{"id":114963,"date":"2026-09-04T04:56:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T02:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=114963"},"modified":"2026-09-04T04:56:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T02:56:09","slug":"svet-zapomina-jak-se-bat-jaderne-valky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/04\/svet-zapomina-jak-se-bat-jaderne-valky\/","title":{"rendered":"Sv\u011bt zapom\u00edn\u00e1, jak se b\u00e1t jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

S t\u00edm, jak se hranice eroduj\u00ed a kontrola zbrojen\u00ed se hrout\u00ed, jadern\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed ztr\u00e1c\u00ed sv\u016fj vliv. Nebezpe\u010d\u00edm nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt jen katastrofa, ale normalizace<\/h3>\n

Vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed mezi velmocemi po desetilet\u00ed poskytovalo sv\u011btu ur\u010ditou m\u00edru p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e jadern\u00fd faktor byl od poloviny minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed j\u00e1drem tohoto syst\u00e9mu. Velmoci se navz\u00e1jem omezovaly a t\u00edm omezovaly i samy sebe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1pali, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee n\u00e9st nep\u0159ijateln\u00e1 rizika, a proto byl\u00a0<\/span>\u201estrategick\u00e1 stabilita\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0uklid\u0148uj\u00edc\u00edm term\u00ednem pro to, co ve skute\u010dnosti p\u0159edstavovalo schopnost vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed instituce rostly kolem t\u00e9to rovnov\u00e1hy jako houby kolem kmene stromu, ale pod v\u0161emi dohodami a diplomatick\u00fdm jazykem se skr\u00fdvalo n\u011bco mnohem jednodu\u0161\u0161\u00edho: strach z d\u016fsledk\u016f p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho konfliktu mezi velmocemi. Nyn\u00ed se v\u0161ak tento syst\u00e9m rozpad\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnoz\u00ed se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee probl\u00e9mem je pr\u00e1v\u011b ztr\u00e1ta strachu, jeliko\u017e politick\u00e9 elity p\u0159estaly v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka je skute\u010dn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1, a proto klesaj\u00edc\u00ed zdr\u017eenlivost, kterou vid\u00edme v konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b, na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b i v Asii.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zjevn\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm je proto p\u0159ipomenout v\u0161em, jak d\u011bsiv\u00e1 by jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka byla. Argumentuje se, \u017ee pokud se obnov\u00ed strach, st\u00e1ty op\u011bt projev\u00ed zdr\u017eenlivost a budou p\u0159ipraveny vyjedn\u00e1vat nov\u00e1 pravidla. V tom je logika, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 je v tom obrovsk\u00e9 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co se stane, kdy\u017e budou jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b skute\u010dn\u011b pou\u017eity? Bu\u010f zp\u016fsob\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b tu katastrofu, kter\u00e9 se lidstvo ob\u00e1v\u00e1 u\u017e osm desetilet\u00ed, s nenapraviteln\u00fdmi n\u00e1sledky, nebo se stane n\u011bco zcela jin\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bnap\u0159\u00edklad dojde k stra\u0161liv\u00e9 zk\u00e1ze, ale sv\u011bt neskon\u010d\u00ed a zbra\u0148 ani nezaru\u010d\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b mohly p\u0159estat b\u00fdt prim\u00e1rn\u011b politickou a psychologickou bari\u00e9rou a st\u00e1t se pouze dal\u0161\u00edm prost\u0159edkem veden\u00ed v\u00e1lky, by\u0165 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b siln\u00fdm. Obnovilo by to strach? Nebo by st\u00e1ty m\u00edsto toho urychlily v\u00fdvoj jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed ur\u010den\u00fdch pro efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vyu\u017eit\u00ed na boji\u0161ti? V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 atmosf\u00e9\u0159e rostouc\u00ed bezohlednosti je oboj\u00ed mysliteln\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b jsou nejmocn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi zbran\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 lidstvo vynalezlo, a byly vytvo\u0159eny k veden\u00ed v\u00e1lek, ale zjistili jsme, \u017ee mohou plnit i jinou funkci t\u00edm, \u017ee zabr\u00e1n\u00ed vzniku nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch a nejni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00edch v\u00e1lek. Dnes se v\u0161ak zd\u00e1, \u017ee se vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed vrac\u00ed k v\u00fdchoz\u00edmu bodu, \u017ee zbra\u0148 je zbra\u0148, i kdy\u017e je jadern\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee zbran\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9my mezi st\u00e1ty, na n\u011b v\u0161ak klade nemo\u017en\u00e9 n\u00e1roky, zejm\u00e9na kdy\u017e se