{"id":117593,"date":"2026-10-06T00:17:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T22:17:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=117593"},"modified":"2026-10-05T12:14:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T10:14:50","slug":"ubyvajici-zasoby-iranske-ropy-se-stavaji-problemem-pro-vsechny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/06\/ubyvajici-zasoby-iranske-ropy-se-stavaji-problemem-pro-vsechny\/","title":{"rendered":"Ub\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1soby \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed probl\u00e9mem pro v\u0161echny"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ropa miz\u00ed z trhu \u2013 p\u0159esn\u011b v dob\u011b, kdy jej\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kazn\u00edk op\u011bt pot\u0159ebuje v\u00edce ropy.<\/span><\/strong> O\u017eiven\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky po rop\u011b se shoduje s kolapsem dodavatele, kter\u00fd b\u011bhem krize zaji\u0161\u0165oval z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00edch nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch rafineri\u00ed, co\u017e je nut\u00ed sout\u011b\u017eit o st\u00e1le dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed alternativy. D\u016fsledky sahaj\u00ed daleko za hranice \u010c\u00edny: Ka\u017ed\u00fd barel, kter\u00fd je t\u0159eba z\u00edskat jako n\u00e1hradu, sni\u017euje nab\u00eddku pro ostatn\u00ed kupce, zat\u00edmco Teher\u00e1n m\u00e1 st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed motivaci naru\u0161ovat dopravu p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. Pr\u016flivem nyn\u00ed prot\u00e9k\u00e1 p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b vysok\u00fd objem 13 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b \u2013 jen o 5 milion\u016f m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed \u2013 zat\u00edmco \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed ropa z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 na spadnut\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ropa byla dlouho podce\u0148ovanou slo\u017ekou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ropn\u00e9 bilance. Pot\u00e9, co byla v prosinci 2024 svr\u017eena vl\u00e1da Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada, \u010d\u00edm\u017e byly p\u0159eru\u0161eny politick\u00e9 vazby, kter\u00e9 umo\u017e\u0148ovaly \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky do S\u00fdrie, se \u010c\u00edna stala jedin\u00fdm odb\u011bratelem \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy \u2013 v roce 2025 dost\u00e1vala pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b 1,4 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. V\u00e1lka, kterou na konci \u00fanora zah\u00e1jily USA a Izrael, zpo\u010d\u00e1tku je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zv\u00fd\u0161ila d\u016fle\u017eitost \u00cdr\u00e1nu pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 odb\u011bratele: Teher\u00e1n sice br\u00e1nil jin\u00fdm tanker\u016fm v pr\u016fplavu Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, ale jeho vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1klady mohly proplouvat bez p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eek, co\u017e zp\u016fsobilo, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd dovoz \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy v dubnu vzrostl na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,76 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato konkuren\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdhoda skon\u010dila s blok\u00e1dou vyhl\u00e1\u0161enou USA 13. dubna. Nalo\u017een\u00e9 tankery ji\u017e nemohly opustit Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv a pr\u00e1zdn\u00e9 lod\u011b do n\u011bj nemohly vplout. Odbaven\u00ed n\u00e1kladu na ostrov\u011b Charg, hlavn\u00edm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m exportn\u00edm termin\u00e1lu, prudce kleslo z 1,8 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b v b\u0159eznu na 260 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b v kv\u011btnu. Memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed vydan\u00e9 17. \u010dervna, kter\u00e9 povolovalo p\u0159epravu \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch z\u00e1silek po dobu 60 dn\u016f, p\u0159ineslo do\u010dasnou \u00falevu: Odbaven\u00ed n\u00e1kladu se v \u010dervnu zotavilo na 740 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b a v \u010dervenci na 890 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b. Lh\u016fta v\u0161ak v srpnu vypr\u0161ela, z\u00e1silky op\u011bt klesly na 250 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b a <\/span>v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nebylo v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu pozorov\u00e1no \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 odbaven\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1kladu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu se v\u0161ak odehr\u00e1vala mimo pr\u016fliv. \u00cdr\u00e1n nashrom\u00e1\u017edil obrovsk\u00e9 plovouc\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy, kter\u00e9 mu umo\u017enily pokra\u010dovat v dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch do \u010c\u00edny, i kdy\u017e \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nov\u00e9 z\u00e1silky nemohly opustit Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv. Do poloviny dubna tato rezerva \u010dinila p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 160 milion\u016f barel\u016f, rozlo\u017een\u00fdch ve vod\u00e1ch ji\u017en\u00ed, jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie. D\u00edky t\u011bmto rezerv\u00e1m \u010c\u00edna v kv\u011btnu st\u00e1le dov\u00e1\u017eela 1,37 milionu barel\u016f \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy denn\u011b \u2013 jen o 10 procent m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v \u00fanoru. Rezerva se v\u0161ak zmen\u0161ovala: \u00darove\u0148 plovouc\u00edch z\u00e1sob klesla do poloviny \u010dervna na 106 milion\u016f barel\u016f, ne\u017e jim do\u010dasn\u00e9 znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed pr\u016flivu umo\u017enilo do poloviny \u010dervence znovu se zv\u00fd\u0161it na 128 milion\u016f barel\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto dopl\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed dostupn\u00fdch plovouc\u00edch skladovac\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se nyn\u00ed zastavilo. \u010c\u00edna v srpnu dost\u00e1vala 980 000 barel\u016f \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy denn\u011b, ale v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pouze 475 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e od 26. