{"id":115757,"date":"2026-09-13T05:29:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T03:29:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=115757"},"modified":"2026-09-13T05:29:11","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T03:29:11","slug":"kolik-slunce-unese-ceska-elektrizacni-soustava","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/13\/kolik-slunce-unese-ceska-elektrizacni-soustava\/","title":{"rendered":"Kolik slunce unese \u010desk\u00e1 elektriza\u010dn\u00ed soustava?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Pro\u010d je prvn\u00edch deset procent fotovoltaiky u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fd dopln\u011bk \u2014 a pro\u010d se z vysok\u00fdch pod\u00edl\u016f m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t \u00fa\u010det za druhou elektriza\u010dn\u00ed soustavu. Panel m\u016f\u017ee vyr\u00e1b\u011bt levnou elekt\u0159inu. To je\u0161t\u011b neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee levn\u011b dod\u00e1v\u00e1 elekt\u0159inu tehdy, kdy ji soustava pot\u0159ebuje.<\/p>\n

Pracovn\u00ed hypot\u00e9za<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pro budouc\u00ed \u010desk\u00fd mix s vysok\u00fdm pod\u00edlem j\u00e1dra m\u016f\u017ee le\u017eet ekonomick\u00e9 minimum p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b kolem 10 % ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdroby z fotovoltaiky. Nen\u00ed to dogma ani v\u00fdsledek hotov\u00e9ho modelu; je to \u010d\u00edslo, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 smysl poctiv\u011b otestovat na v\u0161ech 8 760 hodin\u00e1ch roku.<\/p>\n

1. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd test zdrav\u00e9ho rozumu<\/h1>\n

Kdyby byla fotovoltaika naprost\u00fd technick\u00fd a ekonomick\u00fd nesmysl, pragmati\u010dt\u00ed \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 by panely vyr\u00e1b\u011bli, prod\u00e1vali je Evropan\u016fm a doma d\u00e1l spokojen\u011b p\u00e1lili uhl\u00ed. Jen\u017ee oni je ve velk\u00e9m instaluj\u00ed tak\u00e9 doma. Fotovoltaika se tedy p\u0159i ur\u010dit\u00e9m pod\u00edlu nepochybn\u011b vypl\u00e1c\u00ed. Ot\u00e1zkou nen\u00ed, zda ji pou\u017e\u00edvat, ale kolik j\u00ed postavit, ne\u017e \u00faspory vyst\u0159\u00eddaj\u00ed dodate\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.<\/p>\n

V roce 2025 m\u011bla \u010c\u00edna podle sv\u00e9 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy 1,2 TW fotovoltaick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu. Sol\u00e1r vyrobil 1,17 PWh elekt\u0159iny a vyu\u017eito bylo p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 95 % dostupn\u00e9 fotovoltaick\u00e9 v\u00fdroby. P\u0159i celkov\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b kolem deseti petawatthodin to odpov\u00edd\u00e1 \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b jeden\u00e1cti procent\u016fm elekt\u0159iny. To je pozoruhodn\u00fd experiment velikosti kontinentu: kolem t\u00e9to \u00farovn\u011b syst\u00e9m po\u0159\u00e1d dok\u00e1zal v\u011bt\u0161inu sol\u00e1rn\u00ed produkce vst\u0159ebat.<\/p>\n

Nelze tedy pau\u0161\u00e1ln\u011b tvrdit, \u017ee fotovoltaika je \u010dir\u00e9 zlo (i kdy\u017e j\u00edm samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je). N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed blouznivci \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad \u010c\u00edna, Zden\u011bk Zemek \u010di Ivo Rittig \u2013 ji toti\u017e dok\u00e1zali vyu\u017e\u00edt ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch.<\/p>\n

