{"id":115036,"date":"2026-09-05T00:28:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T22:28:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=115036"},"modified":"2026-09-04T17:30:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T15:30:31","slug":"benjamin-picton-g20-planuje-pro-cinskou-ekonomiku-smrt-tisici-skrty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/05\/benjamin-picton-g20-planuje-pro-cinskou-ekonomiku-smrt-tisici-skrty\/","title":{"rendered":"Benjamin Picton: G20 pl\u00e1nuje pro \u010d\u00ednskou ekonomiku \u201esmrt tis\u00edci \u0161krty\u201c"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159irozen\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha<\/span><\/h2>\n

Minist\u0159i financ\u00ed a guvern\u00e9\u0159i centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank zem\u00ed G20 se spolu s hrstkou vysoce postaven\u00fdch gener\u00e1ln\u00edch \u0159editel\u016f se\u0161li v\u010dera v Asheville v Severn\u00ed Karol\u00edn\u011b. T\u00f3n udal americk\u00fd ministr financ\u00ed Scott Bessent,\u00a0<\/span>kter\u00fd spojenc\u016fm \u0159ekl, \u017ee jedinou cestou z jejich vysok\u00e9ho dluhov\u00e9ho b\u0159emene je r\u016fst a \u017ee mus\u00ed ud\u011blat v\u00edce pro boj proti struktur\u00e1ln\u00edm obchodn\u00edm nerovnov\u00e1h\u00e1m \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Posledn\u00ed bod je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00fd, jeliko\u017e Bessent v r\u00e1mci operace Ekonomick\u00fd vyd\u011bd\u011bnec prosazuje nov\u00e1 omezen\u00ed obchodu s \u00cdr\u00e1nem. \u010c\u00edna je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem \u00cdr\u00e1nu a hlavn\u00edm odb\u011bratelem zlevn\u011bn\u00e9 \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy, co\u017e \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9mu pr\u016fmyslu poskytovalo cenovou v\u00fdhodu oproti odb\u011bratel\u016fm dodr\u017euj\u00edc\u00edm st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed sankce. Bessent nyn\u00ed spojenc\u016fm \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee mus\u00ed p\u0159ehodnotit sv\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed podm\u00ednky s \u010c\u00ednou. Nevysloven\u00e9 \u201ejinak\u201c se za t\u00edmto sd\u011blen\u00edm skr\u00fdv\u00e1 prozat\u00edm nejasn\u00e9, ale sta\u010d\u00ed se zeptat kanadsk\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edho vyjednava\u010de, zda se USA v t\u00e9to ot\u00e1zce v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b staly asertivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

I bez tlaku ze strany USA se zd\u00e1, \u017ee si lid\u00e9 pomalu uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed, \u017ee Ricardova teorie komparativn\u00ed v\u00fdhody nen\u00ed strategi\u00ed pro maximalizaci u\u017eitku, pokud ne v\u0161ichni dodr\u017euj\u00ed pravidla. Ursula von der Leyenov\u00e1 ned\u00e1vno prohl\u00e1sila, \u017ee pokud se rekordn\u00ed obchodn\u00ed deficit EU s \u010c\u00ednou podstatn\u011b nesn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm obchodn\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, bude muset EU probl\u00e9m \u0159e\u0161it pomoc\u00ed regula\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b sv\u00e9 slavn\u00e9 \u201eobchodn\u00ed bazuky\u201c proti donucovac\u00edm ekonomick\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm. V z\u00e1kopech neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00ed voln\u00ed obchodn\u00edci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezi b\u00fdval\u00fdmi zast\u00e1nci voln\u00e9ho obchodu se objevuj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed zn\u00e1mky konverz\u00ed na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Austr\u00e1lie pr\u00e1v\u011b zavedla nov\u00e1 cla na \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00ed kola vyroben\u00e1 v \u010c\u00edn\u011b, aby ochr\u00e1nila sv\u016fj dom\u00e1c\u00ed pr\u016fmysl. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 koalice novoz\u00e9landsk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f hlin\u00edkov\u00fdch profil\u016f siln\u011b lobbuje u vl\u00e1dy, aby omezila dovoz \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch hlin\u00edkov\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f. Podle spole\u010dnost\u00ed je toto zbo\u017e\u00ed na dom\u00e1c\u00edm trhu dumpingov\u00e9 za ceny hluboko pod v\u00fdrobn\u00edmi n\u00e1klady, proto\u017ee jin\u00e9 trhy \u2013 USA, EU a Austr\u00e1lie \u2013 zavedly na tyto v\u00fdrobky cla, aby ochr\u00e1nily sv\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed odv\u011btv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spolu se systematick\u00fdm naru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm dod\u00e1vek levn\u00e9 energie z \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Venezuely do \u010c\u00edny ze strany USA se rostouc\u00ed bari\u00e9ry vstupu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed na trh za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed jevit jako smrt tis\u00edci \u0161krty pro \u010d\u00ednskou ekonomiku.