{"id":114634,"date":"2026-09-01T00:25:04","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T22:25:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=114634"},"modified":"2026-08-31T10:45:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T08:45:07","slug":"predsudek-nebo-statistika-co-evropska-data-rikaji-o-migraci-kriminalite-a-riziku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/09\/01\/predsudek-nebo-statistika-co-evropska-data-rikaji-o-migraci-kriminalite-a-riziku\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159edsudek, nebo statistika? Co evropsk\u00e1 data \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed o migraci, kriminalit\u011b a riziku"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

1. \u00davod: Evolu\u010dn\u00ed pam\u011b\u0165 a meziskupinov\u00e1 obez\u0159etnost jako adapta\u010dn\u00ed mechanismus<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Lidsk\u00e1 psychika je v\u00fdsledkem statis\u00edc\u016f let selekce. Obez\u0159etnost v\u016f\u010di ciz\u00edm \u010di nezn\u00e1m\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m \u2013 tedy tendence vn\u00edmat nezn\u00e1m\u00e9 osoby jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed zdroj rizika \u2013 nen\u00ed jevem, kter\u00fd se objevil a\u017e s globalizac\u00ed. Je to hluboce zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00fd evolu\u010dn\u00ed mechanismus, jeho\u017e hlavn\u00edm \u00fakolem bylo minimalizovat rizika spojen\u00e1 s kontaktem s neprov\u011b\u0159en\u00fdmi skupinami. Schopnost rychle rozeznat \u201emy\u201c versus \u201eoni\u201c a reagovat na tento rozd\u00edl ned\u016fv\u011brou \u010di odstupem umo\u017e\u0148ovala skupin\u00e1m p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt.<\/p>\n

Dne\u0161n\u00ed spole\u010dnost se v\u0161ak od z\u00e1kladu zm\u011bnila. Zat\u00edmco na\u0161e biologie st\u00e1le nese pam\u011b\u0165 t\u011bchto adapta\u010dn\u00edch mechanism\u016f, na\u0161e instituce \u2013 od \u0161kolstv\u00ed po soudnictv\u00ed a m\u00e9dia \u2013 se vydaly cestou systematick\u00e9ho potla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to p\u0159irozen\u00e9 tendence. Pokud za\u010dneme ka\u017edou zv\u00fd\u0161enou obez\u0159etnost v\u016f\u010di ciz\u00edm skupin\u00e1m automaticky ozna\u010dovat za xenofobii, riskujeme, \u017ee spolu s iracion\u00e1ln\u00edmi p\u0159edsudky potla\u010d\u00edme i legitimn\u00ed mechanismy hodnocen\u00ed rizika. Vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00edme spole\u010densk\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed, v n\u011bm\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt i legitimn\u00ed obez\u0159etnost v\u016f\u010di ur\u010dit\u00fdm rizik\u016fm automaticky pova\u017eov\u00e1na za nep\u0159ijateln\u00fd p\u0159edsudek a kde jsou p\u016fvodn\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 vystaveni zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9mu riziku pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee jejich instinktivn\u00ed varov\u00e1n\u00ed jsou institucion\u00e1ln\u011b devalvov\u00e1na.<\/p>\n

2. Institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed korekce vs. realita rizika<\/b><\/h3>\n

Modern\u00ed establishment, a\u0165 u\u017e v Evrop\u011b nebo USA, prosazuje narativ, \u017ee rasismus je prim\u00e1rn\u00edm vin\u00edkem nerovnost\u00ed a konflikt\u016f. Proto jsou investov\u00e1ny obrovsk\u00e9 prost\u0159edky do toho, aby byl z lidsk\u00e9ho chov\u00e1n\u00ed vym\u00fdcen. Probl\u00e9m m\u016f\u017ee nastat tehdy, pokud snaha o potla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edsudk\u016f vede sou\u010dasn\u011b k odm\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed legitimn\u00ed diskuse o skute\u010dn\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch rizic\u00edch. Pokud spole\u010dnost potla\u010duje p\u0159irozen\u00e9 mechanismy obez\u0159etnosti a sou\u010dasn\u011b odm\u00edt\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u011b diskutovat o statisticky dolo\u017een\u00fdch rozd\u00edlech v m\u00ed\u0159e n\u00e1siln\u00e9 kriminality mezi n\u011bkter\u00fdmi popula\u010dn\u00edmi skupinami, vznik\u00e1 legitimn\u00ed ot\u00e1zka, zda takov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup nem\u00e1 tak\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed n\u00e1klady.<\/p>\n

