{"id":116319,"date":"2026-09-21T00:11:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-20T22:11:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=116319"},"modified":"2026-09-20T11:21:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-20T09:21:04","slug":"globalni-ropna-krize-rizikove-ctvrte-ctvrtleti-evropy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/21\/globalni-ropna-krize-rizikove-ctvrte-ctvrtleti-evropy\/","title":{"rendered":"Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ropn\u00e1 krize: Rizikov\u00e9 \u010dtvrt\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed Evropy"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh \u010del\u00ed masivn\u00edmu nedostatku nafty, zat\u00edmco v\u00fdpadky rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, naru\u0161en\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed trasy a zmen\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se z\u00e1soby vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00ed rezervy. Rusko, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd dodavatel, z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti ukon\u010dilo provoz; Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem proch\u00e1z\u00ed jen zlomek b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 lodn\u00ed dopravy; a dokonce i asijsk\u00e9 rafinerie nyn\u00ed dosahuj\u00ed rekordn\u00edch mar\u017e\u00ed. Evropu tato krize zasahuje s men\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem dom\u00e1c\u00edch rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1vislost\u00ed na dovozu a dal\u0161\u00edmi politick\u00fdmi p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekami \u2013 t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed za\u010d\u00e1tkem obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kritick\u00e9ho \u010dtvrt\u00e9ho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nafta udr\u017euje re\u00e1lnou ekonomiku v chodu. Na tomto palivu z\u00e1vis\u00ed n\u00e1kladn\u00ed automobily, skl\u00edzec\u00ed stroje, stavebn\u00ed stroje, doly a velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st glob\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1kladn\u00ed dopravy. Syst\u00e9m st\u00e1le funguje: \u010c\u00edna vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed v\u00edce paliva, Indie uvol\u0148uje v\u00fdvozn\u00ed omezen\u00ed, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie buduje nov\u00e9 dopravn\u00ed trasy a n\u011bkter\u00e1 skladovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed se v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b za\u010dala m\u00edrn\u011b dopl\u0148ovat. Rozd\u00edl v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 obrovsk\u00fd. Jen Rusku a st\u00e1t\u016fm Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu chyb\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00fanorem p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1,6 milionu barel\u016f nafty a plynov\u00e9ho oleje denn\u011b, zat\u00edmco z monitorovan\u00fdch z\u00e1sob ropy po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b bylo od \u00fanora vy\u010derp\u00e1no v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u016fl miliardy barel\u016f. \u010ctvrt\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 1. \u0159\u00edjna \u2013 a s n\u00edm se sou\u010dasn\u00e9 nedostatky shoduj\u00ed s dobou sklizn\u011b, \u00fadr\u017ebou rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed a za\u010d\u00e1tkem topn\u00e9 sez\u00f3ny. Skute\u010dn\u00e1 zkou\u0161ka pro trh s naftou teprve p\u0159ijde.<\/span><\/p>\n

Miliony barel\u016f chyb\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e1 agentura <\/span>odhaluje<\/span><\/a> hloubku probl\u00e9mu. V srpnu se \u010dist\u00fd v\u00fdvoz nafty a plynov\u00e9ho oleje z Ruska a st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu sn\u00ed\u017eil ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00fanorem p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 1,6 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. P\u0159ed eskalac\u00ed se tyto regiony pod\u00edlely na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 45 procentech sv\u011btov\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed nafty. Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b prudk\u00fd pokles zaznamenaly dod\u00e1vky z Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu: V srpnu klesl \u010dist\u00fd v\u00fdvoz pouze o zhruba 390 000 barel\u016f nafty a plynov\u00e9ho oleje denn\u011b \u2013 o n\u011bco v\u00edce ne\u017e \u010dtvrtinu p\u0159edchoz\u00edch objem\u016f. V\u00fdvoz rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f a zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu dohromady se ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00fanorem sn\u00ed\u017eil p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 3,7 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, tj. t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 60 procent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ani rafinerie nedoh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed. Celosv\u011btov\u011b se v srpnu zpracov\u00e1valo pr\u016fm\u011brn\u011b 81,4 milionu barel\u016f ropy denn\u011b. Navzdory vysok\u00fdm mar\u017e\u00edm to bylo o 4,2 milionu barel\u016f m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm roce. IEA o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 do roku 2026 celkov\u00fd pokles rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e9ho zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed o 2,6 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. \u00dazk\u00fdm hrdlem tedy nen\u00ed jen ropa: chyb\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kapacita a hotov\u00e9 v\u00fdrobky. V\u00edce ropy samo o sob\u011b je k ni\u010demu, pokud se z n\u00ed vyr\u00e1b\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo nafty. Ceny to brut\u00e1ln\u011b ilustruj\u00ed. Na za\u010d\u00e1tku z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed st\u00e1la nafta v USA do\u010dasn\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e 200 dolar\u016f za barel, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ceny v Evrop\u011b a Asii sotva klesly. Ropa sice m\u016f\u017ee zlevnit \u2013 ale dokud bude nafty nedostatek, tlak na ceny bude p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat. Je to srovnateln\u00e9 s obil\u00edm: bez ohledu na to, jak velk\u00e1 je \u00faroda, pokud nen\u00ed dostatek ml\u00fdn\u016f, mouka z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 drah\u00e1, stejn\u011b jako chl\u00e9b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sklady se vyprazd\u0148uj\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Podle IEA klesly glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1soby ropy od \u00fanora o 507 milion\u016f barel\u016f. V pr\u016fm\u011bru to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ze z\u00e1sob mizelo ka\u017ed\u00fd den asi 2,8 milionu barel\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jen v srpnu se ztratilo dal\u0161\u00edch 95 milion\u016f barel\u016f. Tyto rezervy zat\u00edm stabilizovaly trh: ka\u017ed\u00fd nov\u00fd nedostatek byl absorbov\u00e1n st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmi z\u00e1sobami, odklony a zv\u00fd\u0161enou produkc\u00ed rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed. Tato rezerva se v\u0161ak zmen\u0161uje a s ka\u017ed\u00fdm dal\u0161\u00edm m\u011bs\u00edcem roste riziko, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00fd nedostatek nebude tak snadno absorbov\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spole\u010dnosti Shell a Equinor v polovin\u011b z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tak\u00e9 <\/span>varovaly<\/span><\/a> , \u017ee st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u201etlumi\u010de n\u00e1raz\u016f\u201c energetick\u00e9ho trhu sl\u00e1bnou. Sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1sob, flexibiln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed toky a klesaj\u00edc\u00ed popt\u00e1vka nemohou donekone\u010dna absorbovat ka\u017ed\u00e9 nov\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed provozu. Trh je proto st\u00e1le v\u00edce z\u00e1visl\u00fd na prevenci dal\u0161\u00edch velk\u00fdch v\u00fdpadk\u016f rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, ropovod\u016f nebo kritick\u00fdch p\u0159epravn\u00edch tras.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko je venku<\/span><\/h3>\n

V roce 2025 bylo Rusko jedn\u00edm z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch dodavatel\u016f nafty. Podle \u00fadaj\u016f spole\u010dnosti Kpler<\/span><\/a> se vyv\u00e1\u017eelo v\u00edce ne\u017e 800 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b , co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje zhruba dvan\u00e1ct procent celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed naftou. Dnes z toho zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen zlomek. T\u0159i ze \u0161esti nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch rusk\u00fdch rafineri\u00ed nafty musely v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed drasticky sn\u00ed\u017eit nebo zcela zastavit v\u00fdrobu; t\u011bchto \u0161est z\u00e1vod\u016f dohromady vyr\u00e1b\u00ed zhruba polovinu rusk\u00e9 nafty. Kiri\u0161i byla do\u010dasn\u011b zcela uzav\u0159ena, zat\u00edmco Volgograd a NORSI fungovaly pouze na zhruba \u010dtvrtinu sv\u00e9 nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacity. Zasa\u017eeny byly i dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1vody. Podle IEA byla rusk\u00e1 rafinerie b\u011bhem prvn\u00edch osmi m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f leto\u0161n\u00edho roku v pr\u016fm\u011bru \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b napadena ka\u017ed\u00e9 t\u0159i dny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek nyn\u00ed ovliv\u0148uje i rusk\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed trh. Moskva omezila v\u00fdvoz nafty, benzinu a leteck\u00e9ho paliva, aby si zajistila vlastn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky; zva\u017euje se prodlou\u017een\u00ed t\u011bchto omezen\u00ed do konce \u0159\u00edjna. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed zimou glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh postr\u00e1d\u00e1 jednoho ze sv\u00fdch nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dodavatel\u016f. Donald Trump sice v polovin\u011b z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed hovo\u0159il o mo\u017en\u00e9m energetick\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou <\/span>,<\/span><\/a> ale i kdyby se udr\u017eelo, \u0161kody p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Mnoho \u00fatok\u016f zas\u00e1hlo kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 destila\u010dn\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ropy a hydrokrakovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nelze nahradit b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed. Sankce d\u00e1le br\u00e1n\u00ed Rusku v z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed specializovan\u00fdch technologi\u00ed a n\u00e1hradn\u00edch d\u00edl\u016f. Rusk\u00fd probl\u00e9m s rafinac\u00ed proto nezmiz\u00ed, ani kdyby z\u00edtra nedo\u0161lo k dal\u0161\u00edm \u00fatok\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 Asie se otepluje<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u010c\u00edna, Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea, Japonsko a dal\u0161\u00ed asijsk\u00e9 rafinerie nyn\u00ed vstupuj\u00ed do hry jako alternativn\u00ed dodavatel\u00e9. I tam se v\u0161ak objevuj\u00ed varovn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly. Rafin\u00e9rsk\u00e1 mar\u017ee pro n\u00edzkosirnou naftu v Asii <\/span>vzrostla<\/span><\/a> 16. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed na v\u00edce ne\u017e 87 dolar\u016f za barel \u2013 co\u017e je historick\u00e9 maximum. P\u0159ed sou\u010dasnou kriz\u00ed se pohybovala kolem 22 dolar\u016f. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh tak absorbuje prakticky ka\u017ed\u00fd dal\u0161\u00ed barel nafty a asijsk\u00e9 rafinerie odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem zvy\u0161uj\u00ed produkci a nyn\u00ed dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed z\u00e1silky a\u017e do Afriky. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 z\u00e1ruka, \u017ee pro \u0159\u00edjen z\u016fstanou k dispozici dostate\u010dn\u00e9 dodate\u010dn\u00e9 objemy spotov\u00e9 dod\u00e1vek.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna v tom hraje kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli. V srpnu zem\u011b <\/span>vyvezla<\/span><\/a> 1,33 milionu tun nafty, co\u017e je o 42,1 procenta v\u00edce ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm roce a nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed objem od b\u0159ezna 2024. Celkem bylo vyvezeno 6,01 milionu tun rafinovan\u00fdch paliv. Bez \u010c\u00edny by trh byl ji\u017e tak v\u00fdrazn\u011b napjat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ale i Peking jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zmen\u0161uje mezeru, kterou zanechalo Rusko a st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Vl\u00e1da nav\u00edc kontroluje v\u00fdvoz prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm st\u00e1tn\u00edch kv\u00f3t. Pokud Peking tyto kv\u00f3ty znovu zp\u0159\u00edsn\u00ed, dopady se rychle projev\u00ed na cel\u00e9m glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysok\u00fdch mar\u017e\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 i Indie. V polovin\u011b z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed Nov\u00e9 Dill\u00ed <\/span>sn\u00ed\u017eilo<\/span><\/a> zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed clo na v\u00fdvoz nafty z 25 na 20 rupi\u00ed za litr; sn\u00ed\u017eena byla i cla na benzin a leteck\u00e9 palivo. To \u010din\u00ed v\u00fdvoz atraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed na sv\u011btov\u00fd trh dodate\u010dn\u00e1 mno\u017estv\u00ed. A pr\u00e1v\u011b takov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed reakce v sou\u010dasnosti dr\u017e\u00ed syst\u00e9m pohromad\u011b. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se ji\u017e za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 projevovat i druh\u00e1 strana. Ghansk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed obchodn\u00edk s palivy BOST <\/span>sn\u00ed\u017eil<\/span><\/a> dod\u00e1vky nafty a benzinu do Burkiny Faso a Mali, aby ochr\u00e1nil dom\u00e1c\u00ed dod\u00e1vky. Burkina Faso v \u010dervenci a srpnu obdr\u017eela pouze zhruba polovinu z po\u017eadovan\u00fdch 80 000 tun a Mali tak\u00e9 obdr\u017eelo v\u00fdrazn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b, ne\u017e bylo objedn\u00e1no. Jakmile si v\u00edce zem\u00ed ochr\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed trhy, dodate\u010dn\u00e1 mno\u017estv\u00ed z voln\u00e9ho obchodu zmiz\u00ed. Pak i vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cena pom\u016f\u017ee jen omezen\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie stav\u00ed obj\u00ed\u017e\u010fky<\/span><\/h3>\n

Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie se tak\u00e9 <\/span>sna\u017e\u00ed<\/span><\/a> znovu zv\u00fd\u0161it sv\u016fj export. Spole\u010dnost Aramco pl\u00e1nuje v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a \u0159\u00edjnu p\u0159epravit p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 60 milion\u016f barel\u016f ropy p\u0159es Ras Tanura a n\u00e1sledn\u011b z lodi na lo\u010f u pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Soh\u00e1ru v Om\u00e1nu. To by mohlo na sv\u011btov\u00fd trh p\u0159in\u00e9st dal\u0161\u00edch 1 a\u017e 1,5 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. Tyto nov\u00e9 trasy ji\u017e vyv\u00edjej\u00ed tlak na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed cen ropy; ropa Brent 18. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed klesla zp\u011bt na 100 dolar\u016f. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se z\u00e1soby ropy v USA, Evrop\u011b a Singapuru ned\u00e1vno zv\u00fd\u0161ily celkem o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3,7 milionu barel\u016f. To tlak \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zm\u00edr\u0148uje \u2013 situace v\u0161ak zdaleka nen\u00ed vy\u0159e\u0161ena. <\/span>Podle p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f spole\u010dnosti Kpler<\/span><\/a> propluly ve \u010dtvrtek Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem pouze \u010dty\u0159i n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lod\u011b. Desetidenn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br byl kolem 16. P\u0159ed kriz\u00ed proplula Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem zhruba p\u011btina sv\u011btov\u00e9 spot\u0159eby ropy a plynu. Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ropn\u00e1 trasa st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nad\u00e1le funguje jen na zlomek sv\u00e9 d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kapacity.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna se nyn\u00ed <\/span>sna\u017e\u00ed<\/span><\/a> vyu\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9ho vlivu na Teher\u00e1n. Peking ned\u00e1vno mimo jin\u00e9 vyvinul tlak na \u00cdr\u00e1n, aby na sv\u00e9 spojence H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f vyv\u00edjel um\u00edrn\u011bn\u00fd vliv. \u010c\u00edna i \u00cdr\u00e1n jsou \u010dleny zem\u00ed BRICS a Peking je tak\u00e9 jedn\u00edm z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch partner\u016f Teher\u00e1nu. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 proto siln\u00fd z\u00e1jem na obnoven\u00ed energetick\u00fdch a obchodn\u00edch tras v regionu. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd tlak v\u0161ak nenahrad\u00ed funguj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed trasy. Konflikty v Persk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu a Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i jsou vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojen\u00e9 a Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 hluboko pod b\u011b\u017enou \u00farovn\u00ed dopravy. Rychl\u00fd n\u00e1vrat k podm\u00ednk\u00e1m p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed by proto byl extr\u00e9mn\u011b optimistick\u00fd. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 prudce vzrostly n\u00e1klady na p\u0159epravu. Supertankery jsou vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 a drah\u00e9, obj\u00ed\u017e\u010fky trvaj\u00ed d\u00e9le a poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed zvy\u0161uje n\u00e1klady na ka\u017edou plavbu. U\u017e nesta\u010d\u00ed jen n\u011bkde vyrobit naftu; mus\u00ed se tak\u00e9 dostat do c\u00edle.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na hranici sv\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