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Bessent v\u010dera pouk\u00e1zal na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd obchodn\u00ed p\u0159ebytek, kter\u00fd odpov\u00edd\u00e1 jednomu procentu sv\u011btov\u00e9ho HDP, a\u00a0<\/span>uvedl, \u017ee se \u010c\u00edna sna\u017e\u00ed vy\u0159e\u0161it probl\u00e9m slab\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vky prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm exportu.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed indexy n\u00e1kupn\u00edch mana\u017eer\u016f zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 v\u010dera uk\u00e1zaly m\u00edrn\u00e9 zlep\u0161en\u00ed v \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m v\u00fdrobn\u00edm sektoru, ale dal\u0161\u00ed zhor\u0161en\u00ed v nev\u00fdrobn\u00edm sektoru \u2013 a\u00a0<\/span>oba sektory z\u016fstaly pod hranic\u00ed mezi poklesem a r\u016fstem.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Neofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fadaje zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 dnes v\u0161ak ukazuj\u00ed na expanzi pr\u016fmyslu, kter\u00e1 byla siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1vali dot\u00e1zan\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9. Pokud to odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj,\u00a0<\/span>probl\u00e9m \u010c\u00edny se slabou dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vkou a velk\u00fdm p\u0159ebytkem exportu, kter\u00fd mus\u00ed b\u00fdt absorbov\u00e1n popt\u00e1vkou z jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed, se jen zhor\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Pokud to v\u0161ak nen\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00fd obraz situace, pak i \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd exportn\u00ed motor st\u00e1le v\u00edce dosahuje sv\u00fdch limit\u016f a ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed c\u00edl r\u016fstu je v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zpochybn\u011bn.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 obchodn\u00ed omezen\u00ed zaveden\u00e1 jin\u00fdmi industrializovan\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi mohou vyvol\u00e1vat dojem, \u017ee se r\u00fdsuje spole\u010dn\u00fd postoj,\u00a0<\/span>bylo by chybou usuzovat, \u017ee se na tom shoduj\u00ed v\u0161echny zem\u011b G20.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

To se uk\u00e1zalo, kdy\u017e n\u011bkolik\u00a0<\/span>evropsk\u00fdch ministr\u016f financ\u00ed prohl\u00e1silo, \u017ee je \u00fa\u010dast rusk\u00e9ho ministra financ\u00ed Siluanova p\u0159ekvapila, a pohrozilo bojkotem \u201erodinn\u00e9 fotografie\u201c, pokud Rus nebude vylou\u010den.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee ve vn\u00edman\u00fdch z\u00e1jmech z\u00e1padn\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 rozd\u00edly. To bylo mo\u017en\u00e1 d\u00e1le zd\u016frazn\u011bno hlasov\u00e1n\u00edm na Islandu, v n\u011bm\u017e byl zam\u00edtnut n\u00e1vrh na obnoven\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o p\u0159istoupen\u00ed k EU \u2013\u00a0<\/span>zat\u00edmco Kanada se z\u00e1rove\u0148 sna\u017e\u00ed prohloubit sv\u00e9 vazby s EU a zam\u00edtla ned\u00e1vnou obchodn\u00ed dohodu s USA, aby si zachovala mo\u017enost preferen\u010dn\u00edho obchodu s \u010c\u00ednou.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed bod t\u0159en\u00ed vznikl, kdy\u017e\u00a0<\/span>Bessent z\u0159ejm\u011b nal\u00e9hal na Japonskou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku, aby kone\u010dn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, p\u0159esto\u017ee japonsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da opatrn\u011b varovala p\u0159ed ukvapen\u00fdmi kroky.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli ministr financ\u00ed USA prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee nebude Japonsk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bance \u0159\u00edkat, co m\u00e1 d\u011blat, n\u00e1sledn\u011b nazna\u010dil, \u017ee podle jeho n\u00e1zoru jsou refla\u010dn\u00ed politiky abenomiky zastaral\u00e9 a \u017ee koordinovan\u00e9 intervence na devizov\u00fdch trz\u00edch mohou m\u00edt jen omezen\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNemohu ovlivnit p\u0159irozenou rovnov\u00e1hu. Co m\u016f\u017eu ud\u011blat, je vyslat sign\u00e1l, a jak jsem ji\u017e \u0159ekl, m\u00e1m informace, kter\u00e9 trh nem\u00e1.