{"id":115120,"date":"2026-09-06T00:30:54","date_gmt":"2026-09-05T22:30:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=115120"},"modified":"2026-09-05T17:47:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-05T15:47:23","slug":"alexandre-lemoine-eu-se-musi-pripravit-na-tuhou-zimu-a-nedostatek-plynu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/06\/alexandre-lemoine-eu-se-musi-pripravit-na-tuhou-zimu-a-nedostatek-plynu\/","title":{"rendered":"Alexandre Lemoine: EU se mus\u00ed p\u0159ipravit na tuhou zimu a nedostatek plynu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Evropsk\u00fd trh s plynem vstupuje do topn\u00e9 sez\u00f3ny ve stavu, kter\u00fd analytici st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji popisuj\u00ed jako p\u0159edkrizov\u00fd. Ceny zemn\u00edho plynu se ji\u017e n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f dr\u017e\u00ed na rekordn\u00edch maximech, \u00farovn\u011b podzemn\u00edch z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f jsou na historicky minim\u00e1ch a konkurence s Asi\u00ed o zkapaln\u011bn\u00fd zemn\u00ed plyn (LNG) se denn\u011b zost\u0159uje.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed se v\u0161ak objevila nov\u00e1 a alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed dynamika: plyn se st\u00e1v\u00e1 hlavn\u00edm tahounem inflace pro evropskou ekonomiku a ohro\u017euje nejen spot\u0159ebitele, ale celou architekturu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. To v\u0161e se d\u011bje na pozad\u00ed prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edho konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, kter\u00fd zablokoval Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a p\u0159ipravil Evropu o zna\u010dnou \u010d\u00e1st dod\u00e1vek LNG.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 unie se mus\u00ed p\u0159ipravit na riziko nedostatku plynu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u00edzk\u00fdch z\u00e1sob i tuh\u00e9 zimy,\u00a0<\/span>uvedl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v rozhovoru pro\u00a0<\/span>Euronews<\/span><\/em>\u00a0evropsk\u00fd komisa\u0159 pro oblast klimatu Wopke Hoekstra . Z\u00e1sobn\u00edky plynu jsou napln\u011bny pouze z 62 %, co\u017e je \u00farove\u0148, kter\u00e1 tu nebyla zaznamen\u00e1na za posledn\u00edch 15 let.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Wopke Hoekstra pouk\u00e1zal na to, \u017ee EU je z 80 % z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na dovozu plynu, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed zranitelnost. Situaci komplikuje blok\u00e1da Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, kter\u00fdm proch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b p\u011btina celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu s LNG.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed obavy vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 situace se z\u00e1sobami. Podle organizace Gas Infrastructure Europe byla<\/span><\/a>\u00a0m\u00edra napln\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sobn\u00edk\u016f v Evropsk\u00e9 unii b\u011bhem t\u0159et\u00ed dek\u00e1dy srpna\u00a0p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 63 %, co\u017e je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed zaznamenan\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 18 procentn\u00edch bod\u016f pod p\u011btilet\u00fdm pr\u016fm\u011brem. L\u00e9to, kter\u00e9 m\u011blo b\u00fdt obdob\u00edm aktivn\u00edho vst\u0159ikov\u00e1n\u00ed, m\u011blo opa\u010dn\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek: vlny veder zv\u00fd\u0161ily popt\u00e1vku po elekt\u0159in\u011b pro klimatizaci, zat\u00edmco sucho oslabilo v\u00fdrobu jadern\u00e9 a v\u011btrn\u00e9 energie. V d\u016fsledku toho byl plyn, kter\u00fd m\u011bl b\u00fdt uskladn\u011bn na zimu, ji\u017e sp\u00e1len v turb\u00edn\u00e1ch.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed probl\u00e9m nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 jen v objemu z\u00e1sob, ale tak\u00e9 v rychlosti jejich vy\u010derp\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Ani form\u00e1ln\u011b dostate\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1soby toti\u017e nezaru\u010duj\u00ed stabilitu, pokud jsou spot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1ny rychleji ne\u017e obvykle. A podm\u00ednky pro takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 existuj\u00ed: jev El Ni\u00f1o by mohl zajistit m\u00edrn\u00fd za\u010d\u00e1tek zimy v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, co\u017e by sice sn\u00ed\u017eilo