Satira stranou: \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad nedokazuje, \u017ee jeden\u00e1ct procent je univerz\u00e1ln\u00ed optimum. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 jinou spot\u0159ebu, obrovsk\u00e9 vodn\u00ed zdroje, uhl\u00ed, j\u00e1dro, rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 p\u0159enosy i rychle rostouc\u00ed akumulaci. Dokazuje v\u0161ak n\u011bco d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edho: n\u00edzk\u00fd a\u017e st\u0159edn\u00ed pod\u00edl fotovoltaiky m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt racion\u00e1ln\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed norm\u00e1ln\u00edho energetick\u00e9ho mixu. A tak\u00e9 to, \u017ee \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 nestav\u011bj\u00ed \u201esol\u00e1rn\u00ed energetiku\u201c. Stav\u011bj\u00ed energetick\u00fd syst\u00e9m, jeho\u017e jednou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed je sol\u00e1r.<\/p>\n

2. Levn\u00e1 MWh nen\u00ed tot\u00e9\u017e co levn\u00e1 elekt\u0159ina<\/h1>\n

B\u011b\u017en\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f elektr\u00e1ren pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 LCOE: investici, provoz a vyroben\u00e9 megawatthodiny na \u00farovni samotn\u00e9ho zdroje. Pro FV panel je to u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo. Pro elektriza\u010dn\u00ed soustavu je to jen za\u010d\u00e1tek.<\/p>\n

Spot\u0159ebitel toti\u017e nekupuje pr\u016fm\u011brnou megawatthodinu vyrobenou n\u011bkdy b\u011bhem roku. Chce elekt\u0159inu v \u00fater\u00fd v 18:49, v lednov\u00e9 inverzi i ve chv\u00edli, kdy spadne veden\u00ed. Spr\u00e1vnou ot\u00e1zkou proto nen\u00ed \u201ekolik stoj\u00ed elekt\u0159ina z FV panelu\u201c, ale \u201ekolik stoj\u00ed spolehliv\u011b dodat ka\u017edou po\u017eadovanou kilowatthodinu v syst\u00e9mu, do n\u011bho\u017e jsme tento panel p\u0159idali\u201c.<\/p>\n

OECD Nuclear Energy Agency rozli\u0161uje n\u00e1klady elektr\u00e1rny a celkov\u00e9 syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady. Do druh\u00e9 skupiny pat\u0159\u00ed zejm\u00e9na:<\/p>\n

\u2022 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed v\u00fdkon pro noc, zimu a dlouh\u00e1 obdob\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00e9 v\u00fdroby;<\/p>\n

\u2022 baterie, p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a ztr\u00e1ty p\u0159i ukl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed a op\u011btovn\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b;<\/p>\n

\u2022 posilov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159enosov\u00fdch a distribu\u010dn\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed, transform\u00e1tor\u016f a p\u0159\u00edpojek;<\/p>\n

\u2022 regulace frekvence a nap\u011bt\u00ed, jalov\u00fd v\u00fdkon, setrva\u010dnost a zkratov\u00fd v\u00fdkon;<\/p>\n

\u2022 omezov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdroby v p\u0159ebytku a n\u00edzk\u00e9 vyu\u017eit\u00ed zdroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 musej\u00ed z\u016fstat k dispozici.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed fotovoltaick\u00e9 procento v\u011bt\u0161inu t\u011bchto za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nepot\u0159ebuje. Vyu\u017eije pru\u017enost, kterou u\u017e soustava m\u00e1, a p\u0159es den u\u0161et\u0159\u00ed palivo. Jen\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd dal\u0161\u00ed FV panel vyr\u00e1b\u00ed zhruba ve stejn\u00fdch hodin\u00e1ch jako v\u0161echny p\u0159edchoz\u00ed panely. Jeho tr\u017en\u00ed i syst\u00e9mov\u00e1 hodnota proto s nasycen\u00edm kles\u00e1, zat\u00edmco n\u00e1klady na integraci rostou.<\/p>\n

Definice ekonomick\u00e9ho optima<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fotovoltaika je pro syst\u00e9m v\u00fdhodn\u00e1 tak dlouho, dokud dal\u0161\u00ed instalovan\u00fd megawatt sni\u017euje celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed. Minimum ceny panelu a minimum ceny soustavy nejsou stejn\u00fd bod.<\/p>\n

