{"id":117293,"date":"2026-10-02T00:32:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T22:32:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=117293"},"modified":"2026-10-01T16:57:38","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T14:57:38","slug":"rusko-eu-je-valka-nevyhnutelna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/10\/02\/rusko-eu-je-valka-nevyhnutelna\/","title":{"rendered":"Rusko-EU: Je v\u00e1lka nevyhnuteln\u00e1?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rusko a Evropa st\u00e1le otev\u0159en\u011bji diskutuj\u00ed o v\u00e1lce. EU se p\u0159ipravuje na mo\u017en\u00fd konflikt, zat\u00edmco Moskva varuje, \u017ee by mohl b\u00fdt \u201evelmi kr\u00e1tk\u00fd\u201c. Jak realistick\u00e1 je p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 konfrontace a co by mohlo spustit rozs\u00e1hlou v\u00e1lku?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u00e9n\u011b a m\u00e9n\u011b hybrid\u016f<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

\u201eOpakovan\u011b jsme \u0159\u00edkali, \u017ee <\/span>nem\u00e1me v \u00famyslu \u00fato\u010dit na Evropu<\/span><\/a> . Nem\u00e1me na tom \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1jem. Ale pokud Evropa, kter\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00fd den mluv\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b na v\u00e1lku proti Rusku, za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Ruskou federaci, bude to v\u00e1lka \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9ho druhu a bude velmi kr\u00e1tk\u00e1,\u201c \u0159ekl rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho projevu na Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm festivalu ml\u00e1de\u017ee v Jekat\u011brinburgu 16. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee neusiluje o konfrontaci s evropsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi. Rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed nicm\u00e9n\u011b poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee je to Z\u00e1pad, kdo zvolil cestu k omezen\u00ed Ruska, zejm\u00e9na prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u201eaktivn\u00ed a drz\u00e9 expanze NATO sm\u011brem k rusk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V EU na druhou stranu panuje p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 akce se ji\u017e roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily za hranice Ukrajiny a maj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd dopad na evropsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed. V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed byl nad Litvou sest\u0159elen rusk\u00fd dron; pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se odch\u00fdlil od letov\u00e9 trasy sm\u011brem k Ukrajin\u011b. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 byl na polsk\u00e9m pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed objeven dron Gerbera vybaven\u00fd t\u0159\u00ed\u0161tiv\u011b-v\u00fdbu\u0161nou n\u00e1lo\u017e\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve sv\u00e9m v\u00fdro\u010dn\u00edm projevu k Evropsk\u00e9mu parlamentu p\u0159edsedkyn\u011b Evropsk\u00e9 komise Ursula von der Leyenov\u00e1 zd\u016fraznila kybernetick\u00e9 \u00fatoky, sabot\u00e1\u017ee, \u017eh\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a vniknut\u00ed dron\u016f. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b zm\u00ednila \u00fatok dronem v Lipsku, kter\u00fd n\u011bmeck\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady p\u0159ipsaly Rusku.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNesm\u00edme si <\/span>d\u011blat iluze<\/span><\/a> o tom, co se d\u011bje: hybridn\u00ed hrozby, kter\u00fdm Evropa \u010del\u00ed, se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l m\u00e9n\u011b hybridn\u00edmi a \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l m\u00e9n\u011b jednoduch\u00fdmi hrozbami,\u201c \u0159ekla von der Leyenov\u00e1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko se p\u0159ipravuje na nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159. \u00da\u0159ady posuzuj\u00ed kapacitu sv\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de fungovat v kontextu velk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle NATO. Podle odhad\u016f Bundeswehru by zem\u011b mohla denn\u011b p\u0159ij\u00edmat a\u017e 1 000 zran\u011bn\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. P\u011bt vojensk\u00fdch nemocnic by se rychle stalo p\u0159et\u00ed\u017een\u00fdmi a zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1t\u011b\u017ee by padla na civiln\u00ed kliniky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e1hodn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Navzdory rostouc\u00edmu nap\u011bt\u00ed odborn\u00edci nepova\u017euj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmou v\u00e1lku mezi Ruskem a NATO za nevyhnutelnou. Pravd\u011bpodobnost takov\u00e9ho konfliktu do roku 2030 odhaduj\u00ed na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 10 %. Po tomto datu by se rizika podle nich mohla zv\u00fd\u0161it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale pokud by tato v\u00e1lka vypukla, mohla by se odehr\u00e1vat podle n\u011bkolika sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/span><\/strong> : eskalace v souvislosti s Kaliningradskou oblast\u00ed, ruskou enkl\u00e1vou obklopenou zem\u011bmi Evropsk\u00e9 unie, a pokus evropsk\u00fdch sil o jej\u00ed dobyt\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/span><\/strong> : krize souvisej\u00edc\u00ed s B\u011bloruskem, b\u011blorusko-polskou hranic\u00ed nebo s pobaltsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/span><\/strong> : v\u00e1lka by mohla za\u010d\u00edt provokac\u00ed, \u00fatoky neidentifikovan\u00fdch dron\u016f nebo sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed. Tyto incidenty by postupn\u011b vtahovaly do konfliktu st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed s\u00edly, dokud by se lok\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace nezm\u011bnila v plnohodnotnou v\u00e1lku.