\u201c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00fdnosy desetilet\u00fdch australsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f mezit\u00edm dos\u00e1hly nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b od roku 2011 \u2013 jen den pot\u00e9, co v\u00fdnosy desetilet\u00fdch francouzsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f vzrostly na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od roku 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdnosy desetilet\u00fdch americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f dosahuj\u00ed nov\u00fdch maxim za n\u011bkolik desetilet\u00ed, zat\u00edmco v\u00fdnos t\u0159icetilet\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f op\u011bt hroz\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout \u00farovn\u011b, kter\u00e9 dos\u00e1hl p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e Bessentovy koment\u00e1\u0159e sn\u00ed\u017eily jeho hodnotu ozn\u00e1men\u00edm, \u017ee americk\u00e9 ministerstvo financ\u00ed nejm\u00e9n\u011b zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed objem sv\u00fdch dlouhodob\u00fdch n\u00e1kup\u016f dluhopis\u016f. To bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b financov\u00e1no zv\u00fd\u0161enou emis\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho dluhopisu, co\u017e bude zase vy\u017eadovat podporu Kevina Warshe a Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu, aby se udr\u017eely n\u00e1klady na p\u016fj\u010dky v USA pom\u011brn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V deglobalizuj\u00edc\u00edm se sv\u011bt\u011b je Z\u00e1pad z bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f nucen znovu budovat sv\u016fj pr\u016fmysl \u2013 a to v dob\u011b, kdy st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh ji\u017e dos\u00e1hl \u00farovn\u011b, kter\u00e1 je jinak patrn\u00e1 i za v\u00e1lky, zat\u00edmco dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce surovin se st\u00e1le v\u00edce st\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1strojem mocensk\u00e9 politiky st\u00e1tu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto intervence mohou v\u00e9st bu\u010f k p\u0159\u00edsn\u00fdm omezen\u00edm dod\u00e1vek komodit \u2013 jako je tomu v sou\u010dasnosti u ropy a rafinovan\u00fdch paliv \u2013 nebo k p\u0159ebytku. N\u011bkdy se oboj\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee vyskytnout sou\u010dasn\u011b v r\u016fzn\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stech sv\u011bta, proto\u017ee nov\u00e9 obchodn\u00ed bari\u00e9ry br\u00e1n\u00ed voln\u00e9mu toku zbo\u017e\u00ed a trh\u016fm v nalezen\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00fd p\u0159ebytek v sou\u010dasnosti existuje v indon\u00e9sk\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu zpracov\u00e1n\u00ed niklu, kter\u00fd je podporov\u00e1n \u010c\u00ednou. To by se mohlo v budoucnu st\u00e1t i pro americkou energetiku, pokud ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 dohoda o zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed kontroly nad venezuelsk\u00fdmi ropn\u00fdmi rezervami spln\u00ed sv\u00e9 sliby.<\/span><\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed naru\u0161en\u00fdch trh\u016f bude st\u00e1le obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed naj\u00edt \u201ep\u0159irozenou rovnov\u00e1hu\u201c \u2013\u00a0<\/span>a pro ka\u017ed\u00e9ho, kdo se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 pouze na modely p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00ed voln\u00fd obchod a zapom\u00edn\u00e1 na mocenskou politiku, to bude nemo\u017en\u00e9.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159irozen\u00e1 rovnov\u00e1ha Minist\u0159i financ\u00ed a guvern\u00e9\u0159i centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank zem\u00ed G20 se spolu s hrstkou vysoce…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":115037,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,2145,50],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115036"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115036"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115036\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/115037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}