{"id":115000,"date":"2026-09-05T00:15:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T22:15:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=115000"},"modified":"2026-09-04T13:55:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T11:55:22","slug":"martin-armstrong-cely-financni-system-je-spoutan-statnim-dluhem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/05\/martin-armstrong-cely-financni-system-je-spoutan-statnim-dluhem\/","title":{"rendered":"Martin Armstrong: Cel\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m je spout\u00e1n st\u00e1tn\u00edm dluhem"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Banka pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed platby varuje, \u017ee t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 rekordn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhu a rostouc\u00ed role hedgeov\u00fdch fond\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch nebankovn\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed vytvo\u0159ily to, co naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201epropojen\u00edm fisk\u00e1ln\u011b-finan\u010dn\u00ed stability\u201c. Toto je o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd byrokratick\u00fd jazyk pro syst\u00e9m, v n\u011bm\u017e jsou vl\u00e1dy, banky, penzijn\u00ed fondy, poji\u0161\u0165ovny, hedgeov\u00e9 fondy a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky p\u0159ipout\u00e1ny ke stejn\u00e9 ho\u0159e vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhu. Kdy\u017e vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluhopisy zakol\u00edsaj\u00ed, ztr\u00e1ty nez\u016fstanou omezeny na n\u011bjak\u00fd \u00fa\u010det u ministerstva financ\u00ed. Rozlo\u017e\u00ed se mezi instituce, kter\u00e9 dr\u017e\u00ed \u00faspory ve\u0159ejnosti, a nakonec donut\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky volit mezi m\u011bnou a finan\u010dn\u00edm syst\u00e9mem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluh je pova\u017eov\u00e1n za z\u00e1klad modern\u00edch financ\u00ed. Banky pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy jako z\u00e1stavu, penzijn\u00ed fondy je dr\u017e\u00ed k pokryt\u00ed budouc\u00edch z\u00e1vazk\u016f, poji\u0161\u0165ovny se na n\u011b spol\u00e9haj\u00ed jako na zdroj p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f a hedgeov\u00e9 fondy s nimi obchoduj\u00ed s obrovskou p\u00e1kou prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm repo trh\u016f. Regula\u010dn\u00ed org\u00e1ny poskytuj\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edmu dluhu preferen\u010dn\u00ed zach\u00e1zen\u00ed, proto\u017ee jej prohl\u00e1sily za \u201ebezrizikov\u00fd\u201c, ale \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 investice nen\u00ed bezrizikov\u00e1. Toto ozna\u010den\u00ed existuje, proto\u017ee vl\u00e1da pot\u0159ebuje finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce k n\u00e1kupu jej\u00edch dluhopis\u016f a p\u0159ipu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluh se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t nestabiln\u00edm, by odhalilo podvod, kter\u00fd je z\u00e1kladem cel\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

BIS odhaduje, \u017ee pravd\u011bpodobnost v\u00fdskytu finan\u010dn\u00ed stresov\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti srovnateln\u00e9 s glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed kriz\u00ed do t\u0159\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b desetkr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, pokud je vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluh v pom\u011bru k HDP vysok\u00fd. Pravd\u011bpodobnost se zvy\u0161uje z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 0,3 procenta za podm\u00ednek ni\u017e\u0161\u00edho dluhu na 3,8 procenta za podm\u00ednek vysok\u00e9ho dluhu. Riziko d\u00e1le roste, kdy\u017e nebankovn\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce dr\u017e\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl na trhu, proto\u017ee mnoho z nich se spol\u00e9h\u00e1 na p\u00e1kov\u00fd efekt a kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee zmizet v okam\u017eiku, kdy se ceny dluhopis\u016f za\u010dnou pohybovat proti nim.