{"id":116019,"date":"2026-09-17T00:18:53","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T22:18:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=116019"},"modified":"2026-09-16T09:17:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T07:17:14","slug":"hasimovsky-konec-pripad-jordanska-jako-dalsiho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/17\/hasimovsky-konec-pripad-jordanska-jako-dalsiho\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00e1\u0161imovsk\u00fd konec: P\u0159\u00edpad Jord\u00e1nska jako dal\u0161\u00edho"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dev\u011bt t\u00fddn\u016f p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 ohromili region \u00fat\u011bkem ze sv\u00fdch severn\u00edch pevnost\u00ed, Karl Miller p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee se tak stane. V soukrom\u00e9m dopise ze dne 1. \u010dervence tvrdil, \u017ee Mohammed bin Salm\u00e1n hraje svou zn\u00e1mou hru vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed moci \u2013 umis\u0165uje operace pod\u00e9l sv\u00e9 periferie, aby \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Turecku a Ir\u00e1ku zabr\u00e1nil v jak\u00e9mkoli dal\u0161\u00edm vlivu, v\u010detn\u011b vlivu H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f \u2013 a z tohoto p\u0159edpokladu odvodil dv\u011b konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi: \u017ee H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 by vnikli na \u00fazem\u00ed ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9 rebely na jihu, pokud by jim chaos dal p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost, a \u017ee frakce podporovan\u00e9 SAE a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se proti nim stav\u00ed, jsou dezorganizovan\u00e9. Oboj\u00ed se naplnilo. V z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 postoupili na Mokhu, dobyli ostrov Perim a dos\u00e1hli pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Bab al-Mandab, kdy\u017e se koali\u010dn\u00ed linie v pou\u0161ti rozpadala. Byla to dob\u0159e podlo\u017een\u00e1 p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f zalo\u017een\u00e1 na mechanismech, a ne \u00fadajn\u00fd trefn\u00fd ter\u010d \u2013 ale rozpoznal otev\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed se p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e se skute\u010dn\u011b naskytla.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1m t\u00edm, proto\u017ee Miller nyn\u00ed aplikoval stejnou analytickou perspektivu na Jord\u00e1nsko a jeho z\u00e1v\u011br je jednozna\u010dn\u00fd: h\u00e1\u0161imovsk\u00e1 monarchie \u010del\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9mu kolapsu a konci kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce. Jeho nov\u00e1 soukrom\u00e1 progn\u00f3za ze 14. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se zam\u011b\u0159uje na obdob\u00ed do z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2027, nen\u00ed povrchn\u00edm cvi\u010den\u00edm think-tanku. Je to briefing o kontinuit\u011b sestaven\u00fd pro m\u00edstn\u00ed akt\u00e9ry a jeho argument si zaslou\u017e\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 zv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed \u2013 s p\u0159ihl\u00e9dnut\u00edm k jeho v\u00fdhrad\u00e1m. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm bodem t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edm se historick\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobnosti se budu zab\u00fdvat na konci.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Teze<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Millerova p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f se op\u00edr\u00e1 o t\u0159i vz\u00e1jemn\u011b propojen\u00e9 p\u0159edpoklady: \u017ee v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 americk\u00e1 ochrana se stane nespolehlivou pr\u00e1v\u011b ve chv\u00edli, kdy ji pal\u00e1c bude pot\u0159ebovat; \u017ee organizovan\u00e1 dom\u00e1c\u00ed opozice se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed za \u00farove\u0148, kterou lze st\u00e1le omezit \u00fastupky nebo n\u00e1tlakem; a \u017ee loajalita velitel\u016f a instituc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b zaji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed vymahatelnost kr\u00e1lovsk\u00fdch rozhodnut\u00ed, se nakonec zhrout\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e