{"id":117083,"date":"2026-09-30T00:31:59","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T22:31:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=117083"},"modified":"2026-09-29T18:16:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T16:16:31","slug":"chybne-predpoklady-ktere-jsou-zakladem-hyperventilace-evropanu-ohledne-valky-proti-rusku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/30\/chybne-predpoklady-ktere-jsou-zakladem-hyperventilace-evropanu-ohledne-valky-proti-rusku\/","title":{"rendered":"Chybn\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady, kter\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1kladem hyperventilace Evropan\u016f ohledn\u011b \u201ev\u00e1lky proti Rusku\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Byla to myln\u00e1 anal\u00fdza Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00e1 Z\u00e1pad uv\u011bznila v eskaluj\u00edc\u00edm schodi\u0161ti akc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Evropu riskuj\u00ed dov\u00e9st k v\u00e1lce s Ruskem.<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

V uplynul\u00fdch dnech evropsk\u00e1 politick\u00e1 t\u0159\u00edda zv\u00fd\u0161ila hlasitost na maximum v jasn\u011b slad\u011bn\u00fdch \u2013 a sd\u00edlen\u00fdch \u2013 projevech: \u201eV\u00e1lka s Ruskem se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed; Rusko m\u00e1 v \u00famyslu za\u00fato\u010dit na NATO; mus\u00edme se p\u0159ipravit; z\u00e1sobit se balenou vodou, konzervami a b\u00fdt p\u0159ipraveni nab\u00eddnout <\/span>sv\u00e9 d\u011bti<\/span><\/a> k brann\u00e9 povinnosti\u201c \u2013 <\/span>\u201eMnoz\u00ed zem\u0159ou; ale je jejich povinnost\u00ed br\u00e1nit svou zemi.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

To je nesmysl! Aby to dokreslili, evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i, v\u010detn\u011b vysok\u00e9ho p\u0159edstavitele EU Kallase a n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho kancl\u00e9\u0159e Merze, se ned\u00e1vno b\u011bhem evropsk\u00e9ho arktick\u00e9ho summitu 14. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b obl\u00e9kli do poln\u00ed kamufl\u00e1\u017ee, aby signalizovali \u201eobrannou pohotovost\u201c. (Tyto evropsk\u00e9 politiky si m\u016f\u017eete prohl\u00e9dnout ve vojensk\u00fdch uniform\u00e1ch <\/span>zde<\/span><\/a> ).<\/span><\/p>\n

Vypadaj\u00ed absurdn\u011b. To v\u0161ak nem\u016f\u017ee odv\u00e1d\u011bt pozornost od ot\u00e1zky \u2013 Co p\u0159esn\u011b je ta hysterie, kter\u00e1 sv\u00edr\u00e1 evropsk\u00e9 technokraty?<\/span><\/p>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled se zd\u00e1, \u017ee jednotn\u00e9 sd\u011blen\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko se chyst\u00e1 za\u00fato\u010dit na Evropu a \u017ee v\u00e1lka se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, ned\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd smysl. Evropa nem\u00e1 ani mu\u017ee, munici, finance, ani pr\u016fmyslovou kapacitu k veden\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti tomu, co dnes lze pova\u017eovat za p\u0159edn\u00ed vojenskou \u201evelmoc\u201c, a tak\u00e9 proti st\u00e1tu s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm invent\u00e1\u0159em jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

ZeroHedge <\/span><\/em>poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/a> , \u017ee<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e <\/span>Mezi nejhlasit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0161i\u0159itele t\u00e9to nepodlo\u017een\u00e9 narativu [o hroz\u00edc\u00edm rusk\u00e9m \u00fatoku] pat\u0159\u00ed v\u016fdci pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Nap\u0159\u00edklad tento t\u00fdden loty\u0161sk\u00fd prezident Edgars Rinkevics za\u0161el dokonce tak daleko, \u017ee prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 \u201e\u00fatoky\u201c na EU a NATO ji\u017e za\u010daly. Pobaltsk\u00e9 zem\u011b dokonce vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed pro sv\u00e9 obyvatelstvo pl\u00e1ny p\u0159ipravenosti na mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti, v nich\u017e tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 ve stylu Rud\u00e9ho \u00fasvitu.