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b, n\u00e1hl\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed nebo naopak pos\u00edlen\u00ed Ruska, by nav\u00edc mohl donutit evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 intervenci vlastn\u00edmi silami.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edmo spojen s Evropou, ale s \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed konfrontac\u00ed mezi Z\u00e1padem a V\u00fdchodem: v\u00e1lka o Tchaj-wan, situace na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b nebo konflikt v Africe. To v\u0161e by mohlo v\u00e9st k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu st\u0159etu mezi rusk\u00fdmi a evropsk\u00fdmi z\u00e1jmy. Kavkaz je dal\u0161\u00edm potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm ohniskem konfliktu. Eskalace s Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed by mohla v\u00e9st i k pou\u017eit\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1, p\u0159edem napl\u00e1novan\u00e1 v\u00e1lka je t\u0159eba br\u00e1t v\u00e1\u017en\u011b sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ne\u00famysln\u00e9 eskalace. D\u016fsledky boj\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b ji\u017e nelze zcela omezit v r\u00e1mci st\u00e1tn\u00edch hranic a rostouc\u00ed po\u010det raketov\u00fdch a bezpilotn\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f zvy\u0161uje riziko chybn\u00e9ho odhadu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 konfrontace nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt v\u00fdsledkem \u00famysln\u00e9ho rozhodnut\u00ed kter\u00e9koli ze stran, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e incidentu. P\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u00farovni nap\u011bt\u00ed by i n\u00e1hodn\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost mohla spustit \u0159et\u011bzovou reakci odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed. Mezi mechanismy, kter\u00e9 mohou takovou eskalaci omezit, z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 komunika\u010dn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly mezi Moskvou a evropsk\u00fdmi hlavn\u00edmi m\u011bsty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka nerv\u016f<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Krom\u011b skute\u010dn\u00fdch rizik eskalace m\u016f\u017ee diskuse o mo\u017en\u00e9 velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce slou\u017eit i politick\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b Rusko tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee nikdy neza\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Evropu. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b oznamuje, \u017ee v\u00e1lka bude kr\u00e1tk\u00e1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva by mohla v\u011bdom\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edt hrozby p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontace k vyv\u00edjen\u00ed tlaku na \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty EU, proto\u017ee v\u00ed, \u017ee evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed mezi hlavn\u00edmi podporovateli Ukrajiny.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 z\u00e1jem na vylou\u010den\u00ed EU z okruhu hlavn\u00edch d\u00e1rc\u016f Ukrajiny. P\u0159edstava, \u017ee by kdykoli mohlo doj\u00edt k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9, potenci\u00e1ln\u011b katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed konfrontaci, nepochybn\u011b ovliv\u0148uje Evropskou unii a jej\u00ed jednotliv\u00e9 \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato r\u00e9torika se st\u00e1v\u00e1 obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b citlivou v kontextu vnitropolitick\u00fdch boj\u016f v Evrop\u011b. Ve Francii se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed prezidentsk\u00e1 kampa\u0148 v roce 2027, zat\u00edmco v N\u011bmecku se v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed konaj\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed volby, a to v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e siln\u00e9ho tlaku na feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1du.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b pokus zastra\u0161it protivn\u00edka hrozbou velk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s\u00e1m o sob\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00e9mu by se ob\u011b strany r\u00e1dy vyhnuly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thierry Bertrand<\/span><\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusko a Evropa st\u00e1le otev\u0159en\u011bji diskutuj\u00ed o v\u00e1lce. EU se p\u0159ipravuje na mo\u017en\u00fd konflikt, zat\u00edmco…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117294,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[41,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117293"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117293"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117293\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117294"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}