{"id":114248,"date":"2026-08-27T00:30:59","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T22:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=114248"},"modified":"2026-08-26T17:48:42","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T15:48:42","slug":"hua-bin-co-se-bude-dit-dal-po-porazce-v-iranske-valce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/27\/hua-bin-co-se-bude-dit-dal-po-porazce-v-iranske-valce\/","title":{"rendered":"Hua Bin: Co se bude d\u00edt d\u00e1l po por\u00e1\u017ece v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Jadern\u00e9 hrozby Elbridge Colbyho v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b jdou daleko za hranice psych\u00f3zy<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">Dobr\u00fd kamar\u00e1d na Substacku mi ve sv\u00e9m koment\u00e1\u0159i k m\u00e9 eseji o Nolanov\u011b filmu Odyssea<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0vypr\u00e1v\u011bl \u0159eck\u00fd vtip\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ath\u00e9\u0148an se d\u00edval na obraz zobrazuj\u00edc\u00ed bitvu, ve kter\u00e9 Ath\u00e9\u0148an\u00e9 porazili a povra\u017edili spartsk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00edky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mu\u017e zvolal: \u201eState\u010dn\u00ed, state\u010dn\u00ed Ath\u00e9\u0148an\u00e9!\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eAno,\u201c su\u0161e ho p\u0159eru\u0161il nedalek\u00fd Spar\u0165an, \u201e\u2013 v obrazech.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo \u010detl Thukydidovy\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">d\u011bjiny pelopon\u00e9sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky,<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0v\u00ed, \u017ee Spar\u0165an\u00e9 Ath\u00e9\u0148an\u016fm v bitv\u011b po\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b porazil \u2013 \u201evyhladili\u201c Ath\u00e9ny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh je klasick\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem \u201elakonick\u00e9ho vtipu\u201c \u2013 such\u00e9ho, tup\u00e9ho humoru, pro kter\u00fd byli Spar\u0165an\u00e9 proslul\u00ed. Je pops\u00e1n v Plutarchov\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdroc\u00edch Spar\u0165an\u016f<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ten vtip mi p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1, jak \u201eneporaziteln\u00e1\u201c je americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da \u2013\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">v hollywoodsk\u00fdch filmech<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Podobn\u011b jako u Ath\u00e9\u0148an\u016f se i v\u00fdkony USA v re\u00e1ln\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b pon\u011bkud li\u0161\u00ed od t\u011bch v Hollywoodu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Jedna lidsk\u00e1 vlastnost, kter\u00e1 m\u011b bav\u00ed, je \u0161\u00edlen\u00e1 horlivost hazardn\u00edka, kter\u00fd zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed svou s\u00e1zku pot\u00e9, co u\u017e\u00a0prohr\u00e1l\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">ko\u0161ili .<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Chov\u00e1m s nechut\u00ed respekt a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pobavenou ned\u016fv\u011bru k high rollerovi, kter\u00fd je ochoten p\u0159ij\u00edt\u00a0i o\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">spodn\u00ed pr\u00e1dlo .<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dne\u0161n\u00ed americk\u00e9 imp\u00e9rium se svou finan\u010dn\u00ed politikou a veden\u00edm \u201eban\u00e1nov\u00e9 republiky\u201c st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 takov\u00e9ho hr\u00e1\u010de, kter\u00fd po s\u00e9rii sm\u016fly vsad\u00ed v\u0161echno.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">USA zdvojn\u00e1sobuj\u00ed sv\u016fj z\u00e1vazek v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Elbridge Colby podnikl v polovin\u011b srpna cestu do Asie, b\u011bhem n\u00ed\u017e nav\u0161t\u00edvil Manilu, Soul a Tokio.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Colby je jako n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra obrany USA t\u0159et\u00ed osobou v Pentagonu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Je autorem N\u00e1rodn\u00ed obrann\u00e9 strategie (NDS). Jeho hlavn\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed: \u010c\u00edna.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u0160esta\u010dty\u0159icetilet\u00fd Colby je na\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">ministerstvu v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0pova\u017eov\u00e1n za chytr\u00e9ho \u010dlov\u011bka \u2013 na rozd\u00edl od Hegsetha, kter\u00e9ho poh\u00e1n\u00ed testosteron a jeho\u017e IQ je na \u00farovni pokojov\u00e9 teploty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">USA musely st\u00e1hnout z regionu zna\u010dn\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed \u201ezdroj\u016f\u201c pro pou\u017eit\u00ed v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii, v\u010detn\u011b syst\u00e9mu THAAD, letadlov\u00e9 lodi \u201eGeorge Washington\u201c a velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u00e9ho raketov\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Colbyho n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bva m\u011bla \u00fadajn\u011b p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit \u201espojence a partnery\u201c USA ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii o jejich \u201ez\u00e1vazku\u201c s ohledem na vleklou v\u00e1lku s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Colby p\u0159ednesl v Manile \u00favodn\u00ed projev. Znovu potvrdil americkou politiku odrazov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny v \u201eIndo-Pacifiku\u201c \u2013 fiktivn\u00edm geografick\u00e9m konceptu, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem je udr\u017eet \u010c\u00ednu na uzd\u011b zahrnut\u00edm Indie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">I kdy\u017e je takov\u00e9 poselstv\u00ed americk\u00e9ho re\u017eimu kli\u0161\u00e9, agresivn\u00ed ostrost jeho slov je neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u011bt\u0161ina pozorovatel\u016f o\u010dek\u00e1vala zdr\u017eenlivost americk\u00e9 agrese vzhledem k nev\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu vojensk\u00e9mu v\u00fdkonu USA v \u00cdr\u00e1nu a vyhl\u00eddce na dal\u0161\u00ed \u201ev\u011b\u010dnou v\u00e1lku\u201c v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee USA si udr\u017e\u00ed \u201estrategickou stabilitu\u201c ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se budou vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1vat s n\u00e1sledky sv\u00e9ho ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9ho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Colby m\u00edsto toho za\u0161el je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l. Znovu potvrdil \u201eneochv\u011bjn\u00fd z\u00e1vazek Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f k obran\u011b Prvn\u00edho ostrovn\u00edho \u0159et\u011bzce\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vyzval asijsk\u00e9 prost\u0159edn\u00edky, aby v konfliktu s \u010c\u00ednou jednali jako z\u00e1stupci v prvn\u00ed linii zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu, roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm americk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm z\u00e1sob zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nejv\u00edce alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed zpr\u00e1vou je sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed americk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho prahu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Colby ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee Pentagon reviduje americkou jadernou doktr\u00ednu, aby \u201edal prezidentovi v\u00edce mo\u017enost\u00ed\u201c, jeliko\u017e si americk\u00fd re\u017eim uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee jeho \u0161ance na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v konven\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lce se st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le nere\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Od vstupu do jadern\u00e9ho klubu v roce 1964 \u010c\u00edna prosazuje jadernou doktr\u00ednu \u201e\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 prvn\u00ed pou\u017eit\u00ed\u201c (NFU). Pro revizi americk\u00e9 doktr\u00edny existuje pouze jedno vysv\u011btlen\u00ed \u2013 USA zva\u017euj\u00ed jadern\u00fd \u00fader prvn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tato zpr\u00e1va p\u0159irozen\u011b vyvolala v \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch kruz\u00edch velk\u00e9 znepokojen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pozd\u011bji budu hovo\u0159it o tom, jak by prvn\u00ed \u00fader nevyhnuteln\u011b vedl k \u00fapln\u00e9mu zni\u010den\u00ed USA \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm proti\u00faderem.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Diagn\u00f3za bludn\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nev\u00edm, kter\u00fd konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed l\u00e9ka\u0159sk\u00fd \u201esyndrom\u201c popisuje stav, kdy se \u010dlov\u011bk po opakovan\u00fdch por\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1ch st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le v\u00edce v\u00e1le\u010dnick\u00fdm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Existuje v\u0161ak n\u011bkolik psychiatrick\u00fdch poruch, kter\u00e9 odpov\u00eddaj\u00ed symptom\u016fm, je\u017e projevoval Colby a americk\u00fd re\u017eim.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V chov\u00e1n\u00ed zv\u00ed\u0159at a evolu\u010dn\u00ed psychologii obvykle vede\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eefekt pora\u017een\u00e9ho\u201c<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0k tomu, \u017ee se jedinci po por\u00e1\u017ece poddaj\u00ed, aby se vyhnuli dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fajm\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V situac\u00edch zoufalstv\u00ed nebo n\u00edzk\u00e9 kontroly impulz\u016f v\u0161ak doch\u00e1z\u00ed k obratu, kdy opakovan\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky vedou sp\u00ed\u0161e k eskalaci ne\u017e k podroben\u00ed se.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto je zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u201eefekt obr\u00e1cen\u00e9ho pora\u017een\u00e9ho<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Existuje tak\u00e9 m\u00e9n\u011b diplomatick\u00fd term\u00edn \u201e\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">efekt pasti na krysy<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u201c, kter\u00fd popisuje reakci na hrozbu, p\u0159i n\u00ed\u017e se reak\u010dn\u00ed re\u017eim zm\u011bn\u00ed z \u201e\u00fat\u011bku\u201c na \u201eboj\u201c, kdy\u017e opakovan\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky eliminuj\u00ed v\u0161echny vn\u00edman\u00e9 mo\u017enosti \u00fastupu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">A u vysoce narcistick\u00fdch jedinc\u016f existuje \u201e\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">narcistick\u00fd vztek<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u201c, kdy opakovan\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017eky zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed \u201enarcistick\u00e9 zran\u011bn\u00ed\u201c, kter\u00e9 ohro\u017euje jejich p\u0159ehnan\u00e9 sebeobraz.