USA se staly jedn\u00edm z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dodavatel\u016f na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh s ropou, ale i tam z\u00e1soby klesaj\u00ed. V t\u00fddnu kon\u010d\u00edc\u00edm 11. z\u00e1\u0159\u00edm americk\u00e9 rafinerie <\/span>zpracovaly<\/span><\/a> p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 17,3 milionu barel\u016f ropy denn\u011b. Vyu\u017eit\u00ed kapacity bylo kolem 97 procent \u2013 \u200b\u200btak\u017ee zb\u00fdvalo jen m\u00e1lo rezerv. Zat\u00edmco z\u00e1soby destil\u00e1t\u016f v USA ned\u00e1vno vzrostly na 107,9 milionu barel\u016f, z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed o 13 procent pod p\u011btilet\u00fdm sez\u00f3nn\u00edm pr\u016fm\u011brem. Z\u00e1soby jsou obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9 na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed tak\u00e9 za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 sez\u00f3na \u00fadr\u017eby. Po m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch vysok\u00e9 letn\u00ed aktivity mus\u00ed rafinerie odstavovat a opravovat za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, zat\u00edmco zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed b\u011bhem sklizn\u011b vy\u017eaduje velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed nafty. K tomu se p\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed <\/span>nepl\u00e1novan\u00e9 odst\u00e1vky<\/span><\/a> : Rafinerie Joliet spole\u010dnosti ExxonMobil s kapacitou 275 000 barel\u016f denn\u011b byla odstavena kv\u016fli probl\u00e9m\u016fm s proudem a z\u00e1plav\u00e1m. Z\u00e1vod obvykle vyr\u00e1b\u00ed pro St\u0159edoz\u00e1pad p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b jeden\u00e1ct milion\u016f galon\u016f benzinu a nafty denn\u011b. Na norm\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu by se jednalo o region\u00e1ln\u00ed anom\u00e1lii. Na napjat\u00e9m trhu s naftou se v\u0161ak po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00fd v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpadek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa je v\u00edce z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Evropa vstupuje do t\u00e9to krize s v\u00fdrazn\u011b men\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed rafin\u00e9rskou kapacitou ne\u017e p\u0159ed deseti a p\u016fl lety. Podle <\/span>FuelsEurope<\/span><\/a> bylo od roku 2009 uzav\u0159eno 35 rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, co\u017e sn\u00ed\u017eilo evropskou kapacitu p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 20 procent. Svou roli sehr\u00e1la st\u00e1rnouc\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, klesaj\u00edc\u00ed popt\u00e1vka a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed konkurence; odv\u011btv\u00ed tak\u00e9 poukazuje na vysok\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na energii, emise CO2 a regulaci. D\u016fsledek je jednoduch\u00fd: Evropa produkuje m\u00e9n\u011b doma a mus\u00ed v\u00edce dov\u00e1\u017eet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 EU v r\u00e1mci sankc\u00ed proti Rusku uzav\u0159ela dal\u0161\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 trasy. <\/span>18. bal\u00ed\u010dek sankc\u00ed<\/span><\/a> zak\u00e1zal dovoz ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f ze t\u0159et\u00edch zem\u00ed, pokud byly vyrobeny z rusk\u00e9 ropy; n\u011bkter\u00e9 partnersk\u00e9 zem\u011b jsou z n\u011bj vy\u0148aty. EU se t\u00edmto opat\u0159en\u00edm sna\u017e\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eit rusk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edjmy. T\u00edm se tak\u00e9 eliminuje \u010d\u00e1st potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f pro Evropu. Evropa tak ztratila rafin\u00e9rskou kapacitu a d\u00e1le omezila dovozn\u00ed trasy. Nyn\u00ed kontinent sout\u011b\u017e\u00ed s dal\u0161\u00edmi regiony o naftu z USA, Indie, \u010c\u00edny a zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch exportn\u00edch center. Dokud je produktu dostatek, v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cena. Kdy\u017e je j\u00ed m\u00e1lo, v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed ten, komu je d\u00edky dobr\u00fdm vztah\u016fm v\u016fbec je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bco dod\u00e1v\u00e1no.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysok\u00e9 ceny sni\u017euj\u00ed spot\u0159ebu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Nedostatek nyn\u00ed ovliv\u0148uje popt\u00e1vku. IEA o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed spot\u0159eba ropy v roce 2026 klesne o 2,5 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b. Ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee spot\u0159eba bude o dva miliony barel\u016f denn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v p\u0159edchoz\u00edm roce. Trh se tak nut\u00ed k utahov\u00e1n\u00ed: spole\u010dnosti omezuj\u00ed svou \u010dinnost, doprava se prodra\u017euje, projekty se odkl\u00e1daj\u00ed a spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 omezuj\u00ed spot\u0159ebu. Popt\u00e1vka kles\u00e1, proto\u017ee nafta se prodra\u017euje a ekonomick\u00e1 aktivita se zpomaluje.