{"id":11449,"date":"2022-06-11T04:27:46","date_gmt":"2022-06-11T02:27:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=11449"},"modified":"2022-06-11T04:27:46","modified_gmt":"2022-06-11T02:27:46","slug":"george-rooke-proste-tak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2022\/06\/11\/george-rooke-proste-tak\/","title":{"rendered":"George Rooke: Prost\u011b tak!"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st na\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b si v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b jist\u011b klade pr\u00e1v\u011b tuto ot\u00e1zku. Pokud se toti\u017e pod\u00edv\u00e1te na kurz dolaru dnes, 7. \u010dervna 2022 – kurz centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky\u00a0uv\u00e1d\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0sm\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch 61 rubl\u016f 11 kop\u011bjek.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n
A pod\u00edvejme se, za jak\u00fd kurz jsou samarsk\u00e9 banky ochotny prod\u00e1vat dolar za ruble?<\/p>\n

Otkritie Bank – za 76,45 RUB.<\/p>\n

OTP Bank – za 75 RUB.<\/p>\n

Sovcombank – za 91 RUB.<\/p>\n

Nejlevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sazbu nab\u00edz\u00ed AK Bars Bank, a to 71,25 rubl\u016f, ale je tak\u00e9 o 10 rubl\u016f dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed sazba.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc nap\u0159\u00edklad rusk\u00e1 Standardn\u00ed banka je p\u0159ipravena dolary neprod\u00e1vat, ale nakupovat za vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenu, ne\u017e je ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed kurz – za 64 rubl\u016f! To vypov\u00edd\u00e1 o jedin\u00e9m – kurz centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky v sou\u010dasnosti neodr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00fd pom\u011br rublu k dolaru nebo euru.<\/p>\n

A to je probl\u00e9m \u010d\u00edslo jedna.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem jsou sankce, nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e nejen sankce, ale masivn\u00ed stahov\u00e1n\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch druh\u016f v\u00fdrobc\u016f z rusk\u00e9ho trhu. Pod\u00edvejme se podrobn\u011bji na oblast elektroniky, ve kter\u00e9 autor pracuje v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 let.<\/p>\n

Z rusk\u00e9ho trhu nap\u0159\u00edklad odch\u00e1zej\u00ed spole\u010dnosti Nokia, Asus, Cisco, Mitsubishi Electric, IBM a HP, zat\u00edmco Canon, LG, Samsung, Toshiba, Intel, Qualcomm, Xerox, Acer a Sony pozastavily svou \u010dinnost v Rusku (cel\u00fd seznam naleznete\u00a0zde<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Lenovo a Xiaomi ti\u0161e, ale metodicky sni\u017euj\u00ed sv\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky a\u00a0Huawei p\u0159estal p\u0159ij\u00edmat objedn\u00e1vky<\/a>\u00a0a st\u00e1hl se z rusk\u00e9ho firemn\u00edho trhu, i kdy\u017e Rusko neopou\u0161t\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b.<\/p>\n

Jak vid\u00edte, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ichni v\u00fdznamn\u00ed v\u00fdrobci elektroniky a IT opustili Rusko nebo pozastavili svou \u010dinnost do \u010dervna. Proto se ceny v r\u016fzn\u00fdch kategori\u00edch zvy\u0161uj\u00ed v rozmez\u00ed od 30 % do 100 %. Zhruba \u0159e\u010deno, obchody s elektronikou nyn\u00ed prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed to, co je\u0161t\u011b zb\u00fdv\u00e1 na sklad\u011b.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 v\u0161ak situaci zachr\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed v\u00fdrobci ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed kategorie nebo \u201e\u0161ed\u00e9\u201c mont\u00e1\u017ee? Ano, na chv\u00edli ano. Nap\u0159\u00edklad \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd Haier, jeden z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdrobc\u016f elektroniky a dom\u00e1c\u00edch spot\u0159ebi\u010d\u016f, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v Rusku, ale podle\u00a0pr\u016fzkumu Nikkei Asia<\/a>\u00a0stoj\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti p\u0159ed obt\u00ed\u017enou volbou. Za prv\u00e9, USA jsou nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem \u010c\u00edny. V roce 2021 vzrostla hodnota obchodu s USA o 30 % a dos\u00e1hla historick\u00e9ho maxima.\u00a0V\u00fdvoz do USA \u010dinil 577,13 miliardy dolar\u016f, dovoz z USA 541,53 miliardy dolar\u016f<\/a>\u00a0a obchodn\u00ed obrat 1,118 bilionu dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed,\u00a0v\u00fdvoz z Ruska do \u010c\u00edny v roce 2020 \u010dinil 49,3 miliardy dolar\u016f, dovoz z \u010c\u00edny do Ruska 50,7 miliardy dolar\u016f a celkov\u00fd obchodn\u00ed obrat \u010dinil 100 miliard dolar\u016f<\/a>, tedy m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 10 % obchodn\u00edho obratu USA.<\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, \u010c\u00edna je z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na americk\u00fdch spole\u010dnostech, kter\u00e9 vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed polovodi\u010de a dal\u0161\u00ed vysp\u011bl\u00e9 technologie.<\/p>\n