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V takov\u00e9m \u201enarcistick\u00e9m zu\u0159iv\u00e9m z\u00e1chvatu\u201c pacient m\u00edsto ustoupen\u00ed reaguje rostouc\u00edm nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00edm, intenzivn\u00edm hn\u011bvem a nekone\u010dn\u00fdmi odvetn\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi, aby obnovil svou vn\u00edmanou dominanci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">L\u00e9ka\u0159i klasifikuj\u00ed takov\u00e9 chronick\u00e9 sklony k n\u00e1sil\u00ed jako\u00a0<\/span><em><span dir=\"auto\">poruchy osobnosti<\/span><\/em><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u2013 intermitentn\u00ed explozivn\u00ed poruchu (IED) a opozi\u010dn\u00ed vzdorovitou poruchu (ODD).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V politologii a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztaz\u00edch se k popisu supervelmoci chuj\u00edc\u00ed se jako \u0161\u00edlenec pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 n\u011bkolik m\u00e9n\u011b obrazn\u00fdch term\u00edn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pat\u0159\u00ed mezi n\u011b \u201eeskalace anga\u017eovanosti\u201c, \u201ekompenza\u010dn\u00ed agrese\u201c nebo \u201echyby zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 utopen\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">A\u0165 u\u017e je takov\u00e9 psychotick\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed jakkoli pops\u00e1no \u2013 v historii jsme ji\u017e za\u017eili velk\u00e9 mocensk\u00e9 imploze, kter\u00e9 jsou srovnateln\u00e9 se sou\u010dasn\u00fdm chov\u00e1n\u00edm USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V letech 431 a\u017e 404 p\u0159. n. l., b\u011bhem ji\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 pelopon\u00e9sk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, byly Ath\u00e9ny zapleteny do vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho boje proti Spart\u011b a ztratily vliv.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">M\u00edsto usilov\u00e1n\u00ed o m\u00edr, p\u00fdcha a arogance Ath\u00e9\u0148an\u016f je dohnala k \u00fatok\u016fm na jejich sousedy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ath\u00e9ny vyslaly flotilu na mal\u00fd ostrov Melos, neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed ostrov, kter\u00fd si prost\u011b p\u0159\u00e1l b\u00fdt ponech\u00e1n na pokoji.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ath\u00e9nsk\u00e9 vyslance po\u017eadovali, aby se M\u00e9lijci vzdali a zaplatili hold \u2013 jinak jim hrozilo \u00fapln\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e se M\u00e9lijci pokou\u0161eli polemizovat o mor\u00e1lce, spravedlnosti a boz\u00edch, Ath\u00e9\u0148an\u00e9 je uml\u010deli \u010distou, nefal\u0161ovanou realpolitikou:<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span dir=\"auto\">&#8222;Siln\u00ed d\u011blaj\u00ed, co mohou, a slab\u00ed sn\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed, co mus\u00ed.&#8220;<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">M\u00e9lijci se odm\u00edtli vzd\u00e1t. Ath\u00e9\u0148an\u00e9 ostrov obl\u00e9hali, popravili v\u0161echny dosp\u011bl\u00e9 mu\u017ee a \u017eeny a d\u011bti prodali do otroctv\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V roce 415 p\u0159. n. l. sklidily Ath\u00e9ny, co zasely.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zaslepeni aroganc\u00ed a p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00edm, \u017ee jejich nezlomn\u00e1 moc je \u010din\u00ed neporaziteln\u00fdmi, zah\u00e1jili Ath\u00e9ny masivn\u00ed a agresivn\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed invazi na Sic\u00edlii, aby dobyli Syrakusy \u2013 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho rivala.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Expedice byla katastrof\u00e1ln\u00edm ne\u00fasp\u011bchem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">At\u00e9nsk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo bylo zni\u010deno, des\u00edtky tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f byly zajaty a At\u00e9ny ztratily v\u011bt\u0161inu sv\u00e9 flotily.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ath\u00e9ny nikdy nez\u00edskaly zp\u011bt svou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u0159evahu a nakonec v\u00e1lku zcela prohr\u00e1ly se Spartou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Thukydides ve sv\u00e9 knize napsal, \u017ee \u0159\u00ed\u0161e zalo\u017een\u00e9 na logice hrub\u00e9 s\u00edly, pokrytectv\u00ed a principu \u201emoc d\u011bl\u00e1 pr\u00e1vo\u201c se nakonec zni\u010d\u00ed sama svou vlastn\u00ed aroganc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dal\u0161\u00ed \u0159\u00ed\u0161\u00ed, kter\u00e1 kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 aroganci zkrachovala, byla Napoleonova francouzsk\u00e1 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e v roce 1812.