{"id":115552,"date":"2026-09-11T00:15:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T22:15:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=115552"},"modified":"2026-09-10T08:25:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T06:25:02","slug":"japonsko-vysila-varovny-signal-proc-vsechno-najednou-ukazuje-na-zlato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/11\/japonsko-vysila-varovny-signal-proc-vsechno-najednou-ukazuje-na-zlato\/","title":{"rendered":"Japonsko vys\u00edl\u00e1 varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l: Pro\u010d v\u0161echno najednou ukazuje na zlato"},"content":{"rendered":"
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To, co se v sou\u010dasnosti d\u011bje na japonsk\u00e9m trhu s dluhopisy, by mohlo m\u00edt dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9 d\u016fsledky i mimo Tokio. V\u00fdnosy japonsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f rostou na historick\u00e1 maxima, respektive na \u00farovn\u011b, jak\u00e9 tu nebyly po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se zlato po mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9m r\u016fstu obchoduje nad hranic\u00ed 4 400 dolar\u016f. Pro finan\u010dn\u00edho experta Matthewa Piepenburga to nen\u00ed n\u00e1hoda: Japonsko ukazuje, kam nakonec vede finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m postaven\u00fd na st\u00e1le rostouc\u00edm dluhu a st\u00e1le levn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch m\u011bn\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Japonsko bylo po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed pova\u017eov\u00e1no za d\u016fkaz, \u017ee st\u00e1t si m\u016f\u017ee nashrom\u00e1\u017edit prakticky neomezen\u00fd dluh, pokud jeho centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka udr\u017euje n\u00edzk\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby sama nakupuje st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy. Japonsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka vytvo\u0159ila obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed jen\u016f, v\u00fdnosy byly ob\u010das nulov\u00e9 nebo dokonce pod nimi \u2013 a syst\u00e9m fungoval pozoruhodn\u011b dlouho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale nyn\u00ed tento model vykazuje trhliny.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdnos desetilet\u00fdch japonsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f dos\u00e1hl na za\u010d\u00e1tku z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed poprv\u00e9 od roku 1996\u00a0<\/span>3 procent.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0U 30let\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f v\u00fdnos do\u010dasn\u011b dos\u00e1hl\u00a0<\/span>4,18 procenta<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 rekordn\u00edho maxima.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee to zn\u00edt jako suchop\u00e1rn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va z trhu s dluhopisy. Ve skute\u010dnosti se v\u0161ak zab\u00fdv\u00e1 ot\u00e1zkou, kter\u00e1 je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 pro t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017edou vysoce zadlu\u017eenou z\u00e1padn\u00ed zemi:<\/span><\/p>\n

Co se stane, kdy\u017e dluhy najednou zase stoj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 pen\u00edze?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Japonsko ilustruje dilema<\/span><\/h2>\n

Japonsk\u00fd st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh p\u0159esahuje 200 procent jeho ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu. Dokud by \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby byly extr\u00e9mn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9, bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 tuto z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e financovat. Pokud v\u0161ak v\u00fdnosy trvale porostou, zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed se i n\u00e1klady vl\u00e1dy na financov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

A p\u0159esn\u011b zde za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 dilema.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, dluh se stane st\u00e1le dra\u017e\u0161\u00edm. Naopak, pokud op\u011bt sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed v\u00fdnosy masivn\u00edmi n\u00e1kupy dluhopis\u016f a dodate\u010dn\u00fdmi injekcemi pen\u011bz, riskuje dal\u0161\u00ed oslaben\u00ed m\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Piepenburg<\/span><\/a>\u00a0proto vn\u00edm\u00e1 Japonsko jako \u201ekan\u00e1rka v uheln\u00e9m dole\u201c. Jeho teorie: To, co se dnes st\u00e1v\u00e1 viditeln\u00fdm v Tokiu, by mohlo z\u00edtra ovlivnit Washington a Evropu.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Japonsko nen\u00ed ojedin\u011bl\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edpadem. N\u00e1klady na dlouhodob\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00ed vzrostly i v USA a Evrop\u011b. Agentura Reuters hovo\u0159\u00ed o glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu s dluhopisy, na kter\u00e9m investo\u0159i po\u017eaduj\u00ed st\u00e1le vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy vzhledem k vysok\u00e9mu vl\u00e1dn\u00edmu dluhu a infla\u010dn\u00edm rizik\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esn\u011b zde p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed na \u0159adu zlato<\/span><\/h2>\n