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nep\u0159i\u0161ly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky. V\u0161echny posledn\u00ed z\u00e1silky byly nalo\u017eeny ji\u017e v \u010dervnu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n st\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed na mo\u0159i p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 86 milion\u016f barel\u016f ropy \u2013 co\u017e je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed objem od ledna 2025. Z toho v\u0161ak 23 milion\u016f barel\u016f \u2013 v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dtvrtina \u2013 uv\u00edzlo v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu. Celkov\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed se od doby, kdy dod\u00e1vky do \u010c\u00edny v posledn\u00edch dvou t\u00fddnech t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u011b ustaly a ve\u0161ker\u00e9 detekovateln\u00e9 nakl\u00e1dky na ostrov\u011b Charg byly zastaveny, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nezm\u011bnilo. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee se pevninsk\u00e9 sklady postupn\u011b pln\u00ed \u2013 podle \u00fadaj\u016f spole\u010dnosti Kpler jsou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 skladovac\u00ed n\u00e1dr\u017ee nyn\u00ed napln\u011bny z 60 procent a obsahuj\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 70 milion\u016f barel\u016f \u2013 bude \u00cdr\u00e1n nevyhnuteln\u011b \u010delit rozhodnut\u00ed omezit svou produkci. Zat\u00edmco produkce p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,2 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b je relativn\u011b jist\u00e1 d\u00edky popt\u00e1vce z vlastn\u00edch rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, <\/span>teher\u00e1nsk\u00e1 p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 produkce ropy ve v\u00fd\u0161i 3,2 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b se ji\u017e nezd\u00e1 dosa\u017eiteln\u00e1.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 takzvan\u00e9 \u201e\u010dajn\u00edky\u201c \u2013 men\u0161\u00ed, nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 rafinerie soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00e9 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v provincii \u0160an-tung \u2013 to znamen\u00e1 ztr\u00e1tu z\u00e1kladn\u00edho kamene jejich dod\u00e1vek ropy. Tyto rafinerie se pod\u00edlej\u00ed zhruba na p\u011btin\u011b \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho dovozu ropy a sv\u00e9 n\u00e1kupn\u00ed strategie zalo\u017eily na zlevn\u011bn\u00fdch, schv\u00e1len\u00fdch dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch ropy, zejm\u00e9na z \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Ruska. Nyn\u00ed se mus\u00ed poohl\u00e9dnout po rop\u011b d\u00e1le \u2013 na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Africe a Ji\u017en\u00ed Americe. V polovin\u011b z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b deset nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch rafineri\u00ed vyslalo obchodn\u00edky do Singapuru, aby si zajistili dostupn\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky z t\u011bchto region\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento posun je patrn\u00fd v p\u0159\u00edstavech provincie \u0160an-tung.<\/span><\/strong> \u010cching-tao, kter\u00e9 je ropovody propojeno s dvan\u00e1cti nez\u00e1visl\u00fdmi rafineriemi, v roce 2025 odeb\u00edralo z \u00cdr\u00e1nu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 40 procent sv\u00e9ho objemu p\u0159\u00edjmu, kter\u00fd \u010dinil 690 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b. V posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159\u00edstav zv\u00fd\u0161il n\u00e1kup brazilsk\u00e9 ropy Tupi a Buzios a v \u010dervenci dokonce za\u010dal dov\u00e1\u017eet guayanskou ropu Golden Arrow, zat\u00edmco z\u00e1silky ze Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a Ruska nad\u00e1le p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed. Objem dovozu v\u0161ak za posledn\u00ed t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce klesl na rekordn\u011b n\u00edzkou \u00farove\u0148, kolem 150 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V Dongyingu na severn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed provincie Bohaj v provincii Shandong, kde se nach\u00e1z\u00ed 32 nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch rafineri\u00ed, dodaly Rusko a \u00cdr\u00e1n v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce prakticky v\u0161ech 330 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b \u2013 Rusko zhruba dv\u011b t\u0159etiny a \u00cdr\u00e1n jednu t\u0159etinu. <\/span>\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky za\u010daly v letn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch klesat; v srpnu dorazily pouze dv\u011b dod\u00e1vky a v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pouze jedna.<\/span><\/strong> Celkov\u00fd dovoz klesl v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed na pouh\u00fdch 220 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b, proto\u017ee rafinerie trp\u00edc\u00ed nedostatkem ropy byly nuceny sn\u00ed\u017eit svou zpracovatelskou kapacitu.