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Napoleonova arm\u00e1da uv\u00edzla ve \u0160pan\u011blsku b\u011bhem \u201ev\u00e1lky na poloostrov\u011b\u201c a nebyla schopna zlomit m\u00edstn\u00ed odpor ani donutit Brit\u00e1nii ke kapitulaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Napoleon, hnan\u00fd pot\u0159ebou prosadit kontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9m a demonstrovat absolutn\u00ed nadvl\u00e1du v Evrop\u011b, situaci vyhrotil t\u00edm, \u017ee k invazi do Ruska vyzval Velkou arm\u00e1du (p\u0159es 600 000 mu\u017e\u016f).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Taktika sp\u00e1len\u00e9 zem\u011b a krut\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 zima zni\u010dily francouzskou arm\u00e1du.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">M\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 100 000 mu\u017e\u016f p\u0159e\u017eilo, co\u017e vyvolalo v\u00e1lku \u0161est\u00e9 koalice, Napoleonovu abdikaci a konec Francouzsk\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">B\u011bhem druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky se c\u00edsa\u0159sk\u00e9 Japonsko od roku 1937 zapletlo do n\u00e1kladn\u00e9 a nevyhrateln\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed v\u00e1lky v \u010c\u00edn\u011b, kter\u00e1 v\u00e1\u017en\u011b vy\u010derpala jeho zdroje a vedla k ochromuj\u00edc\u00edm obchodn\u00edm embarg\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">M\u00edsto vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o sta\u017een\u00ed z \u010c\u00edny za\u0161lo japonsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 veden\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1l.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V roce 1941 za\u00fato\u010dila na USA v Pearl Harboru, aby si zajistila z\u00e1soby ropy v jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, a s\u00e1zela na to, \u017ee tato agrese sraz\u00ed na kolena mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mocnost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto rozhodnut\u00ed mobilizovalo nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou mocnost sv\u011bta proti Japonsku, co\u017e vedlo k \u00fapln\u00e9mu zni\u010den\u00ed japonsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva, letectva a velk\u00fdch m\u011bst, a tak\u00e9 k svr\u017een\u00ed dvou atomov\u00fdch bomb na Japonsko.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Paralelou k Japonsku je jeho spojenec z druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, nacistick\u00e9 N\u011bmecko.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pot\u00e9, co se N\u011bmecku v bitv\u011b o Brit\u00e1nii nepoda\u0159ilo vytla\u010dit Brit\u00e1nii z v\u00e1lky, \u010delila zem\u011b neur\u010dit\u00e9 blok\u00e1d\u011b a mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00e1lce na dvou front\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bmecko p\u0159ecenilo svou vlastn\u00ed neporazitelnost a hnan\u00e9 ideologickou aroganc\u00ed zah\u00e1jilo v roce 1941 p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd \u00fatok na Sov\u011btsk\u00fd svaz operac\u00ed Barbarossa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Hitler \u010delil n\u00e1rodu, kter\u00fd m\u011bl mnohem v\u00edce person\u00e1lu, rozlohy a kapacity pro v\u00e1le\u010dnou v\u00fdrobu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">N\u011bmecko se zapletlo do vyhlazovac\u00ed v\u00e1lky na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed front\u011b, kter\u00e1 zni\u010dila Wehrmacht a nakonec vedla k \u00fapln\u00e9mu dobyt\u00ed Berl\u00edna a rozpu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u201eTis\u00edclet\u00e9 T\u0159et\u00ed \u0159\u00ed\u0161e\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">St\u00e1le v\u00edce to vypad\u00e1, jako by americk\u00e9 imp\u00e9rium kr\u00e1\u010delo ve stop\u00e1ch sv\u00fdch imperi\u00e1ln\u00edch p\u0159edch\u016fdc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Elbridge Colby a jeho nad\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed by mohli m\u00edt prosp\u011bch ze studia vlastn\u00ed \u201ez\u00e1padn\u00ed\u201c historie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ale samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed a osadnick\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e v jejich z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00fdch f\u00e1z\u00edch jsou ovl\u00e1d\u00e1ny nev\u011bdom\u00fdmi a zlomysln\u00fdmi klauny, pro kter\u00e9 je u\u010den\u00ed n\u011b\u010d\u00edm pro \u201eztroskotance\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Co se stane, kdy\u017e vypukne v\u00e1lka v Prvn\u00edm ostrovn\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzci?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">U\u017e jsem na Substacku napsal mnoho esej\u016f o tom, pro\u010d z vojensk\u00e9ho hlediska nemaj\u00ed USA \u0161anci vyhr\u00e1t v\u00e1lku s \u010c\u00ednou v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Pacifiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tak\u017ee se nebudu opakovat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Dovolte mi m\u00edsto toho p\u0159irovnat \u010c\u00ednu k \u00cdr\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed nad USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna je \u0161estkr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1n a m\u00e1 v\u00edce ne\u017e 14kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed populaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 ekonomika je 40kr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 arm\u00e1du \u010d\u00edtaj\u00edc\u00ed 2 miliony voj\u00e1k\u016f, co\u017e je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1da na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 integrovan\u00fd syst\u00e9m protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo ne\u017e USA a letectvo se schopnostmi srovnateln\u00fdmi s USAF.