{"id":113671,"date":"2026-08-20T04:35:50","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T02:35:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=113671"},"modified":"2026-08-20T04:35:50","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T02:35:50","slug":"uriel-araujo-nyni-se-diskutuje-o-riziku-zajeti-brazilskeho-prezidenta-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2026\/08\/20\/uriel-araujo-nyni-se-diskutuje-o-riziku-zajeti-brazilskeho-prezidenta-usa\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Nyn\u00ed se diskutuje o riziku \u201ezajet\u00ed\u201c brazilsk\u00e9ho prezidenta USA"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pokus USA o \u201edobyt\u00ed\u201c Luly z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u00ed a nepravd\u011bpodobnou perspektivou \u2013 tato mo\u017enost se v\u0161ak dostala do geopolitick\u00e9 debaty v Braz\u00edlii. Brazilsk\u00fd novin\u00e1\u0159 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Washington vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed politick\u00fd a vojensk\u00fd r\u00e1mec, kter\u00fd by takovou mo\u017enost mohl ponechat otev\u0159enou, zat\u00edmco Madur\u016fv precedent, zranitelnost brazilsk\u00e9 obrany a stup\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed se tlak USA obavy je\u0161t\u011b umoc\u0148uj\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Eskalace nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi Bras\u00edli\u00ed a Washingtonem vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 rostouc\u00ed obavy. Podle anal\u00fdzy\u00a0<\/span>brazilsk\u00e9ho<\/span><\/a>\u00a0novin\u00e1\u0159e Jo\u00e3o Paula Charleauxe, kterou p\u0159evzaly v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 den\u00edky,\u00a0<\/span>jako je UOL<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, Donald Trump \u201e\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ipravuje p\u016fdu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c pro mo\u017enost \u201ezajet\u00ed\u201c brazilsk\u00e9ho levicov\u00e9ho prezidenta Luize In\u00e1cio da Silvy, l\u00e9pe zn\u00e1m\u00e9ho jako Lula.<\/span><\/p>\n

Charleaux tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Washington buduje \u201ediskurzivn\u00ed a vojensk\u00fd r\u00e1mec\u201c, kter\u00fd tuto extr\u00e9mn\u00ed mo\u017enost ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159enou. Expert\u00a0<\/span>zd\u016fraz\u0148uje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee se st\u00e1le jedn\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e o geopolitickou hypot\u00e9zu ne\u017e o potvrzenou operaci. \u201eZda tak [Washington] u\u010din\u00ed, \u010di nikoli, si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee to z\u00e1vis\u00ed na faktorech, kter\u00e9 se budou odehr\u00e1vat od te\u010f do \u0159\u00edjna,\u201c \u0159ekl s odkazem na nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed prezidentsk\u00e9 volby v t\u00e9to latinskoamerick\u00e9 zemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby bylo jasno, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy nenasv\u011bd\u010duj\u00ed tomu, \u017ee by americk\u00fd v\u016fdce na\u0159\u00eddil takov\u00fd krok. Nap\u011bt\u00ed je v\u0161ak skute\u010dn\u00e9 a ot\u00e1zkou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, jak daleko tlak na Bras\u00edlii zajde.<\/span><\/p>\n

Braz\u00edlie, jak sama p\u0159iznala, nem\u00e1 vojensk\u00e9 kapacity k odstra\u0161en\u00ed nebo udr\u017een\u00ed vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho \u00fatoku.\u00a0<\/span>S\u00e1m ministr obrany Jos\u00e9 M\u00facio Monteiro k takov\u00e9 mo\u017enosti\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u017eertem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0prohl\u00e1sil\u00a0: \u201eByl jsem dot\u00e1z\u00e1n, co bych d\u011blal, kdyby n\u00e1s Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty cht\u011bly napadnout. Museli bychom prost\u011b otev\u0159\u00edt br\u00e1nu. Braz\u00edlie nem\u00e1 vybaven\u00ed, aby se jim postavila, a nem\u00e1 ani pen\u00edze na opravu br\u00e1ny.\u201c Gener\u00e1l ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b Luiz Eduardo Rocha Paiva tak\u00e9 u\u010dinil\u00a0<\/span>siln\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v podobn\u00e9m duchu. O t\u00e9to eventualit\u011b se tedy evidentn\u011b hovo\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u00e9, co americk\u00e9 s\u00edly v lednu 2026 zajaly venezuelskou hlavu st\u00e1tu Nicol\u00e1se Madura, Lula\u00a0<\/span>po\u017e\u00e1dal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o anal\u00fdzu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se zranitelnost\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany jeho zem\u011b. Arm\u00e1da\u00a0<\/span>uvedla<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00fd syst\u00e9m