Instituce n\u00e1s u\u010d\u00ed, abychom byli \u201etolerantn\u00ed\u201c, \u201emultikulturn\u00ed\u201c a abychom nekorelovali vzhled s charakterem. Realita je v\u0161ak pragmati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Pokud se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na faktick\u00e1 data, zjist\u00edme, \u017ee etnick\u00fd \u010di n\u00e1rodnostn\u00ed p\u016fvod m\u016f\u017ee u n\u011bkter\u00fdch forem kriminality n\u00e9st statistickou informaci o skupinov\u00e9m riziku. A pokud tato korelace existuje, vznik\u00e1 provokativn\u00ed ot\u00e1zka, zda ka\u017ed\u00e1 rychl\u00e1 heuristick\u00e1 asociace typu \u201etato skupina = vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed opatrnost\u201c mus\u00ed b\u00fdt automaticky iracion\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159edsudkem, nebo zda m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt za ur\u010dit\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed racion\u00e1ln\u00ed.<\/p>\n

3. Metodick\u00e9 vymezen\u00ed: Deskripce p\u0159ed kauzalitou<\/b><\/h3>\n

N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed anal\u00fdza m\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm\u00a0deskriptivn\u00ed<\/b>, nikoliv kauz\u00e1ln\u00ed charakter.<\/p>\n

Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed kriminalita ur\u010dit\u00e9 skupiny m\u016f\u017ee souviset s v\u011bkovou a pohlavn\u00ed strukturou, ekonomickou situac\u00ed, vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00edm, p\u0159edchoz\u00ed zku\u0161enost\u00ed s n\u00e1sil\u00edm, v\u00e1lkou, traumatem, rodinnou strukturou, m\u00edrou soci\u00e1ln\u00ed integrace, kriminalitou konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch subkultur, selekc\u00ed migruj\u00edc\u00ed populace nebo celou \u0159adou dal\u0161\u00edch prom\u011bnn\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee odstran\u011bn\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch t\u011bchto faktor\u016f by rozd\u00edly v kriminalit\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eilo. Je rovn\u011b\u017e mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee by rozd\u00edl p\u0159etrv\u00e1val.\u00a0Rozhodnout tuto kauz\u00e1ln\u00ed ot\u00e1zku nen\u00ed hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem t\u00e9to pr\u00e1ce.<\/b><\/p>\n

Pro ot\u00e1zku bezpe\u010dnosti v sou\u010dasnosti je legitimn\u00ed zkoumat, jak\u00e1 populace ve spole\u010dnosti\u00a0fakticky \u017eije nyn\u00ed<\/b>, nikoliv hypotetickou populaci po dokonale \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 integraci. Pokud se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na imigranty, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou ji\u017e ve druh\u00e9 nebo t\u0159et\u00ed generaci, je legitimn\u00ed zkoumat, zda se rozd\u00edly skute\u010dn\u011b vytr\u00e1cej\u00ed, nebo zda u n\u011bkter\u00fdch skupin p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b data z D\u00e1nska a \u0160v\u00e9dska ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee odpov\u011b\u010f nen\u00ed jednoduch\u00e1 a \u017ee u n\u011bkter\u00fdch skupin v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st rozd\u00edlu p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 i u dal\u0161\u00ed generace nebo po n\u011bkter\u00fdch statistick\u00fdch korekc\u00edch. [19, 33\u201334]<\/p>\n

M\u016fj argument je n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:\u00a0Pro \u00fa\u010dely ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnosti a tvorby preventivn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed je podstatn\u00e1 sou\u010dasn\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 statisticky pozorovan\u00e9ho rizika, nikoliv pouze hypot\u00e9za, jak by mohla vypadat po odstran\u011bn\u00ed v\u0161ech socioekonomick\u00fdch rozd\u00edl\u016f.<\/b><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u011b je nutn\u00e9 p\u0159iznat, \u017ee v\u011bk, pohlav\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edjem, vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed nebo soci\u00e1ln\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed mohou \u010d\u00e1st rozd\u00edl\u016f vysv\u011btlovat. Pr\u00e1v\u011b proto maj\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed hodnotu finsk\u00e1, \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00e1 a d\u00e1nsk\u00e1 data, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed alespo\u0148 \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bchto faktor\u016f kontrolovat. Pokud rozd\u00edl po takov\u00e9 korekci klesne, je t\u0159eba to otev\u0159en\u011b uv\u00e9st; pokud p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1, je stejn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 uv\u00e9st i to.<\/p>\n