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna disponuje schopnostmi ve vesm\u00edru a kyberprostoru, kter\u00e9 v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nejsou hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e schopnosti USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna disponuje jadernou tri\u00e1dou a dostate\u010dn\u00fdm mno\u017estv\u00edm jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, aby v odvetn\u00e9m \u00faderu zni\u010dila USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna disponuje raketov\u00fdm a bezpilotn\u00edm arzen\u00e1lem, kter\u00fd je kvalitativn\u011b i kvantitativn\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1n nebo USA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e9 bezpilotn\u00ed syst\u00e9my (na zemi, ve vzduchu, na mo\u0159i i pod vodou) a jej\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence jsou na sv\u011btov\u00e9 \u00farovni.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00e1lka u pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u010c\u00edny by ve skute\u010dnosti byla tak jednostrann\u00e1, \u017ee samotn\u00fd Pentagon p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00edch nevydr\u017e\u00ed d\u00e9le ne\u017e n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V\u00fdsledky v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch her byly podrobn\u011b pops\u00e1ny v d\u016fv\u011brn\u00e9 studii s n\u00e1zvem \u201e\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Zpr\u00e1va o nadvl\u00e1d\u011b<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">M\u016f\u017eete si p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst redak\u010dn\u00ed koment\u00e1\u0159 New York Times k t\u00e9to studii (bez paywallu).\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/zmyx.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/overmatched-NYT-editorial.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">https:\/\/zmyx.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/overmatched-NYT-editorial.pdf<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pod\u00edvejme se nyn\u00ed na to, co mohou \u201espojenci\u201c USA p\u0159isp\u011bt ve v\u00e1lce v z\u00e1padn\u00edm Pacifiku, jak po\u017eaduje Colby.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zaprv\u00e9 je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Ji\u017en\u00ed Korea, jeden z \u201espojenc\u016f\u201c USA v regionu, zas\u00e1hla.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Soul v\u00ed, \u017ee jeho ekonomika z\u00e1vis\u00ed na obchodu s \u010c\u00ednou. Zem\u011b le\u017e\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo na jej\u00edch prahech. Na severu m\u00e1 souseda, kter\u00fd od n\u00ed ji\u017e nyn\u00ed po\u017eaduje v\u00edce, ne\u017e je schopna zvl\u00e1dnout.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Japonsko, Filip\u00edny a Austr\u00e1lie tak zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed jako mo\u017en\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci vojensk\u00e9 akce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bez ohledu na jeho sou\u010dasn\u00fd politick\u00fd postoj, jakmile se kulky skute\u010dn\u011b rozjedou, Washington zjist\u00ed, kdo je jeho skute\u010dn\u00fdm poskokem, nebo kdo je ochotn\u00fd slou\u017eit jako d\u011blov\u00e9 krmivo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">P\u0159edpokl\u00e1dejme, \u017ee se v\u0161ichni z\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed, a analyzujeme, co se stane.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna bude pot\u011b\u0161ena, \u017ee si s Japonci vy\u0159\u00edd\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty za jejich barbarsk\u00e9 zv\u011brstva v \u010d\u00ednsko-japonsk\u00fdch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch 20. stolet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Cel\u00e9 Japonsko le\u017e\u00ed v dosahu konven\u010dn\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f \u010c\u00edny \u2013 od raket a\u017e po drony.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Japonsko \u201ehostiteluje\u201c 130 americk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen, co\u017e je nejv\u00edce na sv\u011bt\u011b, a \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 pln\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo uzav\u0159\u00edt jakoukoli japonskou infrastrukturu, pokud je vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na k podpo\u0159e v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Tokio mus\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1vat masivn\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky a roje dron\u016f proti japonsk\u00fdm ostrov\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Peking m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 blokovat p\u0159\u00edstup Japonska k energii a potravin\u00e1m. Japonsko dov\u00e1\u017e\u00ed 90 % energie a 60 % potravin.