Zlato neprodukuje \u00faroky ani zisky firem. Zlatu ale tak\u00e9 n\u011bco chyb\u00ed:\u00a0<\/span>nen\u00ed to dluh n\u011bkoho jin\u00e9ho.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopis je v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku slibem st\u00e1tu splatit sv\u00e9 dluhy. M\u011bna z\u00e1vis\u00ed na d\u016fv\u011b\u0159e v z\u00e1kladn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd a finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m. Zlato na druhou stranu nem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vytvo\u0159eno libovoln\u011b centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bankou.<\/span><\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b proto je jeho v\u00fdkonnost pozoruhodn\u00e1. Podle Sv\u011btov\u00e9 rady pro zlato vzrostla cena zlata jen v srpnu o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a0<\/span>13 procent<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 \u200b\u200bco\u017e je t\u0159et\u00ed nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst za \u010dtvrt stolet\u00ed. Rada vn\u00edm\u00e1 obavy z deficit\u016f, dluh\u016f a vl\u00e1dn\u00edch intervenc\u00ed na trz\u00edch s dluhopisy jako faktory, kter\u00e9 by mohly i nad\u00e1le podporovat re\u00e1ln\u00e1 aktiva, jako je zlato.<\/span><\/p>\n

Futures kontrakty na zlato se v New Yorku v sou\u010dasnosti obchoduj\u00ed za cenu okolo\u00a0<\/span>4 416 dolar\u016f za trojskou unci<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Trh podporuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bpokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1kupy zlata centr\u00e1ln\u00edmi bankami.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem tedy nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt to, \u017ee cena zlata tak prudce roste.\u00a0<\/span>Sp\u00ed\u0161e by pap\u00edrov\u00e9 m\u011bny a st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy mohly v\u016f\u010di zlatu ztr\u00e1cet hodnotu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00fdpo\u010det, kter\u00fd v\u00e1s donut\u00ed se zamyslet a v\u0161\u00edmat si toho<\/span><\/h2>\n

Piepenburg ilustruje tento rozd\u00edl na p\u0159\u00edkladu akciov\u00fdch trh\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle jeho v\u00fdpo\u010dt\u016f japonsk\u00fd index Nikkei nomin\u00e1ln\u011b vzrostl o 145 procent<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0b\u011bhem p\u011bti let\u00a0. Naproti tomu, m\u011b\u0159eno ve zlat\u011b, to p\u0159edstavuje ztr\u00e1tu\u00a0<\/span>31 procent<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Americk\u00fd index Nasdaq 100 vykazuje podobn\u00fd obr\u00e1zek: nomin\u00e1ln\u011b\u00a0<\/span>vzrostl o p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 95 procent<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, ale ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se zlatem\u00a0<\/span>klesl o 23 procent<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jeho srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s americk\u00fdmi st\u00e1tn\u00edmi dluhopisy je je\u0161t\u011b drasti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed: Za dvan\u00e1ct let ztratily v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed se zlatem zhruba\u00a0<\/span>90 procent<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0sv\u00e9 hodnoty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto v\u00fdpo\u010dty neznamenaj\u00ed, \u017ee akcion\u00e1\u0159i skute\u010dn\u011b ztratili 31 nebo 23 procent sv\u00fdch pen\u011bz. Piepenburg si z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b vyb\u00edr\u00e1 zlato jako referen\u010dn\u00ed hodnotu. Ale pr\u00e1v\u011b to vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 nep\u0159\u00edjemnou ot\u00e1zku:<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00e1 je hodnota kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9ho zisku, pokud z\u00e1rove\u0148 jednotka m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed \u2013 pen\u00edze \u2013 ztr\u00e1c\u00ed kupn\u00ed s\u00edlu?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Japonsko by nyn\u00ed mohlo zas\u00e1hnout i Ameriku<\/span><\/h2>\n

