{"id":116139,"date":"2026-09-18T00:30:26","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T22:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=116139"},"modified":"2026-09-17T16:21:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T14:21:08","slug":"serge-savigny-jsou-hutiove-schopni-blokovat-rude-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/18\/serge-savigny-jsou-hutiove-schopni-blokovat-rude-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Serge Savigny: Jsou H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 schopni blokovat Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 b\u011bhem minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne z\u00edskali kontrolu nad cel\u00fdm jemensk\u00fdm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00edm Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a hroz\u00ed uzav\u0159en\u00edm \u00fa\u017einy Bab al-Mandeb. Proch\u00e1z\u00ed j\u00ed a\u017e 12 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho obchodu a 7 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch dod\u00e1vek ropy.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pokud by \u00cdr\u00e1n a H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u011b zablokovali Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a B\u00e1b-el-Mandebsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, mohlo by to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u011b zastavit v\u00fdvoz ropy ze st\u00e1t\u016f Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. To by n\u00e1sledn\u011b vedlo k prudk\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen ropy, benz\u00ednu a leteck\u00e9ho paliva. Pro\u010d nemohou zem\u011b regionu H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 zastavit a zas\u00e1hnou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 B\u00e1b al-Mand\u00e9b?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

10. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 dobyli strategick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav Mocha. T\u00edmto zp\u016fsobem hnut\u00ed p\u0159evzalo kontrolu nad v\u0161emi pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edmi silnicemi a z\u00e1sobovac\u00edmi trasami, v\u010detn\u011b osy Mocha-Taiz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hned n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed den, jak informovala\u00a0<\/span>agentura Reuters ,\u00a0<\/span><\/em>vstoupili<\/span><\/a>\u00a0H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9\u00a0do m\u011bsta Dhubab. Nach\u00e1z\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edmo na b\u0159ehu \u00fa\u017einy Bab-el-Mandeb, naproti ostrovu Perim (Mayyun). Ostrov le\u017e\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3,5 km od jemensk\u00e9ho pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed a rozd\u011bluje \u00fa\u017einu na dva splavn\u00e9 pr\u016flivy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u011b dobyli Dhubab a ostrov Perim, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee de facto z\u00edskali kontrolu nad cel\u00fdm pr\u016flivem, uv\u00e1d\u00ed m\u00e9dia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak reaguje olej?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dne 8. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed drony zas\u00e1hly hlavn\u00ed ropovod kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed, kter\u00fd spojuje v\u00fdchod a z\u00e1pad, co\u017e je 1 200 km dlouh\u00e1 tepna spojuj\u00edc\u00ed ropn\u00e9 pole Abqaiq s rudomo\u0159sk\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edstavem Yanbu. Odtud lze ropu p\u0159epravovat po mo\u0159i, obch\u00e1zen\u00edm Basrsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu. Po \u00faderech\u00a0<\/span>byl Rij\u00e1d nucen<\/span><\/a>\u00a0zcela zastavit \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00edmto ropovodem, kter\u00fdm se obvykle p\u0159epravovalo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 4 a\u017e 5 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje 4 a\u017e 5 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 produkce.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle ir\u00e1ck\u00fdch a sa\u00fadsk\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f byl \u00fatok zah\u00e1jen z ir\u00e1ck\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Zat\u00edm se k \u00fatoku nep\u0159ihl\u00e1sila \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed skupina. Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump 12. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee za \u00fatokem pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b stoj\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n, ale zat\u00edm neposkytl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ceny ropy\u00a0<\/span>reagovaly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0prudk\u00fdm r\u016fstem: 9. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed ropa Brent kr\u00e1tce dos\u00e1hla 100,95 dolar\u016f za barel, co\u017e je \u00farove\u0148, kter\u00e1 nebyla zaznamen\u00e1na od \u010dervence, kdy H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 za\u00fato\u010dili na lod\u011b v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i. Ropa WTI dos\u00e1hla 95,60 dolar\u016f.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u00e9, co H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 dobyli Mochu a postupovali sm\u011brem k Bab-el-Mandebu, ropa Brent vystoupala na 108 dolar\u016f za barel. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, za pouh\u00e9 \u010dty\u0159i dny cena vzrostla o 8 %.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pom\u016f\u017ee Trump zastavit H\u00fat\u00edy?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jak uv\u00e1d\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>Axios<\/span><\/em>\u00a0, sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady v \u010dervenci\u00a0<\/span>ujistily<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Washington, \u017ee se s hrozbami H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f vypo\u0159\u00e1daj\u00ed samy. Korunn\u00ed princ Muhammad bin Salm\u00e1n \u00fadajn\u011b po\u017e\u00e1dal Trumpa pouze o politickou podporu pro \u00fatok na leti\u0161t\u011b v San\u00e1 a zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 pomoc Rij\u00e1du nen\u00ed nutn\u00e1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, kdy\u017e H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 dobyli Mochu, sa\u00fadsk\u00fd v\u016fdce \u00fadajn\u011b dvakr\u00e1t po\u017e\u00e1dal americk\u00e9ho prezidenta o \u00fatok na H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 a byl dvakr\u00e1t odm\u00edtnut, tvrd\u00ed m\u00e9dia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u010der 12. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>CNN<\/span><\/em>\u00a0informovala, \u017ee Trump\u00a0<\/span>na\u0159\u00eddil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vysl\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 100 vojensk\u00fdch poradc\u016f do Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie. To v\u0161ak nenazna\u010dovalo p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd z\u00e1sah Washingtonu do konfliktu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro\u010d Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty do konfliktu nezasahuj\u00ed?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Vojensk\u00e1 konfrontace s Jemenci by fakticky znamenala konec dohody, kterou obyvatel B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu s hnut\u00edm uzav\u0159el loni. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty tehdy sl\u00edbily, \u017ee p\u0159estanou \u00fato\u010dit na pozice H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f v\u00fdm\u011bnou za zastaven\u00ed \u00fatok\u016f na lodn\u00ed dopravu v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i. Pokud Washington toto p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed poru\u0161\u00ed, H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 by mohli znovu\u00a0<\/span>za\u00fato\u010dit na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ve vod\u00e1ch regionu, informuje agentura\u00a0<\/span>Reuters<\/span><\/em>\u00a0.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpovo odm\u00edtnut\u00ed je z\u0159ejm\u011b diktov\u00e1no snahou vyhnout se dal\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 eskalaci. Washington se chce i nad\u00e1le prim\u00e1rn\u011b zam\u011b\u0159ovat na \u00cdr\u00e1n a Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e otev\u00edrat n\u00e1kladnou novou frontu v Jemenu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edchoz\u00ed americk\u00e9 kampan\u011b proti H\u00fat\u00ed\u016fm uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee leteck\u00e9 \u00fatoky mohou hnut\u00ed oslabit, ale jen z\u0159\u00eddka ho zcela zbav\u00ed jeho vojensk\u00e9ho potenci\u00e1lu. Nav\u00edc takov\u00e9 akce mohou vyvolat dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fatoky proti Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu spole\u010denstv\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm aspektem, kter\u00fd je t\u0159eba zm\u00ednit, je, \u017ee p\u0159ed volbami v polovin\u011b volebn\u00edho obdob\u00ed ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech m\u00e1 Washington mal\u00fd z\u00e1jem o zapojen\u00ed se do nov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kampan\u011b s nejist\u00fdmi vyhl\u00eddkami a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b vysok\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Trumpov\u00fdm hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem je dnes pokusit se dokon\u010dit alespo\u0148 n\u011bkter\u00e9 konflikty, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e za\u010daly za jeho vl\u00e1dy, a prezentovat dosa\u017een\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky americk\u00e9mu publiku jako politick\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Jsou H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 schopni blokovat Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kontrola nad Mochou, p\u0159ilehl\u00fdmi pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edmi oblastmi a ostrovy Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e v\u00fdznamn\u011b m\u011bn\u00ed situaci na m\u00edst\u011b. \u00dazem\u00ed v bl\u00edzkosti pr\u016flivu nab\u00edz\u00ed trvalou p\u0159\u00edtomnost, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 mo\u017enost zopakovat \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch s Hormuzsk\u00fdm pr\u016flivem a vyb\u00edrat tranzitn\u00ed poplatky.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edstup k Bab-el-Mandebu nav\u00edc znamen\u00e1, \u017ee povstalci ji\u017e nemus\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvat k bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed lod\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 st\u0159ely dlouh\u00e9ho doletu ani komplexn\u00ed protilodn\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely, jak to d\u011blali d\u0159\u00edve.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Je v\u0161ak nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 byli schopni tuto vodn\u00ed cestu zcela a trvale uzav\u0159\u00edt. Nav\u00edc nemus\u00ed zastavit ka\u017edou jednotlivou lo\u010f. Rakety, drony, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed miny a v\u011brohodn\u00e1 hrozba \u00fatok\u016f sta\u010d\u00ed k tomu, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ily n\u00e1klady na poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a donutily p\u0159epravn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti p\u0159esm\u011brovat sv\u00e9 trasy kolem Afriky, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by vytvo\u0159ily \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dnou blok\u00e1du.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by naru\u0161en\u00ed dopravy sou\u010dasn\u011b ovlivnilo dva strategick\u00e9 pr\u016fsmyky, Hormuzsk\u00fd a B\u00e1b-el-Mandeb, a p\u0159etrv\u00e1valo by, region\u00e1ln\u00ed krize by se mohla prom\u011bnit v z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00fd a infla\u010dn\u00ed \u0161ok.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

AKTUALIZACE:<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Jemen\u0161t\u00ed H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 p\u0159evzali kontrolu nad nov\u00fdmi ostrovy v ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, uvedli v pond\u011bl\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed a h\u00fat\u00edj\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9, \u010d\u00edm\u017e pos\u00edlili sv\u016fj vliv na d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed obchodn\u00ed trase.<\/span>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dobyt\u00ed ostrov\u016f Velk\u00fd a Mal\u00fd Hani\u0161 p\u0159edstavuje nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed krok v rychl\u00e9m postupu skupiny kolem \u00fa\u017einy Bab el-Mandeb, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 trasy pro p\u0159epravu ropy, kter\u00e1 se stala je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed b\u011bhem \u00edr\u00e1nsko-americk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, zat\u00edmco Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pod americkou a \u00edr\u00e1nskou blok\u00e1dou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Serge Savigny<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 b\u011bhem minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne z\u00edskali kontrolu nad cel\u00fdm jemensk\u00fdm pob\u0159e\u017e\u00edm Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a hroz\u00ed uzav\u0159en\u00edm…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":116140,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1974,9042,6329],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116139"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116139\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116140"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}