{"id":11478,"date":"2022-06-12T01:07:58","date_gmt":"2022-06-11T23:07:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=11478"},"modified":"2022-06-11T17:46:21","modified_gmt":"2022-06-11T15:46:21","slug":"je-ukrajina-pasti-pro-nato","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/06\/12\/je-ukrajina-pasti-pro-nato\/","title":{"rendered":"Je Ukrajina past\u00ed pro NATO?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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NATO \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee Ukrajina je pro Rusko nov\u00fdm \u201eAfgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem\u201c.\u00a0Bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed pohled na situaci v\u0161ak ukazuje, \u017ee NATO je zata\u017eeno do konfliktu, kter\u00fd nem\u016f\u017ee vyhr\u00e1t a kter\u00fd by mohl alianci rozlo\u017eit.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto t\u00fddne ukrajinsk\u00fd politik a komik Vladimir Zelenskyj nav\u0161t\u00edvil frontov\u00e9 linie v separatistick\u00e9 oblasti Donbasu, kterou ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly okupuj\u00ed a pokou\u0161ej\u00ed se podrobit od roku 2014. Zelenskyj, podn\u011bcov\u00e1n sv\u00fdmi z\u00e1stupci NATO, vyzval k \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm kompromis\u016fm s rusk\u00fdmi ozbrojen\u00fdmi silami a rebely v Donbasu.\u00a0Chce tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a zatla\u010dit Rusy zp\u011bt ke star\u00e9 hranici jako v roce 2014.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory drtiv\u00e9 p\u0159evaze rusk\u00e9ho letectva a d\u011blost\u0159electva se Zelensk\u00e9mu n\u011bjak poda\u0159ilo nav\u0161t\u00edvit frontu.\u00a0Nepop\u00edr\u00e1m, \u017ee tam byl.\u00a0Jen se div\u00edm, pro\u010d Rusov\u00e9 ne\u0161li po Zelensk\u00e9m, aby ho alespo\u0148 postra\u0161ili.\u00a0Skoro jako by ho Moskva cht\u011bla \u017eiv\u00e9ho a v dobr\u00e9 kondici.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd den \u010dtu a studuji zpr\u00e1vy, videa a mapy z obou stran konfliktu.\u00a0Za posledn\u00edch 100 dn\u00ed Rusko posunulo frontovou linii na Donbasu jen o n\u011bkolik kilometr\u016f.\u00a0Naproti tomu Rusku trvalo jen n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f, ne\u017e dobylo velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Chersonsk\u00e9 a Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 oblasti na (b\u00fdval\u00e9) ji\u017en\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Pro\u010d je tedy pokrok na Donbasu tak pomal\u00fd?<\/span><\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9, d\u00edky poradc\u016fm NATO ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly (UAF) za posledn\u00edch osm let zakopaly a vybudovaly na Donbasu masivn\u00ed opevn\u011bn\u00ed a nasadily do povstaleck\u00e9ho regionu sv\u00e9 nejlep\u0161\u00ed jednotky.\u00a0Dob\u0159e a dob\u0159e. Pro\u010d ale Rusov\u00e9 nemohou UAF obkl\u00ed\u010dit\u00a0 (viz mapa n\u00ed\u017ee)?<\/span><\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem je, \u017ee UAF pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 civilisty Donbasu jako \u201elidsk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00edty\u201c.\u00a0UAF \u010dasto zauj\u00edm\u00e1 palebn\u00e1 postaven\u00ed ve \u0161kol\u00e1ch, nemocnic\u00edch, n\u00e1kupn\u00edch st\u0159edisc\u00edch, obiln\u00fdch s\u00fdpk\u00e1ch a obytn\u00fdch domech a pokou\u0161\u00ed se na tyto pozice \u0159\u00eddit ruskou palbu, kdy\u017e mluv\u00edme o \u201ev\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch zlo\u010dinech\u201c. Vid\u011bli jsme to v Mariupolu, proto m\u011bsto tolik trp\u011blo.\u00a0(Mimochodem, pou\u017e\u00edvat civilisty jako „lidsk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00edty“ je v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd zlo\u010din).<\/span><\/p>\n

I p\u0159es tyto dva faktory se pod\u00edvejme na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed mapu.\u00a0\u010cervenou ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 Rusko a sv\u011btle modrou Ukrajina.\u00a0Sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 a modr\u00e9 pruhy jsou kontroverzn\u00ed.\u00a0Nem\u011blo by b\u00fdt mo\u017en\u00e9, aby Rusko prorazilo a obkl\u00ed\u010dilo UAF zezadu?<\/span><\/p>\n