4. Data \u2013 N\u011bmecko<\/b><\/h3>\n

Nejcenn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zdroj pro tuto diskusi p\u0159edstavuje odpov\u011b\u010f n\u011bmeck\u00e9 spolkov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy Bundestagu z kv\u011btna 2026, kter\u00e1 zve\u0159ejnila\u00a0Tatverd\u00e4chtigenbelastungszahl \u2013 TVBZ<\/b>\u00a0za rok 2025.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

TVBZ ud\u00e1v\u00e1 po\u010det zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch\u00a0rezidentn\u00edch policejn\u011b evidovan\u00fdch podez\u0159el\u00fdch na 100 000 obyvatel odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed skupiny<\/b>, bez d\u011bt\u00ed mlad\u0161\u00edch osmi let. Jde tedy o v\u00fdrazn\u011b u\u017eite\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fadaj ne\u017e prost\u00e9 absolutn\u00ed po\u010dty pachatel\u016f. [10\u201311]<\/p>\n

Tato \u010d\u00edsla jsou natolik vysok\u00e1, \u017ee nelze tvrdit, \u017ee v\u0161echny popula\u010dn\u00ed skupiny vykazuj\u00ed v n\u011bmeck\u00e9 policejn\u00ed statistice stejn\u00fd profil.<\/p>\n

Zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 v\u00fdrazn\u00fd je \u00fadaj vztahuj\u00edc\u00ed se ke zn\u00e1siln\u011bn\u00ed, sexu\u00e1ln\u00edmu n\u00e1tlaku a zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9mu sexu\u00e1ln\u00edmu napaden\u00ed podle p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e9ho souhrnn\u00e9ho kl\u00ed\u010de PKS. Hodnota byla 11 na 100 000 n\u011bmeck\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f, 92 (8,4x v\u00edce) u syrsk\u00fdch, 138 (12,5 x v\u00edce) u afgh\u00e1nsk\u00fdch a 120 (10,9x v\u00edce) u ir\u00e1ck\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f. [11]<\/p>\n

Pohlav\u00ed m\u011bn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st v\u00fdsledku<\/b><\/h3>\n

Tent\u00fd\u017e n\u011bmeck\u00fd dokument umo\u017e\u0148uje srovnat pouze mu\u017ee. U mu\u017e\u016f \u010dinila TVBZ v dan\u00e9 kategorii sexu\u00e1ln\u00edch trestn\u00fdch \u010din\u016f 22 u N\u011bmc\u016f, 149 u Sy\u0159an\u016f, 209 u Afgh\u00e1nc\u016f a 207 u Ir\u00e1\u010dan\u016f. [11]<\/p>\n

Pom\u011br se tedy po omezen\u00ed na mu\u017ee m\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b na\u00a06,8\u00d7 pro Sy\u0159any, 9,5\u00d7 pro Afgh\u00e1nce a 9,4\u00d7 pro Ir\u00e1\u010dany.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Celkov\u00e1 n\u011bmeck\u00e1 PKS 2025 sou\u010dasn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee ne-n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 tvo\u0159ili 42,9 % podez\u0159el\u00fdch z n\u00e1siln\u00e9 kriminality a 38,5 % podez\u0159el\u00fdch v uveden\u00e9 kategorii zn\u00e1siln\u011bn\u00ed a zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fdch sexu\u00e1ln\u00edch delikt\u016f. U t\u00e9to kategorie bylo 98,6 % podez\u0159el\u00fdch mu\u017esk\u00e9ho pohlav\u00ed. [12]<\/p>\n

5. Data \u2013 \u0160v\u00e9dsko<\/b><\/h3>\n

\u0160v\u00e9dsk\u00e1 Br\u00e5 provedla jednu z nejpodrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch studi\u00ed tohoto t\u00e9matu. V\u00fdzkum sledoval osoby star\u0161\u00ed 15 let a rozli\u0161oval osoby narozen\u00e9 ve \u0160v\u00e9dsku dv\u011bma \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00fdm rodi\u010d\u016fm, osoby s jedn\u00edm \u010di dv\u011bma zahrani\u010dn\u00edmi rodi\u010di a osoby narozen\u00e9 v zahrani\u010d\u00ed. [18\u201319]<\/p>\n

