{"id":117105,"date":"2026-09-30T00:39:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T22:39:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=117105"},"modified":"2026-09-29T18:54:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T16:54:46","slug":"vetrna-a-solarni-energie-studie-prirody-varuje-pred-bleskovym-energetickym-suchem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/30\/vetrna-a-solarni-energie-studie-prirody-varuje-pred-bleskovym-energetickym-suchem\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u011btrn\u00e1 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie: Studie p\u0159\u00edrody varuje p\u0159ed \u201ebleskov\u00fdm energetick\u00fdm suchem\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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St\u00e1le v\u00edce v\u011btrn\u00fdch turb\u00edn, st\u00e1le v\u00edce sol\u00e1rn\u00edch panel\u016f \u2013 ale pokud po\u010das\u00ed nespolupracuje, ani dal\u0161\u00ed rekordn\u00ed expanze je m\u00e1lo u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e1. Nov\u00e1 studie zkoum\u00e1 obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b problematick\u00fd aspekt tohoto probl\u00e9mu: v\u00fdroba v\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie m\u016f\u017ee sou\u010dasn\u011b zaznamenat masivn\u00ed poklesy v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9m obdob\u00ed a pot\u00e9 z\u016fstat slab\u00e1 cel\u00e9 dny. Takov\u00e1 \u201ebleskov\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 sucha\u201c nebo obdob\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u011btrn\u00e9ho a sol\u00e1rn\u00edho v\u00fdkonu vy\u017eaduj\u00ed dodate\u010dnou rezervn\u00ed kapacitu, zvy\u0161uj\u00ed n\u00e1klady a zvy\u0161uj\u00ed riziko neuspokojen\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky po elekt\u0159in\u011b. Nav\u00edc podle modelu se p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 70,8 procenta sv\u011btov\u00e9 instalovan\u00e9 kapacity v\u011btrn\u00fdch a sol\u00e1rn\u00edch elektr\u00e1ren nach\u00e1z\u00ed v regionech, kde by k takov\u00fdm ud\u00e1lostem mohlo v budoucnu doch\u00e1zet \u010dast\u011bji nebo po del\u0161\u00ed dobu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u011btrn\u00e9 turb\u00edny se dnes st\u00e1le to\u010d\u00ed, sol\u00e1rn\u00ed panely dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed slu\u0161n\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed energie \u2013 ale kr\u00e1tce nato v\u00fdroba kv\u016fli pov\u011btrnostn\u00edm podm\u00ednk\u00e1m prudce kles\u00e1 a z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 na nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed. V n\u011bm\u010din\u011b se tomu obvykle \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u201eDunkelflaute\u201c (temn\u00e1 stagnace). Proto\u017ee politici, zasko\u010den\u00ed v\u0161eobecnou klimatickou hysteri\u00ed, se spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na v\u00fdrobu elekt\u0159iny z\u00e1vislou na po\u010das\u00ed, zvy\u0161uje to rizika pro dod\u00e1vky. Na pap\u00ed\u0159e st\u00e1le existuje obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed instalovan\u00e9 kapacity. V rozvodn\u00e9 s\u00edti se v\u0161ak po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 pouze elekt\u0159ina, kter\u00e1 se skute\u010dn\u011b vyrob\u00ed a m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt distribuov\u00e1na spot\u0159ebitel\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00edtr a slunce jsou nespolehliv\u00e9<\/span><\/h3>\n

Studie publikovan\u00e1 21. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v \u010dasopise Nature Climate Change zkoum\u00e1 takov\u00e9 rychl\u00e9 poklesy po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. P\u016fvodn\u00ed n\u00e1zev zn\u00ed \u201e <\/span>Flash energy droughts in solar and wind resources under climate change<\/span><\/a> \u201c (Bleskov\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 sucho v sol\u00e1rn\u00edch a v\u011btrn\u00fdch zdroj\u00edch za klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn). V\u011bdci pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed term\u00edn \u201eflash energy drought\u201c (bleskov\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 sucho) k popisu n\u00e1hl\u00e9ho a v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho poklesu produkce v\u011btrn\u00e9 nebo sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie, kter\u00fd pot\u00e9 z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 po dobu nejm\u00e9n\u011b t\u0159\u00ed dn\u016f mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fd. V podstat\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o to, co by se v N\u011bmecku nazvalo \u201etemn\u00fdm stagnac\u00ed\u201c nebo \u201edark druldrums\u201c (temn\u00e1 stagnace). Kdy\u017e se takov\u00e1 obdob\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u011btrn\u00e9ho a sol\u00e1rn\u00edho v\u00fdkonu vyskytnou sou\u010dasn\u011b, dva \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed pil\u00ed\u0159e sou\u010dasn\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 politiky posedl\u00e9 klimatem se dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed pod obrovsk\u00fd tlak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pozoruhodn\u00fd je v\u00fdvoj kombinovan\u00fdch v\u011btrn\u00fdch a sol\u00e1rn\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. Ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i SSP1-2.6, kter\u00fd v\u011bdci pou\u017eili, se jejich modelovan\u00e1 d\u00e9lka trv\u00e1n\u00ed prodlu\u017euje o 155,7 procenta. Je ironi\u00ed, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b ten meteorologick\u00fd vzorec, ve kter\u00e9m se v\u011btrn\u00e1 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie vz\u00e1jemn\u011b nepodporuj\u00ed, vykazuje nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst. To tak\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u011b podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 jeden z obl\u00edben\u00fdch argument\u016f energetick\u00e9 transformace: \u017ee v\u00edtr v\u017edy n\u011bkde fouk\u00e1 a slunce v\u017edy n\u011bkde sv\u00edt\u00ed. Toto \u201en\u011bkde\u201c elektriza\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edti jen m\u00e1lo prosp\u00edv\u00e1. Pokud se produkce v\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie zhrout\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u011b, chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed energie mus\u00ed poch\u00e1zet odjinud \u2013 ze z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f energie, dispe\u010dersky ovl\u00e1dan\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren, dovozu nebo jin\u00fdch rezerv.<\/span><\/p>\n