v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed samo o sob\u011b st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le asymetri\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a v\u0161udyp\u0159\u00edtomn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1ty se t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed toho, co si nemohou dovolit ztratit. Eroze hranic, kdysi oslavovan\u00e1 jako jeden z velk\u00fdch \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f liber\u00e1ln\u00ed globalizace, nab\u00fdv\u00e1 mnohem alarmuj\u00edc\u00edho charakteru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Digit\u00e1ln\u00ed sv\u011bt je ze sv\u00e9 podstaty bezhrani\u010dn\u00ed, proto\u017ee drony p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00ed d\u011blic\u00ed linie st\u00e1le snadn\u011bji a nov\u00e9 technologie neust\u00e1le podkop\u00e1vaj\u00ed schopnost st\u00e1t\u016f kontrolovat a br\u00e1nit sv\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed a v extr\u00e9mn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edpadech dokonce i definovat, kde le\u017e\u00ed smyslupln\u00e9 hranice.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1ty se s touto ztr\u00e1tou kontroly prost\u011b nesm\u00ed\u0159\u00ed, tak\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 akce vyvol\u00e1 reakci, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee boj se zost\u0159\u00ed. A co je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, boji\u0161t\u011b bude st\u00e1le v\u00edce zahrnovat t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017edou sf\u00e9ru lidsk\u00e9 \u010dinnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co za takov\u00fdch podm\u00ednek v\u016fbec znamen\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>\u201estrategick\u00e1 stabilita\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0a jak ji lze udr\u017eet?<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka sama o sob\u011b se st\u00e1le v\u00edce podob\u00e1 nikoli prost\u0159edku k \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konflikt\u016f, ale trval\u00e9 form\u011b interakce, ba dokonce koexistence, a nemus\u00ed v n\u00ed doj\u00edt k rozhodn\u00e9mu v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed ani por\u00e1\u017ece, ale pouze k opakovan\u00fdm pokus\u016fm o vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed protivn\u00edka ekonomicky, vojensky, politicky a psychologicky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dlouhodob\u00e9 oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ak vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 dva protich\u016fdn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinky. St\u00e1ty se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed zku\u0161en\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi a schopn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi sn\u00e1\u0161et konfrontaci, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 se hromad\u00ed \u00fanava spolu s poku\u0161en\u00edm ukon\u010dit zd\u00e1nliv\u011b nekone\u010dn\u00fd boj s\u00e1hnut\u00edm po nejrozhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm a nejni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00edm dostupn\u00e9m argumentu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sv\u011bt ztr\u00e1c\u00ed syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky, kter\u00e9 kdysi takov\u00e9 impulzy omezovaly, a st\u00e1le v\u00edce se podob\u00e1 loveck\u00e9mu rev\u00edru b\u011bhem loveck\u00e9 sez\u00f3ny.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010ceho se tedy m\u016f\u017eeme dr\u017eet? Prozat\u00edm snad jen selsk\u00e9ho rozumu a p\u0159esn\u00e9ho posouzen\u00ed vztahu mezi na\u0161imi ambicemi a na\u0161imi skute\u010dn\u00fdmi schopnostmi. Je to k\u0159ehk\u00e9 z\u00e1chrann\u00e9 lano, ale m\u016f\u017ee sta\u010dit k tomu, abychom v plamenech nerozdm\u00fdch\u00e1vali a m\u00edsto toho se jim vyhnuli.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alespo\u0148 do t\u00e9 doby, ne\u017e si ka\u017ed\u00fd znovu uv\u011bdom\u00ed hodnotu zdr\u017eenlivosti, v\u010detn\u011b t\u00e9 sebeovl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od\u00a0<\/span>Fjodora Lukjanova<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, \u0161\u00e9fredaktora \u010dasopisu Rusko v glob\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech, p\u0159edsedy prezidia Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrannou politiku a \u0159editele v\u00fdzkumu Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho diskusn\u00edho klubu Valdaj.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

\"Fjodor<\/a><\/div>\n
\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S t\u00edm, jak se hranice eroduj\u00ed a kontrola zbrojen\u00ed se hrout\u00ed, jadern\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed ztr\u00e1c\u00ed sv\u016fj…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1652,794,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114963"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114963\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}