{"id":114932,"date":"2026-09-04T00:20:44","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T22:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=114932"},"modified":"2026-09-03T13:00:59","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T11:00:59","slug":"dalsi-iransky-plan-je-brutalni-v-izraeli-se-zvazuji-scenare-ktere-prekracuji-vsechny-moralni-hranice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/04\/dalsi-iransky-plan-je-brutalni-v-izraeli-se-zvazuji-scenare-ktere-prekracuji-vsechny-moralni-hranice\/","title":{"rendered":"Dal\u0161\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd pl\u00e1n je brut\u00e1ln\u00ed: V Izraeli se zva\u017euj\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00ed v\u0161echny mor\u00e1ln\u00ed hranice"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u0160est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v\u00e1lky, masivn\u00ed n\u00e1lety, st\u00edha\u010dky F-35, bombard\u00e9ry B-2 a drtiv\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159evaha \u2013 a p\u0159esto \u00cdr\u00e1n st\u00e1le stoj\u00ed. Pozoruhodn\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek v\u00a0<\/span>Jerusalem Post<\/span><\/em>\u00a0za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b t\u00edmto p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00edm . Z\u00e1v\u011br v\u0161ak nezn\u00ed: v\u00e1lka selhala, proto se mus\u00ed vr\u00e1tit diplomacie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Naopak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed se zd\u00e1, \u017ee se uva\u017euje o tom, jak zas\u00e1hnout \u00cdr\u00e1n tam, kde bomby dosud nesta\u010dily:\u00a0<\/span>ve vnit\u0159n\u00ed soudr\u017enosti samotn\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V \u010dl\u00e1nku zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9m 30. srpna bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed analytik A. J. Jaff nast\u00ednil t\u0159i mo\u017enosti pro dal\u0161\u00ed f\u00e1zi \u00edr\u00e1nsko-ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Tyto mo\u017enosti sahaj\u00ed nad r\u00e1mec jadern\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, raketov\u00fdch z\u00e1kladn nebo zm\u011bny re\u017eimu v Teher\u00e1nu. Jaffova vize jde je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1le: v extr\u00e9mn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i by mohl b\u00fdt \u00cdr\u00e1n \u00fazemn\u011b rozd\u011blen, \u010c\u00edna odd\u011blena od Teher\u00e1nu a z\u0159\u00edzeny americk\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 by mohly takovou reorganizaci v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby vynutit vojensk\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hned na za\u010d\u00e1tku je t\u0159eba uv\u00e9st kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd bod: Tento text nen\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm izraelsk\u00fdm ani americk\u00fdm v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm pl\u00e1nem<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Jaff p\u00ed\u0161e jako analytik a koment\u00e1tor. Jeho n\u00e1vrhy jsou jeho vlastn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale pr\u00e1v\u011b proto je tento \u010dl\u00e1nek tak odhaluj\u00edc\u00ed. Ukazuje, jak\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e se nyn\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u011b diskutuj\u00ed v izraelsk\u00e9m bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm politick\u00e9m prost\u0159ed\u00ed \u2013 a jak moc se debata ji\u017e odch\u00fdlila od p\u016fvodn\u00edho ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jaff za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 pozoruhodn\u00fdm p\u0159izn\u00e1n\u00edm. Po v\u00edce ne\u017e 180 dnech v\u00e1lky a po tom, co popisuje jako nejintenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed americkou leteckou kampa\u0148 od v\u00e1lky v Ir\u00e1ku v roce 2003, se vojensk\u00e1 kapacita \u00cdr\u00e1nu nezhroutila. Leteck\u00e1 s\u00edla ani nevy\u0159e\u0161ila \u201einstitucion\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u201c, ani nedonutila Teher\u00e1n k po\u017eadovan\u00fdm jedn\u00e1n\u00edm. Pentagon st\u00e1le postr\u00e1d\u00e1 prost\u0159edky k rozhodn\u011bmu ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je \u00fa\u017easn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed odpov\u011b\u010f nezn\u00ed, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla dos\u00e1hla sv\u00fdch limit\u016f. Odpov\u011b\u010f zn\u00ed:\u00a0<\/span>v\u00e1lka pak mus\u00ed pokra\u010dovat na jin\u00e9 \u00farovni.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