V obdob\u00ed 2015\u20132018 bylo v souvislosti s alespo\u0148 jedn\u00edm trestn\u00fdm \u010dinem registrov\u00e1no p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 3,2 % osob narozen\u00fdch ve \u0160v\u00e9dsku dv\u011bma \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00fdm rodi\u010d\u016fm, 8,0 % osob narozen\u00fdch v zahrani\u010d\u00ed a 10,2 % osob narozen\u00fdch ve \u0160v\u00e9dsku dv\u011bma zahrani\u010dn\u00edm rodi\u010d\u016fm. U posledn\u00ed skupiny \u0161lo mezi mu\u017ei p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 15,3 %. [19]<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Co druh\u00e1 generace?<\/b><\/h3>\n

Data rovn\u011b\u017e komplikuj\u00ed jednoduch\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee v\u0161echny rozd\u00edly automaticky zmiz\u00ed po jedn\u00e9 generaci.<\/p>\n

U \u0161v\u00e9dsk\u00fdch rod\u00e1k\u016f se dv\u011bma rodi\u010di narozen\u00fdmi v zahrani\u010d\u00ed byly n\u011bkter\u00e9 hrub\u00e9 hodnoty dokonce vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e mezi prvn\u00ed generac\u00ed p\u0159ist\u011bhovalc\u016f. Zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st tohoto rozd\u00edlu byla vysv\u011btlena v\u011bkovou strukturou skupiny, nikoliv v\u0161ak ve v\u0161ech kategori\u00edch cel\u00fd rozd\u00edl. [19]<\/p>\n

Nov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed studie Br\u00e5 o vra\u017ed\u00e1ch nav\u00edc uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee lid\u00e9 se zahrani\u010dn\u00edm p\u016fvodem p\u0159edstavovali p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 43 % pachatel\u016f vra\u017ed p\u0159i zhruba 21% zastoupen\u00ed v populaci. U vra\u017ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edch s krimin\u00e1ln\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00edm \u0161lo o 64 % pachatel\u016f.[20]<\/p>\n

Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed rod\u00e1ci evidovan\u00ed jako pachatel\u00e9 vra\u017ed p\u0159itom p\u0159ed skutkem \u017eili ve \u0160v\u00e9dsku v pr\u016fm\u011bru p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 15 let. [20]<\/p>\n

5. Data \u2013 Finsko:<\/b><\/h3>\n

Finsko poskytuje pro tuto diskusi metodicky mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b cenn\u00e1 data. Statistics Finland zve\u0159ejnilo anal\u00fdzu policejn\u011b evidovan\u00fdch podez\u0159el\u00fdch za roky 2017 a 2018, v n\u00ed\u017e byly hodnoty pro jednotliv\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nosti\u00a0standardizov\u00e1ny podle v\u011bku a pohlav\u00ed<\/b>\u00a0a p\u0159epo\u010dteny na 1 000 obyvatel dan\u00e9 skupiny.\u00a0!<\/b>\u00a0Zahrnuty byly pouze osoby s trval\u00fdm pobytem ve Finsku\u00a0!<\/b>. [31]<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Finsk\u00e1 data jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b proto, \u017ee odstra\u0148uj\u00ed jednu z nejz\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00edch n\u00e1mitek proti prost\u00e9mu popula\u010dn\u00edmu srovn\u00e1n\u00ed: odli\u0161nou v\u011bkovou a pohlavn\u00ed strukturu skupin. Statistics Finland samo ve sv\u00e9m koment\u00e1\u0159i uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee u sexu\u00e1ln\u00edch trestn\u00fdch \u010din\u016f byli ir\u00e1\u010dt\u00ed mu\u017ei evidov\u00e1ni jako podez\u0159el\u00ed\u00a012,8kr\u00e1t \u010dast\u011bji ne\u017e fin\u0161t\u00ed mu\u017ei<\/b>. [31]<\/p>\n

U podkategorie zn\u00e1siln\u011bn\u00ed vych\u00e1z\u00ed z publikovan\u00fdch standardizovan\u00fdch hodnot 1,31 proti 0,08, tedy p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a016,4n\u00e1sobek<\/b>. U som\u00e1lsk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f je odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed pom\u011br p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a05,6n\u00e1sobn\u00fd<\/b>. Tyto n\u00e1sobky jsou prost\u00fdm p\u0159epo\u010dtem hodnot publikovan\u00fdch Statistics Finland.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 je nutn\u00e9 zachovat p\u0159esnou terminologii. Nejde o odsouzen\u00e9 osoby, ale o\u00a0podez\u0159el\u00e9 v objasn\u011bn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech, kter\u00e9 policie postoupila k posouzen\u00ed ob\u017ealoby<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Finsko tedy poskytuje v\u00fdznamn\u00fd dopln\u011bk n\u011bmeck\u00fdch dat: vysok\u00e1 nadreprezentace u n\u011bkter\u00fdch kategori\u00ed sexu\u00e1ln\u00ed kriminality zde p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1 i po standardizaci v\u011bku a pohlav\u00ed.<\/p>\n