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mezi \u010c\u00ed\u0148any neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd soucit s uvalen\u00edm nejp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho trestu na Japonsko \u2013 kter\u00e9 se chovalo jako zv\u00ed\u0159ata s nepopsateln\u00fdmi v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdmi zlo\u010diny a nikdy neprojevilo l\u00edtost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by se Japonsko zapojilo do v\u00e1lky, lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat \u00fapln\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed jak jeho ekonomiky, tak i fyzick\u00e9 infrastruktury.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Austr\u00e1lie je jako \u010divava, vrt\u00ed ocasem a n\u00e1sleduje sv\u00e9ho p\u00e1na na ka\u017ed\u00e9m kroku v ka\u017ed\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, kterou USA rozpoutaly od Koreje.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Ale v\u011brn\u00fd pes je z vojensk\u00e9ho hlediska irelevantn\u00ed. Jeho mal\u00e1 populace, vzd\u00e1lenost od z\u00e1padn\u00edho Pacifiku a zanedbateln\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 s\u00edla z n\u011bj \u010din\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e obt\u00ed\u017e ne\u017e hrozbu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Austr\u00e1lie je siln\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na obchodu s \u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00fd spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v t\u011b\u017eb\u011b surovin ze zem\u011b za \u00fa\u010delem jejich prodeje \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by se Canberra z\u00fa\u010dastnila v\u00e1lky proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b, bylo by v s\u00e1zce jej\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud je Austr\u00e1lie \u0161t\u011bkaj\u00edc\u00ed \u010divava, pak jsou Filip\u00edny jako vojensk\u00e1 mocnost prost\u011b vtip.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zem\u011b m\u00e1 nejzkorumpovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1du a nejslab\u0161\u00ed arm\u00e1du v jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, s letectvem a n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvem vybaven\u00fdm zastaral\u00fdmi americk\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi z 50. a 60. let.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Manila tak\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed n\u011bkolik z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed z vrakovi\u0161\u0165 z druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad \u201eSierra Madre\u201c, kter\u00e1 najela na m\u011bl\u010dinu na \u00fatesu Ren&#8217;ai v Jiho\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Krom\u011b nedostatku vojensk\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed maj\u00ed Filip\u00edny jen malou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed identitu, proto\u017ee souostrov\u00ed nebylo a\u017e do roku 1946 n\u00e1rodn\u00edm st\u00e1tem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vl\u00e1dla mu \u0159ada koloni\u00e1ln\u00edch okupant\u016f a po \u201enez\u00e1vislosti\u201c i n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z nejzkorumpovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dikt\u00e1tor\u016f a oligarch\u016f sv\u011bta.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Je to doslova \u201eban\u00e1nov\u00e1 republika\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">S men\u0161\u00ed palebnou silou ne\u017e Katar nebo Kuvajt, kter\u00e9 vynakl\u00e1daj\u00ed na obranu desetkr\u00e1t v\u00edce ne\u017e Filip\u00edny, se Manila ani nehod\u00ed jako d\u011blov\u00e9 krmivo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Bude slou\u017eit p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jako c\u00edl pro zachycen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch raket nam\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdch na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno: Americk\u00e1 \u201espojeneck\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165\u201c, na kterou se Colby a Pentagon spol\u00e9haj\u00ed, nep\u0159edstavuje v tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce v\u00fdznamnou \u201ev\u00fdhodu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">A co dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u201en\u00e1stroje\u201c, pokud vypukne v\u00e1lka?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Mezi dal\u0161\u00edmi tolik chv\u00e1len\u00fdmi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi \u201estrategiemi\u201c proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b pat\u0159\u00ed blokov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho dovozu energie p\u0159es Malack\u00fd pr\u016fliv a uvalen\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch sankc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka a v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee takov\u00e9 man\u00e9vry se obr\u00e1t\u00ed proti odhodlan\u00fdm protivn\u00edk\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna je nav\u00edc v \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e9 lize ne\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1n a Rusko, pokud jde o schopnost odvety.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by USA a jejich vazalov\u00e9 uzav\u0159eli region\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fazk\u00e1 hrdla nebo naru\u0161ili n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravu, aby vyvinuli tlak na Peking, okam\u017eit\u011b by na opl\u00e1tku od\u0159\u00edzli sv\u00e1 vlastn\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed odv\u011btv\u00ed od dod\u00e1vek energie, sou\u010d\u00e1stek a potravin.