{"id":115465,"date":"2026-09-10T00:17:41","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T22:17:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=115465"},"modified":"2026-09-09T13:34:37","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T11:34:37","slug":"pavel-homewood-gronsky-ledovy-prikrov-letos-narostl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/10\/pavel-homewood-gronsky-ledovy-prikrov-letos-narostl\/","title":{"rendered":"Pavel Homewood: Gr\u00f3nsk\u00fd ledov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkrov letos narostl"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Gr\u00f3nsk\u00fd ledov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkrov taje v d\u016fsledku glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, nebo se n\u00e1m to alespo\u0148 tak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1. Podle zpr\u00e1vy EU o stavu evropsk\u00e9ho klimatu z roku 2025 ztratil ledov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkrov loni 139 gigatun. To je zhruba 1,5kr\u00e1t v\u00edce ne\u017e mno\u017estv\u00ed ledu ulo\u017een\u00e9ho ve v\u0161ech ledovc\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch Alp a zv\u00fd\u0161ilo to pr\u016fm\u011brnou hladinu mo\u0159e na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b o 0,4 mm. (Jedna gigatuna se rovn\u00e1 jedn\u00e9 miliard\u011b tun.) Od roku 1972 dos\u00e1hly ztr\u00e1ty celkem 5 747 gigatun. Tempo \u00fabytku ledu se od 80. let 20. stolet\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ilo zhruba p\u011btin\u00e1sobn\u011b a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee se bude zrychlovat i po skon\u010den\u00ed stolet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato mno\u017estv\u00ed zn\u00ed d\u011bsiv\u011b, co\u017e je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b \u00fa\u010delem cel\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed \u2013 alespo\u0148 do t\u00e9 doby, ne\u017e si uv\u011bdom\u00edte, \u017ee p\u0159i sou\u010dasn\u00e9m tempu by Gr\u00f3nsku trvalo 27 000 let, ne\u017e by se \u00fapln\u011b roztavilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u017edycky m\u011b za\u010dne podez\u0159\u00edvat, kdy\u017e \u201ev\u011bdci\u201c prezentuj\u00ed trendy sahaj\u00edc\u00ed a\u017e do 70. let 20. stolet\u00ed, kdy Zem\u011b pro\u0161la t\u0159emi desetilet\u00edmi ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed a kdy se v\u011bdci, stejn\u011b jako hlavy st\u00e1t\u016f a vl\u00e1d, skute\u010dn\u011b ob\u00e1vali n\u00e1vratu mal\u00e9 doby ledov\u00e9. Je\u0161t\u011b podez\u0159\u00edvav\u011bj\u0161\u00edm se st\u00e1vaj\u00edm, kdy\u017e zjist\u00edm, \u017ee ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fadaje o gr\u00f3nsk\u00e9m ledov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edkrovu ve\u0159ejn\u011b poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z roku 1840.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2021 recenzovan\u00e1 studie vypo\u010d\u00edtala ro\u010dn\u00ed zm\u011bny v hmotnostn\u00ed bilanci ledov\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00edtu od roku 1840. (Siln\u00e1 \u010dern\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ra p\u0159edstavuje \u010dist\u00e9 zm\u011bny relevantn\u00ed pro tuto diskusi.)<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bilance
Bilance ledov\u00e9 hmoty Gr\u00f3nska v letech 1840 a\u017e 2020<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Graf potvrzuje, \u017ee ledov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkrov ztr\u00e1c\u00ed hmotu od 80. let 20. stolet\u00ed. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed v\u0161ak je, \u017ee t\u00e1n\u00ed za\u010dalo kolem roku 1900. Mezi lety 1920 a 1970 byl \u00fabytek ledu na podobn\u00e9 \u00farovni jako v posledn\u00edch t\u0159ech desetilet\u00edch \u2013 co\u017e nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee teplotn\u00ed z\u00e1znamy z cel\u00e9ho Gr\u00f3nska ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee tehdy bylo stejn\u011b teplo jako dnes. Mezit\u00edm, v 70. a 80. letech 20. stolet\u00ed, do\u0161lo k prudk\u00e9mu poklesu teploty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, nejedn\u00e1 se o nov\u00fd jev, jak se n\u00e1m sna\u017e\u00ed v\u011b\u0159it. Je to sou\u010d\u00e1st mnohem del\u0161\u00edho procesu, kter\u00fd za\u010dal d\u00e1vno p\u0159ed n\u00e1stupem tzv. glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho \u010dlov\u011bkem.