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Pro\u010d to Rusko neud\u011blalo?\u00a0M\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt d\u016fvodem n\u011bco velmi ne\u010dekan\u00e9ho a \u0161okuj\u00edc\u00edho?\u00a0Mo\u017en\u00e1 se m\u00fdl\u00edm a je to jen moje teorie, ale m\u00e1m dojem, \u017ee Rusko chce zat\u00e1hnout NATO do pomal\u00e9 a vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Chci \u0159\u00edct, nevypad\u00e1 frontov\u00e1 linie na Donbasu jako dokonal\u00e1 past?<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00e1le se pod\u00edvejte na mapu n\u00ed\u017ee.\u00a0Vid\u00ed\u0161 Sloviansk?\u00a0Toto je jedna z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch pevnost\u00ed UAF na Donbasu.\u00a0Pokud Rusov\u00e9 toto m\u011bsto zaberou, cel\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 frontov\u00e1 linie by se zhroutila.\u00a0Nav\u00edc rusk\u00e9 jednotky jsou ji\u017e na jih od Izjumu \u2013 16 mil (asi 26 km) od Sloviansku.\u00a0Jsou tam dva m\u011bs\u00edce.\u00a0Pro\u010d nestla\u010d\u00ed d\u00e1lnici M03 a nevezmou Sloviansk?<\/span><\/p>\n

V Mariupolu rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da postoupila a dobyla m\u011bsto b\u011bhem m\u011bs\u00edce, a\u010dkoli UAF pou\u017eilo tamn\u00ed etnick\u00e9 Rusy jako \u201elidsk\u00e9 \u0161t\u00edty\u201c.\u00a0(Ano, bylo tragicky mnoho civiln\u00edch ob\u011bt\u00ed. Ale neonacistick\u00fd prapor Azov musel b\u00fdt p\u0159emo\u017een).\u00a0A te\u010f znovu moje ot\u00e1zka: pro\u010d Rusov\u00e9 nesp\u011bchaj\u00ed s dobyt\u00edm Sloviansku?<\/span><\/p>\n

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D\u00edky z\u00e1padn\u00edm sankc\u00edm vzrostly ceny energi\u00ed po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b a Rusko dosahuje rekordn\u00edch zisk\u016f.\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed sankce ve skute\u010dnosti nepo\u0161kozuj\u00ed Rusko, jak bylo pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no, co\u017e jen d\u00e1le frustruje a roz\u010diluje v\u016fdce NATO.\u00a0Celkov\u011b jsou makroekonomick\u00e9 ukazatele Ruska solidn\u00ed, lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u siln\u011b zadlu\u017een\u00e9ho a vysokou inflac\u00ed su\u017eovan\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padu.\u00a0Rusko by v t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce mohlo bojovat n\u011bkolik let, Z\u00e1pad ne.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pochybuji, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad m\u016f\u017ee pokra\u010dovat v t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce i po p\u00e1du, ani\u017e by utrp\u011bl nadm\u011brn\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kody, kter\u00e9 by mohly v\u00e9st k politick\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017ece vl\u00e1dnouc\u00edch stran.\u00a0Pamatujte si, \u017ee s d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi listopadov\u00fdmi volbami v USA by se Biden r\u00e1d pochlubil, \u017ee \u201ezastavil Vladimira Putina\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pod\u00edvejme se na tuto v\u00e1lku tak\u00e9 z pohledu Ruska.\u00a0Kreml v\u00ed, \u017ee je to boj o p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.\u00a0Biden a NATO jasn\u011b \u0159ekli, \u017ee cht\u011bj\u00ed zni\u010dit Rusko.\u00a0Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden vlivn\u00e1 pro-Bidenova m\u00e9dia jako Bloomberg vyz\u00fdvala ke zni\u010den\u00ed Ruska a jeho rozd\u011blen\u00ed na tucet republik.<\/span><\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e tento pl\u00e1n nen\u00ed nov\u00fd, pouze se o n\u011bm \u0161eptalo v s\u00edn\u00edch moci, nikoli v mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch.\u00a0(Osobn\u011b jsem o tom sly\u0161el v roce 2016 od lid\u00ed z Atlantic Council, vlivn\u00e9ho washingtonsk\u00e9ho think tanku vedouc\u00edho boj proti Rusku).<\/span><\/p>\n

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No, Rusko nebude zni\u010deno.\u00a0Zelensk\u00e9ho zoufal\u00e9 tir\u00e1dy \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed mocn\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed PR firmy a bez jak\u00e9koli kritick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy ze strany m\u00e9di\u00ed.\u00a0Zelenskyj a jeho nohsledi vytvo\u0159ili sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed bizarn\u00ed paraleln\u00ed vesm\u00edr, ve kter\u00fd bohu\u017eel mnoz\u00ed na Z\u00e1pad\u011b v\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Ve skute\u010dnosti v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee Rusko \u00fato\u010dit a ni\u010dit zbran\u011b NATO dlouho p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e se dostanou na boji\u0161t\u011b.\u00a0Tyto dod\u00e1vky mus\u00ed ujet 1 450 km od ukrajinsk\u00fdch hranic s Polskem na Donbas.\u00a0Jste zraniteln\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva chce Bidenovi a NATO na Ukrajin\u011b u\u0161t\u011bd\u0159it potupnou por\u00e1\u017eku.\u00a0A zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Moskva dokonce pob\u00edz\u00ed NATO a jeho ukrajinsk\u00e9 z\u00e1stupce: \u201ePokra\u010dujte, pos\u00edlejte d\u00e1l mu\u017ee a zbran\u011b do donbask\u00e9ho \u201akotle\u2018; zvl\u00e1dneme v\u0161e, co po\u0161lete;\u00a0zapoj\u00edme v\u00e1s do v\u00e1lky na na\u0161\u00ed hranici, kterou nem\u016f\u017eete vyhr\u00e1t.“<\/span><\/p>\n