popt\u00e1vku v tomto regionu, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 by zv\u00fd\u0161ilo riziko tu\u017e\u0161\u00ed a pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zimy v Evrop\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Konkurence v oblasti LNG mezi Evropou a Asi\u00ed se st\u00e1v\u00e1 ur\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem pro tvorbu cen. Goldman Sachs ve sv\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b\u00a0<\/span>uv\u00e1d\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee pro p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00e9ho objemu americk\u00e9ho LNG do EU mus\u00ed ceny plynu p\u0159ekro\u010dit 100 eur za megawatthodinu; to je jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak m\u016f\u017ee Evropa p\u0159ekonat asijskou popt\u00e1vku. P\u0159edpov\u011bdi se p\u0159itom pohybuj\u00ed mezi 90 a 120 eury za megawatthodinu a jejich maximum je v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b chladn\u00e9 zimy a pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edch omezen\u00ed dod\u00e1vek pom\u011brn\u011b realistick\u00e9.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edsla uveden\u00e1 odborn\u00edky z oboru jsou znepokojiv\u00e1. Evropa by mohla pot\u0159ebovat p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 64 miliard krychlov\u00fdch metr\u016f americk\u00e9ho LNG, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje asi 77 % celkov\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho exportu. Aby evropsk\u00fd trh p\u0159il\u00e1kal takov\u00fd pod\u00edl, mus\u00ed nab\u00edzet v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ziskovou mar\u017ei ne\u017e asijsk\u00fd trh. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee i v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b relativn\u00edho klidu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b z\u016fstanou ceny plynu na \u00farovn\u00edch, kter\u00e9 vyv\u00edjej\u00ed neust\u00e1l\u00fd tlak na pr\u016fmysl a dom\u00e1cnosti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b znepokojiv\u00e9 je, \u017ee ani vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b nezaru\u010duje uvoln\u011bn\u00ed tlaku na plyn. Pokud by se Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv otev\u0159el, ceny ropy by klesly, ale rizika spojen\u00e1 s plynem by p\u0159etrv\u00e1vala. Probl\u00e9m Evropy sah\u00e1 hloub\u011bji ne\u017e jen do politick\u00e9 situace: jde o struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit cenov\u011b dostupn\u00e9ho plynu z plynovod\u016f, kter\u00fd nelze v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu vyplnit. Z\u00e1kaz dovozu rusk\u00e9ho LNG, kter\u00fd vstoup\u00ed v platnost za\u010d\u00e1tkem roku 2027, tuto mezeru jen prohloub\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropa tak vstupuje do zimy s nejhor\u0161\u00edmi v\u00fdchoz\u00edmi podm\u00ednkami za posledn\u00ed roky. Za t\u00edmto sez\u00f3nn\u00edm nap\u011bt\u00edm se v\u0161ak skr\u00fdv\u00e1 hlub\u0161\u00ed trend: kurz stanoven\u00fd Bruselem na ja\u0159e 2022 ohledn\u011b opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00fdch uhlovod\u00edk\u016f (\u00a0<\/span>pl\u00e1n REPowerEU<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) nevedl k slibovan\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti. Naopak vytvo\u0159il struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1vislost na dra\u017e\u0161\u00edm a volatiln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm LNG, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vystavil evropsk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a dom\u00e1cnosti na milost a nemilost glob\u00e1ln\u00edm cenov\u00fdm v\u00fdkyv\u016fm. Evropa svou z\u00e1vislost na rusk\u00e9m plynu jako takovou neodstranila; stabilitu plynovod\u016f nahradila nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnost\u00ed trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alexandre Lemoine<\/span><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Evropsk\u00fd trh s plynem vstupuje do topn\u00e9 sez\u00f3ny ve stavu, kter\u00fd analytici st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji popisuj\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":115121,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[41,371,1008,1101],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115120"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115120"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115120\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/115121"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}