3. K\u0159ivka, o kterou ve skute\u010dnosti jde<\/h1>\n

N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed graf nen\u00ed cenovou progn\u00f3zou \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky. Je to schematick\u00e9 zobrazen\u00ed mechanismu. \u010cern\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra ukazuje celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady a mus\u00ed b\u00fdt hlavn\u00edm sd\u011blen\u00edm; ten\u010d\u00ed barevn\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry ukazuj\u00ed, z \u010deho se \u00fa\u010det skl\u00e1d\u00e1. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m bod\u011b se jejich hodnoty p\u0159esn\u011b s\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed do \u010dern\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Graf 1. Ilustrativn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj syst\u00e9mov\u00fdch n\u00e1klad\u016f p\u0159i r\u016fstu pod\u00edlu fotovoltaiky. Index 100 odpov\u00edd\u00e1 soustav\u011b bez FV; nejde o nam\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 \u010desk\u00e1 data.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Lev\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st k\u0159ivky je intuitivn\u00ed. Fotovoltaika nahrazuje dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed denn\u00ed v\u00fdrobu, \u0161et\u0159\u00ed palivo a \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159enosov\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t. Kolem pracovn\u00edch osmi a\u017e dvan\u00e1cti procent se p\u0159\u00ednos dal\u0161\u00edho panelu vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1. Potom nastupuj\u00ed lok\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159ebytky, z\u00e1porn\u00e9 ceny, baterie, posilov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b a z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed v\u00fdkon s n\u00edzk\u00fdm ro\u010dn\u00edm vyu\u017eit\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Od pades\u00e1ti procent u\u017e se m\u011bn\u00ed povaha \u00falohy. Denn\u00ed baterie nesta\u010d\u00ed. Syst\u00e9m mus\u00ed p\u0159eklenout n\u011bkolik zata\u017een\u00fdch dn\u00ed a nakonec i rozd\u00edl mezi l\u00e9tem a zimou. Ka\u017ed\u00fd krok k devades\u00e1ti procent\u016fm vy\u017eaduje dispropor\u010dn\u011b v\u00edce panel\u016f, z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f, veden\u00ed nebo zdroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161inu roku \u010dekaj\u00ed. Proto je prav\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st k\u0159ivky konvexn\u00ed a m\u016f\u017ee r\u016fst velmi prudce. Zda bude matematicky skute\u010dn\u011b exponenci\u00e1ln\u00ed, mus\u00ed uk\u00e1zat model; fyzik\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fvod pro prudk\u00e9 zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed je v\u0161ak z\u0159ejm\u00fd.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i devades\u00e1ti procentech fotovoltaiky u\u017e neplat\u00edme jen panely. Plat\u00edme panely a z\u00e1rove\u0148 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 celou elektr\u00e1renskou soustavu, kter\u00e1 \u010dek\u00e1 na tmu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

4. Pro\u010d jadern\u00e9 \u010cesko snese m\u00e9n\u011b sol\u00e1ru ne\u017e plynov\u00e1 soustava<\/h1>\n

Univerz\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201espr\u00e1vn\u00e9 procento\u201c neexistuje. Stejn\u00fd pod\u00edl fotovoltaiky se chov\u00e1 jinak v zemi s pru\u017en\u00fdm plynem, jinak vedle vodn\u00edch elektr\u00e1ren a jinak v syst\u00e9mu, jeho\u017e z\u00e1kladem bude j\u00e1dro.<\/p>\n