tyto t\u0159i faktory spoj\u00ed, vid\u00ed sled kolaps\u016f, kter\u00fd se odv\u00edj\u00ed n\u00e1sledovn\u011b: vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ochrana ztr\u00e1c\u00ed svou d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost, opozice roste, opat\u0159en\u00ed na uklidn\u011bn\u00ed selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed, velitel\u00e9 p\u0159eb\u00edhaj\u00ed, kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e1 autorita se hrout\u00ed a kr\u00e1l je nucen odstoupit z \u00fa\u0159adu uprost\u0159ed nel\u00edtostn\u00e9ho boje o to, co zbylo ze st\u00e1tu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V jeho prosp\u011bch je t\u0159eba \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee pe\u010dliv\u011b zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f a nikoli o hotovou v\u011bc, a \u017ee si uv\u011bdomuje i vlastn\u00ed informa\u010dn\u00ed mezery. Strukturu jeho argumentace v\u0161ak stoj\u00ed za to zkoumat krok za krokem, nebo\u0165 ka\u017ed\u00fd z jej\u00edch pil\u00ed\u0159\u016f nese zna\u010dnou v\u00e1hu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Prvn\u00ed pil\u00ed\u0159: Americk\u00e1 podpora<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklad se t\u00fdk\u00e1 vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed podpory. Miller\u016fv nejost\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed analytick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v rozli\u0161en\u00ed t\u0159\u00ed v\u011bc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f spojov\u00e1ny: fyzick\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost, skute\u010dn\u00e9 schopnosti a politick\u00fd z\u00e1vazek. Americk\u00fd person\u00e1l m\u016f\u017ee v Jord\u00e1nsku z\u016fstat, zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby, financov\u00e1n\u00ed a logistika mohou nad\u00e1le proudit \u2013 nic z toho v\u0161ak automaticky nep\u0159edstavuje slib zas\u00e1hnout do dom\u00e1c\u00ed konfrontace. Monarchie m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt obklopena spojenci a p\u0159esto se v kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9m okam\u017eiku ocitnout sama.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1rove\u0148 rostou n\u00e1klady na ubytov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto spojenc\u016f. Miller poukazuje na \u00fatok na Tower 22 v lednu 2024, p\u0159i kter\u00e9m byli zabiti t\u0159i ameri\u010dt\u00ed voj\u00e1ci a kter\u00fd byl p\u0159ips\u00e1n Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9mu odboji v Ir\u00e1ku, a tak\u00e9 na zpr\u00e1vy o po\u0161kozen\u00ed americk\u00fdch letadel v Jord\u00e1nsku letos v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed. Ka\u017ed\u00fd takov\u00fd incident poskytuje dom\u00e1c\u00edm odp\u016frc\u016fm konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed argument proti alianci a podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159edstavu, \u017ee vztahy se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed pal\u00e1ci bezpe\u010dnost, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e aby ho vystavovaly dal\u0161\u00edm nebezpe\u010d\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, na kter\u00e9 Miller poukazuje, nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve form\u00e1ln\u00edm sta\u017een\u00ed USA, ale v n\u011b\u010dem jemn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm: v n\u011b\u010dem, co je sice k dispozici, ale v okam\u017eiku, kdy je podrobena zkou\u0161ce, nenab\u00edz\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dnou skute\u010dnou ochranu.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Druh\u00fd pil\u00ed\u0159: Mezera v legitimit\u011b<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Druh\u00fdm pil\u00ed\u0159em je ten, kolem kter\u00e9ho se to\u010d\u00ed prakticky ka\u017ed\u00fd jord\u00e1nsk\u00fd analytik, a Miller k n\u011bmu p\u0159istupuje s v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed discipl\u00ednou ne\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina ostatn\u00edch. Jord\u00e1nci palestinsk\u00e9ho p\u016fvodu tvo\u0159\u00ed odhadem 55 a\u017e 70 procent populace \u2013 toto \u010d\u00edslo v\u00fdslovn\u011b ozna\u010duje sp\u00ed\u0161e za nejist\u00fd odhad ne\u017e za potvrzen\u00fd po\u010det, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 s\u0148atky st\u00e1le