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201eNemluv\u00edme o konven\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Mluv\u00edme o nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch provokac\u00edch, nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00edch, nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch testech a tohle se rozhodn\u011b d\u011bje u\u017e te\u010f,\u201c \u0159ekl loty\u0161sk\u00fd v\u016fdce.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\u201ePolsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Donald Tusk tento t\u00fdden prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Rusko by mohlo zah\u00e1jit sporadick\u00e9 \u00fatoky, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edst\u00edr\u00e1 jako \u201en\u00e1hodn\u00e9\u201c, aby \u201eparalyzovalo nebo alespo\u0148 oslabilo motivaci zem\u00ed NATO\u201c, jak cituje Associated Press. \u201eExistuje re\u00e1ln\u00e9 riziko, \u017ee drony nebo jin\u00e9 typy projektil\u016f vstoup\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed jedn\u00e9 nebo n\u011bkolika zem\u00ed na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle a dokonce zp\u016fsob\u00ed zk\u00e1zu,\u201c dodal Tusk a varoval: \u201eMoskva by mohla v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch zaj\u00edt a\u017e tak daleko, \u017ee v n\u011bjak\u00e9 form\u011b zah\u00e1j\u00ed leteck\u00fd \u00fatok na \u00fazem\u00ed NATO, aby uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee z\u00e1vazek vojensk\u00e9 aliance k spole\u010dn\u00e9 obran\u011b podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 je jen o m\u00e1lo v\u00edc ne\u017e p\u00e1r slov na pap\u00ed\u0159e.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto se evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i, navzdory v\u0161em nashrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00fdm d\u016fkaz\u016fm, chv\u00e1l\u00ed, \u017ee budou psychologicky p\u0159ipraveni stisknout spou\u0161\u0165 \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 proti v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 jadern\u011b vyzbrojen\u00e9 mocnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

V n\u00e1vaznosti na tento humbuk ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov v\u00fdslovn\u011b <\/span>varoval<\/span><\/a> :<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eR\u00e1d bych zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee nem\u00e1me z\u00e1jem se do toho [\u00fatoku na Evropu] zapojit, ale pokud Evropa, kter\u00e1 denn\u011b hovo\u0159\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edprav\u00e1ch na v\u00e1lku proti Rusku, za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Rusko, bude to \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e1 v\u00e1lka \u2013 a bude velmi kr\u00e1tk\u00e1.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Co se skr\u00fdv\u00e1 za touto zd\u00e1nlivou absurditou? Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee bruselsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed vrstva vid\u00ed sv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 chyby (neomezen\u00e1 podpora Ukrajiny, ob\u011btov\u00e1n\u00ed evropsk\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edho modelu na olt\u00e1\u0159i tlaku na Rusko, podpora v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a lhostejnost k utrpen\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b) v pln\u00e9 s\u00edle.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jejich stra\u0161en\u00ed Ruska zav\u00e1n\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e zoufalstv\u00edm ne\u017e pe\u010dliv\u00fdm promy\u0161len\u00edm a n\u00e1le\u017eitou p\u00e9\u010d\u00ed o velmi re\u00e1ln\u00e1 rizika, kter\u00e1 plynou z takov\u00e9hoto \u201ehumbukov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c kolem v\u00e1lky. Establi\u0161ment nepochybn\u011b vid\u00ed, \u017ee energetick\u00e1 krize vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z americko-izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu u\u017e \u201enep\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed\u201c, ale \u017ee u\u017e <\/span>p\u0159i\u0161la.