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna disponuje rozs\u00e1hlou a sob\u011bsta\u010dnou s\u00edt\u00ed zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch a pozemn\u00edch zdroj\u016f; izolovan\u00e9 ostrovn\u00ed st\u00e1ty, jako je Japonsko a Filip\u00edny, by za stejn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek mohly \u010delit rychl\u00e9 spole\u010densk\u00e9 paral\u00fdze.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm sv\u011btov\u00fdm zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdm producentem a p\u0159edstavuje 37 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 produkce. Je tak\u00e9 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou velmoc\u00ed a p\u0159edstavuje 33 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 produkce.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!MZY7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8573a2e1-c2f6-46c3-964d-5daa62f13451_441x586.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"522\" height=\"694\" \/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Krom\u011b toho by se v\u0161echny st\u00e1ty \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edc\u00ed se blok\u00e1dy Malack\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu musely vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi hypersonick\u00fdmi protilodn\u00edmi st\u0159elami, st\u00edhac\u00edmi letouny, ponorkami a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm doprovodem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee by USA mohly vybudovat s\u00ed\u0165 region\u00e1ln\u00edch st\u00e1t\u016f, aby na \u010c\u00ednu uvalily energetickou kontrolu a obchodn\u00ed embargo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Na rozd\u00edl od \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Ruska, kter\u00e9 nejsou zapojeny do kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f, je \u010c\u00edna nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou velmoc\u00ed sv\u011bta a m\u016f\u017ee podniknout odvetn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by mnohem v\u00edce po\u0161kodila kohokoli, kdo se na sankc\u00edch pod\u00edl\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Selsk\u00fd rozum n\u00e1m \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee sousedn\u00ed zem\u011b budou jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed ochotny ob\u011btovat sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed kv\u016fli hegemonii USA nebo tchajwansk\u00e9 \u201edemokracii\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Vysoce financializovan\u00e9 a na slu\u017eby orientovan\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed ekonomiky se samy o sob\u011b spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce, v nich\u017e dominuje \u010c\u00edna.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fapln\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho odd\u011blen\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho v\u00e1lkou se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomika zhrout\u00ed, ale vnitropolitick\u00e9 dopady jsou asymetrick\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00e9 kapacity, p\u0159\u00edstup k surovin\u00e1m (prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm pozemn\u00edch tras z Ruska a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie) a infrastrukturu t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, aby se mohla p\u0159eorientovat na v\u00e1le\u010dnou ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">USA a Z\u00e1pad, kter\u00e9 po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed outsourcovaly svou v\u00fdrobn\u00ed z\u00e1kladnu, by \u010delily okam\u017eit\u00e9mu, katastrofick\u00e9mu nedostatku v\u0161eho od z\u00e1kladn\u00edch l\u00e9k\u016f a elektroniky a\u017e po kritick\u00e9 miner\u00e1ly pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 pro v\u00fdrobu zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pokud by vypukla v\u00e1lka, \u010c\u00edna nemus\u00ed k v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00e1d\u011bt glob\u00e1ln\u00ed moc; sta\u010d\u00ed j\u00ed kontrolovat omezen\u00fd \u00fasek mo\u0159e p\u0159\u00edmo u vlastn\u00edch dve\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u00edky sv\u00e9 obrovsk\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdhod\u011b, geografick\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti a absolutn\u00ed politick\u00e9 odhodlanosti m\u00e1 \u010c\u00edna struktur\u00e1ln\u00ed trumfy, kter\u00fdm se USA jednodu\u0161e nemohou rovnat.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span dir=\"auto\">Zaru\u010den\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed americk\u00e9 vlasti \u010din\u00ed z jadern\u00e9ho vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e1zdnou a sebevra\u017eednou hrozbu<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Colby a Pentagon si pln\u011b uv\u011bdomuj\u00ed realitu, kterou jsem pr\u00e1v\u011b popsal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Velmi dob\u0159e v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee USA nemaj\u00ed \u0161anci vyhr\u00e1t konven\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To vedlo k \u0161okuj\u00edc\u00edmu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9mu ozn\u00e1men\u00ed, \u017ee Pentagon reviduje svou jadernou doktr\u00ednu, aby sn\u00ed\u017eil prahovou hodnotu pro pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zde se pln\u011b vyjas\u0148uje zdrav\u00fd rozum um\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00ed\u0161e \u2013 nen\u00ed to jen \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed, je to sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Trumpov\u00fdmi slovy by USA byly zcela \u201evymaz\u00e1ny\u201c, pokud by se odv\u00e1\u017eily zah\u00e1jit prvn\u00ed jadern\u00fd \u00fader.