A tato \u00farove\u0148 je podstatn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jaff nazna\u010duje, \u017ee by americk\u00fd Kongres mohl uznat nez\u00e1vislost \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch Kurd\u016f, Ahv\u00e1zijsk\u00fdch Arab\u016f a Bal\u00fad\u017e\u016f. To by politicky pos\u00edlilo separatistick\u00e9 s\u00edly v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a donutilo Teher\u00e1n u\u010dinit existen\u010dn\u00ed volbu: \u00fastupky v jadern\u00e9m programu, s region\u00e1ln\u00edmi spojenci a v Hormuzsk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu \u2013 nebo riziko rozpadu \u00cdr\u00e1nu na n\u011bkolik st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Autor pozoruhodn\u011b otev\u0159en\u011b hovo\u0159\u00ed o tom, o co jde.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zm\u011bna re\u017eimu by pouze nahradila veden\u00ed a umo\u017enila \u00cdr\u00e1nu pokra\u010dovat jako st\u00e1t. Rozd\u011blen\u00ed by naopak naru\u0161ilo samotn\u00fd \u00fazemn\u00ed r\u00e1mec. To z\u00e1sadn\u011b posouv\u00e1 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed c\u00edl v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

U\u017e nejde jen o to:\u00a0<\/span>\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da mus\u00ed padnout.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sp\u00ed\u0161e:\u00a0<\/span>\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00fd st\u00e1t ve sv\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 podob\u011b by mohl p\u0159estat existovat.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Toto nen\u00ed ledabyl\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed. Jaff v\u00fdslovn\u011b popisuje rozd\u011blen\u00ed jako prost\u0159edek k politick\u00e9mu, mor\u00e1ln\u00edmu a psychologick\u00e9mu rozbit\u00ed st\u00e1tu a k podkop\u00e1n\u00ed jeho autority na jeho vlastn\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pozoruhodn\u00e9 je, \u017ee tato my\u0161lenka pro n\u011bj nen\u00ed nov\u00e1. Ji\u017e v b\u0159eznu tent\u00fd\u017e autor v\u00a0<\/span>Jerusalem Post<\/span><\/em>\u00a0tvrdil , \u017ee kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 je \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 \u201eperiferie\u201c a prosazoval autonomii Kurd\u016f, Bal\u00fa\u010d\u016f a Ahv\u00e1z\u016f, stejn\u011b jako bezletovou z\u00f3nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vid\u00edme tedy v\u00fdvoj v argumentaci: To, co bylo p\u016fvodn\u011b diskutov\u00e1no jako autonomie a tlak na perifern\u00ed regiony, je nyn\u00ed otev\u0159en\u011b zva\u017eov\u00e1no jako mo\u017enost \u00fazemn\u00edho rozd\u011blen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale s t\u00edm by byl obrovsk\u00fd probl\u00e9m. Kdo by takovou situaci vojensky vynucoval?<\/span><\/p>\n

Jaff uv\u00e1d\u00ed odhady 750 000 a\u017e 1,5 milionu americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f pro \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou pozemn\u00ed operaci proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Aktivn\u00ed americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da je na to p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mal\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

A zde p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh nab\u00fdv\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dystopick\u00e9ho sm\u011bru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00fd lid tuto v\u00e1lku nep\u0159ijal, p\u00ed\u0161e Jaff. Pentagonu se nepoda\u0159ilo ji Ameri\u010dan\u016fm politicky \u201eprodat\u201c. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 jsou miliony mlad\u00fdch Ameri\u010dan\u016f siln\u011b zadlu\u017een\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tato ekonomick\u00e1 t\u00ed\u017eiv\u00e1 situace m\u00e1 b\u00fdt vyu\u017eita jako n\u00e1borov\u00fd n\u00e1stroj.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jaff navrhuje vl\u00e1dn\u00ed program na oddlu\u017een\u00ed: Mlad\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 by se mohli zcela zbavit sv\u00fdch studentsk\u00fdch, kreditn\u00edch, automobilov\u00fdch a dal\u0161\u00edch dluh\u016f, pokud vykonaj\u00ed 24 nebo 36 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f vojensk\u00e9 slu\u017eby.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010clov\u011bk mus\u00ed pochopit, co se zde navrhuje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mlad\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk se zadlu\u017e\u00ed kv\u016fli vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed, autu nebo prost\u011b jen kv\u016fli \u017eivotu. St\u00e1t mu pak nab\u00eddne cestu ven z t\u00e9to dluhov\u00e9 pasti \u2013 pod podm\u00ednkou, \u017ee si obl\u00e9kne uniformu a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b bude posl\u00e1n do v\u00e1lky proti zemi s v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 miliony obyvatel.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u00e1m autor uzn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee mor\u00e1ln\u00ed rozm\u011br je \u201enep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fd\u201c. Jeho odpov\u011b\u010f je v\u0161ak pozoruhodn\u011b st\u0159\u00edzliv\u00e1: st\u00e1ty produkuj\u00ed voj\u00e1ky, kter\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed, pr\u00e1v\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm pob\u00eddek, kter\u00e9 funguj\u00ed s jejich obyvatelstvem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Soukrom\u00fd dluh jedn\u00e9 generace se tedy nepova\u017euje za soci\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9m. Je s n\u00edm zach\u00e1zeno jako s\u00a0<\/span>vojensk\u00fdm zdrojem<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