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Mohou vid\u011bt r\u016fst \u017eivotn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f, mizen\u00ed pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst a nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed kolaps trh\u016f \u2013 zejm\u00e9na na trhu s dluhopisy (jeho\u017e \u00farove\u0148 \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb definuje hodnotu v\u0161ech ostatn\u00edch rizikov\u00fdch aktiv). Vzhledem k tomu tito ohro\u017een\u00ed politici mo\u017en\u00e1 usoudili, \u017ee vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed strachu je jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak se odvr\u00e1tit od vlastn\u00edch selh\u00e1n\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e1 si d\u00e1t nad\u011bji, \u017ee p\u0159e\u017eij\u00ed volebn\u00ed cyklus.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed je kl\u00ed\u010dovou motivac\u00ed, ale psychiku elit pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b udr\u017euj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bdva p\u0159edpoklady, kter\u00e9 jsou sice nepravdiv\u00e9, ale politick\u00e9 t\u0159\u00edd\u011b zd\u00e1nliv\u011b zn\u00ed v\u011brohodn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00edm klamem je, \u017ee Rusko zah\u00e1jilo v \u00fanoru 2022 preventivn\u00ed v\u00e1lku s c\u00edlem obsadit Kyjev a zhruba 60 procent Ukrajiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ud\u00e1losti v S\u00fdrii vysv\u011btluj\u00ed realitu: Rusko ofici\u00e1ln\u011b vstoupilo do syrsk\u00e9ho ob\u010dansk\u00e9ho konfliktu v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2015 na \u017e\u00e1dost prezidenta Asada. Rusk\u00e1 intervence se uk\u00e1zala b\u00fdt omezen\u00e9ho rozsahu \u2013 velmi omezen\u00e9 nasazen\u00ed letectva (28 a\u017e 34 letadel) a minimum bojov\u00fdch speci\u00e1ln\u00edch jednotek (rusk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek se skl\u00e1dal p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm z vojensk\u00fdch poradc\u016f, p\u0159edsunut\u00fdch leteck\u00fdch dispe\u010der\u016f a vojensk\u00e9 policie).<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost v S\u00fdrii byla z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b symbolick\u00e1 \u2013 sp\u00ed\u0161e prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9m z\u00e1m\u011bru ne\u017e touha zapojit se do pozemn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. C\u00edlem Moskvy bylo ve skute\u010dnosti <\/span>vyhnout<\/span><\/em> se p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm pozemn\u00edm boj\u016fm. Rusk\u00e9 n\u00e1lety \u2013 s podporou \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch pozemn\u00edch vojsk \u2013 nicm\u00e9n\u011b pomohly syrsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b vytla\u010dit d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00e9 s\u00edly z Aleppa. To vedlo k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e9mu Ruskem a Tureckem na konci roku 2016 a kr\u00e1tce pot\u00e9 k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9ho procesu v Astan\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin\u016fv p\u0159\u00edstup k Aleppu jasn\u011b definoval model jeho po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed taktiky v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b. Rusko nasadilo odhadem <\/span>15<\/span><\/a> 000 a\u017e 30 000 mu\u017e\u016f v okol\u00ed Kyjeva b\u011bhem prvn\u00edho \u00fatoku na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022. Evropsk\u00e1 narativ, \u017ee tato s\u00edla m\u011bla na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022 dob\u00fdt Kyjev, je sm\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 \u2013 40 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f by mohlo zaplnit m\u011bstsk\u00e9 n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed, ale dok\u00e1\u017eou dob\u00fdt m\u011bsto s v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159emi miliony obyvatel? Absurdn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evrop\u0161t\u00ed a ameri\u010dt\u00ed koment\u00e1to\u0159i \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b americk\u00e9ho koment\u00e1tora <\/span>Roberta Papeho<\/span><\/a> \u2013 nicm\u00e9n\u011b tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee vzhledem k ne\u00fasp\u011bchu pokusu o dobyt\u00ed Kyjeva a <\/span>\u00fadajn\u00e9mu d\u016fsledku<\/span><\/em> , \u017ee Putin o\u010dek\u00e1val jeho symbolickou demonstraci \u201ev\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho \u00famyslu\u201c p\u0159im\u011bt NATO k \u00fastupu, to nazna\u010duje \u2013 jak tvrd\u00ed Pape \u2013 \u017ee Putin je chycen v <\/span>eskala\u010dn\u00ed pasti<\/span><\/em> . Pape tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Putin usiloval o rychl\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v roce 2022, ale jeliko\u017e selhal, je \u201euv\u011bzn\u011bn\u201c t\u00edm, \u017ee nyn\u00ed mus\u00ed \u0161plhat po eskala\u010dn\u00edm \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku se st\u00e1le hor\u0161\u00edmi vyhl\u00eddkami na \u00fasp\u011bch \u2013 a proto Putin selh\u00e1v\u00e1. \u201eJe to jen ot\u00e1zka \u010dasu.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskevsk\u00e1 demonstrace s\u00edly v S\u00fdrii, a\u010d mal\u00e1, zdaleka nebyla selh\u00e1n\u00edm, ale fungovala \u2013 Astana byla vzorem inspirovan\u00fdm syrskou sc\u00e9nou. Do konce b\u0159ezna 2022 Istanbulsk\u00fd proces vedl k <\/span>Istanbulsk\u00e9mu komunik\u00e9<\/span><\/em> , r\u00e1mci pro urovn\u00e1n\u00ed s Ukrajinou. Tato iniciativa selhala z jedin\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu \u2013 Boris Johnson ji torp\u00e9doval \u2013 a Rusko bylo nuceno se p\u0159eskupit, co\u017e se mu poda\u0159ilo, i kdy\u017e za cenu dlouh\u00e9 vy\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lky a zbyte\u010dn\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t statis\u00edc\u016f ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u017eivot\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne, byl to Boris Johnson, kdo zavedl Evropu do eskala\u010dn\u00ed pasti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Evropan\u00e9 sv\u016fj \u201e\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh\u201c v\u00e1lky proti Rusku podpo\u0159ili jednak my\u0161lenkou p\u0159ipisovan\u00e9ho selh\u00e1n\u00ed Kyjeva a jednak p\u0159ehnanou z\u00e1vislost\u00ed na finan\u010dn\u00edch sankc\u00edch. B\u00fdval\u00fd francouzsk\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed Le Maire v okam\u017eiku nad\u0161en\u00ed <\/span>vyhl\u00e1sil <\/span><\/a>\u201etot\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomickou a finan\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti Rusku\u201c<\/span><\/em> . Trval na tom, \u017ee sankce udus\u00ed a zhrout\u00ed ruskou ekonomiku \u2013 v praxi Rusko po roce 2007 p\u0159e\u0161lo na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed (sob\u011bsta\u010dn\u00fd) ekonomick\u00fd model a st\u00e1le prosperuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdo tedy koho nachytal? Z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159edstava, \u017ee Rusko je od okam\u017eiku, kdy selhal neexistuj\u00edc\u00ed pl\u00e1n na dobyt\u00ed Kyjeva, v pasti eskalace, obr\u00e1tila situaci zp\u011bt naruby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Byla to myln\u00e1 anal\u00fdza Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00e1 Z\u00e1pad uv\u011bznila v eskaluj\u00edc\u00edm schodi\u0161ti akc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Evropu necht\u011bn\u011b dovedou k v\u00e1lce s Ruskem \u2013 v\u00e1lce, kterou si \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd Evropan nep\u0159eje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alastair <\/span>Crooke<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Byla to myln\u00e1 anal\u00fdza Z\u00e1padu, kter\u00e1 Z\u00e1pad uv\u011bznila v eskaluj\u00edc\u00edm schodi\u0161ti akc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 Evropu riskuj\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117084,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,283,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117083"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117083"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117083\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117084"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}