nejd\u0159\u00edve. Pokud by se jim poda\u0159ilo zlomit ukrajinskou schopnost v\u00e9st v\u00e1lku je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e bude v\u00fdchodn\u00ed k\u0159\u00eddlo NATO v\u00fdrazn\u011b zpevn\u011bn\u00e9, sn\u00ed\u017eili by riziko, \u017ee se konflikt automaticky p\u0159enese na l\u00e9pe p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed aliance.<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00fd tlak, energetick\u00e1 kampa\u0148 p\u0159ed zimou, snaha naru\u0161it logistiku a postupn\u00e9 oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil p\u0159esn\u011b do t\u00e9to logiky zapad\u00e1. Nejde jen o to vyhr\u00e1t na Ukrajin\u011b. Jde tak\u00e9 o to, aby se p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed kolo, pokud by k n\u011bmu do\u0161lo rozehr\u00e1lo je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e NATO stihne dokon\u010dit to, co si napl\u00e1novalo na roky 2027\u20132030.<\/p>\n

\u010cas hraje v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b proti Rusku. A oni to zjevn\u011b v\u011bd\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u0161echny p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u00favahy jako posun fronty na z\u00e1pad, vyu\u017eit\u00ed zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil, roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed proxy, odd\u00e1len\u00ed evropsk\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho \u00fapadku m\u016f\u017eou fungovat jen za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee Rusko bude ochotno hr\u00e1t podle pravidel, kter\u00e9 se mu Z\u00e1pad sna\u017e\u00ed nastavit. Tedy \u017ee bude tolerovat \u00fatoky veden\u00e9 z \u00fazem\u00ed NATO, ani\u017e by odpov\u011bd\u011blo p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm \u00faderem na evropsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta nebo s\u00e1hlo po omezen\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 eskalaci.<\/p>\n

Jen\u017ee to nen\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Rusko u\u017e n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t ve\u0159ejn\u011b i nep\u0159\u00edmo signalizovalo, \u017ee pova\u017euje p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed NATO nebo \u00fatoky veden\u00e9 z jeho \u00fazem\u00ed za kvalitativn\u011b jinou situaci ne\u017e v\u00e1lku omezenou na Ukrajinu. V rusk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 kultu\u0159e existuje koncept \u201eeskalace za \u00fa\u010delem deeskalace\u201c, tedy omezen\u00e9ho, ale dostate\u010dn\u011b siln\u00e9ho sign\u00e1lu, v\u010detn\u011b taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 p\u0159inutit protivn\u00edka zastavit se d\u0159\u00edv, ne\u017e konflikt p\u0159eroste v tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku.<\/p>\n

Pokud by evropsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty skute\u010dn\u011b umo\u017enily ukrajinsk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m operovat ze sv\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed a Rusko by na to odpov\u011bd\u011blo \u00fadery na logistiku, velitelstv\u00ed nebo dokonce m\u011bsta, narativ \u201emy se jen br\u00e1n\u00edme\u201c by se velmi rychle dostal do konfliktu s realitou masivn\u00edch civiln\u00edch ztr\u00e1t a rizika dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace. A v tu chv\u00edli by se evropsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed ocitlo p\u0159ed ot\u00e1zkou, na kterou zat\u00edm nemaj\u00ed odpov\u011b\u010f. A to, jestli jsou ochotni riskovat p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd st\u0159et s jadernou velmoc\u00ed kv\u016fli pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky, kterou u\u017e na Ukrajin\u011b prohr\u00e1vaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Proto je cel\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed boji\u0161t\u011b logick\u00fd jen do ur\u010dit\u00e9ho bodu. Za n\u00edm u\u017e nez\u00e1vis\u00ed na evropsk\u00fdch pl\u00e1nech, ale na tom, kde Rusko nakresl\u00ed svou skute\u010dnou \u010dervenou linii a jestli bude ochotno si ji vynutit za jakoukoliv cenu.<\/p>\n

Karel Strako\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pokud by Rusko ovl\u00e1dlo v\u011bt\u0161inu ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed a zni\u010dilo schopnost Kyjeva v\u00e9st v\u00e1lku jako st\u00e1t,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[39,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117615"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}