{"id":114856,"date":"2026-09-03T00:28:11","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T22:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=114856"},"modified":"2026-09-02T18:37:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T16:37:52","slug":"german-gorraiz-lopez-meli-bychom-se-obavat-el-nina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/03\/german-gorraiz-lopez-meli-bychom-se-obavat-el-nina\/","title":{"rendered":"Germ\u00e1n Gorraiz L\u00f3pez: M\u011bli bychom se ob\u00e1vat El Ni\u00f1a?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Podle zpr\u00e1vy koordinovan\u00e9 Sv\u011btovou meteorologickou organizac\u00ed (WMO) \u201eplaneta zdaleka nespl\u0148uje sv\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 c\u00edle a tato situace ohro\u017euje glob\u00e1ln\u00ed iniciativy v boji proti hladu, chudob\u011b a zdravotn\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016fm, zlep\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu k \u010dist\u00e9 vod\u011b a energii a \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed mnoha dal\u0161\u00edch aspekt\u016f udr\u017eiteln\u00e9ho rozvoje.\u201c O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee tento znepokojiv\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 se je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edchodem El Ni\u00f1a.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Co je El Ni\u00f1o? Klimatick\u00fd jev zn\u00e1m\u00fd jako El Ni\u00f1o souvis\u00ed s m\u00edrn\u00fdm oteplov\u00e1n\u00edm vod v\u00fdchodn\u00edho rovn\u00edkov\u00e9ho Pacifiku a podle FAO by mohl zp\u016fsobit probl\u00e9my v \u010d\u00e1stech Afriky, St\u0159edn\u00ed Ameriky a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie. FAO \u00fadajn\u011b ji\u017e p\u0159ipravila p\u0159edb\u011b\u017enou reakci na potravinovou krizi, kterou p\u0159\u00edchod El Ni\u00f1a zp\u016fsob\u00ed. Ta by podle WMO mohla vrcholit koncem roku 2026 a trvat do podzimu 2027. P\u0159edchoz\u00ed jev El Ni\u00f1o, kter\u00fd se vyskytoval v letech 2015 a\u017e 2017, m\u011bl ni\u010div\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro potravinovou bezpe\u010dnost, \u017eivobyt\u00ed, v\u00fd\u017eivu a zdrav\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 100 milion\u016f lid\u00ed ve 23 zem\u00edch sv\u011bta.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sm\u011b\u0159uje k \u201eSuper Ni\u00f1o\u201c? Sv\u011btov\u00e1 meteorologick\u00e1 organizace (WMO) a americk\u00fd N\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ad pro oce\u00e1n a atmosf\u00e9ru (NOAA) vydaly varov\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee se tato epizoda r\u00fdsuje jako \u201eSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201c s 81% pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed dosa\u017een\u00ed \u201evelmi siln\u00e9\u201c intenzity mezi \u0159\u00edjnem a prosincem leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Podle t\u011bchto agentur existuje 69% \u0161ance, \u017ee tato ud\u00e1lost p\u0159ekon\u00e1 svou intenzitou v\u0161echny ud\u00e1losti zaznamenan\u00e9 od roku 1950. Obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b znepokojiv\u00e9 je, \u017ee se vyv\u00edj\u00ed na planet\u011b, kter\u00e1 je ji\u017e vystavena rekordn\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00edm teplot\u00e1m v d\u016fsledku klimatick\u00fdch zm\u011bn zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch \u010dlov\u011bkem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Je toto \u201eSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201c d\u016fvodem k obav\u00e1m? \u0158\u00edk\u00e1 se, \u017ee toto \u201eSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201c se vyzna\u010duje:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed teploty: O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se rozs\u00e1hl\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst teplot ve velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u011bta, proto\u017ee teplo nahromad\u011bn\u00e9 v oce\u00e1nech bude \u017eivit je\u0161t\u011b intenzivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a del\u0161\u00ed vlny veder na pevnine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159\u00edvalov\u00e9 de\u0161t\u011b a z\u00e1plavy: regiony jako severn\u00ed Ji\u017en\u00ed Amerika (zejm\u00e9na Peru a Ekv\u00e1dor), v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Afrika a ji\u017en\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u010del\u00ed velmi vysok\u00e9mu riziku extr\u00e9mn\u00edch sr\u00e1\u017eek, z\u00e1plav a nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho vzestupu hladiny mo\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sucha a lesn\u00ed po\u017e\u00e1ry: Naopak \u010d\u00e1sti Austr\u00e1lie, Indon\u00e9sie, ji\u017en\u00edho Mexika a St\u0159edn\u00ed Ameriky za\u017eij\u00ed siln\u00e1 sucha. To vysu\u0161\u00ed p\u016fdu a zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed po\u010det rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch lesn\u00edch po\u017e\u00e1r\u016f. Dopad na potraviny a ekonomiku: Abnorm\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst teploty vody ji\u017e ovliv\u0148uje mo\u0159sk\u00e9 ekosyst\u00e9my (co\u017e vede nap\u0159\u00edklad k pozastaven\u00ed \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch rybolovn\u00fdch \u010dinnost\u00ed v Tich\u00e9m oce\u00e1nu). Riziko hladomoru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Sucha a z\u00e1plavy nav\u00edc v\u00e1\u017en\u011b po\u0161kod\u00ed celosv\u011btov\u00e9 plodiny, jako je k\u00e1va a kuku\u0159ice, a zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed ceny potravin. Tuto situaci je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161uje skute\u010dnost, \u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e9 ceny obil\u00ed od srpna vzrostly ji\u017e o v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 % a dos\u00e1hly nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b za posledn\u00ed t\u0159i roky, a to kv\u016fli blok\u00e1d\u011b \u010dernomo\u0159sk\u00fdch lodn\u00edch tras (v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b), odklonu lod\u00ed p\u0159es Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e a \u0161patn\u00e9 \u00farod\u011b v Evrop\u011b, Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, Austr\u00e1lii a Indii.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span dir=\"auto\">Odhaduje se tedy, \u017ee n\u00e1r\u016fst cen z\u00e1kladn\u00edch potravin v roce 2026 dos\u00e1hne 11,8 % a v roce 2027 dal\u0161\u00edch 4,8 %, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e cena p\u0161enice by oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu roku vzrostla o 36 %. To by m\u011blo vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek v podob\u011b prudk\u00e9 inflace a mohlo by to uvrhnout v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 milion\u016f lid\u00ed do hladomoru, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se celkov\u00fd po\u010det lid\u00ed ohro\u017een\u00fdch hladomorem zv\u00fd\u0161il ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 225 milion\u016f na 274 milion\u016f, jak odhaduje Sv\u011btov\u00fd potravinov\u00fd program (WFP), a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by to postihlo 45 % zem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span dir=\"auto\"><a href=\"https:\/\/observateur-continental.fr\/?module=articles&amp;action=view&amp;id=8114\">Germ\u00e1n Gorraiz L\u00f3pez<\/a> , politick\u00fd analytik<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Podle zpr\u00e1vy koordinovan\u00e9 Sv\u011btovou meteorologickou organizac\u00ed (WMO) \u201eplaneta zdaleka nespl\u0148uje sv\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 c\u00edle a tato&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":114857,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[11562,873,2700],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114856"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114856\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/114857"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}