A tato rezerva nen\u00ed zadarmo. Ve sv\u00e9m modelu elektrick\u00e9 soustavy v\u011bdci dosp\u00edvaj\u00ed k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm po\u017eadavk\u016fm na flexibiln\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacitu, vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1klad\u016fm a v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu riziku neuspokojen\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky. \u010c\u00edm v\u00edce se elektrick\u00e1 soustava spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na v\u00fdrobu energie z\u00e1vislou na po\u010das\u00ed, t\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je m\u00edt schopnost zas\u00e1hnout, kdy\u017e v\u011btrn\u00e9 turb\u00edny a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed panely vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed m\u00e1lo. Roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jedn\u00e9 strany rovnice neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee nezbytn\u00e1 z\u00e1loha na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b je zbyte\u010dn\u00e1 \u2013 naopak, \u010din\u00ed ji je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instalovan\u00fd v\u00fdkon elektr\u00e1rny je v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku irelevantn\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Naopak, pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto je h\u00e1\u010dek, kter\u00fd se v oslavn\u00fdch ozn\u00e1men\u00edch politik\u016f o nov\u011b instalovan\u00fdch v\u011btrn\u00fdch a sol\u00e1rn\u00edch elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1ch \u010dasto p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. V\u011btrn\u00e1 farma m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt obrovsk\u00fd jmenovit\u00fd v\u00fdkon. Sol\u00e1rn\u00ed park tak\u00e9. Vysok\u00fd jmenovit\u00fd v\u00fdkon (nebo instalovan\u00e1 kapacita elektr\u00e1rny) je v\u0161ak k ni\u010demu, pokud jsou v\u00edtr a slunce slab\u00e9 pr\u00e1v\u011b ve chv\u00edli, kdy je elekt\u0159ina pot\u0159eba. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je spolehliv\u00e9 nap\u00e1jen\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b v okam\u017eiku, kdy vznikne popt\u00e1vka. Rozsah probl\u00e9mu je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b z\u0159ejm\u00fd s druh\u00fdm \u010d\u00edslem: podle studie se 70,8 procenta sv\u011btov\u00e9 instalovan\u00e9 kapacity v\u011btrn\u00fdch a sol\u00e1rn\u00edch elektr\u00e1ren nach\u00e1z\u00ed v regionech, kde by se mohla zv\u00fd\u0161it frekvence nebo trv\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00fdch bleskov\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch such. Toto riziko proto ovliv\u0148uje obrovskou \u010d\u00e1st st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho parku v\u011btrn\u00fdch a sol\u00e1rn\u00edch elektr\u00e1ren.<\/span><\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i sv\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty propojuj\u00ed s klimatick\u00fdmi modely a budouc\u00edmi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, kter\u00e9 podl\u00e9haj\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fdm nejistot\u00e1m. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed technick\u00fd probl\u00e9m v\u0161ak nevy\u017eaduje progn\u00f3zu sahaj\u00edc\u00ed a\u017e do konce stolet\u00ed: v\u011btrn\u00e9 turb\u00edny jsou z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na v\u011btrn\u00e9 energii, sol\u00e1rn\u00ed panely na slune\u010dn\u00edm z\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed. Pokud oba syst\u00e9my sel\u017eou sou\u010dasn\u011b ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010di men\u0161\u00ed m\u00ed\u0159e (probl\u00e9m, kter\u00fd jsem tak\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161il ve sv\u00e9 knize \u201e <\/span>M\u00e1nie v\u011btrn\u00e9 energie<\/span><\/a> \u201c), mus\u00ed tuto mezeru ve v\u00fdrob\u011b zaplnit jin\u00e9 syst\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n

To vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zku, kter\u00e9 se uprost\u0159ed politick\u00e9ho nad\u0161en\u00ed pro neust\u00e1le rostouc\u00ed c\u00edle expanze v\u011bnuje mnohem men\u0161\u00ed pozornost: Kolik spolehliv\u00e9 kapacity mus\u00ed b\u00fdt udr\u017eov\u00e1no v rezerv\u011b? 100 gigawatt\u016f instalovan\u00e9 v\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed kapacity jednodu\u0161e nen\u00ed 100 gigawatt\u016f elekt\u0159iny, na kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee s\u00ed\u0165 spolehnout ka\u017edou minutu. A \u010d\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je flotila elektr\u00e1ren z\u00e1visl\u00fdch na po\u010das\u00ed, t\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou \u00falo\u017ei\u0161t\u011b energie, s\u00edt\u011b, rezervn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny a dal\u0161\u00ed dispe\u010dersky \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 zdroje. A ty stoj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed pen\u00edze \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed dod\u00e1vat elekt\u0159inu, nebo ne.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

St\u00e1le v\u00edce v\u011btrn\u00fdch turb\u00edn, st\u00e1le v\u00edce sol\u00e1rn\u00edch panel\u016f \u2013 ale pokud po\u010das\u00ed nespolupracuje, ani dal\u0161\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117106,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[67,3049,2625],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117105"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117105"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117105\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117106"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117105"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117105"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117105"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}