{"id":114813,"date":"2026-09-03T00:11:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T22:11:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=114813"},"modified":"2026-09-02T12:48:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T10:48:17","slug":"andrew-korybko-incident-v-lipsku-ma-vsechny-znaky-utoku-pod-falesnou-vlajkou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/03\/andrew-korybko-incident-v-lipsku-ma-vsechny-znaky-utoku-pod-falesnou-vlajkou\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Incident v Lipsku m\u00e1 v\u0161echny znaky \u00fatoku pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bylo to provedeno s c\u00edlem ospravedlnit p\u0159echod n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, odv\u00e9st pozornost od v\u00fdsledn\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f a legitimizovat budouc\u00ed v\u00e1\u017enou eskalaci proti Rusku.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko obvinilo Rusko z\u00a0<\/span>incidentu v Lipsku z minul\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kdy byl na p\u0159ist\u00e1vac\u00ed plo\u0161e v bl\u00edzkosti ukrajinsk\u00fdch n\u00e1kladn\u00edch letadel nalezen jeden dron nalo\u017een\u00fd v\u00fdbu\u0161ninami, dal\u0161\u00ed se \u00fadajn\u011b srazil s jin\u00fdm n\u00e1kladn\u00edm letadlem, kdy\u017e se pokou\u0161elo p\u0159ist\u00e1t, ale nevybuchl, a t\u0159et\u00ed byl pozd\u011bji nalezen pobl\u00ed\u017e are\u00e1lu. Putin jejich tvrzen\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>odsoudil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, sd\u00edlel sv\u016fj n\u00e1zor, \u017ee se jednalo o podvod pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou, proto\u017ee podstr\u010dili d\u016fkazy, a spekuloval, \u017ee motivem bylo odv\u00e9st pozornost od dom\u00e1c\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>strachu z Ruska<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco skeptici by mohli kroutit panenkami, incident v Lipsku m\u00e1 v\u0161echny znaky \u00fatoku pod fale\u0161nou vlajkou. N\u011bmecko tak v prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b nazna\u010duje komiksovou neschopnost Ruska. Ve\u0159ejnost m\u00e1 v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee nejzku\u0161en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed oper\u00e1to\u0159i dron\u016f na sv\u011bt\u011b, kte\u0159\u00ed byli pov\u011b\u0159eni \u00fakolem, kter\u00fd by byl nejsenza\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u00fatokem\u00a0<\/span>hybridn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v\u00e1lky<\/a>\u00a0na NATO v historii, nechali dron na leti\u0161tn\u00ed plo\u0161e, m\u011bli sm\u016flu, kdy\u017e dal\u0161\u00ed po n\u00e1razu do p\u0159ist\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho n\u00e1kladn\u00edho letadla nevybuchl, a dal\u0161\u00ed nechali pobl\u00ed\u017e. Tomu se t\u011b\u017eko v\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm bodem, kter\u00fd je t\u0159eba uv\u00e9st na podporu Putinovy \u200b\u200bhypot\u00e9zy, je, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>se n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho stalo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0loni na podzim, kdy nezn\u00e1m\u00e9 drony donutily velk\u00e1 leti\u0161t\u011b ve Skandin\u00e1vii do\u010dasn\u011b pozastavit v\u0161echny lety. Zelenskyj p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b obvinil Rusko a vyzval k uzav\u0159en\u00ed d\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu pro jeho lodn\u00ed dopravu. Stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b incidentu v Lipsku nebyly nikdy p\u0159edlo\u017eeny \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy na podporu tohoto tvrzen\u00ed, ale poslou\u017eilo to jako precedens pro obvin\u011bn\u00ed Ruska ze z\u00e1hadn\u00fdch incident\u016f souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s drony v Evrop\u011b, aby se ospravedlnila dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace proti n\u011bmu.