v\u00edce st\u00edraj\u00ed hranice \u2013 zat\u00edmco V\u00fdchodn\u00ed Jord\u00e1nci nad\u00e1le dominuj\u00ed v arm\u00e1d\u011b, bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch a st\u00e1tn\u00edm apar\u00e1tu. Zranitelnost spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v propasti mezi spole\u010denskou v\u00e1hou a p\u0159\u00edstupem k moci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Miller se v\u0161ak nedopou\u0161t\u00ed prost\u00e9 chyby, \u017ee by demografick\u00e9 zm\u011bny vn\u00edmal jako osud. Jeho prahov\u00e1 hodnota pro skute\u010dnou hrozbu je organiza\u010dn\u00ed, nikoli numerick\u00e1: trval\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce mezi populacemi palestinsk\u00e9ho p\u016fvodu a t\u011bmi z v\u00fdchodn\u00edho Jord\u00e1nska, spojen\u00e1 se skupinami schopn\u00fdmi naru\u0161it ekonomickou aktivitu, o \u010dem\u017e sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed koordinovan\u00e9 st\u00e1vky a \u2013 co\u017e je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u2013 \u00fat\u011bky od elit, kter\u00e9 v sou\u010dasnosti udr\u017euj\u00ed syst\u00e9m v chodu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Organizovanou ozbrojenou mobilizaci pova\u017euje za samostatn\u00fd a v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e1h eskalace a zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee samotn\u00e1 velikost populace nic takov\u00e9ho nedokazuje. Obnoven\u00e9 zab\u00edjen\u00ed v Gaze, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdch navzdory p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed z 13. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, p\u016fsob\u00ed jako urychlova\u010d a ka\u017ed\u00fd incident posiluje pocit, \u017ee kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e1 diplomacie pro Palestince nic nedosahuje. Otev\u0159en\u00fd dopis ze dne 30. \u010dervence, po\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch vojsk a podepsan\u00fd z\u00e1stupci obou komunit, je p\u0159esn\u011b t\u00edm druhem sign\u00e1lu sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed, na kter\u00fd je podle Millera t\u0159eba hledat \u2013 ale nikoli samotn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">T\u0159et\u00ed pil\u00ed\u0159: Pen\u00edze<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ekonomick\u00e1 situace je podn\u011btem k tomuto politick\u00e9mu p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu. R\u016fst v roce 2025 \u010dinil p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,8 procenta, zat\u00edmco hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1 nezam\u011bstnanost mezi Jord\u00e1nci \u010dinila 21,4 procenta \u2013 r\u016fst je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 slab\u00fd na to, aby zm\u00edrnil tlak na rozpo\u010dty dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vl\u00e1da se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na extern\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed, aby z\u00edskala \u010das: Nez\u00e1vazn\u00e9 memorandum o porozum\u011bn\u00ed ohledn\u011b americk\u00e9 pomoci p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 nejm\u00e9n\u011b 1,45 miliardy dolar\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b do fisk\u00e1ln\u00edho roku 2029. Miller v\u0161ak spr\u00e1vn\u011b poukazuje na to, \u017ee ozn\u00e1men\u00fd v\u00edcelet\u00fd z\u00e1vazek nen\u00ed tot\u00e9\u017e co m\u00edt pen\u00edze v bance a \u017ee schvalov\u00e1n\u00ed rozpo\u010dtu se m\u016f\u017ee zpozdit pr\u00e1v\u011b tehdy, kdy\u017e rostou n\u00e1klady na bezpe\u010dnost a soci\u00e1ln\u00ed po\u017eadavky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Rezervy poskytuj\u00ed pol\u0161t\u00e1\u0159 \u2013 na konci b\u0159ezna \u010dinily hrub\u00e9 dostupn\u00e9 rezervy t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 27 miliard dolar\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st n\u00e1r\u016fstu v roce 2025 byla p\u0159ips\u00e1na sp\u00ed\u0161e p\u0159ecen\u011bn\u00ed zlata ne\u017e nov\u00e9 likvidit\u011b. Progn\u00f3za z poloviny roku 2026 i nad\u00e1le p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala, \u017ee dluh z\u016fstane udr\u017eiteln\u00fd a z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e vl\u00e1dy m\u00edrn\u00e1. Tento p\u0159edpoklad v\u0161ak vych\u00e1zel z p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee naru\u0161en\u00ed ekonomiky kolem poloviny roku ustoup\u00ed. Boje v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed tento p\u0159edpoklad vyvracej\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed jeho ekonomick\u00e9ho argumentu je transmisn\u00ed mechanismus: krize se dost\u00e1v\u00e1 na vrchol prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm plat\u016f a plateb. Podle Millera je t\u0159eba v\u011bnovat pozornost p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm nedoplatk\u016fm na mzd\u00e1ch, nespln\u011bn\u00fdm z\u00e1vazk\u016fm v\u016f\u010di kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm dodavatel\u016fm a omezen\u00edm bankovn\u00edch p\u0159evod\u016f \u2013 jin\u00fdmi slovy t\u011bm zn\u00e1mk\u00e1m, \u017ee finan\u010dn\u00ed tlak dos\u00e1hl opera\u010dn\u00edho j\u00e1dra st\u00e1tu. To jsou ukazatele, kter\u00e9 transformuj\u00ed rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd probl\u00e9m na politick\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pil\u00ed\u0159 \u010dty\u0159i: Voda a infrastruktura<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010ctvrt\u00fd pil\u00ed\u0159 p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1l selh\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1tu p\u0159\u00edmo do kuchyn\u011b. Jord\u00e1nsko pat\u0159\u00ed mezi zem\u011b s nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edm nedostatkem vody na sv\u011bt\u011b \u2013 s p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 61 krychlov\u00fdmi metry obnoviteln\u00e9 sladk\u00e9 vody na osobu a rok \u2013 a jeho dod\u00e1vky z\u00e1vis\u00ed na elekt\u0159in\u011b, funk\u010dn\u00edm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed a energetick\u00fdch spole\u010dnostech, kter\u00e9 jsou schopny platit \u00fa\u010dty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdpadek paliva nebo proudu m\u016f\u017ee proto zhor\u0161it vodn\u00ed krizi, ani\u017e by kdokoli po\u0161kodil jedin\u00e9 potrub\u00ed. Dlouhodob\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, jako je projekt vodovodn\u00edho potrub\u00ed z Akaby do Amm\u00e1nu, nelze dostate\u010dn\u011b rychle nap\u00e1jet a dokon\u010dit, aby poskytla kl\u00ed\u010dovou pomoc v akutn\u00ed krizi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Miller\u016fv opera\u010dn\u00ed argument je ten znepokojiv\u00fd: infrastruktura by mohla selhat d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e budou vy\u0159e\u0161eny politick\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky. Leteck\u00e1 doprava, p\u0159\u00edstup k p\u0159\u00edstav\u016fm, n\u00e1kladn\u00ed doprava, elekt\u0159ina a voda by se mohly zastavit, co\u017e by donutilo podniky ukon\u010dit \u010dinnost bez ohledu na to, kdo je u moci. Proto ve sv\u00e9m briefingu doporu\u010duje, aby m\u00edstn\u00ed z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 strany definovaly konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed spou\u0161t\u011b\u010de pro odchod ji\u017e nyn\u00ed, na z\u00e1klad\u011b m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch z\u00e1kladn\u00edch slu\u017eeb, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e aby \u010dekaly na kone\u010dn\u00fd politick\u00fd v\u00fdsledek.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e tr\u016fn padne<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Miller jasn\u011b \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee pouh\u00e9 odstran\u011bn\u00ed pal\u00e1ce \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z probl\u00e9m\u016f nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed. N\u00e1stupce zd\u011bd\u00ed stejn\u00fd nedostatek vody, stejnou nezam\u011bstnanost, stejnou z\u00e1vislost na extern\u00edm financov\u00e1n\u00ed a stejn\u00e9 zraniteln\u00e9 z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed trasy \u2013 a bude si muset od prvn\u00edho dne zajistit kontrolu nad velen\u00edm, nastolit legitimitu, vypl\u00e1cet platy a udr\u017eovat sv\u011btla v chodu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nasti\u0148uje t\u0159i mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00fdvoje: vojensky veden\u00fd p\u0159echod, v n\u011bm\u017e z\u016fstanou zachov\u00e1ny velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti st\u00e1tu; vyjednan\u00fd ob\u010dansk\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d, pokud se instituce a frakce dok\u00e1\u017eou