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bdci ji\u017e dlouho na z\u00e1klad\u011b ledov\u00fdch jader a dal\u0161\u00edch d\u016fkaz\u016f prok\u00e1zali, \u017ee 19. stolet\u00ed bylo pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nejchladn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm obdob\u00edm v Gr\u00f3nsku od doby ledov\u00e9. B\u011bhem teplej\u0161\u00edch obdob\u00ed, jako byl st\u0159edov\u011bk, \u0159\u00edmsk\u00e1 doba a d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed tis\u00edcilet\u00ed, byl ledov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkrov men\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e dnes. Jak\u00fdkoli \u00fabytek ledov\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edkrovu za posledn\u00ed stolet\u00ed je nutn\u00e9 posuzovat v kontextu t\u011bchto dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edch cykl\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dadaje o ledov\u00e9 mas\u011b jsou i nad\u00e1le pravideln\u011b zve\u0159ej\u0148ov\u00e1ny a\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 \u00fadaje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0jsou nyn\u00ed k dispozici za rok kon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed srpnem 2026 \u2013 \u00fadaje o ledov\u00e9 pokr\u00fdvce Gr\u00f3nska se obvykle prezentuj\u00ed podle \u201ehydrologick\u00e9ho roku\u201c od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed do srpna.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"P\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00e9<\/figure>\n

Od studie z roku 2021 se \u00fabytek ledu d\u00e1le zpomalil a nyn\u00ed se vr\u00e1til na \u00farove\u0148 20. let 20. stolet\u00ed. V sez\u00f3n\u011b 2025\/26 do\u0161lo k m\u00edrn\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu hmotnosti ledu o 6 gigatun. Gr\u00f3nsko letos prakticky nem\u011blo l\u00e9to. Zat\u00edmco letn\u00ed t\u00e1n\u00ed obvykle za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 za\u010d\u00e1tkem \u010dervna, chladn\u00e9 a zasn\u011b\u017een\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed p\u0159etrv\u00e1valo a\u017e do \u010dervence. V d\u016fsledku toho bylo letn\u00ed t\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 200 gigatun ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e obvykle.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed, \u017ee chud\u00e9 l\u00e9to v Gr\u00f3nsku bylo sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 konfigurace tryskov\u00e9ho proud\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e1 n\u00e1m p\u0159inesla hork\u00e9 l\u00e9to. Zat\u00edmco na\u0161emu l\u00e9tu dominovaly syst\u00e9my vysok\u00e9ho tlaku, de\u0161tiv\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed se nad Atlantikem nad\u00e1le vyskytovalo a ovlivnilo i Gr\u00f3nsko.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0160est gigatun je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nepatrn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu obrovskou nejistotu, s n\u00ed\u017e jsou tyto v\u00fdpo\u010dty prov\u00e1d\u011bny. Neexistuje zp\u016fsob, jak p\u0159\u00edmo m\u011b\u0159it zm\u011bny v ledov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edkrovu; m\u00edsto toho se \u010d\u00edsla po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed pomoc\u00ed po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00fdch model\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsou dod\u00e1v\u00e1ny s daty, jako jsou sr\u00e1\u017eky a teplota. Odborn\u00edci p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee se \u010dasto mohou li\u0161it a\u017e o 100 gigatun.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b je naprosto jasn\u00e9, \u017ee gr\u00f3nsk\u00fd ledov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkrov je ve v\u00fdborn\u00e9m stavu. St\u00e1le je v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e po v\u011bt\u0161inu posledn\u00edch 10 000 let, a pokud se v\u016fbec zmen\u0161uje, tak ne rychleji ne\u017e p\u0159ed stolet\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Gr\u00f3nsk\u00fd ledov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edkrov taje v d\u016fsledku glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, nebo se n\u00e1m to alespo\u0148 tak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":115466,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3484,873,1213],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115465"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115465"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115465\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/115466"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115465"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115465"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115465"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}