A tito voj\u00e1ci by v Jaffov\u011b sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i m\u011bli specifickou funkci: Pokud by Teher\u00e1n nekapituloval pod tlakem ohro\u017een\u00e9ho \u00fazemn\u00edho rozd\u011blen\u00ed, americk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla pos\u00edlen\u00e1 oddlu\u017een\u00edm by mohla toto rozd\u011blen\u00ed vojensky vynutit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Toto je mnohem v\u00edc ne\u017e jen teoretick\u00e1 diskuse o sankc\u00edch. Je to popis mo\u017en\u00e9ho mechanismu pro rozs\u00e1hlou pozemn\u00ed v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale ani s t\u00edm nen\u00ed pl\u00e1n kompletn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n m\u00e1 v \u010c\u00edn\u011b siln\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho a geopolitick\u00e9ho partnera. Proto by podle Jaffova n\u00e1vrhu m\u011bl Washington Pekingu nab\u00eddnout dohodu: \u010c\u00edna by si i po politick\u00e9 restrukturalizaci \u00cdr\u00e1nu zachovala p\u0159\u00edstup k \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rop\u011b \u2013 na opl\u00e1tku by Peking Teher\u00e1nu p\u0159estal poskytovat diplomatickou a materi\u00e1ln\u00ed podporu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Autor dokonce do hry za\u0159azuje Tchaj-wan jako mo\u017en\u00fd vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed n\u00e1stroj.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ropa v\u00fdm\u011bnou za \u010d\u00ednskou neutralitu. Mo\u017en\u00e9 \u00fastupky ohledn\u011b Tchaj-wanu v\u00fdm\u011bnou za strategickou izolaci Teher\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

O \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m lidu se diskutuje, jako by to byly figurky na geopolitick\u00e9 \u0161achovnici. Hranice, men\u0161iny, ropa, dluh a dokonce i budoucnost Tchaj-wanu se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed prom\u011bnn\u00fdmi ve strategii, jej\u00ed\u017e skute\u010dn\u00fd c\u00edl autor nakonec formuluje s pozoruhodnou up\u0159\u00edmnost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka neskon\u010d\u00ed podeps\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Skon\u010d\u00ed, a\u017e bude naru\u0161ena\u00a0<\/span>institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed soudr\u017enost \u00cdr\u00e1nu<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0. Toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed odhaluje skute\u010dn\u00fd rozsah t\u011bchto \u00favah.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee se u\u017e nejedn\u00e1 jen o \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd program. U\u017e se nejedn\u00e1 jen o rakety. U\u017e se nejedn\u00e1 jen o Revolu\u010dn\u00ed gardy. A zjevn\u011b ani nutn\u011b jen o Isl\u00e1mskou republiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou je, zda bude \u00cdr\u00e1n i po tom st\u00e1le existovat jako funguj\u00edc\u00ed, \u00fazemn\u011b soudr\u017en\u00fd st\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n by v\u0161ak byl zcela jin\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00edce ne\u017e 90 milion\u016f obyvatel, obrovsk\u00e1 geografick\u00e1 rozloha, etnicky rozmanit\u00e9 regiony, rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed hranice s P\u00e1kist\u00e1nem, Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem, Turkmenist\u00e1nem, \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed, Tureckem a Ir\u00e1kem.<\/span><\/p>\n

My\u0161lenka \u00famysln\u00e9ho rozd\u011blen\u00ed takov\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 mo\u017enosti jeho kontroly by byla geopolitick\u00fdm experimentem s nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky daleko za hranicemi Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

A pr\u00e1v\u011b proto je tento \u010dl\u00e1nek tak pou\u010dn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne proto, \u017ee by dok\u00e1zal, \u017ee Benjamin Netanjahu nebo Donald Trump tento pl\u00e1n z\u00edtra provedou. On to v\u00fdslovn\u011b ned\u011bl\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale proto\u017ee to ukazuje,\u00a0<\/span>jak moc se strategick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed mezit\u00edm posunulo<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Snad nejd\u011bsiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed na tom je chlad, s n\u00edm\u017e jsou tyto \u00favahy prezentov\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Miliony \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f by \u010delily zcela nejist\u00e9 budoucnosti, pokud by jejich zem\u011b byla \u00fazemn\u011b rozd\u011blena. Americk\u00e9 rodiny by musely n\u00e9st d\u016fsledky gigantick\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Kurdov\u00e9, Bal\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 a Arabov\u00e9 by se stali n\u00e1stroji ve velmocensk\u00e9 strategii. \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 b\u00fdt ukoupena ropou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Metody se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed radik\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0160est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v\u00e1lky, masivn\u00ed n\u00e1lety, st\u00edha\u010dky F-35, bombard\u00e9ry B-2 a drtiv\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159evaha \u2013 a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":114933,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[38,107,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114932"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114932"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114932\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/114933"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}