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00edky tomu tyto rafinerie spot\u0159ebov\u00e1vaj\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b ropy, zat\u00edmco alternativy se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed dra\u017e\u0161\u00edmi. Surov\u00e1 ropa z Guyany je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b n\u00e1kladn\u00e1, kdy\u017e se dlouh\u00e9 p\u0159epravn\u00ed trasy shoduj\u00ed s bezprecedentn\u00edm nedostatkem velmi velk\u00fdch tanker\u016f na ropu a rekordn\u00edmi p\u0159epravn\u00edmi sazbami. Aby \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da povzbudila nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 rafinerie k nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed, p\u0159id\u011blila na konci z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch 28,05 milionu tun kv\u00f3t na dovoz ropy. T\u00edm se ro\u010dn\u00ed alokace pro dovoz od nest\u00e1tn\u00edch subjekt\u016f zv\u00fd\u0161ila na rekordn\u00edch 257 milion\u016f tun. Tyto kv\u00f3ty ur\u010duj\u00ed, kolik ropy mohou rafinerie dov\u00e9zt. I kdy\u017e jim toto zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed d\u00e1v\u00e1 prostor pro dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1kupy, ve skute\u010dnosti to jen m\u00e1lo zp\u0159\u00edstup\u0148uje v\u00edce ropy nebo ji \u010din\u00ed dostupn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Konkurence o ruskou ropu se tak\u00e9 zost\u0159uje. <\/span>\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 n\u00e1kupy \u00fadajn\u011b vytla\u010dily cenovou pr\u00e9mii ropy ESPO na historick\u00e9 maximum 28 dolar\u016f za barel oproti rop\u011b ICE Brent<\/span><\/strong> , zat\u00edmco ropa Urals se obchoduje s pr\u00e9mi\u00ed 7 a\u017e 8 dolar\u016f za barel oproti stejn\u00e9mu benchmarku. Nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 rafinerie mus\u00ed tak\u00e9 konkurovat st\u00e1tn\u00edm odb\u011bratel\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed v sou\u010dasnosti tvo\u0159\u00ed zhruba polovinu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho dovozu ropy po mo\u0159i, oproti 45 procent\u016fm v \u00fanoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u017eiven\u00ed \u010c\u00edny je st\u00e1le v ran\u00e9 f\u00e1zi. Dovoz ropy po mo\u0159i vzrostl ze 7,24 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b v srpnu na 7,5 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, ale z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 hluboko pod \u00fanorov\u00fdmi 11,5 miliony barel\u016f denn\u011b. Mezi dubnem a \u010dervencem klesl dovoz zhruba na polovinu \u00farovn\u011b p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed, a to kv\u016fli z\u00e1kazu v\u00fdvozu rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed ze strany Pekingu, ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmu vyu\u017eit\u00ed rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed a postupn\u00e9mu zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch rezerv. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 rezervy \u2013 st\u00e1tn\u00ed i soukrom\u00e9 \u2013 z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed na \u00farovni 1,12 miliardy barel\u016f, co\u017e je pokles z 1,25 miliardy v dubnu. O\u017eiven\u00ed dovozu spolu s klesaj\u00edc\u00edmi \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi dod\u00e1vkami v\u0161ak zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed tlak na dod\u00e1vky ropy dostupn\u00e9 jinde.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Teher\u00e1n je tato nerovnov\u00e1ha st\u00e1le obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. M\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed pokra\u010duj\u00ed bez pr\u016flomu, jeho ropa z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 blokov\u00e1na a jeho p\u0159\u00edjmy z exportu jsou pod tlakem. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 ropa od sousedn\u00edch producent\u016f proud\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b vysok\u00fdm tempem 13 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b. Toto o\u017eiven\u00ed je pro kupuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00falevou i zranitelnost\u00ed. <\/span>Dokud \u00cdr\u00e1n s\u00e1m nem\u016f\u017ee vyv\u00e1\u017eet ropu, m\u00e1 zem\u011b jen malou ekonomickou motivaci k udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed dohody, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uje sousedn\u00edm st\u00e1t\u016fm p\u0159epravovat jejich ropu pr\u016flivem.<\/span><\/strong> Rostouc\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed tlak by mohl nakonec v\u00e9st Teher\u00e1n k naru\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto tok\u016f ropy \u2013 drasti\u010dt\u011bji ne\u017e kdykoli p\u0159edt\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trh proto \u010del\u00ed dv\u011bma vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojen\u00fdm rizik\u016fm: \u010c\u00edna mus\u00ed nahradit \u00edr\u00e1nskou ropu, jakmile se jej\u00ed popt\u00e1vka zotav\u00ed, a \u00cdr\u00e1n by mohl ztratit trp\u011blivost s pr\u016flivem, kter\u00fd se znovu otev\u0159e v\u0161em ostatn\u00edm. Zmizen\u00ed dod\u00e1vek \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy ji\u017e nyn\u00ed nap\u00edn\u00e1 trh. Dal\u0161\u00ed naru\u0161en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu by zna\u010dn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ilo n\u00e1klady na jeho nahrazen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Napsala Natalia Katona p\u0159es OilPrice.com<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ropa miz\u00ed z trhu \u2013 p\u0159esn\u011b v dob\u011b, kdy jej\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kazn\u00edk op\u011bt pot\u0159ebuje…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":112179,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,1503,3368,310],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117593"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117593"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117593\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/112179"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}