{"id":115789,"date":"2026-09-14T00:16:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T22:16:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=115789"},"modified":"2026-09-13T15:25:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T13:25:21","slug":"jiri-paroubek-dalsi-volebni-debakl-kanclere-merze-a-nemecke-vlady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/14\/jiri-paroubek-dalsi-volebni-debakl-kanclere-merze-a-nemecke-vlady\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Dal\u0161\u00ed volebn\u00ed debakl kancl\u00e9\u0159e Merze a n\u011bmeck\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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20. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed prob\u011bhnou ve dvou dal\u0161\u00edch spolkov\u00fdch zem\u00edch volby do zemsk\u00e9ho parlamentu. Je to jednak Meklenbursko-P\u0159edn\u00ed Pomo\u0159ansko, co\u017e je mal\u00e1 spolkov\u00e1 zem\u011b s 1,6 miliony obyvatel. A zemsk\u00e9 volby prob\u011bhnou tak\u00e9 v hlavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b Berl\u00edn\u011b, co\u017e je spolkov\u00e1 zem\u011b s 3,8 milionu obyvatel.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto N\u011bmecka je po v\u0161ech str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch velmi v\u00fdznamnou spolkovou zem\u00ed. V\u00fdznam Meklemburska v celon\u011bmeck\u00e9m kontextu nen\u00ed t\u0159eba p\u0159ece\u0148ovat. Meklembursko-P\u0159edn\u00ed Pomo\u0159ansko pat\u0159\u00ed jen tak mimochodem k spolkov\u00fdm zem\u00edm s nejmen\u0161\u00ed hustotou obyvatel. Tato spolkov\u00e1 zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 byla d\u0159\u00edve sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed NDR, nem\u00e1 ani p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd v\u00fdznam, tedy v r\u00e1mci ekonomiky Spolkov\u00e9 republiky N\u011bmecko.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o Meklenbursko- P\u0159edn\u00ed Pomo\u0159ansko, lze podle pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed agentury FGW zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9ho v nejsledovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e9 televizi ZDF v Meklembursku o\u010dek\u00e1vat ve volb\u00e1ch 37% voli\u010d\u016f AfD. Na druh\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b v pr\u016fzkumu se v pom\u011brn\u011b t\u011bsn\u00e9m z\u00e1v\u011bsu dr\u017e\u00ed SPD sou\u010dasn\u00e9 zemsk\u00e9 premi\u00e9rky Schwesigov\u00e9. Dal\u0161\u00ed stranou v r\u00e1mci t\u00e9to spolkov\u00e9 zem\u011b je v pr\u016fzkumu s 10% strana Levice. A teprve za n\u00ed n\u00e1sleduje strana kancl\u00e9\u0159e Merze se 7 % mo\u017en\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f. A na posledn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b v pr\u016fzkumu jsou Zelen\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed se pohybuj\u00ed na hranici volitelnosti. Tedy na 5% podpory voli\u010d\u016f. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee v budouc\u00edm zemskem sn\u011bmu nemus\u00ed, vzhledem k uzav\u00edrac\u00ed volebn\u00ed klauzuli pro vstup do zemsk\u00e9ho parlamentu 5 %, tato strana v\u016fbec zasedat. Volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky v t\u00e9to spolkov\u00e9 zemi tedy budou pro spolkovou vl\u00e1du pon\u011bkud p\u0159ijateln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017eli v bl\u00edzk\u00e9m Sasku-Anhaltsku, v n\u011bm\u017e AfD z\u00edskala v pr\u00e1v\u011b prob\u011bhl\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch do zemsk\u00e9ho sn\u011bmu 44 % hlas\u016f. V Meklembursku m\u00e1 tedy SPD re\u00e1lnou \u0161anci, spolu s dal\u0161\u00edmi mainstreamov\u00fdmi stranami, kter\u00e9 samy sebe ozna\u010duj\u00ed za demokratick\u00e9, postavit vl\u00e1du. Tedy za p\u0159edpokladu, \u017ee se do sn\u011bmu dostane Strana zelen\u00fdch. Pokud nikoliv, budou muset SPD a CDU n\u011bjak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem dojednat pro svou p\u0159\u00edpadnou men\u0161inovou zemskou vl\u00e1du mimovl\u00e1dn\u00ed podporu se stranou Levice. A to pro n\u011b ur\u010dit\u011b bude velmi ho\u0159k\u00e1 pilulka.<\/p>\n