Druh\u00fd v\u00fdvoj je je\u0161t\u011b explozivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japonsko bylo po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed jedn\u00edm z nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch v\u00fdvozc\u016f kapit\u00e1lu a nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm zahrani\u010dn\u00edm dr\u017eitelem americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. Proto\u017ee japonsk\u00e9 dluhopisy nab\u00edzely mal\u00fd v\u00fdnos, proudilo velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed japonsk\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu do USA a dal\u0161\u00edch zahrani\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud ale japonsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy n\u00e1hle op\u011bt vynesou 3 nebo dokonce 4 procenta, v\u00fdpo\u010det se zm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Agentura Fitch vid\u00ed zn\u00e1mky toho, \u017ee japonsk\u00e9 banky a poji\u0161\u0165ovny op\u011bt pova\u017euj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed investice za atraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Agentura Reuters tento v\u00fdvoj popisuje jako mo\u017en\u00fd obrat v desetilet\u00edch trvaj\u00edc\u00edch kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdch tok\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se japonsk\u00fd kapit\u00e1l vr\u00e1t\u00ed dom\u016f, tyto pen\u00edze by mohly chyb\u011bt jako n\u00e1kup americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f. A USA, ze v\u0161ech zem\u00ed, mus\u00ed refinancovat obrovsk\u00e9 hory dluh\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

To by mohlo vytvo\u0159it nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd cyklus: men\u0161\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka po americk\u00fdch dluhopisech, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdnosy, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady pro Washington \u2013 a v kone\u010dn\u00e9m d\u016fsledku rostouc\u00ed tlak na Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m, aby siln\u011bji zasahoval na trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nakonec se znovu rozhodnou stejn\u011b<\/span><\/h2>\n

P\u0159esn\u011b v tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>Piepenburgova<\/span><\/a>\u00a0skute\u010dn\u00e1 teze o zlat\u011b .<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysoce zadlu\u017een\u00e9 zem\u011b mohou rostouc\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby sn\u00e1\u0161et jen omezen\u011b. Pokud se n\u00e1klady na financov\u00e1n\u00ed stanou p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysok\u00fdmi, zvy\u0161uje se politick\u00fd tlak na centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky k op\u011btovn\u00fdm intervenc\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1chrana dluhopisov\u00fdch trh\u016f nov\u011b vytvo\u0159en\u00fdmi pen\u011bzi v\u0161ak probl\u00e9m dluhu ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed. Pouze jej p\u0159esouv\u00e1 na m\u011bnu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu\u010f se dluhy stanou bolestiv\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi \u2013 nebo se pen\u00edze stanou m\u011bk\u010d\u00edmi.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zlato je mimo tento syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Piepenburg proto vn\u00edm\u00e1 rekordn\u00ed v\u00fdnosy v Japonsku nejen jako japonsk\u00fd probl\u00e9m, ale jako varovn\u00fd sign\u00e1l pro cel\u00fd z\u00e1padn\u00ed dluhov\u00fd syst\u00e9m. Jeho z\u00e1v\u011br je radik\u00e1ln\u00ed: Fyzick\u00e9 zlato ji\u017e nen\u00ed jen dopl\u0148kem portfolia, ale ochranou proti pl\u00ed\u017eiv\u00e9 devalvaci syst\u00e9mu pap\u00edrov\u00fdch pen\u011bz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Piepenburg je v\u0161ak partnerem \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti zab\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed se drah\u00fdmi kovy VON GREYERZ, a proto v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nen\u00ed neutr\u00e1ln\u00edm pozorovatelem trhu se zlatem. \u010c\u00edsla z Japonska v\u0161ak od n\u011bj nepoch\u00e1zej\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u0159i procenta u desetilet\u00fdch japonsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f po t\u0159ech desetilet\u00edch. A\u017e 4,18 procenta u 30let\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se zlato nach\u00e1z\u00ed na historicky extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00edch a nar\u016fstaj\u00ed pochybnosti o udr\u017eitelnosti st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Japonsko sv\u00fdm ob\u010dan\u016fm ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1, aby kupovali zlato.<\/span><\/p>\n

Japonsk\u00fd trh s dluhopisy v\u0161ak vys\u00edl\u00e1 zpr\u00e1vu, kter\u00e9 investo\u0159i na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b porozum\u00ed: a\u017e se za\u010dne hroutit d\u016fv\u011bra v dluhy a pap\u00edrov\u00e9 pen\u00edze, zlato se op\u011bt stane t\u00edm, \u010d\u00edm bylo po stalet\u00ed \u2013 poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm proti samotn\u00e9mu syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

To, co se v sou\u010dasnosti d\u011bje na japonsk\u00e9m trhu s dluhopisy, by mohlo m\u00edt dalekos\u00e1hl\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":115553,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,105,37,693],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115552"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115552\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/115553"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}