6. Data \u2013 D\u00e1nsko:<\/b><\/h3>\n

D\u00e1nsko nab\u00edz\u00ed jin\u00fd, ale stejn\u011b cenn\u00fd typ evidence. Publikace Danmarks Statistik\u00a0Indvandrere i Danmark 2025<\/i>\u00a0pracuje v kapitole o kriminalit\u011b s daty za rok 2024 a vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed\u00a0kriminalitn\u00ed indexy zalo\u017een\u00e9 na odsuzuj\u00edc\u00edch rozhodnut\u00edch<\/b>, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e rozli\u0161uje imigranty, jejich potomky a konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed zem\u011b p\u016fvodu. Index je standardizov\u00e1n podle v\u011bku; pr\u016fm\u011br v\u0161ech mu\u017e\u016f ve v\u011bku 15\u201379 let je nastaven na 100. [33\u201334]<\/p>\n

Pro n\u00e1silnou kriminalitu maj\u00ed mu\u017ei d\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho p\u016fvodu v\u011bkov\u011b standardizovan\u00fd index\u00a090<\/b>. Na tomto z\u00e1klad\u011b lze \u00fadaje pro vybran\u00e9 zem\u011b p\u016fvodu srovnat n\u00e1sledovn\u011b: [34]<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

V\u00fdznamn\u00fd je zejm\u00e9na \u00fadaj o\u00a0druh\u00e9 generaci<\/b>. U potomk\u016f syrsk\u00fdch imigrant\u016f dosahoval v roce 2024 v\u011bkov\u011b standardizovan\u00fd index n\u00e1siln\u00e9 kriminality 676, u potomk\u016f osob z Libanonu 496 a u potomk\u016f ze Som\u00e1lska 430. Samotn\u00e1 Danmarks Statistik ve sv\u00e9m koment\u00e1\u0159i upozor\u0148uje na zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 vysok\u00fd index n\u00e1siln\u00e9 kriminality u potomk\u016f ze S\u00fdrie. [34]<\/p>\n

Tato data komplikuj\u00ed jednoduch\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 nadreprezentace automaticky zmiz\u00ed u druh\u00e9 generace. U n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00ed je index potomk\u016f ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u prvn\u00ed generace, u jin\u00fdch je naopak vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. Ani to v\u0161ak samo o sob\u011b nevysv\u011btluje p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinu rozd\u00edlu.<\/p>\n

Ned\u011blejme z racion\u00e1ln\u00ed obez\u0159etnosti automaticky xenofobii<\/h3>\n

Z v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1st postoj\u016f \u010di reakc\u00ed b\u011b\u017en\u011b ozna\u010dovan\u00fdch za xenofobn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zalo\u017eeno na racion\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159edsudku. M\u016f\u017ee v nich hr\u00e1t roli tak\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed statisticky dolo\u017een\u00fdch rozd\u00edl\u016f v m\u00ed\u0159e rizika. Instituce, kter\u00e9 se sna\u017e\u00ed tento mechanismus vym\u00fdtit, tak mohou \u010dinit na \u00fakor bezpe\u010dnosti p\u016fvodn\u00edho obyvatelstva.<\/p>\n

Podklad pro tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee jsme vystaveni zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9mu riziku, nen\u00ed zalo\u017een pouze na pocitu, ale na datech z N\u011bmecka, Finska, D\u00e1nska, \u0160v\u00e9dska a Francie. Pokud st\u00e1t p\u0159i tvorb\u011b migra\u010dn\u00ed a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politiky p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed statisticky dolo\u017een\u00e9 rozd\u00edly v n\u011bkter\u00fdch form\u00e1ch kriminality mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi popula\u010dn\u00edmi skupinami, m\u016f\u017ee t\u00edm oslabovat svou schopnost \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b p\u0159edch\u00e1zet bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm probl\u00e9m\u016fm.<\/p>\n