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Proto\u017ee \u010c\u00edna disponuje absolutn\u00ed schopnost\u00ed \u201edruh\u00e9ho \u00faderu\u201c, proti kter\u00e9 se USA nemohou br\u00e1nit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd arzen\u00e1l obsahuje obvyklou jadernou tri\u00e1du pro proti\u00fadery \u2013 mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely (ICBM) s jadern\u00fdmi hlavicemi, odpalovan\u00e9 ze zem\u011b, vzduchu a ponorek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">D\u00e1le existuje unik\u00e1tn\u00ed platforma pro jadern\u00fd \u00fatok, kterou pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 pouze \u010c\u00edna a proti kter\u00e9 neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 obrana.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto je\u00a0<\/span><strong><span dir=\"auto\">syst\u00e9m frak\u010dn\u00edho orbit\u00e1ln\u00edho bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed (FOBS)<\/span><\/strong><span dir=\"auto\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Na rozd\u00edl od konven\u010dn\u00edch mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00edch balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el, kter\u00e9 sleduj\u00ed pevnou, siln\u011b zak\u0159ivenou parabolickou trajektorii, platforma FOBS umis\u0165uje jadernou hlavici na n\u00edzkou ob\u011b\u017enou dr\u00e1hu Zem\u011b (LEO).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">To mu umo\u017e\u0148uje obeplout zem\u011bkouli \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159es ji\u017en\u00ed p\u00f3l \u2013 ne\u017e bude vy\u0159azen z ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy, a obej\u00edt pevn\u00e9, severn\u011b orientovan\u00e9 radarov\u00e9 instalace v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed USA z jak\u00e9hokoli sm\u011bru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Proto\u017ee se FOBS nach\u00e1z\u00ed na do\u010dasn\u00e9 ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1ze, p\u0159esn\u00fd c\u00edl z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 protivn\u00edk\u016fm nezn\u00e1m\u00fd, dokud nejsou odp\u00e1leny brzdn\u00e9 st\u0159ely, kter\u00e9 by vy\u0159adily hlavici z ob\u011b\u017en\u00e9 dr\u00e1hy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Platforma FOBS je spojena s hypersonick\u00fdm kluz\u00e1kem (HGV), kter\u00fd let\u00ed rychlost\u00ed Mach 20 a\u017e Mach 25 (p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 15 000 a\u017e 17 500 mph) a je p\u0159ed n\u00e1razem extr\u00e9mn\u011b obratn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Toto je v sou\u010dasnosti nejrychlej\u0161\u00ed metoda pro nasazen\u00ed raket.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 obrana proti jadern\u00e9mu \u00faderu syst\u00e9mem FOBS sp\u0159a\u017een\u00fdm s vysoce v\u00fdkonn\u00fdm plavidlem. Tato ni\u010div\u00e1 s\u00edla nenech\u00e1v\u00e1 nikoho na pochyb\u00e1ch, \u017ee odvetn\u00fd \u00fader by byl zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zaru\u010duje, \u017ee i kdyby jen nepatrn\u00fd zlomek \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch sil p\u0159e\u017eil prvn\u00ed \u00fader, tyto zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed hlavice by obe\u0161ly americkou obranu a zni\u010dily sv\u00e9 c\u00edle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Nejedn\u00e1 se o teoretickou zbra\u0148 jako \u201eZlat\u00e1 kopule\u201c. \u010c\u00edna syst\u00e9m FOBS ji\u017e testovala v l\u00e9t\u011b 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Kdy\u017e o startu v \u0159\u00edjnu 2021 informoval den\u00edk Financial Times, p\u0159ekvapilo to americkou zpravodajskou slu\u017ebu a p\u0159im\u011blo Pentagon k tomu, aby ud\u00e1lost p\u0159irovnal k modern\u00edmu \u201emomentu Sputniku\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee USA v posledn\u00edch letech za\u017eily mnoho \u201emoment\u016f Sputniku\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">Pamatujete si na spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed DeepSeeku v lednu 2025? Nebo na objeven\u00ed dvou \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch prototyp\u016f st\u00edha\u010dek 6. generace 26. prosince 2024?<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span dir=\"auto\">\u010clov\u011bk se pt\u00e1, kolik \u201esputnikov\u00fdch moment\u016f\u201c je pot\u0159eba k tomu, aby si psychotick\u00e1, um\u00edraj\u00edc\u00ed \u0159\u00ed\u0161e uv\u011bdomila, \u017ee by mo\u017en\u00e1 bylo lep\u0161\u00ed opustit iluzi ovl\u00e1dnut\u00ed sv\u011bta a d\u00e1t m\u00edru \u0161anci.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/huabinoliver.substack.com\/p\/what-now-after-losing-the-iran-war\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span dir=\"auto\">Zdroj<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jadern\u00e9 hrozby Elbridge Colbyho v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b jdou daleko za hranice psych\u00f3zy Dobr\u00fd kamar\u00e1d na Substacku&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":92141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,1652,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114248"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114248\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}