<\/span><\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, a\u010dkoliv Zelensk\u00e9ho navrhovan\u00e1 eskalace nakonec nikdy nedo\u0161la k uskute\u010dn\u011bn\u00ed (s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed proto, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo ostr\u00e9 v\u00e1lce mezi NATO a Ruskem), po incidentu v Lipsku by mohla n\u00e1sledovat n\u011bjak\u00e1 eskalace. Koncem srpna se\u00a0<\/span>zde<\/span><\/a>\u00a0argumentovalo , \u017ee NATO by o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee z v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 eskalace s Ruskem z\u00edsk\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e naopak, co\u017e by mohlo m\u00edt podobu obnoven\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 letn\u00ed kampan\u011b dron\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0proti Rusku na neur\u010dito ve velk\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku ve snaze o jeho deindustrializaci a demilitarizaci. O to by se mohlo pokusit p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pozorovatel\u00e9 by si m\u011bli uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee N\u011bmecko, kter\u00e9 je nyn\u00ed druh\u00fdm nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm vojensk\u00fdm patronem Ukrajiny po USA, dos\u00e1hlo na ja\u0159e dohody o\u00a0<\/span>rozvoji ukrajinsk\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed hlubok\u00e9ho \u00faderu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Jeho ekonomika se tak\u00e9 dost\u00e1v\u00e1 do v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 pozice, proto\u017ee N\u011bmecko se\u00a0<\/span>rychle\u00a0<\/span><\/a>rebilitarizuje<\/a>\u00a0v r\u00e1mci sv\u00e9ho\u00a0c\u00edle velet nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b<\/a>\u00a0p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e EU p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1\u00a0mo\u017enou v\u00e1lku s Ruskem kolem roku 2030.<\/a>\u00a0To se v\u0161ak u voli\u010d\u016f uk\u00e1zalo\u00a0jako nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0, a proto je nutn\u00e9 to zd\u016fvodnit incidentem v Lipsku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom shrnuli vysv\u011btlen\u00ed Putinovy \u200b\u200bhypot\u00e9zy o fale\u0161n\u00e9 vlajk\u011b, panick\u00fd incident s rusk\u00fdmi drony ve Skandin\u00e1vii z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho podzimu poslou\u017eil jako z\u00e1minka k obvi\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed Kremlu z budouc\u00edch podobn\u00fdch incident\u016f bez d\u016fkaz\u016f, co\u017e N\u011bmecko nyn\u00ed ud\u011blalo s incidentem v Lipsku. Narativ o neschopnosti rusk\u00fdch provozovatel\u016f dron\u016f je v\u0161ak t\u011b\u017eko uv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fd, ale st\u00e1le je prosazov\u00e1n k ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fdvoje n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1klady, k odveden\u00ed pozornosti od v\u00fdsledn\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f a k legitimizaci budouc\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 eskalace proti Rusku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak ji\u017e bylo naps\u00e1no, mohlo by to m\u00edt podobu obnoven\u00ed ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 letn\u00ed kampan\u011b dron\u016f proti Rusku ve velk\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku na dobu neur\u010ditou ve snaze o jeho deindustrializaci a demilitarizaci, ale to by\u00a0<\/span>podle aktualizovan\u00e9 doktr\u00edny<\/span><\/a>\u00a0mohlo v\u00e9st k p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho prahu . Putin by p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm op\u011bt\u00a0<\/span>m\u00edrn\u011b \u201eeskaloval, aby deeskaloval\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u00a0proti Ukrajin\u011b, ale v\u017edy existuje \u0161ance, \u017ee se v\u0161e vymkne kontrole. Pro N\u011bmecko by proto bylo nejlep\u0161\u00ed se eskalaci vyhnout, stejn\u011b jako to nakonec ud\u011blaly skandin\u00e1vsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bylo to provedeno s c\u00edlem ospravedlnit p\u0159echod n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, odv\u00e9st pozornost od…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":114814,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2856,686,1349,84],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114813"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114813"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114813\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/114814"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}