M\u00edsto automatick\u00e9ho ozna\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch obav za xenofobii a potla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 diskuse o statisticky dolo\u017een\u00fdch rozd\u00edlech v kriminalit\u011b by m\u011bl st\u00e1t v\u011bnovat podstatn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozornost prevenci konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch rizik, na kter\u00e1 mohou statistick\u00e9 \u00fadaje o kriminalit\u011b n\u011bkter\u00fdch popula\u010dn\u00edch skupin upozor\u0148ovat. Ochrana vlastn\u00edch ob\u010dan\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed v dan\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b \u017eij\u00ed, dodr\u017euj\u00ed jeho z\u00e1kony a pod\u00edlej\u00ed se na jeho fungov\u00e1n\u00ed, mus\u00ed pat\u0159it mezi jeho z\u00e1kladn\u00ed priority. St\u00e1t mus\u00ed p\u0159i poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed azylu a p\u0159i tvorb\u011b migra\u010dn\u00ed politiky sou\u010dasn\u011b db\u00e1t na to, aby nebyla oslabena bezpe\u010dnost osob, kter\u00e9 na jeho \u00fazem\u00ed ji\u017e \u017eij\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 republika se dnes s probl\u00e9my spojen\u00fdmi s rozs\u00e1hlej\u0161\u00ed migrac\u00ed z prost\u0159ed\u00ed s v\u00fdrazn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00fdmi spole\u010densk\u00fdmi, pr\u00e1vn\u00edmi a kulturn\u00edmi normami nesetk\u00e1v\u00e1 v takov\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e jako n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00e1padoevropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b. To v\u0161ak samo o sob\u011b nen\u00ed argumentem pro to, abychom mo\u017en\u00e9 budouc\u00ed riziko p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eeli. P\u0159ed dvaceti lety mohli podobn\u011b argumentovat i obyvatel\u00e9 zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 dnes \u0159e\u0161\u00ed d\u016fsledky v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed migrace. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee v n\u011bkolika evropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech m\u016f\u017eeme sledovat podobn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m p\u0159enosu, n\u00e1m d\u00e1v\u00e1 mo\u017enost pou\u010dit se z jejich zku\u0161enost\u00ed a nepova\u017eovat sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice za samoz\u0159ejmost. Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politika m\u00e1 smysl p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm tehdy, kdy\u017e probl\u00e9m\u016fm p\u0159edch\u00e1z\u00ed, nikoliv a\u017e ve chv\u00edli, kdy se naplno projev\u00ed. Pokud by se v budoucnu migra\u010dn\u00ed tlak zv\u00fd\u0161il \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e p\u0159irozen\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem, nebo v d\u016fsledku spole\u010dn\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 migra\u010dn\u00ed politiky \u2013, \u010dekat na vznik stejn\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f i u n\u00e1s by znamenalo za\u010d\u00edt reagovat a\u017e v okam\u017eiku, kdy bude jejich \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b n\u00e1kladn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mnohdy a\u017e nemo\u017en\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Smyslem tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku nen\u00ed ur\u010dovat \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i, co si m\u00e1 myslet. Jej\u00edm c\u00edlem je p\u0159edlo\u017eit dostupn\u00e1 data a souvislosti; vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011br si z nich m\u016f\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd ud\u011blat s\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

D\u011bkuji za pozornost.<\/p>\n

Walter12<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Literatura a datov\u00e9 zdroje<\/b><\/h3>\n

