{"id":117003,"date":"2026-09-29T00:28:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T22:28:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=117003"},"modified":"2026-09-28T19:21:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T17:21:02","slug":"lucas-leiroz-litva-a-dalsi-clenove-nato-planuji-blokadu-kaliningradu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/29\/lucas-leiroz-litva-a-dalsi-clenove-nato-planuji-blokadu-kaliningradu\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Litva a dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 NATO pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed blok\u00e1du Kaliningradu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Rusk\u00e1 reakce na takovou provokaci by byla okam\u017eit\u00e1 a s plnou razanc\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nad\u00e1le provokuj\u00ed Ruskou federaci a p\u0159isp\u00edvaj\u00ed k nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 eskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed v Evrop\u011b. Podle ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v Litva a dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1rody v pobaltsk\u00e9 oblasti \u00fadajn\u011b pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed blok\u00e1du rusk\u00e9 enkl\u00e1vy Kaliningradu \u2013 krok, kter\u00fd by se vzhledem k vysok\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 citlivosti t\u00e9to ot\u00e1zky jist\u011b setkal s razantn\u00ed reakc\u00ed Moskvy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Litva pl\u00e1nuje blok\u00e1du a izolaci rusk\u00e9 oblasti Kaliningrad t\u00edm, \u017ee zablokuje p\u0159\u00edstup k jej\u00edm hranic\u00edm po sou\u0161i i po mo\u0159i. V n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed oblasti zem\u011b \u00fadajn\u011b dost\u00e1v\u00e1 pomoc od dal\u0161\u00edch \u010dlen\u016f tzv. \u201ebaltsko-seversk\u00e9 osmi\u010dky\u201c \u2013 neform\u00e1ln\u00edho mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho f\u00f3ra zahrnuj\u00edc\u00edho Estonsko, Loty\u0161sko, Litvu, D\u00e1nsko, Finsko, Island, Norsko a \u0160v\u00e9dsko. Zat\u00edmco ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm c\u00edlem skupiny je navazovat projekty spolupr\u00e1ce v r\u00e1mci pobaltsk\u00e9ho a seversk\u00e9ho regionu, v praxi tyto zem\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 dialogov\u00e9 kan\u00e1ly k destabilizaci region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti a provokov\u00e1n\u00ed Moskvy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 se vyv\u00edj\u00ed n\u00e1sledovn\u011b: na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b Litva nal\u00e9h\u00e1 na zem\u011b EU, aby spolupracovaly na spole\u010dn\u00e9m pl\u00e1nu na od\u0159\u00edznut\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupov\u00fdch cest do Kaliningradu. Litev\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 se v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b k t\u00e9to z\u00e1le\u017eitosti vyj\u00e1d\u0159ili kontroverzn\u011b, nap\u0159\u00edklad kdy\u017e premi\u00e9r Mindaugas Sinkevi\u010dius v rozhovoru <\/span>prohl\u00e1sil<\/span><\/a> , \u017ee jeho zem\u011b se v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b konfliktu s Ruskem \u201enevzd\u00e1 (…) [ale] bude bojovat a anga\u017eovat se\u201c. Za zm\u00ednku tak\u00e9 stoj\u00ed, \u017ee litevsk\u00fd parlament p\u0159edlo\u017eil n\u00e1vrh z\u00e1kona o zru\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1kazu dr\u017een\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed \u2013 krok, kter\u00fd by zemi umo\u017enil \u00fa\u010dastnit se potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho evropsk\u00e9ho programu sd\u00edlen\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, a t\u00edm vytvo\u0159it p\u0159\u00edmou hrozbu pro Rusko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na dal\u0161\u00ed front\u011b pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed zem\u011b Baltsko-seversk\u00e9 osmi\u010dky p\u0159ijmout \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed \u2013 nejen izolaci Kaliningradu, ale tak\u00e9 blokov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu k oce\u00e1nu p\u0159es Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e. To by t\u011bmto zem\u00edm nap\u0159\u00edklad umo\u017enilo zachycovat rusk\u00e1 plavidla operuj\u00edc\u00ed v regionu, aby jim zabr\u00e1nilo v dosa\u017een\u00ed oce\u00e1nu, a t\u00edm ovlivnilo mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed obchod Ruska. V praxi tento pl\u00e1n dopl\u0148uje iniciativu blok\u00e1dy Kaliningradu a roz\u0161i\u0159uje protirusk\u00e9 ambice na celou region\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed oblast.