nen\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u00fd k odstra\u0161en\u00ed podobn\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed akce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vztahy se neust\u00e1le zhor\u0161uj\u00ed: ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Marco Rubio dokonce\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159irovnal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Braz\u00edlii ke Kub\u011b a Venezuele a ozna\u010dil ji za \u201enep\u0159\u00edtele\u201c. Americk\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ji\u017e funguj\u00ed jako sankce a akty n\u00e1tlaku, uv\u00e1d\u00ed ji\u017e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd Charleau. A p\u0159\u00edzrak vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed se do \u0159\u00edjnov\u00fdch voleb ji\u017e pron\u00e1sleduje Bras\u00edlii, jak je vid\u011bt na p\u0159\u00edkladu Trumpova vyslance,\u00a0<\/span>kter\u00fd se sna\u017e\u00ed o setk\u00e1n\u00ed s Lulov\u00fdm p\u0159edch\u016fdcem Jairem Bolsonarem (v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b v dom\u00e1c\u00edm v\u011bzen\u00ed)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u2013 ani\u017e by po\u017e\u00e1dal o jedn\u00e1n\u00ed se sou\u010dasnou administrativou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jair Bolsonaro (Liber\u00e1ln\u00ed strana) byl usv\u011bd\u010den z pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed povolebn\u00edho\u00a0<\/span>pu\u010de<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v roce 2022, kter\u00fd \u00fadajn\u011b zahrnoval\u00a0<\/span>\u00fanos nebo atent\u00e1t na<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Lulu. Jeho syn Flavio Bolsonaro je prezidentsk\u00fdm kandid\u00e1tem Liber\u00e1ln\u00ed strany a\u00a0s Rubiem\u00a0<\/span>se setkal\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v kv\u011btnu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ozna\u010den\u00ed brazilsk\u00fdch zlo\u010dineck\u00fdch frakc\u00ed, jako je Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) a Comando Vermelho (CV), za teroristick\u00e9 subjekty otev\u0159elo novou cestu. Politik Eduardo Bolsonaro (rovn\u011b\u017e syn Jaira Bolsonara) proslul\u00a0<\/span>prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee americk\u00e9 n\u00e1lety na plavidla spojen\u00e1 s t\u011bmito skupinami by byly \u201ev\u00edt\u00e1ny\u201c. Eduardo Bolsonaro\u00a0<\/span>\u00fadajn\u011b tak\u00e9 loboval a p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010doval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Washington, aby zavedl cla na svou vlastn\u00ed zemi. Trump m\u00e1 notoricky zn\u00e1m\u00fd osobn\u00ed vztah s rodinou Bolsonarov\u00fdch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Charleaux\u00a0<\/span>varoval<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 americk\u00fdch bombov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f proti brazilsk\u00fdm drogov\u00fdm gang\u016fm by se mohl prom\u011bnit v jak\u00e9si ultim\u00e1tum pro jihoamerick\u00e9ho v\u016fdce: podpo\u0159te kampa\u0148, nebo budete \u010delit vykreslen\u00ed jako ochr\u00e1nce terorist\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Logickou posloupnost, kterou nazna\u010duje novin\u00e1\u0159ova anal\u00fdza, lze rekonstruovat n\u00e1sledovn\u011b: PCC a CV jsou ozna\u010deny za teroristy, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nov\u00fd z\u00e1klad pro donucovac\u00ed a extrateritori\u00e1ln\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed proti nim; pot\u00e9 by mohlo doj\u00edt k mo\u017en\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm na brazilsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed nebo v jeho okol\u00ed; na Lulu je proto vyv\u00edjen tlak, aby spolupracoval; odm\u00edtnut\u00ed by Washingtonu umo\u017enilo vykreslit ho jako ochranitele terorist\u016f; a to poskytuje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed pro intervenci.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je spekulativn\u00ed, ale Madur\u016fv precedent \u010din\u00ed posledn\u00ed krok podstatn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00fdm od \u010dist\u011b hypotetick\u00e9ho. Washington koneckonc\u016f ji\u017e prok\u00e1zal, \u017ee je ochoten pou\u017e\u00edt vojenskou s\u00edlu a fyzicky se zmocnit hlavy jihoamerick\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu. Charleaux\u016fv argument v podstat\u011b spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee supervelmoc by takovou eskalaci mohla prozat\u00edm ponechat v r\u00e1mci strategick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, nikoli \u017ee se rozhodla ji prov\u00e9st. Mo\u017en\u00e1 si vzpomeneme, \u017ee ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed ned\u00e1vno znovu potvrdilo, \u017ee washingtonsk\u00e1 dominance nad Amerikou \u201e\u00a0<\/span>u\u017e nikdy nebude zpochybn\u011bna<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