Neo\u010dek\u00e1vejte tedy, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna s radost\u00ed zapln\u00ed mezeru po z\u00e1padn\u00edch spole\u010dnostech, kter\u00e9 opustily Rusko. Peking si ve v\u0161em hled\u00ed sv\u00e9ho. Nap\u0159\u00edklad spole\u010dnost Fuyao Glass Industry Group, v\u00fdrobce automobilov\u00e9ho skla, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 z\u00e1vod v Rusku, kde se 40 % produkce vyv\u00e1\u017eelo,\u00a0se nyn\u00ed rozhodla zav\u0159\u00edt z\u00e1vod a vyr\u00e1b\u011bt sklo na v\u00fdvoz v tov\u00e1rn\u00e1ch v \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/a><\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee Rusko samo za\u010d\u00edt vyr\u00e1b\u011bt vlastn\u00ed notebooky, chytr\u00e9 telefony atd.? Bohu\u017eel v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b jsou\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00ed procesory Baikal a Elbrus z hlediska v\u00fdkonu a energetick\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dinnosti mnohem hor\u0161\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0ne\u017e procesory Intel a AMD a nav\u00edc maj\u00ed mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cenu.<\/p>\n

To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee za stejn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek bude rusk\u00fd notebook dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed a hor\u0161\u00ed. Nav\u00edc, a\u010dkoli tyto procesory skute\u010dn\u011b vyv\u00edjej\u00ed ru\u0161t\u00ed odborn\u00edci, jejich v\u00fdroba prob\u00edh\u00e1 v zahrani\u010d\u00ed (tchajwansk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost TSMC) a pr\u00e1v\u011b na ni se vztahuj\u00ed sankce.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp) je \u010dasto zmi\u0148ov\u00e1na jako mo\u017en\u00e1 alternativa k TSMC. Vl\u00e1da USA v\u0161ak ji\u017e pohrozila, \u017ee tuto spole\u010dnost \u201ezni\u010d\u00ed\u201c, pokud bude pom\u00e1hat p\u0159i v\u00fdrob\u011b Elbrusu a Bajkalu. A \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 po t\u011bchto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch nemaj\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed chu\u0165 riskovat.<\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed dv\u011b mo\u017enosti.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed je n\u00e1kup p\u0159es tranzitn\u00ed zem\u011b, jako je Kazachst\u00e1n nebo Uzbekist\u00e1n, na kter\u00e9 se sankce nevztahuj\u00ed. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u00fdrobci p\u0159ed t\u00edm zat\u00edm zav\u00edraj\u00ed o\u010di, ale situace se m\u016f\u017ee kdykoli zm\u011bnit. Krom\u011b toho se t\u00edm kone\u010dn\u00e1 cena zvy\u0161uje nejm\u00e9n\u011b o 20-30 %. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u011bkolika takov\u00fdch transakc\u00ed (nap\u0159\u00edklad \u010c\u00edna prod\u00e1v\u00e1 elektronick\u00e9 v\u00fdrobky do \u00cdr\u00e1nu, \u00cdr\u00e1n do Kazachst\u00e1nu a Kazachst\u00e1n do Ruska) se cena m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it o 100, ale i o 150 %.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna uva\u017euje o p\u0159em\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed technologick\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed do t\u0159et\u00edch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohly obej\u00edt sankce a dod\u00e1vat Rusku popt\u00e1van\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed. Zat\u00edm se v\u0161ak jedn\u00e1 pouze o pl\u00e1ny, zda budou realizov\u00e1ny, nen\u00ed zn\u00e1mo.<\/p>\n

Jedinou progn\u00f3zou tak v tuto chv\u00edli je, \u017ee nab\u00eddka elektronick\u00fdch v\u00fdrobk\u016f bude klesat, jejich ceny d\u00e1le porostou a v d\u016fsledku toho dojde k rozvoji v oblasti oprav toho, co m\u00e1me. Zat\u00edmco baterie, pouzdra, nap\u00e1jec\u00ed zdroje, kl\u00ed\u010denky a matrice se daj\u00ed v Rusku docela dob\u0159e vyr\u00e1b\u011bt, s procesory, grafick\u00fdmi kartami a pevn\u00fdmi disky je to sm\u016fla.<\/p>\n

Kdyby se v\u0161ak tento probl\u00e9m t\u00fdkal pouze elektroniky, bylo by mo\u017en\u00e9 se s n\u00edm vypo\u0159\u00e1dat. Takov\u00e1 je bohu\u017eel situace ve v\u0161ech odv\u011btv\u00edch bez v\u00fdjimky, v\u010detn\u011b lehk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, zpracovatelsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu a zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed. Z toho plyne r\u016fst cen, kter\u00fd bude pokra\u010dovat.<\/p>\n

Co by se v t\u00e9to situaci dalo d\u011blat?<\/p>\n

Vybudovat n\u00e1rodn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a n\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00fdrobu, to v\u0161ak vy\u017eaduje kompletn\u00ed revizi da\u0148ov\u00e9, \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u00ed politiky st\u00e1tu, co\u017e se k nejhlub\u0161\u00ed l\u00edtosti zat\u00edm ned\u011bje. Rusko se zat\u00edm vyh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1 na superzv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch ropy a plynu a douf\u00e1, \u017ee nebude muset nic m\u011bnit a \u017ee se v\u0161e n\u011bjak vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed samo.<\/p>\n

\n
\"[...]\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
\n

\u041f\u0440\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e \u0442\u0430\u043a<\/a> vy\u0161el 7.6.2022 na zen.yandex.ru. P\u0159eklad Zv\u011bdavec.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

P\u0159evzato:\u00a0\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st na\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b si v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b jist\u011b klade pr\u00e1v\u011b tuto ot\u00e1zku. Pokud se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1830,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[503,1324,2113],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11449"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11449\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}