{"id":117014,"date":"2026-09-29T05:26:35","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T03:26:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=117014"},"modified":"2026-09-29T05:26:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T03:26:35","slug":"pasinjanuv-obrat-na-zapad-promenit-armenii-ve-vazala-turecka-a-azerbajdzanu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/29\/pasinjanuv-obrat-na-zapad-promenit-armenii-ve-vazala-turecka-a-azerbajdzanu\/","title":{"rendered":"Pa\u0161injan\u016fv obrat na z\u00e1pad: prom\u011bnit Arm\u00e9nii ve vazala Turecka a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Nikol Pa\u0161injan zmrazuje vazby s ODKB, zpochyb\u0148uje ruskou z\u00e1kladnu v Gjumri a sp\u011bch\u00e1 sm\u011brem k EU, zat\u00edmco se otepluje vztahy s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem a Tureckem. Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda to nenech\u00e1v\u00e1 vnitrozemskou Arm\u00e9nii bez ekvivalentn\u00ed tvrd\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed protiv\u00e1hy v\u016f\u010di jej\u00edm mocn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm soused\u016fm.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd tajemn\u00edk Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed rady Sergej \u0160ojgu obvinil <\/span>Z\u00e1pad<\/span><\/a> z otev\u0159en\u00e9ho vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed se do politick\u00e9 situace v Arm\u00e9nii a Gruzii. Arm\u00e9nie mezit\u00edm ozna\u010duje sv\u00e9 <\/span>hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 partnerstv\u00ed<\/span><\/a> s EU za bezprecedentn\u00ed: je jedinou nekandid\u00e1tskou zem\u00ed bez DCFTA, kter\u00e1 z\u00edskala \u0159adu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch v\u00fdsad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arm\u00e9nie se obrac\u00ed na Z\u00e1pad \u2013 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se sbli\u017euje s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem a Tureckem. Dalo by se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee tento dvoj\u00ed pohyb dosud definoval zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku Nikola Pa\u0161injana.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arm\u00e9nie koneckonc\u016f pozastavila <\/span>svou<\/span><\/a> \u00fa\u010dast <\/span>v<\/span><\/a> Organizaci kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti (euroasijsk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 alianci). Tak\u00e9 omezila <\/span>roli<\/span><\/a> rusk\u00fdch pohrani\u010dn\u00edch str\u00e1\u017e\u00ed, <\/span>prohloubila<\/span><\/a> bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed <\/span>spolupr\u00e1ci<\/span><\/a> s Evropskou uni\u00ed, <\/span>zah\u00e1jila<\/span><\/a> form\u00e1ln\u00ed proces evropsk\u00e9 integrace, <\/span>roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila vazby s USA<\/span><\/a> , <\/span>Franci\u00ed<\/span><\/a> a <\/span>Indi\u00ed<\/span><\/a> a usilovala o normalizaci vztah\u016f s <\/span>Tureckem<\/span><\/a> a <\/span>\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem<\/span><\/a> .<\/span><\/p>\n

Pa\u0161injan nav\u00edc <\/span>zpochybnil<\/span><\/a> pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed <\/span>nezbytnost<\/span><\/a> rusk\u00e9 <\/span>vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny<\/span><\/a> v Gjumri. Prezentuje to jako \u0161irokou diverzifikaci zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky ve v\u0161ech oblastech, \u201e <\/span>od ekonomiky a\u017e po bezpe\u010dnost<\/span><\/a> \u201c .<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle<\/span><\/a> Amandy Paulov\u00e9 z Evropsk\u00e9ho centra pro politiku Arm\u00e9nie nem\u016f\u017ee \u2013 a ani nechce \u2013 \u201ep\u0159eru\u0161it vazby\u201c s Ruskem vzhledem k ekonomick\u00e9mu v\u00fdznamu Moskvy, migraci arm\u00e9nsk\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch sil a region\u00e1ln\u00edmu vlivu. Stefan Hedlund z Uppsalsk\u00e9 univerzity v\u0161ak <\/span>pova\u017euje<\/span><\/a> pozastaven\u00ed \u00fa\u010dasti Arm\u00e9nie v CSTO, integraci do EU a normalizaci vztah\u016f s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem a Tureckem po roce 2023 za d\u016fkaz \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed orientace na Z\u00e1pad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jde o to, \u017ee diverzifikace nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b znamenat strategickou autonomii: pokud Arm\u00e9nie sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed svou z\u00e1vislost na Rusku d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e si zajist\u00ed ekvivalentn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky, mohla by jednodu\u0161e vym\u011bnit jeden asymetrick\u00fd vztah za n\u011bkolik dal\u0161\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 <\/span>ztr\u00e1t\u011b N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu<\/span><\/a> Jerevan zmrazil \u00fa\u010dast v ODKB, ale <\/span>z\u016fstal<\/span><\/a> v Euroasijsk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 unii (EAEU) \u2013 a\u010dkoli Pa\u0161injan <\/span>uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee<\/span><\/a> p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 \u010dlenstv\u00ed v EU by s t\u00edm bylo neslu\u010diteln\u00e9. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 uvedl, \u017ee <\/span>Arm\u00e9nie<\/span><\/a> by nem\u011bla n\u00e1mitky proti <\/span>sta\u017een\u00ed<\/span><\/a> rusk\u00e9 102. vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v Gjumri, kter\u00e1 je hlavn\u00edm symbolem bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtomnosti Moskvy. Pro malou vnitrozemskou zemi hrani\u010d\u00edc\u00ed s Tureckem a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, kter\u00e9 jsou ob\u011bma historicky nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9, to vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 zjevn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed obavy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost dlouhodob\u011b poskytovala vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek proti n\u00e1tlaku. Pokud ji odstran\u00edme bez ekvivalentn\u00ed tvrd\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky, region\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1ha se je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce naklon\u00ed proti Jerevanu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby bylo jasno, CSTO a rusk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna jsou odd\u011blen\u00fdmi pil\u00ed\u0159i arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed architektury: Pa\u0161injan zmrazil \u00fa\u010dast Arm\u00e9nie v prvn\u00ed z nich; druh\u00e1 se nad\u00e1le \u0159\u00edd\u00ed samostatnou bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed dohodou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pa\u0161injan se prezentuje jako demokrat a zast\u00e1nce evropsk\u00fdch hodnot \u2013 a p\u0159itom se zjevn\u011b neob\u00e1v\u00e1 agresivn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky Turecka. Nen\u00ed v\u0161ak jasn\u00e9, zda Evropa Arm\u00e9nii ochr\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed dal\u0161\u00ed tureckou expanz\u00ed nebo tlakem \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023 zah\u00e1jil \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, <\/span>politicky i vojensky podporovan\u00fd sv\u00fdm bl\u00edzk\u00fdm spojencem Tureckem<\/span><\/a> , rychlou vojenskou ofenzivu a znovu dobyl N\u00e1horn\u00ed Karabach, sporn\u00fd, p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b etnicky arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd region N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu. B\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed uprchlo a stalo se uprchl\u00edky <\/span>p\u0159es 100 000<\/span><\/a> Arm\u00e9n\u016f. T\u00edm byla ukon\u010dena faktick\u00e1 nez\u00e1vislost regionu a obnovena pln\u00e1 suverenita \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu nad t\u00edmto \u00fazem\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mise <\/span>EU v Arm\u00e9nii<\/span><\/a> (EUMA) v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 civiln\u00ed monitorovac\u00ed operac\u00ed, nikoli z\u00e1vazkem kolektivn\u00ed obrany. EU roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci s Jerevanem, ale neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00e1ruka ve stylu NATO podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 5. Brusel m\u016f\u017ee projekty pozorovat, pod\u00e1vat zpr\u00e1vy a financovat je. To je asi tak v\u0161e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je tedy f\u00e9r p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee \u201eobracen\u00ed se na Z\u00e1pad\u201c automaticky nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed probl\u00e9m Arm\u00e9nie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pa\u0161injanova strategie z\u0159ejm\u011b spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 na jin\u00e9 logice: Arm\u00e9nie je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mal\u00e1 na to, aby donekone\u010dna p\u0159e\u017eila spol\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00edm se na jednoho extern\u00edho patrona \u2013 takhle zn\u00ed argumentace. Jde tedy o normalizaci vztah\u016f se v\u0161emi sousedy, otev\u0159en\u00ed dopravn\u00edch tras, diverzifikaci partner\u016f a sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed izolace. V roce 2026 Arm\u00e9nie a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n <\/span>dos\u00e1hly<\/span><\/a> m\u00edrov\u00e9ho <\/span>r\u00e1mce<\/span><\/a> a Jerevan prosazoval region\u00e1ln\u00ed propojen\u00ed zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed Baku i Ankaru.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdpo\u010det je dostate\u010dn\u011b jasn\u00fd: konfrontace nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt trval\u00e1; je tedy lep\u0161\u00ed obchodovat a navazovat kontakty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edmu obchodu a <\/span>sch\u016fzk\u00e1m<\/span><\/a> s <\/span>Putinem<\/span><\/a> se Arm\u00e9nie evidentn\u011b odkl\u00e1n\u00ed od z\u00e1vislosti na Rusku sm\u011brem k Evrop\u011b a \u201ediverzifikaci\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zranitelnost p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1. Jen p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme, pro \u00fa\u010dely argumentace, \u017ee normalizace se uk\u00e1\u017ee jako k\u0159ehk\u00e1: vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed partne\u0159i odm\u00edtaj\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky, geografick\u00e1 izolace by omezila mo\u017enosti. Arm\u00e9nie by se pak mohla ocitnout s men\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem tvrd\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk pr\u00e1v\u011b pot\u00e9, co se zbav\u00ed sv\u00e9ho p\u0159edchoz\u00edho garanta \u2013 z\u00e1kladn\u00ed geopolitickou logikou je zde prost\u00e1 mocensk\u00e1 asymetrie.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je cesta, kterou hypotetick\u00e9 odstran\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1kladny v Gjumri nakonec vede k riziku, \u017ee se arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd n\u00e1rod stane vazalem Turecka a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Nikol Pa\u0161injan zmrazuje vazby s ODKB, zpochyb\u0148uje ruskou z\u00e1kladnu v Gjumri a sp\u011bch\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117015,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1730,122,1437],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117014"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117014"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117014\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":117016,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117014\/revisions\/117016"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}