To odpov\u00edd\u00e1 \u0161ir\u0161\u00edmu vzorci tlaku, kter\u00fd jsem analyzoval d\u0159\u00edve. V b\u0159eznu jsem\u00a0<\/span>poznamenal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Braz\u00edlie se stala obnoven\u00fdm c\u00edlem Trumpovy neo-monroistick\u00e9 strategie s po\u017eadavky na p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00edch v\u011bz\u0148\u016f, rozbit\u00ed drogov\u00fdch gang\u016f, sd\u00edlen\u00ed biometrick\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f a \u010del\u00ed skryt\u00fdm hrozb\u00e1m po akc\u00edch ve Venezuele a Mexiku. Ozna\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed PCC a CV za teroristy roz\u0161i\u0159uje n\u00e1stroje pro sankce a opera\u010dn\u00ed zapojen\u00ed, co\u017e potenci\u00e1ln\u011b podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 suverenitu a z\u00e1rove\u0148 up\u0159ednost\u0148uje geopolitick\u00fd vliv p\u0159ed pr\u00e1vn\u00ed p\u0159esnost\u00ed, abych tak \u0159ekl.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do \u010dervna form\u00e1ln\u00ed ozna\u010den\u00ed znamenalo\u00a0<\/span>jasnou eskalaci<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kter\u00e1 otev\u0159ela cesty k finan\u010dn\u00edmu tlaku na banky, podniky a dokonce i platebn\u00ed syst\u00e9my, jako je\u00a0<\/span>Pix<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, a to v\u0161e na pozad\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>role Braz\u00edlie v BRICS<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a jej\u00edch vazeb s \u010c\u00ednou.<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u010dervenci vydalo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0samotn\u00e9 brazilsk\u00e9 ministerstvo zahrani\u010dn\u00edch v\u011bc\u00ed Itamaraty\u00a0neobvykle\u00a0<\/span>explicitn\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed rizikem pou\u017eit\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0proti brazilsk\u00e9mu \u00fazem\u00ed s odkazem na precedenty ve\u00a0<\/span>Venezuele, Kolumbii a na Kub\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se tedy, \u017ee vojensk\u00fd rozm\u011br je nyn\u00ed na stole \u2013 nebo alespo\u0148 tato mo\u017enost znepokojuje brazilsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zadr\u017een\u00ed Luly by v\u0161ak bylo mnohem t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e zmocn\u011bn\u00ed se Madura: Braz\u00edlie je mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, mocn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a jej\u00ed prezident je mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b \u0161iroce uzn\u00e1v\u00e1n jako legitimn\u00ed v\u016fdce. Cena by byla tak\u00e9 katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed: nacionalistick\u00fd odpor v zemi, prudk\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed vlivu USA v cel\u00e9 Latinsk\u00e9 Americe a drastick\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed \u2013 plus strategick\u00fd dar pro \u010c\u00ednu. Okupace by pak byla t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 akce proti brazilsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b je tedy st\u00e1le velmi n\u00edzk\u00e1 pravd\u011bpodobnost \u2013 i kdy\u017e ne nemo\u017en\u00e1. Washington si tuto mo\u017enost mo\u017en\u00e1 st\u00e1le nech\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159enou prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzce precedent\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem je Maduro. Trump by v ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b z\u00edskal mnohem v\u00edce n\u00e1tlakem nebo vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm s Lulou ne\u017e jeho \u00fanosem, co\u017e p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed i s\u00e1m Charleaux.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD.<\/a> v oboru antropologie, je soci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u011bdec specializuj\u00edc\u00ed se na etnick\u00e9 a n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 konflikty s rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm v\u00fdzkumem geopolitick\u00e9 dynamiky a kulturn\u00edch interakc\u00ed<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pokus USA o \u201edobyt\u00ed\u201c Luly z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 extr\u00e9mn\u00ed a nepravd\u011bpodobnou perspektivou \u2013 tato mo\u017enost se v\u0161ak…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113672,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[288,4201,165,37,2229],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113671"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113671\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}