Jadern\u00fd blok technicky regulovat um\u00ed. Ekonomicky v\u0161ak d\u00e1v\u00e1 mal\u00fd smysl postavit drah\u00fd zdroj s levn\u00fdm palivem a potom jej ka\u017ed\u00e9 slune\u010dn\u00e9 poledne \u0161krtit. \u010c\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl j\u00e1dra, t\u00edm cenn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je vysok\u00e9 vyu\u017eit\u00ed jeho v\u00fdkonu a t\u00edm d\u0159\u00edve za\u010dne poledn\u00ed fotovoltaika soupe\u0159it se zdrojem, kter\u00fd chceme provozovat t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Graf 2. Ilustrace posunu ekonomick\u00e9ho minima podle pru\u017enosti zbytku v\u00fdrobn\u00edho mixu. K\u0159ivky nejsou v\u00fdsledkem \u010desk\u00e9 optimaliza\u010dn\u00ed studie.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Proto je deset procent pro budouc\u00ed \u010deskou soustavu rozumn\u00e1 konzervativn\u00ed pracovn\u00ed hypot\u00e9za. Dne\u0161n\u00ed \u010cesko bylo v roce 2025 p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na 5,6 % v\u00fdroby z fotovoltaiky: st\u00e1le v oblasti, kde m\u016f\u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed rozumn\u011b um\u00edst\u011bn\u00e1 v\u00fdroba p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161et n\u011bjak\u00fd u\u017eitek. Naproti tomu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 JRC pro EU po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 v roce 2050 s v\u00edce ne\u017e 2 000 TWh sol\u00e1rn\u00ed v\u00fdroby, tedy asi 35 % evropsk\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny. To u\u017e nele\u017e\u00ed na lev\u00e9 stran\u011b k\u0159ivky, ale v oblasti, kde v\u00fdsledek stoj\u00ed na masivn\u00ed flexibilit\u011b, s\u00edt\u00edch a akumulaci.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esn\u00e9 minimum m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt osm, jeden\u00e1ct nebo \u010dtrn\u00e1ct procent. D\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e spor o desetinn\u00e9 m\u00edsto je p\u0159ijmout samotn\u00fd tvar k\u0159ivky: po ur\u010dit\u00e9m bod\u011b u\u017e ka\u017ed\u00fd dal\u0161\u00ed panel ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed p\u016fvodn\u00ed probl\u00e9m, ale vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nov\u00fd probl\u00e9m, kter\u00fd mus\u00ed \u0159e\u0161it dal\u0161\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

5. FVE blackout sama nezp\u016fsobila. Pomohla mu.<\/h1>\n

\u0160pan\u011blsk\u00fd blackout z dubna 2025 ani \u010desk\u00fd v\u00fdpadek ze 4. \u010dervence 2025 nelze poctiv\u011b shrnout v\u011btou \u201ezp\u016fsobily ho sol\u00e1ry\u201c. Elektriza\u010dn\u00ed soustavy padaj\u00ed \u0159et\u011bzcem technick\u00fdch a provozn\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, nikoli jedn\u00edm politicky pohodln\u00fdm vin\u00edkem. Stejn\u011b nepoctiv\u00e9 je ov\u0161em fotovoltaiku z \u0159et\u011bzce cudn\u011b vy\u0161krtnout. P\u0159esn\u00e1 formulace zn\u00ed: FVE \u010desk\u00fd blackout sama nezp\u016fsobila, ale prokazateln\u011b pomohla ze zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e9 poruchy ud\u011blat kask\u00e1du.<\/p>\n

Kone\u010dn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va ENTSO-E ozna\u010duje po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed odpojen\u00ed \u010desk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed V411 za jinak zvl\u00e1dnutelnou ud\u00e1lost N\u22121. B\u011bhem n\u011bkolika sekund a minut v\u0161ak v posti\u017een\u00e9 oblasti n\u00e1sledovaly neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 poklesy v\u00fdroby. Pat\u0159ilo mezi n\u011b 135 MW distribuovan\u00fdch ob\u010dasn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, z toho 130 MW odpojen\u00fdch nap\u011b\u0165ov\u00fdmi ochranami. Tento v\u00fdpadek nebyl pozn\u00e1mkou pod \u010darou: byl jednou z polo\u017eek okam\u017eit\u00e9ho deficitu, kter\u00fd p\u0159et\u00ed\u017eil dal\u0161\u00ed prvky. Sou\u010dasn\u011b vypad\u00e1val v\u00fdkon uheln\u00fdch blok\u016f; po odd\u011blen\u00ed ostrova vznikl deficit asi 1 800 MW a oblast zkolabovala.<\/p>\n