dohodnout na p\u0159echodn\u00e9 autorit\u011b; nebo fragmentaci, pokud ozbrojen\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i odm\u00edtnou spole\u010dn\u00e9 veden\u00ed a budou bojovat o \u00fazem\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edjmy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Z\u00e1padn\u00ed b\u0159eh Jord\u00e1nu se ty\u010d\u00ed nad v\u0161emi t\u0159emi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i: N\u00e1stupce by mohl b\u00fdt pod tlakem, aby zaujal rozhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postoj v\u016f\u010di Izraeli, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 by hrozilo v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 riziko, \u017ee p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed by mohlo v\u00e9st k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 konfrontaci. Mobilizace, jak to Miller vyj\u00e1d\u0159il, m\u016f\u017ee vl\u00e1dce odstranit; neposkytuje ani st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det, ani linii velen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V tomto bod\u011b si zaslou\u017e\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed zd\u016frazn\u011bn\u00ed Millerovy vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdhrady. Historick\u00e1 \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed o p\u00e1du h\u00e1\u0161imovsk\u00e9 monarchie je n\u00edzk\u00e1. Monarchie p\u0159e\u017eila \u010cern\u00e9 z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 1970, kdy vedla a vyhr\u00e1la skute\u010dnou ob\u010danskou v\u00e1lku proti ozbrojen\u00fdm palestinsk\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m. P\u0159e\u017eila protesty \u00fasporn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed v roce 1989. A p\u0159e\u017eila Arabsk\u00e9 jaro v roce 2011, kter\u00e9 svrhlo vl\u00e1dy v jej\u00edm okol\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">S\u00e1zky proti tomuto tr\u016fnu maj\u00ed dlouhou historii ne\u00fasp\u011bch\u016f. P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f kolapsu \u201edo roka\u201c by proto m\u011bla b\u00fdt posuzov\u00e1na s ohledem na toto historick\u00e9 pozad\u00ed a nikoli izolovan\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Miller\u016fv briefing si zaslou\u017e\u00ed pozornost nikoli jistota jeho z\u00e1v\u011bru, ale kvalita jeho seznamu varovn\u00fdch sign\u00e1l\u016f. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed je v\u011bd\u011bt, na co si d\u00e1t pozor: trvalou spole\u010dnou mobilizaci obou skupin obyvatelstva; ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 pop\u0159en\u00ed se v\u016f\u010di p\u0159edstavitel\u016fm establishmentu, kte\u0159\u00ed v sou\u010dasnosti br\u00e1n\u00ed st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00e1d; bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed s\u00edly odm\u00edtaj\u00edc\u00ed plnit rozkazy \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy; nedoplatky na mzd\u00e1ch a z\u00e1kladn\u00edch slu\u017eb\u00e1ch; a soupe\u0159\u00edc\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady ovl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 st\u00e1t nem\u016f\u017ee znovu dob\u00fdt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To by byly zn\u00e1mky toho, \u017ee se nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 st\u00e1v\u00e1 realitou \u2013 a podle Millera je to p\u0159esn\u011b ten v\u00fdvoj, kter\u00fd bychom m\u011bli sledovat. Vzhledem k tomu, jak se jeho hodnocen\u00ed Jemenu od \u010dervence vyv\u00edjelo, bych tuto progn\u00f3zu tak\u00e9 jen tak nezavrhl.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/sonar21.com\/the-hashemite-endgame-the-case-that-jordan-is-next\/\"><span dir=\"auto\">Larry C. Johnson<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dev\u011bt t\u00fddn\u016f p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 ohromili region \u00fat\u011bkem ze sv\u00fdch severn\u00edch pevnost\u00ed, Karl Miller p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":116020,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,9042,1400,6118,122],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116019"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116019"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116019\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116020"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}