NATO pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed zbran\u00ed a pen\u011bz k por\u00e1\u017ece Ruska.\u00a0Zde plat\u00ed tot\u00e9\u017e: Pokud NATO nedos\u00e1hne sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b, dojde na Ukrajin\u011b k politick\u00fdm a soci\u00e1ln\u00edm nepokoj\u016fm.\u00a0Ob\u010dan\u00e9 EU a USA plat\u00ed vysokou ekonomickou cenu za v\u00e1lku NATO proti Rusku: nekontrolovatelnou inflaci a klesaj\u00edc\u00ed \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148.<\/span><\/p>\n

Biden a NATO d\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 \u201e\u010dipy\u201c na \u201epor\u00e1\u017eku\u201c Ruska.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm je realita takov\u00e1, \u017ee UAF je st\u011b\u017e\u00ed schopno zah\u00e1jit \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou protiofenz\u00edvu, nato\u017e dr\u017eet svou linii proti pomal\u00e9mu, ale st\u00e1l\u00e9mu rusk\u00e9mu postupu.\u00a0Na cest\u011b Rusov\u00e9 uko\u0159istili spoustu zbran\u00ed NATO.\u00a0Ru\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci \u010dasto zve\u0159ej\u0148uj\u00ed vtipn\u00e1 videa s americk\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi a posm\u00edvaj\u00ed se Bidenovi t\u00edm, \u017ee mu \u201ed\u011bkuj\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by se Zelensk\u00e9ho re\u017eim skute\u010dn\u011b zaj\u00edmal o Ukrajinu, vyjednal by m\u00edr.\u00a0Pokud by Evropa a USA skute\u010dn\u011b cht\u011bly m\u00edr ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, pak by p\u0159inutily Zelensk\u00e9ho uznat pr\u00e1vo Donbasu a Krymu rozhodovat o sv\u00e9m vlastn\u00edm osudu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mimochodem, touha Krymu a Donbasu po nez\u00e1vislosti na Ukrajin\u011b je ozna\u010dov\u00e1na jako \u201epr\u00e1vo na sebeur\u010den\u00ed\u201c.\u00a0Tento koncept roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il v roce 1918 americk\u00fd prezident Woodrow Wilson (demokrat) s ohledem na nov\u00e9 zem\u011b st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od roku 1918 je \u201epr\u00e1vo na sebeur\u010den\u00ed\u201c z\u00e1kladn\u00edm principem mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho pr\u00e1va akceptovan\u00fdm sv\u011btov\u00fdm spole\u010denstv\u00edm.\u00a0Nen\u00ed to k diskuzi.\u00a0Jedinou ot\u00e1zkou, kterou je t\u0159eba zodpov\u011bd\u011bt, je: pro\u010d si Z\u00e1pad mysl\u00ed, \u017ee Donbas a Krym toto pr\u00e1vo nemaj\u00ed? Ale to je t\u00e9ma na jin\u00fd den.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jsme sv\u011bdky velk\u00e9 trag\u00e9die.\u00a0Dva p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b slovansk\u00e9 n\u00e1rody se spole\u010dnou histori\u00ed a kulturou spolu bojuj\u00ed v krut\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.\u00a0Geografii ale nakonec zm\u011bnit nelze \u2013 Rusko a Ukrajina jsou soused\u00e9 a mus\u00ed se nau\u010dit \u017e\u00edt spolu.\u00a0V ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku budou muset uzav\u0159\u00edt m\u00edr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moskva p\u0159itom nikdy nebude tolerovat nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 NATO na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Za posledn\u00edch 800 let se o to pokusili \u0158\u00e1d n\u011bmeck\u00fdch ryt\u00ed\u0159\u016f, Pol\u00e1ci, \u0160v\u00e9dov\u00e9, Napoleon a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nacist\u00e9.\u00a0V\u0161ichni se pokusili napadnout a porazit Rusko.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek byl v\u017edy stejn\u00fd \u2013 absolutn\u00ed a naprost\u00e9 selh\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Ale Biden a NATO v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee se tomuto trendu mohou postavit.\u00a0Brzy to uvid\u00edte…<\/span><\/p>\n

KONEC<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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NATO \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee Ukrajina je pro Rusko nov\u00fdm \u201eAfgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nem\u201c.\u00a0Bli\u017e\u0161\u00ed pohled na situaci v\u0161ak ukazuje, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11479,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[220,39,22,26,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11478"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11478"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11478\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}