V okam\u017eiku poruchy vyr\u00e1b\u011bly \u010desk\u00e9 FVE p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 1 973 MW \u2014 po j\u00e1dru druh\u00fd nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdkon v soustav\u011b \u2014 a \u010cesko sou\u010dasn\u011b dov\u00e1\u017eelo asi 1 600 MW. Technick\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edloha zpr\u00e1vy p\u0159\u00edmo sleduje odpojov\u00e1n\u00ed konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch fotovoltaick\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren po ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9m op\u011btovn\u00e9m zapnut\u00ed veden\u00ed. Sol\u00e1r tedy nebyl pouhou kulisou ud\u00e1losti; jeho chov\u00e1n\u00ed bylo sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinn\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce.<\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va tak\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u00ed vysok\u00e9 z\u00e1pado-v\u00fdchodn\u00ed toky a \u0159adu odst\u00e1vek v s\u00edti. To nen\u00ed detail pro specialisty. Je to p\u0159esn\u011b cena slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edho syst\u00e9mu: v\u00edce tok\u016f, v\u00edce v\u00fdkonov\u00e9 elektroniky, v\u00edce ochran, v\u00edce regula\u010dn\u00edch vazeb a v\u00edce situac\u00ed, v nich\u017e se mus\u00ed n\u011bkolik za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed zachovat spr\u00e1vn\u011b b\u011bhem zlomku sekundy.<\/p>\n

Lze z toho dok\u00e1zat, \u017ee by \u010dist\u011b uhelno-jadern\u00fd mix blackout jist\u011b odvr\u00e1til? Ne. Takov\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br zpr\u00e1va nenab\u00edz\u00ed a \u010d\u00e1st ztracen\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu poch\u00e1zela pr\u00e1v\u011b z uheln\u00fdch blok\u016f. Lze v\u0161ak rozumn\u011b usuzovat, \u017ee stejn\u00fd v\u00fdkon dod\u00e1van\u00fd zdroji se synchronn\u00edmi gener\u00e1tory, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed setrva\u010dnost\u00ed a schopnost\u00ed p\u0159eklenout nap\u011b\u0165ov\u00fd p\u0159echod by sn\u00ed\u017eil pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee se zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00fd v\u00fdpadek vodi\u010de rozvine do kask\u00e1dy. To je technick\u00e1 hypot\u00e9za hodn\u00e1 modelov\u00e1n\u00ed, nikoli zatracen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u0160pan\u011blsk\u00e1 kone\u010dn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va podobn\u011b popisuje kombinaci oscilac\u00ed, nedostatk\u016f v \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed a jalov\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu, rychl\u00fdch pokles\u016f v\u00fdroby a n\u00e1sledn\u00fdch odpojen\u00ed zdroj\u016f. Pou\u010den\u00ed nen\u00ed \u201ezak\u00e1zat fotovoltaiku\u201c. Pou\u010den\u00ed zn\u00ed: se syst\u00e9mov\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami nelze zach\u00e1zet jako s bezplatnou dekorac\u00ed, kterou po odstaven\u00ed synchronn\u00edch elektr\u00e1ren n\u011bkdo dod\u00e1 z dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle.<\/p>\n

Drah\u00e1 banalita<\/strong><\/p>\n

Setrva\u010dnost, nap\u011b\u0165ov\u00e1 regulace, zkratov\u00fd v\u00fdkon, ostrovn\u00ed provoz, pohotovostn\u00ed v\u00fdkon a obnova po poru\u0161e jsou v\u011bci p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b kurevsky drah\u00e9 \u2014 zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 kdy\u017e se plat\u00ed kapacita, kter\u00e1 vyd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1 jen n\u011bkolik kritick\u00fdch hodin ro\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n

6. \u010cesk\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f: j\u00e1dro, voda a sol\u00e1r v pomocn\u00e9 roli<\/h1>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 republika nem\u00e1 podm\u00ednky \u0160pan\u011blska ani \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd kontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9m. M\u00e1 v\u0161ak jadern\u00e9 know-how, existuj\u00edc\u00ed vodn\u00ed d\u00edla, hustou s\u00ed\u0165 a pr\u016fmyslovou spot\u0159ebu. P\u0159irozen\u00e1 architektura proto vypad\u00e1 jinak: siln\u00fd jadern\u00fd z\u00e1klad, omezen\u00fd pod\u00edl fotovoltaiky, voda a p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pro kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 \u0161pi\u010dky, dopln\u011bn\u00e9 pru\u017en\u00fdm z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edm v\u00fdkonem a \u0159\u00edzen\u00edm spot\u0159eby.<\/p>\n