[1] Faulkner, J., Schaller, M., Park, J. H., Duncan, L. A. (2004):\u00a0Evolved Disease-Avoidance Mechanisms and Contemporary Xenophobic Attitudes<\/i>. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1177\/1368430204046142<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[2] Navarrete, C. D., Fessler, D. M. T. (2006):\u00a0Disease avoidance and ethnocentrism: the effects of disease vulnerability and disgust sensitivity on intergroup attitudes<\/i>. Evolution and Human Behavior. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S109051380600002X<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[3] Choi, J.-K., Bowles, S. (2007):\u00a0The Coevolution of Parochial Altruism and War<\/i>. Science. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/17962562\/<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[4] Kusche, I., Barker, J. L. (2019):\u00a0Pathogens and Immigrants: A Critical Appraisal of the Behavioral Immune System as an Explanation of Prejudice Against Ethnic Outgroups<\/i>. Frontiers in Psychology. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/journals\/psychology\/articles\/10.3389\/fpsyg.2019.02412\/full<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[5] Fan, S., Tybur, J. M., Van Lange, P. A. M. (2024):\u00a0Salience of infectious diseases did not increase xenophobia during the COVID-19 pandemic<\/i>. Evolutionary Human Sciences. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/evolutionary-human-sciences\/article\/salience-of-infectious-diseases-did-not-increase-xenophobia-during-the-covid19-pandemic\/750D1B893130CD5E172A7AEC25F8A8F3<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[6] Dyble, M. (2021):\u00a0The evolution of altruism through war is highly sensitive to population structure and to civilian and fighter mortality<\/i>. PNAS. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/33836563\/<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[7] Bundesministerium der Justiz:\u00a0Basic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany<\/i>, \u010dl. 3. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.gesetze-im-internet.de\/englisch_gg\/englisch_gg.html<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[8] Bundesministerium der Justiz:\u00a0General Act on Equal Treatment \u2013 AGG<\/i>, \u00a7 1. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.gesetze-im-internet.de\/englisch_agg\/englisch_agg.html<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[9] Evropsk\u00e1 unie:\u00a0Listina z\u00e1kladn\u00edch pr\u00e1v EU<\/i>, \u010dl. 21. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/eur-lex.europa.eu\/legal-content\/EN\/TXT\/?uri=CELEX:12016P021<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[10] Deutscher Bundestag (2026):\u00a0Tatverd\u00e4chtigenbelastungszahlen ausgew\u00e4hlter Gruppen<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.bundestag.de\/presse\/hib\/kurzmeldungen-1178800<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[11] Bundesregierung \/ Deutscher Bundestag (2026):\u00a0Drucksache 21\/5881 \u2013 Tatverd\u00e4chtigenbelastungszahl in Bezug auf ausgew\u00e4hlte Bev\u00f6lkerungsgruppen im Erfassungsjahr 2025<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/dserver.bundestag.de\/btd\/21\/058\/2105881.pdf<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[12] Bundesregierung (2026):\u00a0Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik 2025<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.bundesregierung.de\/breg-de\/aktuelles\/polizeiliche-kriminalstatistik-2025-2422020<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[13] Bundeskriminalamt:\u00a0PKS 2024 \u2013 Straftaten und Staatsangeh\u00f6rigkeit nichtdeutscher Tatverd\u00e4chtiger, Tabelle T62<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.bka.de\/SharedDocs\/Downloads\/DE\/Publikationen\/PolizeilicheKriminalstatistik\/2024\/Bund\/Tatverdaechtige\/BU-TV-22-T62-TV-Staatsangehoerigkeiten_xls.html<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[14] Bundeskriminalamt:\u00a0PKS \u2013 Tatverd\u00e4chtigenbelastungszahlen a popula\u010dn\u00ed podklady<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.bka.de\/DE\/AktuelleInformationen\/StatistikenLagebilder\/PolizeilicheKriminalstatistik\/PKS2024\/PKSTabellen\/Bev%C3%B6lkerungszahlen\/bevoelkerungsdaten_node.html<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[15] Deutscher Bundestag (2026):\u00a0Gruppenvergewaltigungen im Jahr 2025<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.bundestag.de\/presse\/hib\/kurzmeldungen-1194510<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[16] Deutscher Bundestag (2025): statistika ob\u011bt\u00ed trestn\u00fdch \u010din\u016f podle vybran\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nost\u00ed podez\u0159el\u00fdch. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.bundestag.de\/presse\/hib\/kurzmeldungen-1118098<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[17] Bundeszentrale f\u00fcr politische Bildung:\u00a0Sexualkriminalit\u00e4t<\/i>\u00a0\u2013 statistika a metodick\u00e1 interpretace n\u011bmeck\u00fdch dat. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.bpb.de\/themen\/innere-sicherheit\/dossier-innere-sicherheit\/569782\/sexualkriminalitaet\/<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[18] Br\u00e5 \u2013 Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (2021):\u00a0Registered offending among persons of native and non-native background<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/bra.se\/english\/publications\/archive\/2021-08-25-registered-offending-among-persons-of-native-and-non-native-background<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[19] Br\u00e5 (2021):\u00a0Report 2021:9 \u2013 Registered offending among persons of native and non-native background<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/bra.se\/download\/18.45e4b8e192705389a34c2b\/1729515966490\/2021_9_Registered_offending_among_persons.pdf<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[20] Br\u00e5 (2025):\u00a0Homicide victims and perpetrators \u2013 Socio-economic status, demographic background and criminal history<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/bra.se\/english\/publications\/archive\/2025-07-04-homicide-victims-and-perpetrators<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[21] Br\u00e5 (2026): statistika registrovan\u00fdch podez\u0159el\u00fdch podle v\u011bku a pohlav\u00ed za rok 2025. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/bra.se\/rapporter\/arkiv\/2026-04-23-misstankta-personer-2025<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[22] Minist\u00e8re de l\u2019Int\u00e9rieur \/ SSMSI (2026):\u00a0Ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 et d\u00e9linquance en 2025: une premi\u00e8re photographie<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.interieur.gouv.fr\/actualites\/communiques-de-presse\/insecurite-et-delinquance-en-2025-premiere-photographie<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[23] Minist\u00e8re de l\u2019Int\u00e9rieur \/ SSMSI (2026):\u00a0Ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 et d\u00e9linquance en 2025: bilan statistique et atlas d\u00e9partemental<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.interieur.gouv.fr\/actualites\/communiques-de-presse\/insecurite-et-delinquance-en-2025-bilan-statistique-et-atlas-departemental<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[24] Minist\u00e8re de l\u2019Int\u00e9rieur \/ SSMSI:\u00a0Ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 et d\u00e9linquance en 2024: une premi\u00e8re photographie<\/i>, v\u010detn\u011b pod\u00edlu cizinc\u016f mezi podez\u0159el\u00fdmi. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/mobile.interieur.gouv.fr\/content\/download\/137740\/1088872\/file\/IR_premierePhoto.pdf<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[25] Minist\u00e8re de l\u2019Int\u00e9rieur \/ SSMSI (2026): otev\u0159en\u00e1 datab\u00e1ze hlavn\u00edch charakteristik registrovan\u00fdch ob\u011bt\u00ed a osob \u201emises en cause\u201c podle v\u011bku, pohlav\u00ed a francouzsk\u00e9\/ciz\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nosti. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.interieur.gouv.fr\/fr\/Interstats\/Open-Data-et-Open-source\/Open-data\/Base-de-donnees-sur-les-principales-caracteristiques-des-victimes-enregistrees-et-des-mis-en-cause-pour-des-infractions-elucidees-par-la-police-et-la-gendarmerie-nationales<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[26] Minist\u00e8re de l\u2019Int\u00e9rieur \/ SSMSI: metodika a popis statistick\u00fdch datab\u00e1z\u00ed\u00a0Infractions<\/i>,\u00a0Victimes<\/i>\u00a0a\u00a0Mis en cause<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.interieur.gouv.fr\/Interstats\/Sources-et-methodes-statistiques\/Sources-de-donnees<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[27] Walker, J. T. (2021):\u00a0Ecological Fallacy<\/i>. The Encyclopedia of Research Methods in Criminology and Criminal Justice. DOI\/URL:\u00a0https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/9781119111931.ch98<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[28] Rossmo, D. K., Jones, A. M. (2025):\u00a0Group-individual probability confusion: Implications for suspect prioritization in criminal investigations<\/i>. Journal of Criminal Justice, 99, 102452. DOI\/URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0047235225001011<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[29] Riek, B. M., Mania, E. W., Gaertner, S. L. (2006):\u00a0Intergroup Threat and Outgroup Attitudes: A Meta-Analytic Review<\/i>. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 10(4), 336\u2013353. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/17201592\/<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[30] Rusch, H. (2014):\u00a0The evolutionary interplay of intergroup conflict and altruism in humans: a review of parochial altruism theory and prospects for its extension<\/i>. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 281(1794), 20141539. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/articles\/PMC4211448\/<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[31] Statistics Finland (2019):\u00a0Persons suspected of certain offences by nationality and age in 2017 and 2018, gender and age standardized share per 1,000 citizens<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/stat.fi\/til\/rpk\/2018\/13\/rpk_2018_13_2019-05-16_tie_001_en.html<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[32] Statistics Finland (2026):\u00a013yy \u2013 Persons suspected of solved offences living permanently in Finland by nationality, age, sex, calculation method and year of solving per 10,000 population, 2010\u20132025<\/i>. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/statfin.stat.fi\/PxWeb\/pxweb\/en\/StatFin\/StatFin__rpk\/13yy.px\/<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[33] Danmarks Statistik (2025):\u00a0Indvandrere i Danmark 2025<\/i>, tabulka 6.8 \u2013 kriminalitn\u00ed indexy podle zem\u011b p\u016fvodu a alternativn\u00edch standardizac\u00ed podle v\u011bku, socioekonomick\u00e9ho statusu, vzd\u011bl\u00e1n\u00ed rodiny a p\u0159\u00edjmu rodiny. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.dst.dk\/da\/Statistik\/udgivelser\/VisPub?pid=1174<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

[34] Danmarks Statistik (2025):\u00a0Indvandrere i Danmark 2025<\/i>, tabulky 6.9\u20136.11 \u2013 kriminalitn\u00ed indexy podle p\u016fvodu, generace a typu trestn\u00e9 \u010dinnosti v roce 2024. URL:\u00a0https:\/\/www.dst.dk\/Site\/Dst\/Udgivelser\/GetPubFile.aspx?id=54707&sid=__samlet+publikation+2025<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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