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011b\u017en\u00fd v\u00fdprodej se tak m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t syst\u00e9movou ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy klesaj\u00ed, v\u00fdnosy rostou a fondy s p\u00e1kov\u00fdm efektem utrp\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty. V\u011b\u0159itel\u00e9 po\u017eaduj\u00ed dodate\u010dn\u00e9 zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, co\u017e nut\u00ed tyto fondy prod\u00e1vat v\u00edce cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f na klesaj\u00edc\u00edm trhu. Likvidita vysych\u00e1, n\u00e1klady na p\u016fj\u010dky prudce rostou a ztr\u00e1ty se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do bank a dal\u0161\u00edch instituc\u00ed propojen\u00fdch prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edch trh\u016f. Vl\u00e1da si pak st\u011b\u017euje, \u017ee trh \u201enefunguje\u201c, proto\u017ee investo\u0159i ji\u017e nekupuj\u00ed jej\u00ed dluhopisy za politicky p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 ceny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka je nucena zas\u00e1hnout, proto\u017ee p\u0159irozen\u00e1 korekce na trhu s dluhopisy by mohla zhroutit finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m. Nakupuje st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy, poskytuje nouzovou likviditu a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee toto opat\u0159en\u00ed je do\u010dasn\u00e9 a nesouvis\u00ed s vl\u00e1dn\u00edm financov\u00e1n\u00edm. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 finan\u010dn\u00ed pomoc v\u0161ak u\u010d\u00ed trh, \u017ee nadm\u011brn\u00e9 zadlu\u017een\u00ed je chr\u00e1n\u011bno, a tv\u016frce politik u\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee bezohledn\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 okam\u017eit\u00e9 d\u016fsledky. To vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed krizi t\u00edm, \u017ee podporuje pr\u00e1v\u011b to chov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zp\u016fsobilo tu prvn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

BIS otev\u0159en\u011b uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee opakovan\u00e9 intervence centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky mohou oslabit tr\u017en\u00ed discipl\u00ednu, pokud jde o vl\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje. Toto je za\u010darovan\u00fd kruh, ze kter\u00e9ho se nelze dostat. Vl\u00e1dy si nadm\u011brn\u011b p\u016fj\u010duj\u00ed, trhy s dluhopisy se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed nestabiln\u00edmi, centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky nestabilitu potla\u010duj\u00ed a politici interpretuj\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed pomoc jako povolen\u00ed k dal\u0161\u00edmu zadlu\u017een\u00ed. Dluh se d\u00e1le navy\u0161uje, dokud jak\u00fdkoli pokus o obnoven\u00ed poctiv\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb neohroz\u00ed banky, penzijn\u00ed fondy a trusty, kter\u00e9 byly k dr\u017een\u00ed tohoto dluhu povzbuzov\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m a dal\u0161\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky proto ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed kontrolu nad m\u011bnovou politikou. Zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb za \u00fa\u010delem boje proti inflaci sni\u017euje ceny dluhopis\u016f a zp\u016fsobuje ztr\u00e1ty finan\u010dn\u00edm instituc\u00edm, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e sou\u010dasn\u011b zvy\u0161uje \u00farokov\u00e9 platby vl\u00e1dy. Sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb nebo n\u00e1kupy dluhopis\u016f chr\u00e1n\u00ed strukturu dluhu, ale riskuj\u00ed oslaben\u00ed m\u011bny a op\u011btovn\u00e9 rozn\u00edcen\u00ed inflace. Mohou br\u00e1nit bu\u010f kupn\u00ed s\u00edlu pen\u011bz, nebo trh s vl\u00e1dn\u00edmi dluhopisy, ale samotn\u00e1 velikost dluhu nakonec znemo\u017en\u00ed br\u00e1nit oboj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krat\u0161\u00ed splatnosti dluh\u016f tuto past zhor\u0161uj\u00ed. Vl\u00e1dy se uchyluj\u00ed ke kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm p\u016fj\u010dk\u00e1m, aby se vyhnuly placen\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch dlouhodob\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, co\u017e ale znamen\u00e1, \u017ee je t\u0159eba refinancovat v\u00edce dluhu d\u0159\u00edve. V d\u016fsledku toho ka\u017ed\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb rychleji ovliv\u0148uje dluh vl\u00e1dy. Pokud investo\u0159i n\u00e1hle zpochybn\u00ed udr\u017eitelnost ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed, mus\u00ed se vl\u00e1da opakovan\u011b vracet na trh, zat\u00edmco kupuj\u00edc\u00ed po\u017eaduj\u00ed st\u00e1le rostouc\u00ed kompenzaci za riziko. Mechanismus refinancov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00fd kdysi maskoval insolvenci, ji nyn\u00ed urychluje.<\/span><\/p>\n