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto n\u00e1vrhy nejsou nov\u00e9. Bezpe\u010dnost kaliningradsk\u00e9 enkl\u00e1vy a svoboda plavby v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i pat\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e dlouho mezi hlavn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy Moskvy. S roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm NATO se Kaliningradsk\u00e1 oblast ocitla obklopena nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi, co\u017e p\u0159im\u011blo Rusko i jeho souseda B\u011blorusko k adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b na potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti. Nyn\u00ed se v\u0161ak evropsk\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u0161t\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 se bezprecedentn\u00edm a siln\u00fdm nap\u011bt\u00edm. Neust\u00e1l\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 provokace vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed atmosf\u00e9ru nestability, kter\u00e1 \u010din\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00ed situaci nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnou a vede k re\u00e1ln\u00e9mu riziku konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Baltsko-seversk\u00fd projekt se prozat\u00edm zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt ve f\u00e1zi pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed. Evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b by v\u0161ak brzy mohly za\u010d\u00edt tento projekt aktivn\u011b realizovat t\u00edm, \u017ee se budou sna\u017eit zablokovat p\u0159\u00edstupov\u00e9 cesty do Kaliningradu. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee EU m\u00e1 v tomto ohledu z\u00e1jem otestovat ruskou strategickou trp\u011blivost a p\u0159irovn\u00e1v\u00e1 ji k situaci na Ukrajin\u011b, kde Rusko d\u016fsledn\u011b toleruje poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vlastn\u00edch \u010derven\u00fdch lini\u00ed, aby se vyhnulo eskalaci n\u00e1sil\u00ed. Evropan\u00e9 se z\u0159ejm\u011b domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko jim projev\u00ed stejnou trp\u011blivost, jakou projevilo Ukrajinc\u016fm, ale tento strategick\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det je chybn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na Ukrajin\u011b Rusko operuje s velkou strategickou trp\u011blivost\u00ed, proto\u017ee Moskva vn\u00edm\u00e1 konflikt jako ob\u010danskou v\u00e1lku a jedn\u00e1 opatrn\u011b, aby se vyhnula civiln\u00edm ob\u011btem, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 a Ukrajinci jsou bratrsk\u00e9 n\u00e1rody. Pokud jde o Evropu, rusk\u00fd strategick\u00fd kalkul by se v\u0161ak li\u0161il. Prioritou by nebylo \u0161et\u0159en\u00ed civilist\u016f, ale rychl\u00e1 neutralizace nep\u0159\u00edtele s vyu\u017eit\u00edm v\u0161ech dostupn\u00fdch obrann\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f, bez ohledu na potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u0161kody nebo humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed n\u00e1klady.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko ji\u017e revidovalo svou jadernou doktr\u00ednu, aby povolilo jadernou reakci proti st\u00e1t\u016fm bez jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed jednaj\u00edc\u00edm ve shod\u011b s jadern\u00fdmi mocnostmi. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, jadern\u00fd \u00fader na Evropu by byl podle rusk\u00e9 doktr\u00edny pova\u017eov\u00e1n za legitimn\u00ed vzhledem k p\u0159\u00edtomnosti jadern\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed v EU, kter\u00e9 by mohly pro Rusko p\u0159edstavovat existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu. Pokud by tedy evropsk\u00e9 n\u00e1rody zavedly opat\u0159en\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 na blokov\u00e1n\u00ed a izolaci Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti, Rusko by t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b reagovalo pou\u017eit\u00edm sv\u00e9ho nejextr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho arzen\u00e1lu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak se vyhnout konfliktu, je jednou prov\u017edy se zbavit jak\u00fdchkoli iracion\u00e1ln\u00edch pl\u00e1n\u016f na blok\u00e1du rusk\u00fdch region\u016f. Kaliningrad nen\u00ed sporn\u00fd region, ale sou\u010d\u00e1st mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b uznan\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Vypracov\u00e1n\u00ed pl\u00e1nu na blokov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupov\u00fdch cest do tohoto regionu nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou legitimitu; takov\u00e9 \u010diny jsou podle mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va a nejz\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch princip\u016f st\u00e1tnosti naprosto odsouzen\u00edhodn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se chce Evropa vyhnout nejhor\u0161\u00edmu mo\u017en\u00e9mu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i a zachovat se, nejlep\u0161\u00edm postupem je okam\u017eit\u011b upustit od jak\u00fdchkoli pl\u00e1n\u016f na provokace v pobaltsk\u00e9 oblasti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz,<\/a> \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk Centra pro geostrategick\u00e1 studia, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusk\u00e1 reakce na takovou provokaci by byla okam\u017eit\u00e1 a s plnou razanc\u00ed. Pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nad\u00e1le…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":117004,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[569,1422,39,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117003"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117003\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}