V Berl\u00edn\u011b je situace pro vl\u00e1du rovn\u011b\u017e v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1, proto\u017ee jako nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed politick\u00e1 strana z pr\u016fzkumu vych\u00e1z\u00ed strana Levice, s t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u010dtvrtinou potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch voli\u010d\u016f (23%), na druh\u00e9 m\u00edst\u011b je CDU s 21%. A hned na t\u0159et\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b je AfD se 17%. Tedy dv\u011b strany, kter\u00e9 jsou mimo politick\u00fd hlavn\u00ed proud mohou dohromady z\u00edskat kolem dvou p\u011btin mo\u017en\u00fdch hlas\u016f voli\u010d\u016f.<\/p>\n

Za AfD je v t\u011bsn\u00e9m z\u00e1v\u011bsu Strana zelen\u00fdch s 16% mo\u017en\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f. Pr\u016fzkum televize ZDF neuv\u00e1d\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek SPD.<\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, i kdy\u017e se velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b poda\u0159\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fdm zaveden\u00fdm politick\u00fdm stran\u00e1m vytvo\u0159it v obou zem\u00edch koali\u010dn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, a to se sou\u010dasn\u00fdm vytvo\u0159en\u00edm karant\u00e9nn\u00ed zdi kolem AfD, nebude to pro n\u011b v\u016fbec jednoduch\u00e1 situace. Budou muset spolknout ho\u0159kou pilulku ur\u010dit\u00e9 formy spolupr\u00e1ce se stranou Levice. A tato strana si svou benevolenci jist\u011b nech\u00e1 v politick\u00e9 m\u011bn\u011b tvrd\u011b zaplatit, co\u017e je pochopiteln\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Po t\u011bchto t\u0159ech z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00fdch zemsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch, tedy po datu 20.z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, by m\u011bly ob\u011b dv\u011b berl\u00ednsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany, m\u00e1m tedy na mysli strany tvo\u0159\u00edc\u00ed spolkovou vl\u00e1du (CDU\/CSU a SPD), prov\u00e9st z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bny ve sv\u00e9 politice. Tedy, pokud necht\u011bj\u00ed p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eet k \u00fapln\u00e9mu rozkladu sv\u00fdch politick\u00fdch pozic v cel\u00e9m N\u011bmecku.<\/p>\n

Tak za prv\u00e9 budou nezbytn\u00e9 person\u00e1ln\u00ed ro\u0161\u00e1dy ve slo\u017een\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edho kabinetu v Berl\u00edn\u011b. Za druh\u00e9 pak budou muset uskute\u010dnit zm\u011bny vl\u00e1dn\u00edho postupu, v\u010d.p\u0159evzet\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch racion\u00e1ln\u00edch programov\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f AfD. Voli\u010di v obou t\u011bchto spolkov\u00fdch zem\u00edch ve sv\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b nech\u00e1pou politiku sou\u010dasn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, respektive obou jej\u00edch stran, kter\u00e1 sm\u011b\u0159uje sp\u00ed\u0161e k z\u00e1jmu o Ukrajinu, o masivn\u00ed zbrojen\u00ed, ne\u017eli k interesu o \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016f vlastn\u00edch obyvatel. Vl\u00e1dnut\u00ed na zemsk\u00e9 \u00farovni v obou t\u011bchto zem\u00edch Spolkov\u00e9 republiky N\u011bmecko, bude po volb\u00e1ch mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9. A pln\u011b plat\u00ed to, co jsem u\u017e napsal po volb\u00e1ch v Sasku-Anhaltsku, \u017ee pozice spolkov\u00e9ho kancl\u00e9\u0159e Merze s jeho 13% podpory n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho obyvatelstva, je politicky zcela neudr\u017eiteln\u00e1. Na v\u00fdchod\u011b N\u011bmecka, v tzv. nov\u00fdch spolkov\u00fdch zem\u00edch, je logicky tato podpora kancl\u00e9\u0159e Merze z\u0159ejm\u011b je\u0161t\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

20. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed prob\u011bhnou ve dvou dal\u0161\u00edch spolkov\u00fdch zem\u00edch volby do zemsk\u00e9ho parlamentu. Je to jednak…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105469,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,2845,8211,84,99,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115789"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115789\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105469"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}