BIS o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee tlak na dluhy p\u0159etrv\u00e1 i po roce 2031, jeliko\u017e st\u00e1rnouc\u00ed populace zvy\u0161uje n\u00e1klady na d\u016fchody a zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010di, zat\u00edmco vl\u00e1dy po\u017eaduj\u00ed v\u00edce pen\u011bz na infrastrukturu, obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje energie a obranu. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto se cyklus v\u00e1lek a krize st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu prol\u00ednaj\u00ed. Vl\u00e1dy ji\u017e nejsou schopny financovat sv\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed sliby, p\u0159esto zvy\u0161uj\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 rozpo\u010dty, dotuj\u00ed strategick\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed a p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed se na vlekl\u00e9 geopolitick\u00e9 konflikty. V\u00e1lka neodstra\u0148uje star\u00e9 z\u00e1vazky; pouze p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 nov\u00e9 dluhy k t\u011bm st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fchodci a b\u011b\u017en\u00ed st\u0159adatel\u00e9 se nakonec ocitnou v k\u0159\u00ed\u017eov\u00e9 palb\u011b. Jejich penzijn\u00ed fondy dr\u017e\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy, proto\u017ee je regul\u00e1to\u0159i pova\u017euj\u00ed za bezpe\u010dn\u00e9, ale tyto dluhopisy ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed na hodnot\u011b, kdy\u017e \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby rostou nebo inflace roste. Kdy\u017e fondy utrp\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty, vl\u00e1da vyu\u017eije krize k ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed dodate\u010dn\u00e9 regulace, povinn\u00e9 alokace aktiv, omezen\u00ed v\u00fdb\u011br\u016f nebo vl\u00e1dn\u00edch z\u00e1chrann\u00fdch bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016f financovan\u00fdch je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm dluhem. Ob\u010dan\u00e9 budou zdan\u011bni, aby zachra\u0148ovali instituci, kter\u00e1 p\u0159i\u0161la o pen\u00edze financov\u00e1n\u00edm vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 tuto da\u0148 zavedla.<\/span><\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b zde vstupuj\u00ed do hry digit\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bny a kontrola kapit\u00e1lu. Pokud dobrovoln\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po vl\u00e1dn\u00edm dluhu ji\u017e nebude dostate\u010dn\u00e1, st\u00e1t bude hledat zp\u016fsoby, jak sm\u011brovat soukrom\u00e9 \u00faspory do schv\u00e1len\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f. Finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m zalo\u017een\u00fd na identifikovan\u00fdch digit\u00e1ln\u00edch pen\u011b\u017eenk\u00e1ch a programovateln\u00fdch platebn\u00edch cest\u00e1ch by podstatn\u011b usnadnil omezen\u00ed pohybu kapit\u00e1lu, omezen\u00ed v\u00fdplat a sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed pen\u011bz na vl\u00e1dn\u00ed z\u00e1vazky. Budou to naz\u00fdvat finan\u010dn\u00ed stabilitou, proto\u017ee p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee c\u00edlem je finan\u010dn\u00ed represe, by vyvolalo vzpouru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krize st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d finan\u010dn\u00edm syst\u00e9mem, proto\u017ee st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy se staly sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed v\u0161eho. Vl\u00e1da si pen\u00edze p\u016fj\u010dila, regul\u00e1to\u0159i prohl\u00e1sili dluh za bezpe\u010dn\u00fd, instituce ho koupily z ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch \u00faspor a centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky sl\u00edbily, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b probl\u00e9m\u016f zachran\u00ed trh. Cel\u00e1 struktura z\u00e1vis\u00ed na d\u016fv\u011b\u0159e, \u017ee vl\u00e1da v\u017edy dostoj\u00ed sv\u00fdm z\u00e1vazk\u016fm, ani\u017e by zni\u010dila hodnotu m\u011bny pou\u017eit\u00e9 k jejich splacen\u00ed. Jakmile se tato d\u016fv\u011bra zhrout\u00ed, v konven\u010dn\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00edm syst\u00e9mu u\u017e nebude kam se schovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Banka pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed platby varuje, \u017ee t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 rekordn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhu a rostouc\u00ed role hedgeov\u00fdch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":80085,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[503,1181,45,387],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115000"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115000"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115000\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}