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160ok se nekon\u010d\u00ed u benz\u00ednov\u00fdch pump. Nafta poh\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1kladn\u00ed automobily, traktory, skl\u00edzec\u00ed stroje, bagry, gener\u00e1tory a \u010d\u00e1sti lodn\u00edho pr\u016fmyslu. Topn\u00fd olej tak\u00e9 sout\u011b\u017e\u00ed o stejn\u00e9 st\u0159edn\u00ed destil\u00e1ty z rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed. To, co za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 naftou, se pozd\u011bji pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 v n\u00e1kladn\u00ed doprav\u011b, potravin\u00e1ch, stavebn\u00edch materi\u00e1lech, surovin\u00e1ch a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9m zbo\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro \u010dtvrt\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Situace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 rozporupln\u00e1. \u010c\u00edna v\u00edce exportuje, Indie uvol\u0148uje sv\u00e1 cla, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie buduje obj\u00edzdn\u00e9 trasy a n\u011bkter\u00e9 sklady op\u011bt rostou. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 je po\u0161kozen\u00ed rusk\u00fdch rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9, doprava p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00fdrazn\u011b omezen\u00e1 a mar\u017ee z nafty v Asii jsou na rekordn\u00ed \u00farovni. Objevuj\u00ed se t\u0159i mo\u017en\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e pro obdob\u00ed od \u0159\u00edjna do prosince. Procenta jsou analytick\u00fdm hodnocen\u00edm zalo\u017een\u00fdm na datech z 18. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

55 procent: Nedostatek p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1<\/span><\/h4>\n

Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je trh, kter\u00fd z\u016fstane napjat\u00fd po cel\u00e9 m\u011bs\u00edce, ani\u017e by do\u0161lo k rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9mu kolapsu. \u010c\u00edna si udr\u017euje vysokou \u00farove\u0148 exportu, Indie vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 sv\u00fdch obrovsk\u00fdch mar\u017e\u00ed, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed na trh dal\u0161\u00ed objemy a USA nad\u00e1le v\u00fdrazn\u011b dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed. To sta\u010d\u00ed k zapln\u011bn\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch mezer. To v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee se situace uvoln\u00ed: z\u00e1soby z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00e9, v\u00fdpadky rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed okam\u017eit\u011b zvy\u0161uj\u00ed ceny a Evropa mus\u00ed platit v\u00edce, aby p\u0159il\u00e1kala tankery. Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 neust\u00e1l\u00fdm rizikem. I \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 zlep\u0161en\u00ed lodn\u00ed dopravy by mohlo pomoci, ale rychl\u00fd n\u00e1vrat k \u00farovni p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed se vzhledem k sou\u010dasn\u00fdm trend\u016fm st\u011b\u017e\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1. Syst\u00e9m se dr\u017e\u00ed \u2013 draze a s neust\u00e1le se zmen\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edmi z\u00e1sobami.<\/span><\/p>\n

30 procent: Krize se stup\u0148uje<\/span><\/h4>\n

K tomu, aby se to stalo, nemus\u00ed se st\u00e1t mnoho v\u011bc\u00ed najednou. Rusk\u00e9 rafinerie z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed d\u00e9le mimo provoz, energetick\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed se hrout\u00ed, doprava p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00edzk\u00e1 nebo d\u00e1le kles\u00e1, americk\u00e9 rafinerie proch\u00e1zej\u00ed v\u00edce \u00fadr\u017ebou, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, a brzk\u00e1 studen\u00e1 zima d\u00e1le sni\u017euje dod\u00e1vky topn\u00e9ho oleje. Pak by ostatn\u00ed zem\u011b mohly omezit export a chr\u00e1nit si vlastn\u00ed trhy. Od tohoto okam\u017eiku u\u017e hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem nen\u00ed cena, ale kdo se k tomuto zbo\u017e\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b dostane. Evropa by byla v takov\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzov\u00e9 reakci obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b zraniteln\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

15 procent: Situace se znateln\u011b uklid\u0148uje<\/span><\/h4>\n