My\u0161lenka p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00ed Vltavsk\u00e9 kask\u00e1dy jako partnera p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdch dal\u0161\u00edch temel\u00ednsk\u00fdch blok\u016f stoj\u00ed za v\u00e1\u017enou studii. Jej\u00ed hodnota by nebyla hlavn\u011b v ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdrob\u011b, ale v \u010dase: v noci a p\u0159i p\u0159ebytku by \u010derpala, v rann\u00ed a ve\u010dern\u00ed \u0161pi\u010dce by b\u011bhem minut vyr\u00e1b\u011bla. Jadern\u00e9 bloky by mohly b\u011b\u017eet s vysok\u00fdm vyu\u017eit\u00edm a fotovoltaika by dostala prostor do okam\u017eiku, kdy je je\u0161t\u011b pomocn\u00edkem, nikoli d\u016fvodem stav\u011bt ma\u0159i\u010de.<\/p>\n

Takov\u00e1 studie mus\u00ed b\u00fdt hodinov\u00e1, prostorov\u00e1 a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed. Nesta\u010d\u00ed se\u010d\u00edst ro\u010dn\u00ed TWh. Mus\u00ed obsahovat nejm\u00e9n\u011b po\u010das\u00ed v n\u011bkolika odli\u0161n\u00fdch letech, zimn\u00ed \u0161pi\u010dky, dostupnost blok\u016f a veden\u00ed, omezen\u00ed s\u00edt\u00ed, n\u00e1b\u011bhy zdroj\u016f, \u00fa\u010dinnost a energetickou kapacitu \u00falo\u017ei\u0161\u0165, po\u017eadavek N\u22121 a cenu nedodan\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny. Teprve potom lze \u0159\u00edci, kde \u010desk\u00e1 k\u0159ivka skute\u010dn\u011b dosahuje minima.<\/p>\n

7. Co by m\u011bl st\u00e1t porovn\u00e1vat<\/h1>\n

Pro rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed nesta\u010d\u00ed auk\u010dn\u00ed cena sol\u00e1rn\u00ed megawatthodiny ani cena nov\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho bloku vytr\u017een\u00e1 z kontextu. Ka\u017ed\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 mus\u00ed dodat stejnou slu\u017ebu: stejnou spot\u0159ebu v ka\u017ed\u00e9 hodin\u011b, stejnou rezervu, stejnou emisn\u00ed hranici a stejnou pravd\u011bpodobnost v\u00fdpadku.<\/p>\n

\u2022 5, 10, 15, 20, 35, 50 a 90 % ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdroby z fotovoltaiky;<\/p>\n

\u2022 varianty dne\u0161n\u00edho, pru\u017en\u00e9ho fosiln\u00edho a budouc\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho mixu;<\/p>\n

\u2022 baterie na hodiny, p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed na denn\u00ed cyklus a zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 sez\u00f3nn\u00ed z\u00e1lohu;<\/p>\n

\u2022 n\u00e1klady zdroj\u016f, s\u00edt\u00ed, rezerv, ztr\u00e1t, p\u0159ebytk\u016f i nevyu\u017eit\u00e9ho z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edho v\u00fdkonu;<\/p>\n

\u2022 citlivost na cenu kapit\u00e1lu, paliv, emisn\u00edch povolenek a dovozu.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledkem nem\u00e1 b\u00fdt politick\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, ale mapa n\u00e1klad\u016f a rizik. Pokud vyjde minimum na dvan\u00e1cti procentech, postavme jeden\u00e1ct. Pokud d\u00edky levn\u00e9 akumulaci na dvaceti, postavme devaten\u00e1ct (posledn\u00ed procento u\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dnou v\u00fdhodu nep\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed). Ale nejprve po\u010d\u00edtejme cenu syst\u00e9mu \u2014 a teprve potom po\u010det panel\u016f.<\/p>\n