Deeskalace je st\u00e1le mo\u017en\u00e1, ale bylo by zapot\u0159eb\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e jen n\u011bkolik dal\u0161\u00edch tanker\u016f a zlep\u0161en\u00ed skladovac\u00edch kapacit. Provoz p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv by se musel na n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it, st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu by musely vyv\u00e1\u017eet nejen v\u00edce ropy, ale tak\u00e9 podstatn\u011b v\u00edce nafty a dal\u0161\u00edch rafinovan\u00fdch produkt\u016f, \u010c\u00edna a Indie by si musely udr\u017eet vysokou \u00farove\u0148 exportu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 by nemohly b\u00fdt uzav\u0159eny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nov\u00e9 velk\u00e9 rafinerie. \u010c\u00edna diplomaticky prosazuje uklidn\u011bn\u00ed situace a m\u00e1 na \u00cdr\u00e1n zna\u010dn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd vliv. Peking v\u0161ak nem\u016f\u017ee ukon\u010dit konflikty v regionu dekretem ani znovu otev\u0159\u00edt samotn\u00fd Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. I s politick\u00fdm sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00edm pot\u0159ebuje fyzick\u00fd trh \u010das: tankery je nutn\u00e9 p\u0159em\u00edstit, rafinerie opravit a vy\u010derpan\u00e1 skladovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed znovu naplnit. Rychl\u00fd n\u00e1vrat ke star\u00e9mu norm\u00e1lu je proto nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0158\u00edjen bude t\u011b\u017ekou zkou\u0161kou<\/span><\/h3>\n

\u0158\u00edjen v sob\u011b snoub\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echna rizika. Rusko je st\u00e1le oslaben\u00e9, americk\u00e9 rafinerie proch\u00e1zej\u00ed \u00fadr\u017ebou, Severn\u00ed Amerika skl\u00edz\u00ed \u00farodu, Ji\u017en\u00ed Amerika za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 setbou a popt\u00e1vka po topn\u00e9m oleji roste. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u010c\u00edna, Indie a dal\u0161\u00ed asijsk\u00e9 rafinerie mus\u00ed i nad\u00e1le dod\u00e1vat obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed. To v\u0161e zast\u0159e\u0161uje Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv. Dokud tam bude fungovat jen zlomek b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 lodn\u00ed dopravy, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek energie z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 zraniteln\u00e1. Jednotliv\u00e9 odklony probl\u00e9m zm\u00edr\u0148uj\u00ed, ale tuto trasu nenahrazuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Listopad uk\u00e1\u017ee, zda trh bou\u0159i p\u0159e\u017eije. Pokud se v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoz produkt\u016f ze st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, doprava p\u0159es Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv se udr\u017eiteln\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed a \u010c\u00edna si udr\u017e\u00ed vysokou \u00farove\u0148 v\u00fdvozu, tlak by se mohl postupn\u011b zm\u00edrnit. Pokud se dva z t\u011bchto faktor\u016f nenapln\u00ed, severn\u00ed polokoule vstoup\u00ed do zimy s vy\u010derpan\u00fdmi z\u00e1sobami a rafin\u00e9rsk\u00fdm syst\u00e9mem pracuj\u00edc\u00edm t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 na pln\u00e9 obr\u00e1tky. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee ropa Brent 18. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed klesla zp\u011bt na 100 dolar\u016f, proto nenab\u00edz\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. Rafina\u010dn\u00ed mar\u017ee nafty v Asii jsou nad 87 dolary za barel. Na trh se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 o n\u011bco v\u00edce ropy \u2013 ale nedostatek nafty p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prozat\u00edm m\u016f\u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh naj\u00edt n\u00e1hradu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ude. Sklad se vypr\u00e1zdn\u00ed, rafinerie zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed produkci, tanker se p\u0159esm\u011bruje. \u010c\u00edna v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee vyv\u00edjet tlak na Teher\u00e1n, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie m\u016f\u017ee naj\u00edt nov\u00e9 trasy a obchodn\u00edci mohou odkl\u00e1n\u011bt tankery \u2013 nikdo v\u0161ak nedok\u00e1\u017ee magicky vr\u00e1tit miliony ztracen\u00fdch barel\u016f. \u010ctvrt\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed uk\u00e1\u017ee, jak dlouho tato improvizace vydr\u017e\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh \u010del\u00ed masivn\u00edmu nedostatku nafty, zat\u00edmco v\u00fdpadky rafin\u00e9ri\u00ed, naru\u0161en\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed trasy a zmen\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":116320,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[371,310,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116319"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116319\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}