Prameny a pozn\u00e1mka k \u010d\u00edsl\u016fm<\/h1>\n

Grafy v \u010dl\u00e1nku jsou z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b schematick\u00e9 a ukazuj\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd v\u00fdvoj, nikoli predikci K\u010d\/kWh. Konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed hodnoty mus\u00ed vzniknout z \u010desk\u00e9ho hodinov\u00e9ho modelu. Faktick\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla a popis ud\u00e1lost\u00ed vych\u00e1zej\u00ed z n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch zdroj\u016f:<\/p>\n

National Energy Administration of China: provoz OZE v roce 2025 \u2014 https:\/\/www.nea.gov.cn\/20260212\/742b8c6a078347b0b39de676c05c5d58\/c.html<\/p>\n

ER\u00da: Spot\u0159eba energi\u00ed v roce 2025 vzrostla \u2014 https:\/\/eru.gov.cz\/spotreba-energii-v-roce-2025-vzrostla<\/p>\n

JRC: Photovoltaics in the European Union \u2014 2025 Status Report \u2014 https:\/\/publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/repository\/bitstream\/JRC144141\/JRC144141_01.pdf<\/p>\n

OECD NEA: System Cost Analysis for Integrated Low-Carbon Electricity Systems \u2014 https:\/\/www.oecd-nea.org\/upload\/docs\/application\/pdf\/2024-03\/nea_system_costs_executive_review.pdf<\/p>\n

ENTSO-E: Final Report \u2014 Grid Incident in Czech Republic on 4 July 2025 \u2014 https:\/\/eepublicdownloads.blob.core.windows.net\/public-cdn-container\/clean-documents\/Reports\/2026\/entso-e_incident_report_CZ_final_report_260626_fv.pdf<\/p>\n

ENTSO-E: 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout \u2014 https:\/\/www.entsoe.eu\/publications\/blackout\/28-april-2025-iberian-blackout\/<\/p>\n

\u010cT24: soudn\u00ed spor Iva Rittiga o spojen\u00ed se sol\u00e1rn\u00edm byznysem \u2014 https:\/\/ct24.ceskatelevize.cz\/clanek\/domaci\/rittig-nema-narok-na-omluvu-za-spojeni-se-solarnim-byznysem-107168<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br: ned\u00edvejme se jen p\u0159ed sebe<\/h1>\n

\u010c\u00edna je ve v\u00fdstavb\u011b fotovoltaiky n\u011bkolik tah\u016f p\u0159ed n\u00e1mi. Nemus\u00edme proto h\u00e1dat, co se stane, kdy\u017e jej\u00ed pod\u00edl poroste. Sta\u010d\u00ed sledovat, kdy \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 za\u010dnou brzdit, stav\u011bt akumulaci, posilovat s\u00edt\u011b a vracet do hry stabiln\u00ed zdroje. Jejich dne\u0161n\u00ed zku\u0161enost \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee fotovoltaika kolem deseti procent m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00ednosem. Evropsk\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 na zhruba p\u011btat\u0159icet procent u\u017e bude testovat \u00fapln\u011b jinou \u010d\u00e1st n\u00e1kladov\u00e9 k\u0159ivky.<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00fdm c\u00edlem proto nem\u00e1 b\u00fdt co nejv\u00edc sol\u00e1ru, j\u00e1dra ani p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1va\u010dek. C\u00edlem m\u00e1 b\u00fdt nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed odoln\u00e1 soustava. A proto\u017ee jin\u00ed u\u017e postupuj\u00ed p\u0159ed n\u00e1mi, m\u016f\u017eeme se pou\u010dit z jejich tah\u016f. Viktor Dyk si p\u0159i vysv\u011btlov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdznamu studia \u0161achov\u00fdch zah\u00e1jen\u00ed vypomohl \u010celakovsk\u00e9ho v\u011btou:<\/p>\n

\u201eNejl\u00e9pe zadn\u00edm koz\u00e1m, neb maj\u00ed zrcad\u00e9lka p\u0159ed sebou.\u201c<\/p>\n

Bert\u00edk<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pro\u010d je prvn\u00edch deset procent fotovoltaiky u\u017eite\u010dn\u00fd dopln\u011bk \u2014 a pro\u010d se z vysok\u00fdch pod\u00edl\u016f…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":44950,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,285,3389,11635],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115757"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115757\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}